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Author Topic: Rate my shares  (Read 29476 times)
nirvana
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« on: November 25, 2015, 01:02:51 PM »

Back in the day I had around 14 months day trading for a living, stopped this when a friend and I started a conferencing business. Did pretty well at the day trading when it was like shooting fish etc and then gave a lot back when I left some 'invested' in a few speculative plays while I was focused on other things.

A few years ago, actually more than a few, I took a few small pots of straggly pension funds and put them in a SIPP. I've never been very pension focussed but I have this moderate amount of money and through absolute laziness I left that sitting around as cash with interest offsetting charges - terrific strategy.

The pension cash isn't that important to me as I will just draw it down in lump sums at the earliest opportunity - although not desirable, if it turns to nothing it would be sort of OK

Anyway, had a week off this week so turned most of this cash into 5 shares - mainly longer term recovery ideas, one deece company imo and a more speculative AIM share. Not really very fruity but a bit of fun

I know we've had share threads before but without much interest. If anyone quietly trades with a view on these shares I'd like to hear about it. Also, any tips, however speculative and I might switcheroo some of these holdings

Just for interest, if things go well I might publish progress from time to time, obv if they bomb you won't hear another peep. Starting stack 48,000

Laird PLC
Barclays Bank
Vodafone
Rolls Royce
Boohoo.com

Current stack day 2 - £48,894

Brarfffffffffff, told you I'd only post when up but may keep this going if there is interest and a few ideas that I actually go for

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doubleup
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2015, 01:19:43 PM »


def interested in this - why did you pick these shares?

I have a small Sipp that I moved to cash in February and took out a bit in April.  I was going to do the same next year but have decided to take a defined benefit scheme I have so won't be touching the Sipp for a while and have to get investing again.
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2015, 02:31:57 PM »

In
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nirvana
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2015, 03:23:08 PM »


def interested in this - why did you pick these shares?

I have a small Sipp that I moved to cash in February and took out a bit in April.  I was going to do the same next year but have decided to take a defined benefit scheme I have so won't be touching the Sipp for a while and have to get investing again.

I don't have a lot of depthful research to share. I wanted to do something and didn't feel I had the time to really unearth any gems in terms of growth stocks, so wanted to find a few relatively solid recovery companies.

So, reviewed Banks and chose Barclays but could have decided on a couple of others.

Looked at Telecoms and chose Vodafone based on footprint and reasonable yields and growth potential still

Laird and Rolls Royce are both companies I know to some degree from my work. Rolls Royce has been smashed but has an amazing order book and tremendous forward visibility and certainty via its major positions on some very successful aviation programmes. Think it might take a while as each rise in the share price might get knocked down again due to profit taking. It could of course drop further but long term I can't see how they can remain relatively undervalued like this. Laird just have good products in growing markets and I guess I think we're far from the top of wireless infrastructure and uses and the sub markets they support in terms of RF and EMI.

Boohoo, as simple as wanting some kind of speculative internet/retail thing and reading an article along the lines of 'could they be the next Asos ?' - probably not but felt I could gamble a bit. Strongly cash generative etc made me feel a bit more comfortable

That's about it- some prior knowledge mixed in with about 3 hours of reading

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strak33
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« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2015, 03:40:08 PM »

Fairly clueless but really interested.

What platform/company do you use? I had a poke around on plus500 because i have always been excited by the idea of stocks and shares.

Is basing investments upon my own opinions and a little bit of research silly?
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« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2015, 04:02:32 PM »

If you are really day trading the frictional costs of trading will likely get you in the end.

of the ones you have, I have Barclays and Vodafone and held them both for a good while.

Rolls Royce is a company that featured heavily in accounting for growth and it has always put me off. 
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nirvana
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2015, 04:50:48 PM »

If you are really day trading the frictional costs of trading will likely get you in the end.

of the ones you have, I have Barclays and Vodafone and held them both for a good while.

Rolls Royce is a company that featured heavily in accounting for growth and it has always put me off. 

