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Author Topic: NFL Thread 2018/19  (Read 101402 times)
Tal
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« on: February 05, 2018, 10:35:36 PM »

With the Super Bowl done literally hours ago, it seems only right that we put our minds to the seemingly interminable offseason and the draft.

Here is the thread for the NFL action of the next 12 months.

I will start by posting my first round mock draft. Views, scoffing and alternatives welcome.



Very much hoping I haven't had two teams drafting the same player. As you'll see, I've made the whole thing about as complicated as the catch rule.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2018, 10:45:47 PM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2018, 10:38:00 PM »

Mock Draft 1

The way this works is I'll put who I think the teams should draft and why, then give you who I think they actually will draft. Teams sometimes go best available and sometimes fill need...and some just pick who will sell shirts...and some...no idea.

There is also the problem of the players who will be free agents and traded over the next few weeks. I’ve decided to run this first version on what I know and have worked on the – undoubtedly false – assumption that no team trades in the first round. I might revise that in future versions of the draft, but version one is a nice, simple, vanilla one.

1.   Cleveland Browns

Who they should draft: Saquon Barkley RB
The best prospect in the draft, fills an immediate need and I'm not convinced the Browns scout well enough to pick the right guy, if they are forced to choose between QBs. Trading down makes sense, too, as they have 22 positions of need on the roster, so stockpiling picks in a draft rich in areas the Browns are particularly weak in is a good move

Who they actually draft: Sam Darnold QB
They decide the safest choice is Darnold. The move will involve bringing in an average guy in free agency like AJ McCarron to mind the shop for a season, along with DeShon Kizer. They redshirt Darnold for 2018, while he learns the ropes and while they sort out a team that he can actually play with.

2.   New York Giants

Should: Saquon Barkley RB
Eli is poor but they haven't had a running back since Barber. One of the problems they have is the game is one dimensional, owing to the most impotent running game in the league. Careful drafting will help Eli and his successor.

Do: Josh Rosen QB
I cant see them going any other way. Personally, I think he's the best QB in the draft, and he will enjoy a year with a possible Hall of Fame quarterback. He is outspoken and the New York people will lap it up. The Giants love gambling on characters and never seem to learn.

3.   Indianapolis Colts

Should: Bradley Chubb DE
How bad is their edge rush? No. Worse. It's a passing league and defense wins championships, so get to the QB and create some pressure. An elite prospect who should inspire a welcome burst of improvement for a shaky team.

Do: Bradley Chubb DE
A match! Well done Josh McDaniels!

4.   Cleveland Browns (from Houston)

Should: Saquon Barkley RB
See above

Do: Saquon Barkley RB
The Browns get a welcome stroke of luck. With a competent, developing offensive line and a potentially elite running back, Sam Darnold won't feel so bad about those cold winter nights in the Dawg Pound. Bleacher Report’s Draft Scout, Matt Miller, says he’s the best running back he’s ever graded.

5.   Denver Broncos

Should: Baker Mayfield QB
With QBs coming off the board, the Broncos have to make a decision. Paxton Lynch isn't the franchise guy and neither is Trevor Siemian. Mayfield impressed in the Senior Bowl and that was under Denver's coaching. Elway can't afford another whiff and he is the best fit for their offense. If he is gone by this point, I would not be surprised if they traded down.

Do: Baker Mayfield QB
Already we are seeing very talented – more talented – players dropping down the draft order. 7

6.   New York Jets

Should: Lamar Jackson QB
There are options here like Quenton Nelson, but I think the right thing to do is taking a QB. The Jets (like several teams around them) could look to bring in Kirk Cousins, which probably would mean they don’t go QB, even for a redshirt year. It’s far from clear whether the Jets pay the likely sky-high fee to sign Cousins, who the Redskins might choose to franchise tag, so they can trade him. That sort of thing leads to prohibitive pricing, so we will have to see. I am leaving Cousins where he is for now, until we know more, as this one likely runs for a while.

Do: Lamar Jackson QB
The Jets managed to get a system in place for Josh McCown, so Jackson is delighted at going to New Jersey. There’s logic, if they did take Cousins, in having a prospect to sit behind him, particularly one who has a few mechanical issues. It worked out fine for Aaron Rogers, we will doubtless be told.

