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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 1327936 times)
nirvana
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« Reply #22125 on: November 21, 2019, 05:31:09 PM »

https://twitter.com/i/status/1197456672941387779

great work from the lib dem press office

clueless

That's terrible, really have close to zero respect for the Lib dems on any level at all. I think half the labour party has gone a bit mad but even then, I still respect their position to some kind of degree
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nirvana
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« Reply #22126 on: November 21, 2019, 05:49:21 PM »

this is interesting, accepting that individual constituency polling is unreliable

@britainelects
Great Grimsby, constituency voting intention:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

via @Survation
, 14 - 15 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017

Gt Grimsby is currently Labour and only the Conservatives 45th top target

If this is at all applicable across leave voting Northern areas...

probably worse than it looks for Labour nationally. Their vote is being condensed into safe remain seats in the cities where it has to battle Lib Dem and Green because the Remain side (or the we are mostly remain but our leader wants to leave side in Labour's case) haven't partnerred up.

The Lib Dems should have stood aside all over the country rather than pretending they have any worthwhile role to play in anything. A bit like the Brexit party in terms of being a protest movement.

As soon as their position had dragged Labour into second ref territory, they should have accepted they had no further purpose...in the national interest of course
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« Reply #22127 on: November 21, 2019, 09:02:34 PM »

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.
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« Reply #22128 on: November 21, 2019, 09:46:23 PM »

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

Interesting this. I think it will change things but negatively for Labour. Gonna be really interesting watching the results on the 13th..mildly excited by the prospect.
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« Reply #22129 on: November 21, 2019, 11:01:34 PM »

Watching Newsnight and the Tories have not made anyone available to have a free shot at hurling bricks through the Labour manifesto window.

They obviously saw that Barry Gardiner was on for Labour and thought they didn’t need to bother.

In the realms of "its not happening but what if..." I do sometimes think where this election would be if Starmer or Cooper or Benn or (name someone not hated by the broader populace) was LOTO

There’d be no election. The Tories wouldn’t have had the lurch to the right and driven away the moderates in the party as they know they would have needed them to fight for the centre ground.

With Corbyn as leader, they knew that any dissatisfied moderate Tory voters would only go so far as the Lib Dems so the rump of Labour/Tory marginals would be safe.
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« Reply #22130 on: November 22, 2019, 01:36:11 AM »

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

There is a widely accepted belief that successful change comes through evolution not revolution.

Corbyn is certainly going for the revolution route. The list of promises is long and financially pretty scary.

I think the public will see them as a fantasy wish list. It plays perfectly into the narrative that Labour can’t be trusted with the economy.






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« Reply #22131 on: November 22, 2019, 09:38:55 AM »

The non-debate of the non-leaders. New post on Grey'sBrexit Blog reviewing the latest Brexit developments through the lens of the Corbyn-Johnson TV debate.

The awful truth is that we did actually hear all they have to say about Brexit.

Just up, now: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-no
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« Reply #22132 on: November 22, 2019, 09:49:57 AM »

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

I agree, it really is something else.
The worst bit is, I think he actually believe's he can deliver it.

The one that annoys me the most is getting rid of student debt and tuition fees.
The system works pretty fairly really why would you scrap it, other than to buy student votes.

I think you are going to have a pretty good sweat Aaron, I reckon they will be in the 185-205 range so it should be an exciting night for your investments!



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« Reply #22133 on: November 22, 2019, 10:18:58 AM »

The non-debate of the non-leaders. New post on Grey'sBrexit Blog reviewing the latest Brexit developments through the lens of the Corbyn-Johnson TV debate.

The awful truth is that we did actually hear all they have to say about Brexit.

Just up, now: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-no

fixed the link: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-non-debate-of-non-leaders.html

also: https://www.thetorymanifesto.com/
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« Reply #22134 on: November 22, 2019, 10:26:38 AM »

Did anyone watch this last night?

Excellent clip if you want to just ponder political messaging, people’s perceptions of wealth and just stubborn pig-headedness!

https://twitter.com/L__Macfarlane/status/1197656952240791562
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« Reply #22135 on: November 22, 2019, 10:30:50 AM »

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

There is a widely accepted belief that successful change comes through evolution not revolution.

Corbyn is certainly going for the revolution route. The list of promises is long and financially pretty scary.

I think the public will see them as a fantasy wish list. It plays perfectly into the narrative that Labour can’t be trusted with the economy.


