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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 1327907 times)
Jon MW
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« Reply #22410 on: December 07, 2019, 08:31:56 PM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2019, 08:34:52 PM by Jon MW » Logged

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« Reply #22411 on: December 07, 2019, 09:26:50 PM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.

I see it across twitter of who they are polling, the results are usually similar, BUT polls aren’t exactly the same. Some have labour on 29%, some have them 35% and as I recall the polls suggested May was on average 8 points ahead and she didn’t get a majority

I am however probably, hoping
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« Reply #22412 on: December 07, 2019, 11:21:53 PM »

Twitter 'polls' are not polls and should be ignored.

Pollsters are well aware they poll age groups in different ratios and that's why demographic poll weighting is a thing.
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« Reply #22413 on: December 07, 2019, 11:25:34 PM »

Twitter 'polls' are not polls and should be ignored.

Pollsters are well aware they poll age groups in different ratios and that's why demographic poll weighting is a thing.

I’m talking about polls taken out by pollsters and then discussed by Twitter.

Demographic is important and who won that debate isn’t that important, BUT look at who was polled, it’s a joke. Leading to a suggestion Corbyn won.

As everyone does seem to report, these polls are usually wrong.

At 10pm I’m Thursday , I think we Willis get  good indication.

I’m certainly not seeing a huge majority for Tories
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« Reply #22414 on: December 08, 2019, 12:22:27 AM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.

I see it across twitter of who they are polling,...

Do you mean people discussing the raw data and showing it's substantially disproportionate (like the snap poll on the debate)?

Or do you mean people saying - I support Labour, and they've never asked me - kind of discussion?
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« Reply #22415 on: December 08, 2019, 12:25:41 AM »

...

As everyone does seem to report, these polls are usually wrong.

At 10pm I’m Thursday , I think we Willis get  good indication.

I’m certainly not seeing a huge majority for Tories

I agree  I don't think a huge majority for the Tories - and I think the polling generally does as well.

But I think the post war average for opinion polls is within about 2%; most of the polls within the last 10 years have been within 5%; so worse than historically but I'd suggest really not incredibly terrible.

When it's a close race then being an extra couple of per cent off really makes a substantial difference to the outcome is the issue.
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« Reply #22416 on: December 08, 2019, 01:33:48 AM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.

I see it across twitter of who they are polling,...

Do you mean people discussing the raw data and showing it's substantially disproportionate (like the snap poll on the debate)?

Or do you mean people saying - I support Labour, and they've never asked me - kind of discussion?

I probably mean a bit of both.

In my opinion Corbyn won that debate, not because I’m voting for his party, but because I thought he was clearer and got more of audience reaction. Folk go on about the catch Tory slogan of “get Brexit done”, but when Boris had a slam dunk for this, he got very minimal response.

Polls are important, they give us indication of what the nation are thinking. But it has to be fair. You can’t go out and poll 12 x the number of 18-24’s. Go and represent the nation if 10% are 18-24 and your sample is 1000, go and ask 100.

As for Twitter, I think it’s a lot more useful than other resources. I’ve seen lots of reliable tweets in which they bang on about how false these polls have been since 2015 elections. Then how folk mention the ages they ask or the fact they don’t ask them if they vote Labour.

These polls will never ever be able to take into consideration so many factors.

If a high majority of voters are switched on tactically, it’ll be a hung parliament, but nobody knows

If Labour and LD’s had worked together in pulling candidates out, Tories would never get a majority.

But as Bookies and experts see it, they say it’s a 70% chance of a Tory majority
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« Reply #22417 on: December 08, 2019, 08:48:08 PM »

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 42% (=)
LAB: 36% (+4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
BXP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 2-5 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-3 Dec.

Highest labour result since April


your 5/2 tip on "no majority" is still available.

6/7% lead is said to be potential "no majority" territory.

Weekend polls seems to be steady on about a 10 pt lead.

Some 10/3 now available!
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« Reply #22418 on: December 08, 2019, 09:38:29 PM »

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1201799051227934720?s=09

Quite a few of these videos. Quite funny imo
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« Reply #22419 on: December 09, 2019, 02:48:57 PM »

1.2m views already

ITV reporter joe pike shows Boris Johnson a picture of the sick 4 year old forced to lie on coats on the floor of A&E.

Johnson refuses to look & pockets the phone.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204036343770300416?s=20

this could be a big one
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« Reply #22420 on: December 09, 2019, 03:07:58 PM »

Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
3m
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 36% (+1)
LDEM: 12% (-1)
BREX: 3% (-)

via @ICMResearch
, 06 - 09 Dec
Chgs. w/ 02 Dec


some polls still saying 10%+

3 days to go

will there be lots of tactical voting?

is the red wall going to collapse?

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« Reply #22421 on: December 09, 2019, 03:11:30 PM »

I want to run a small competition

Please post before polls close on Thursday to be eligible

Answer with one number, either

a) size of conservative majority or b) number of seats short of majority (and state which your answer is)

Nearest wins a £25 donation to a charity of their choice (will post screenshot)

In the event of a tie earliest guess wins

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« Reply #22422 on: December 09, 2019, 03:17:20 PM »

5 seats short
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« Reply #22423 on: December 09, 2019, 03:22:23 PM »

A majority of 12
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« Reply #22424 on: December 09, 2019, 03:42:46 PM »

Between 1-4 Dec the Conservatives blasted out 6,749 ads on Facebook. A number made claims that had already been classified by https://fullfact.org as misleading.

What percentage of those ads, would you say, were classified as misleading?
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