7.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Should: Minkah Fitzpatrick S/CB
They should be delighted that he has fallen this far down and select the best player available. With Grimes going, they need someone opposite Vernon Hargraves and, much as they have other needs, this is a high scoring division, so you need defensive playmakers. He would probably end up playing at safety like Honeybadger in Arizona.

Do: Quenton Nelson OG
Not a bad choice by any means. They fill the position of greatest need and Nelson is a special talent. Enormous, rangey and transforming an awful O-Line. I won’t lie: I did consider putting a kicker here for my own amusement. Suspect they won’t do that again in a hurry.

8.   Chicago Bears

Should: Denzel Ward CB
Cornerback is such a huge issue for this team, though there are a number of holes (offensive line, wide receiver too). Reaching for a wide receiver is a mistake they've made before and they can't really miss on defense, with Ward and Jackson still on the board at CB, Tremaine Edmunds at LB and Minkah Fitzpatrick at S.

Do: Calvin Ridley WR
Bears gonna Bear. On the plus side, if this pays off, Chicago find a stud. The trouble is he isn't a big receiver, compared with the corps in Detroit. He will stretch the field, though, which will suit the system for short passes to the running backs
« Last Edit: February 05, 2018, 10:53:18 PM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2018, 10:38:52 PM »

9.   Oakland Raiders (could be 9 or 10 on a coin toss)
I have decided Oakland win this, as Gruden runs golden.

Should: Tremaine Edmunds LB
Could end up being the best player in the draft. A junior with no ceiling, Edmunds has outrageous speed and will raise eyebrows in the combine. The Raiders lack pressure aside from Khalil Mack and could do with a playmaker like Edmunds in the most competitive division in the NFL.

Do: Roland Jones RB
Gruden decides the best strategy is to take the pressure off his main man, Derek Carr. He will be hoping Donald Penn (35) can stay healthy at left tackle. The Marshawn Lynch experiment hasn't worked, so bringing in an athletic prospect who can run straight up the gut or round the outside makes sense. Commentators and fans alike will be screaming DEFENSE at their TVs though.

10.   San Francisco 49ers

Should: Minkah Fitzpatrick S
The secondary is a huge need for the 49ers and this is the best guy on the board. He offers versatility too.

Do: Minkah Fitzpatrick S
Kyle Shanahan seizes the chance to bolster the defense. An uncontroversial pick which is unlikely to backfire.

11.   Miami Dolphins

Should: Tremaine Edmunds LB
This team is so weak at linebacker that it's a racing certainty his name is called at 11, if not before.

Do: Tremaine Edmunds LB
Mike Mayock breathes an enormous sigh of relief, after having had him at the Best Available spot in his graphic for the last 40 minutes. Tom Brady takes note.

12.   Cincinnati Bengals

Should: Connor Williams OT
Not sure if anyone has noticed, but the Bengals could do with improving the five turnstiles in front of Andy Dalton (thanks again, Andy, by the way). If it was up to me, Andy, you ginger ledge, you would get all the protection you need, starting with this automatic starter, whose measurables make him a potential left tackle immediately.

Do: Derwin James S
It is an area they need to improve on, and James has featured highly in scouting notebooks. There is a lot to like about him and the Bengals do love their nasty defense. Draft an O-Line though, for goodness' sake!

13.   Washington Redskins

Should: Marcus Davenport DE
This is a good place to go best available, with what is likely a rebuild team. Alex Smith is a sticking plaster at QB, and the team needs to create some pressure without the ball. Davenport has huge upside, but needs coaching.

Do: Joshua Jackson CB
Perhaps the best Zone CB, the Redskins elect to take Jackson, which can hardly be a bad choice. It fills a position of need and makes sense.

14.   Green Bay Packers

Should: Denzel Ward CB
Lots of options here, but if A-Rod is healthy, having a spritely secondary is a smart play, as teams will often be needing to throw to stay in games. Ward is close in standard to Jackson.

Do: Connor Williams OT
Surprised looks around the auditorium, but Mayock tells us he was always a possibility. Rodgers will be delighted to see some pass protection and the franchise has to start building for a future without the baaaaad maaaan, as Brett Huntley can't have another season being chased like Benny Hill.

15.   Arizona Cardinals

Should: Josh Allen QB
A new era begins and that means a new guy under center. Allen could be a steal here and, if they can persuade Larry Fitzgerald to stick around for another year, he will enjoy the windows Allen can find. Allen also has a big arm, which this team, with John Brown, Jaron Brown and JJ Nelson, needs.