Judging by the reaction to it from the audience on Question Time last night, I sense the latter is the more accurate of these two takes on the manifesto.  Ultimately I think people over-estimate the impact of manifesto launches in general, and very few of the people who vote will actually read any of them.

I'm intrigued as to whether the 'costings' in this one are as tenuous as the GE17 version, where they analysed a small proportion of their plans, and shunted everything else into 'capital spend'.  Given that the basic policy is 'if we don't like it, nationalise it' I suspect it will be more of the same.

There's some interesting analysis of Labour's wording around the referendum option they're offering, as to whether it would require a 'super-majority' of 65% for Remain to prevail.  Suggestions that this has come from a shadow cabinet source, and Barry Gardiner (who else) has said similar in previous interviews.  I haven't seen the question asked outright of anyone post-manifesto launch but I hope that someone asks it.  Anything other than a straight 'yes' in response would be telling.

Manifesto-wise, Labour's best hope is that the Tory manifesto launch is as disastrous as the last one.  It was that, rather than anything in the Labour one, that had the most telling impact on the GE17 election.
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« Reply #22136 on: November 22, 2019, 10:31:26 AM »

Did anyone watch this last night?

Excellent clip if you want to just ponder political messaging, people’s perceptions of wealth and just stubborn pig-headedness!

https://twitter.com/L__Macfarlane/status/1197656952240791562

I've seen the clip. Whole thing is ridiculous. Did have the typical frothing at the mouth QT audience member look.

Thought it was a good advert for Labour on the whole.
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« Reply #22137 on: November 22, 2019, 10:35:13 AM »

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

There is a widely accepted belief that successful change comes through evolution not revolution.

Corbyn is certainly going for the revolution route. The list of promises is long and financially pretty scary.

I think the public will see them as a fantasy wish list. It plays perfectly into the narrative that Labour can’t be trusted with the economy.


Judging by the reaction to it from the audience on Question Time last night, I sense the latter is the more accurate of these two takes on the manifesto.  Ultimately I think people over-estimate the impact of manifesto launches in general, and very few of the people who vote will actually read any of them.

I'm intrigued as to whether the 'costings' in this one are as tenuous as the GE17 version, where they analysed a small proportion of their plans, and shunted everything else into 'capital spend'.  Given that the basic policy is 'if we don't like it, nationalise it' I suspect it will be more of the same.

There's some interesting analysis of Labour's wording around the referendum option they're offering, as to whether it would require a 'super-majority' of 65% for Remain to prevail.  Suggestions that this has come from a shadow cabinet source, and Barry Gardiner (who else) has said similar in previous interviews.  I haven't seen the question asked outright of anyone post-manifesto launch but I hope that someone asks it.  Anything other than a straight 'yes' in response would be telling.

Manifesto-wise, Labour's best hope is that the Tory manifesto launch is as disastrous as the last one.  It was that, rather than anything in the Labour one, that had the most telling impact on the GE17 election.

rightly or wrongly, the 2008-09 financial crash apparently still comes up on the doorstep when Labour and economics comes up.

Magic Grandpa's manifesto has the feel, which possibly may not be fair, of something that is playing to his core vote to shore up a position post election than something that will win a majority and win over the marginal voter

Yes its fully costed but a) raising those funds not easy (tax evasion etc) and b) the sums are eye-watering. 
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« Reply #22138 on: November 22, 2019, 10:38:24 AM »

An analysis of the LD attempt

Britain’s Lib Dems unveil a manifesto to counter their polling squeeze

Strict fiscal rules to tempt Tory voters, big spending to woo Labourites

https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/11/21/britains-lib-dems-unveil-a-manifesto-to-counter-their-polling-squeeze
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« Reply #22139 on: November 22, 2019, 11:09:54 AM »

Did anyone watch this last night?

Excellent clip if you want to just ponder political messaging, people’s perceptions of wealth and just stubborn pig-headedness!

https://twitter.com/L__Macfarlane/status/1197656952240791562

I've seen the clip. Whole thing is ridiculous. Did have the typical frothing at the mouth QT audience member look.

Thought it was a good advert for Labour on the whole.

I think Richard Burgon did pretty well here.  There is a temptation to question yourself when somebody is so adamant that you are wrong.  I wish he would have just said "yes if you earn over 80k you will pay extra tax" rather than pretend it was billionaires and some unamed others who aren't there that got hit. 

He could be making the mistake of confusing the wealthiest 5% with the top 5% of earners, as many do.  There is a pretty good chance that he isn't in the wealthiest 5%, though 50% might be a stretch...     
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