No intent to day trade this time round (no time or interest really) rather mid-long term expectations - will look at RR in a bit more detail even though that's probably a good thing to  do before  buying. Might have been over enthusiastic based on order books and my knowledge of the kind of programmes they are designed in on.
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« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2015, 04:52:55 PM »

its a long time since i analysed RR, i used to professionally as an investor, but get an accountant friend to look at their accounts: they'll never make the money you think they should from their forward book

great business, british world class leader, lousy investment..though my specific recollection is a decade or so old
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nirvana
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« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2015, 04:56:12 PM »

Fairly clueless but really interested.

What platform/company do you use? I had a poke around on plus500 because i have always been excited by the idea of stocks and shares.

Is basing investments upon my own opinions and a little bit of research silly?

I'm not sure what you mean by platform. If you mean research (lol, very light research) then the other day I read across ADVFN, Motley Fool, iii (cause I know these of old) and a bunch of linked and related articles on other sites.

My SIPP is with a fairly traditional financial advisory/brokerage company. If I was buying shares outside of this I have an account with The Share Centre who seemed quite competitive when I opened it but I haven't revisited that for a while
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nirvana
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« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2015, 05:04:16 PM »

its a long time since i analysed RR, i used to professionally as an investor, but get an accountant friend to look at their accounts: they'll never make the money you think they should from their forward book

great business, british world class leader, lousy investment..though my specific recollection is a decade or so old

Haha, cheers for that - I'm going to read some more, take a good look at the financials  and see if they have fundamentally improved 10 years later. Notionally, with billions in the backlog they should be able to extract value but obviously acknowledge that's not always the case.

My biggest gainer so far, 7 hundo or so in 2 days - may decide to day trade after all.
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« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2015, 05:07:50 PM »

you bought just after the profit warning right, so short term youve got a nice dead cat bounce

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/engineering/12014452/Rolls-Royce-at-risk-of-further-profit-warnings-concedes-chief-executive-Warren-East.html
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nirvana
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2015, 05:12:02 PM »

Fairly clueless but really interested.

What platform/company do you use? I had a poke around on plus500 because i have always been excited by the idea of stocks and shares.

Is basing investments upon my own opinions and a little bit of research silly?

To your last point - it's definitely not silly and there is no real reason to think you can't outperform a managed or advised investment

I would caution that you do a lot of research (rather than a little) and take things pretty slowly in very manageable amounts rather than follow my less then exemplary approach - somewhat frivolous borne of age and general stability (except when drinking)
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« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2015, 05:14:12 PM »

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0LI30620140213

Seems they still get up to ropey accounting practices.

Terry Smith used to claim in "accounting for growth" that they used a fair few accounting tricks to make their numbers look better than they were.  Eg making the balance sheet look bigger than it was, booked profits too early etc.  It is 20 years + since I read the book, so can't remember the exact tricks, but it doesn't look like much has changed given the stories I have just read.  

Still accounting tricks only you know about are a negative, accounting tricks everyone knows about may well be a positive.  I like to buy when everybody thinks a company is worse than it is.  
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nirvana
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« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2015, 05:23:08 PM »

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0LI30620140213

Seems they still get up to ropey accounting practices.

Terry Smith used to claim in "accounting for growth" that they used a fair few accounting tricks to make their numbers look better than they were.  Eg making the balance sheet look bigger than it was, booked profits too early etc.  It is 20 years + since I read the book, so can't remember the exact tricks, but it doesn't look like much has changed given the stories I have just read.  

Still accounting tricks only you know about are a negative, accounting tricks everyone knows about may well be a positive.  I like to buy when everybody thinks a company is worse than it is.  

Your last sentence more or less sums up my somewhat shallow contrarian thoughts on this one. Haven't read much but had generally thought things had tightened up a lot on revenue recognition - having said that, I do still see stories about this - definitely an issue with companies that contract over very long timescales
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« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2015, 08:31:31 PM »

I know nothing about shares but I have been doing a fair bit of work for RR for over 2 years now. You are correct about the forward order book but his has been the same for 2 years. They do have great products but they don't seem to be able to run the company very well.

They appointed a new chairman a few months ago and hopefully things will improve, some how I doubt it though.

Personal I wouldn't buy, but again I know little about shares.
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