Do: Josh Allen QB
New Head Coach, new QB. Same running back coming back from injury, though. David Johnson looks happy to be back. They might turn out to be suitors for an experienced quarterback for 2018, as Allen is not a finished product and I would not be surprised if he sat out this year behind someone like Case Keenum, Nick Foles or even a Ryan Tannehill. It could be, if they hit the reset button, the Cards save themselves a lot of money on the cap and reinvest it on a short contract QB.
 
16.   Baltimore Ravens

Should: Derrius Guice RB
Close call, here, as they need every offensive skill position and they were able to muddle through at running back last season with Alex Collins and Buck Allen. Guice will play three downs and will run straight ahead with lowered shoulders. He is where I would go.

Do: Christian Kirk WR
An understandable choice, but possibly a reach at 16. Kirk is a big lad and will be handy all over the field, which Flacco desperately needs. This is the problem with paying a top 20 QB top 5 money: you have to invest and keep investing in the tools around him, else you look like an even bigger mug.
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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2018, 10:39:38 PM »


17.   Los Angeles Chargers

Should: Roquon Smith LB
Whilst the defense is good, inside linebacker is a need for the Chargers. Smith isn't the biggest, but he is versatile and will add even more speed to a scary defense. They might have gone quarterback, but the five off the boards already mean they need to look elsewhere.

Do: Orlando Brown OT
The son of Orlando Brown Sr, also an offensive tackle, young Orlando is a 6 foot 8 345lb unit, who immediately bolsters a pretty weak offensive line. The Chargers have to consider life after Philip Rivers and the best way to do so is start building a fortress around the quarterback. That might keep Rivers healthy for another year and enable whoever comes in next a solid foundation. This looks a smart pick.

18.   Seattle Seahawks

Should: Mike Hughes CB
There’s a real argument for the Seahawks trading up or down. They need offensive linemen but the best two have gone. Hughes has a lot to offer. Denzel Ward is probably higher in terms of talent at the position, but Hughes is nastier, more physical and looks better suited to a defense that could be losing Richard Sherman.

Do: Denzel Ward CB
Pete Carroll picks up the experts’ choice as the top corner left on the board, but, however much coaching he will get, can 5 foot 10 Ward be taught to be taller? Hard to criticise the choice, though. The Seahawks stay tough against the pass.

19.   Dallas Cowboys

Should: Da’Ron Payne DT
The Cowboys have a good offensive line but need to be able to create pressure on the other side of the ball. It’s a big area of weakness and Payne has huge talent and could end up being the pass rusher the Cowboys have lacked through the middle.

Do: Billy Price C
Two years ago, the O-Line was impenetrable but last year there were cracks. In my view, they have bigger needs, but Price has had four years as a starter in college and can play anywhere along the interior offensive line from week one. It’s a logical pick, even if it will draw criticism.

20.   Detroit Lions

Should: Marcus Davenport DE
The Lions need to threaten the opposition QBs more than they did last year. Davenport would add a big threat to a team that is quietly looking upwards.

Do: Marcus Davenport DE
They probably can’t believe their luck that he is still in the green room when they are on the clock, but a run of teams with other needs has played into their hands. He needs coaching, but 6 foot 6 and over 250lb is an athletic start. Aaron Rogers beware. 

21.   Buffalo Bills

Should: Vita Ve’a DT
The Bills have a whole smorgasbord of needs, but are blessed to have five draft picks in the first three rounds…which helps. They could cash some of those in to get a quarterback, as Tyrod Taylor doesn’t seem to be a fit in Buffalo. To get a Cousins, it’ll probably cost too much, and the Bills don’t have an enormous amount of cap space, so a bidding war is probably out of the question. Ve’a is a beast and is a cheap replacement for Marcel Dareus in the same position. 350lb of grunt will help support a handy defense.

Do: Vita Ve’a DT
He also fulfils the criterion of “Best Available” and it’s pretty hard to find a complete airball, when pretty much every position is either devoid of talent or, more often, lacking in depth.
 
