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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180130 times)
aaron1867
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« Reply #22380 on: December 07, 2019, 02:00:13 PM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament
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Jon MW
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« Reply #22381 on: December 07, 2019, 04:21:19 PM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #22382 on: December 07, 2019, 04:28:33 PM »

To add - just checked a random yougov voting intention poll from a few weeks ago; this is the unweighted age sample sizes.

18-24  154
25-49  708
50-64  417
65+    391

Obviously you're not going to get a perfectly proportioned sample for every demographic, but that's where you'd hope the weighting is done carefully.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #22383 on: December 07, 2019, 04:37:32 PM »

Gulp

Former Conservative Party Chairman, Chris Patten on Boris Johnson:

“If the Prime Minister tells the truth it's probably by accident. He's lied his way through life. He's lied his way through politics. He would be an extraordinarily bad choice."
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« Reply #22384 on: December 07, 2019, 04:38:46 PM »

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 42% (=)
LAB: 36% (+4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
BXP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 2-5 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-3 Dec.

Highest labour result since April
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« Reply #22385 on: December 07, 2019, 06:33:24 PM »

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 42% (=)
LAB: 36% (+4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
BXP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 2-5 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-3 Dec.

Highest labour result since April


your 5/2 tip on "no majority" is still available.

6/7% lead is said to be potential "no majority" territory.
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« Reply #22386 on: December 07, 2019, 06:37:15 PM »

 
Boris v Andrew Neil Sophie Ridge, tomorrow morning.
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aaron1867
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« Reply #22387 on: December 07, 2019, 06:47:29 PM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled
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« Reply #22388 on: December 07, 2019, 06:52:20 PM »

The problem with this polling is that it can’t successfully get any idea of the electorate, considering many factors

Voter reg, tactical vote, swing to BXP

For Labour to be within 7/8 points and to take into consideration the above, I’d say it’s looking a lot better for labour than you’d ever thought, percentage chance of a hung parliament, surely more than 30%?

Sadly though, media coverage is saying different. Lots of folk moving from Labour and “I’ll never vote Corbyn”, heard nothing of people saying they’re moving to labour 🤷‍♂️
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« Reply #22389 on: December 07, 2019, 08:31:56 PM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2019, 08:34:52 PM by Jon MW » Logged

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« Reply #22390 on: December 07, 2019, 09:26:50 PM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.

I see it across twitter of who they are polling, the results are usually similar, BUT polls aren’t exactly the same. Some have labour on 29%, some have them 35% and as I recall the polls suggested May was on average 8 points ahead and she didn’t get a majority

I am however probably, hoping
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« Reply #22391 on: December 07, 2019, 11:21:53 PM »

Twitter 'polls' are not polls and should be ignored.

Pollsters are well aware they poll age groups in different ratios and that's why demographic poll weighting is a thing.
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aaron1867
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« Reply #22392 on: December 07, 2019, 11:25:34 PM »

Twitter 'polls' are not polls and should be ignored.

Pollsters are well aware they poll age groups in different ratios and that's why demographic poll weighting is a thing.

I’m talking about polls taken out by pollsters and then discussed by Twitter.

Demographic is important and who won that debate isn’t that important, BUT look at who was polled, it’s a joke. Leading to a suggestion Corbyn won.

As everyone does seem to report, these polls are usually wrong.

At 10pm I’m Thursday , I think we Willis get  good indication.

I’m certainly not seeing a huge majority for Tories
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Jon MW
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« Reply #22393 on: December 08, 2019, 12:22:27 AM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.

I see it across twitter of who they are polling,...

Do you mean people discussing the raw data and showing it's substantially disproportionate (like the snap poll on the debate)?

Or do you mean people saying - I support Labour, and they've never asked me - kind of discussion?
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #22394 on: December 08, 2019, 12:25:41 AM »

...

As everyone does seem to report, these polls are usually wrong.

At 10pm I’m Thursday , I think we Willis get  good indication.

I’m certainly not seeing a huge majority for Tories

I agree  I don't think a huge majority for the Tories - and I think the polling generally does as well.

But I think the post war average for opinion polls is within about 2%; most of the polls within the last 10 years have been within 5%; so worse than historically but I'd suggest really not incredibly terrible.

When it's a close race then being an extra couple of per cent off really makes a substantial difference to the outcome is the issue.
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