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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180696 times)
aaron1867
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« Reply #22395 on: December 08, 2019, 01:33:48 AM »

YouGov getting a beating on Twitter. Numerous polls showing a Tory majority, but showing the age differences of those they’ve polled.

Under 24’s polled 36

Over 65 polled 409

Yes I know there are more over 65’s around, but not at that ratio

A little good news for those hoping for a hung parliament

That was just for the 'who won the debate' snap poll though - so not really related to any of the polls showing a Tory majority.

I’ve seen plenty of stuff about other polls where it looks like it’s not a balanced sample

Plus the 48/52 vote is now unreliable looking at who’ve they’ve polled

The 'who won the debate' was a snap poll of whoever happens to be around and ready to answer - it's obviously nonsense and no better than a random vox pop.

As for the other bit - where? Where is the stuff about polls not having balanced samples?

Because, like with the yougov data, you can generally get the raw data for the polling to have a look at yourself.


EDIT: in terms of your other post, the opinion pollsters are all pretty consistent when they present data. They're pretty much just saying - if this is consistent across the country and equal measure then these would be the results. There are plenty of known unknowns in polling - their isn't generally any better way of addressing them than to just hope they all even out over the whole result.

I see it across twitter of who they are polling,...

Do you mean people discussing the raw data and showing it's substantially disproportionate (like the snap poll on the debate)?

Or do you mean people saying - I support Labour, and they've never asked me - kind of discussion?

I probably mean a bit of both.

In my opinion Corbyn won that debate, not because I’m voting for his party, but because I thought he was clearer and got more of audience reaction. Folk go on about the catch Tory slogan of “get Brexit done”, but when Boris had a slam dunk for this, he got very minimal response.

Polls are important, they give us indication of what the nation are thinking. But it has to be fair. You can’t go out and poll 12 x the number of 18-24’s. Go and represent the nation if 10% are 18-24 and your sample is 1000, go and ask 100.

As for Twitter, I think it’s a lot more useful than other resources. I’ve seen lots of reliable tweets in which they bang on about how false these polls have been since 2015 elections. Then how folk mention the ages they ask or the fact they don’t ask them if they vote Labour.

These polls will never ever be able to take into consideration so many factors.

If a high majority of voters are switched on tactically, it’ll be a hung parliament, but nobody knows

If Labour and LD’s had worked together in pulling candidates out, Tories would never get a majority.

But as Bookies and experts see it, they say it’s a 70% chance of a Tory majority
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« Reply #22396 on: December 08, 2019, 08:48:08 PM »

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 42% (=)
LAB: 36% (+4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
BXP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 2-5 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-3 Dec.

Highest labour result since April


your 5/2 tip on "no majority" is still available.

6/7% lead is said to be potential "no majority" territory.

Weekend polls seems to be steady on about a 10 pt lead.

Some 10/3 now available!
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« Reply #22397 on: December 08, 2019, 09:38:29 PM »

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1201799051227934720?s=09

Quite a few of these videos. Quite funny imo
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« Reply #22398 on: December 09, 2019, 02:48:57 PM »

1.2m views already

ITV reporter joe pike shows Boris Johnson a picture of the sick 4 year old forced to lie on coats on the floor of A&E.

Johnson refuses to look & pockets the phone.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204036343770300416?s=20

this could be a big one
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« Reply #22399 on: December 09, 2019, 03:07:58 PM »

Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
3m
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 36% (+1)
LDEM: 12% (-1)
BREX: 3% (-)

via @ICMResearch
, 06 - 09 Dec
Chgs. w/ 02 Dec


some polls still saying 10%+

3 days to go

will there be lots of tactical voting?

is the red wall going to collapse?

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« Reply #22400 on: December 09, 2019, 03:11:30 PM »

I want to run a small competition

Please post before polls close on Thursday to be eligible

Answer with one number, either

a) size of conservative majority or b) number of seats short of majority (and state which your answer is)

Nearest wins a £25 donation to a charity of their choice (will post screenshot)

In the event of a tie earliest guess wins

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« Reply #22401 on: December 09, 2019, 03:17:20 PM »

5 seats short
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« Reply #22402 on: December 09, 2019, 03:22:23 PM »

A majority of 12
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« Reply #22403 on: December 09, 2019, 03:42:46 PM »

Between 1-4 Dec the Conservatives blasted out 6,749 ads on Facebook. A number made claims that had already been classified by https://fullfact.org as misleading.

What percentage of those ads, would you say, were classified as misleading?
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« Reply #22404 on: December 09, 2019, 03:54:23 PM »

PSA Expert Predictions general election 2019, parliamentary seats (median):

Con: 326
Labour: 231
Liberal Democrat: 23
SNP: 45
Plaid: 4
Brexit: 0
Green: 1
DUP: 8
SDLP: 1
Sinn Fein: 7
UUP: 0
Others: 2

Fieldwork: 20 Nov-2 Dec

#GE2019


their guess for overall majority?

2
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« Reply #22405 on: December 09, 2019, 04:09:32 PM »

1.2m views already

ITV reporter joe pike shows Boris Johnson a picture of the sick 4 year old forced to lie on coats on the floor of A&E.

Johnson refuses to look & pockets the phone.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204036343770300416?s=20

this could be a big one

How difficult ro just acknowledge that looks terrible and sound sincere about wanting to improve the service without veering off into soundbite bollocks. Just a hint of empathy. Too conditioned to look for traps and confrontation.
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« Reply #22406 on: December 09, 2019, 04:12:06 PM »

Between 1-4 Dec the Conservatives blasted out 6,749 ads on Facebook. A number made claims that had already been classified by https://fullfact.org as misleading.

What percentage of those ads, would you say, were classified as misleading?

90%?  Misleading seems a low bar.  Don't most adverts mislead to some extent?  Maybe I am a bit too cynical when looking at adverts if that isn't true.  
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« Reply #22407 on: December 09, 2019, 04:24:19 PM »

1.2m views already

ITV reporter joe pike shows Boris Johnson a picture of the sick 4 year old forced to lie on coats on the floor of A&E.

Johnson refuses to look & pockets the phone.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204036343770300416?s=20

this could be a big one

How difficult ro just acknowledge that looks terrible and sound sincere about wanting to improve the service without veering off into soundbite bollocks. Just a hint of empathy. Too conditioned to look for traps and confrontation.

Meh, it is a trap though.  Surely one bad experience shows nothing on the general state of the NHS?  I accept as a politician he can't really just turn round and say "Fuck off, that is about as relevant as Donald Trump saying climate change is fiction because it is snowing heavily".  I mean if the kid is lying on the floor when he walks around a hospital the done thing would be to express some sympathy with Mrs I am going to use my kid to make a political point. 
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« Reply #22408 on: December 09, 2019, 04:27:27 PM »

1.2m views already

ITV reporter joe pike shows Boris Johnson a picture of the sick 4 year old forced to lie on coats on the floor of A&E.

Johnson refuses to look & pockets the phone.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204036343770300416?s=20

this could be a big one

How difficult ro just acknowledge that looks terrible and sound sincere about wanting to improve the service without veering off into soundbite bollocks. Just a hint of empathy. Too conditioned to look for traps and confrontation.

Meh, it is a trap though.  Surely one bad experience shows nothing on the general state of the NHS?  I accept as a politician he can't really just turn round and say "Fuck off, that is about as relevant as Donald Trump saying climate change is fiction because it is snowing heavily".  I mean if the kid is lying on the floor when he walks around a hospital the done thing would be to express some sympathy with Mrs I am going to use my kid to make a political point. 

it is a trap

2.1m views though....

Andrew Neil's empty chair 7m in a week...
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« Reply #22409 on: December 09, 2019, 04:28:07 PM »

1.2m views already

ITV reporter joe pike shows Boris Johnson a picture of the sick 4 year old forced to lie on coats on the floor of A&E.

Johnson refuses to look & pockets the phone.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204036343770300416?s=20

this could be a big one

How difficult ro just acknowledge that looks terrible and sound sincere about wanting to improve the service without veering off into soundbite bollocks. Just a hint of empathy. Too conditioned to look for traps and confrontation.

Meh, it is a trap though.  Surely one bad experience shows nothing on the general state of the NHS?  I accept as a politician he can't really just turn round and say "Fuck off, that is about as relevant as Donald Trump saying climate change is fiction because it is snowing heavily".  I mean if the kid is lying on the floor when he walks around a hospital the done thing would be to express some sympathy with Mrs I am going to use my kid to make a political point.  

This gives a bit more context from the Yorkshire Post

Quote
However, during the busiest week the A&E had seen since 2016, Sarah, 34, said her son was left in a clinical treatment room for over four hours.
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