22.   Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City)

Should: James Daniels C
Daniel Jeremiah of nfl.com loves him, but the Bills fans won’t be enamoured at us drafting two linemen. You have to make the best football decision, though, and that means replacing Eric Wood, who has been a stalwart of the Bills’ O-Line, but who has had to retire due to injury. Daniels is a strong run blocker, particularly at the second level, which is a necessary feature for the Bills, who rely on making gaps for Shady McCoy at running back.

Do: James Daniels C
I would not have been surprised if they went Billy Price, if he were still on the board…or frankly a whole load of other positions of need. Reality is that there aren’t any standout WRs, QBs or TEs out there in the low twenties, so drafting sensibly for now is best. It’s not sexy, but it is a smart couple of picks. Mayock impressed.

23.   Los Angeles Rams

Should: Donte Jackson CB
Cornerback is a massive need for the Rams, who are presumably losing Trumaine Johnson in the offseason. Having turned into an aggressive offense, it’s more important than ever to stop the opposition from getting the ball downfield quickly. Jackson is an athlete and McVay has shown himself to be a coach who wants to develop raw talent.

Do: Donte Jackson CB
A smart call, though one of a few they could have made. The one I think they rightly omitted was Mike Hughes, whose off-field issues (a misdemeanour assault) could be a red flag for a big city like LA.

24.   Carolina Panthers

Should: Mike McGlinchey OT
He had the option of declaring for last year’s draft, but chose to do another year of school. That sort of thing is attractive to some teams, who value intelligence and self-appraisal. McGlinchey is a strong pass protector, who can start straight away in an offensive line which is light on talent. Protecting Cam must surely be a priority?

Do: Auden Tate, WR
The trouble with teams chasing a quick return to glory is they chase. This is a gamble, as a 6 foot 5 receiver offers a great option for the team (and a direct replacement for Kelvin Benjamin), but he doesn’t have explosive speed and has draft projections from rounds 1 to 3.
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« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2018, 10:40:42 PM »

25.   Tennessee Titans

Should: Arden Key OLB
The Titans need an edge rusher and there are a few options here. Key has mobility and talent, but he’s also probably a safer pick than some of those left on the big boards. He has a huge first step, which shapes to be a success in the NFL. He does have areas of weakness, but he could be a Pro Bowl talent, with a higher floor than his rivals.

Do: Sony Michel RB
There’s little reason to keep Demarco Murray and a genuine pass-catching running back to support Derrick Henry makes a lot of sense. Michel also brings a strong pass protection game, which is important for disguise, as you can’t give away what you’re doing these days.

26.   Atlanta Falcons

Should: Maurice Hurst DT
The Falcons probably find themselves letting Dontare Poe go and, if they do, a more explosive replacement might be in order. Hurst fits the nasty, Seattle-type defense that Atlanta have been building. He offers mobility over size, but that could well be ideal for this team.

Do: Taven Bryan DT
I suspect this is the guy who gets the headlines, as the draft draws near. He has been getting comparisons to JJ Watt, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. He is a little more raw than Hurst, but the Falcons won’t mind that.

27.   New Orleans Saints

Should: Roquon Smith LB
I do see this as a position of need, as, although they have talent at the position, injuries hurt them late in the season and a young talent like Smith offers a big upside. They might like a QB or a WR, but these can come later in the draft, rather than reaching now.

Do: Roquon Smith LB
If he’s still on the board at 27, Smith makes huge sense. The Saints will be happy with their evening’s work.

28.   Pittsburgh Steelers

Should: Rashaan Evans LB
Having been teased by hours of watching teams draft around him, the Steelers will hate that Smith went just before they came to pick at 28. Evans isn’t a bad alternative, though.

Do: Rashaan Evans LB
Currently, and given the draft order above, I see this as a no-brainer. Ryan Shazier’s career is in serious question and the Steelers need a line backer.

29.   Jacksonville Jaguars

Should: Hayden Hurst TE
A few options here, but the Jags need to give Blake Bortles more options. They will lose Marqise Lee in the summer to free agency and, even with Allen Robinson coming back, a safe pair of hands will help. Hurst is probably the only tight end who could go day one.

Do: Isaiah Wynn OG
A similar principle, in helping Blake Bortles, plus offering some interior help for Leonard Fournette. Wynn was a left tackle for the Bulldogs, but Daniel Jeremiah has him as a guard. That would be ideal for the Jaguars.

30.   Minnesota Vikings

Should: Mike Hughes CB
The Vikings really need offensive linemen, but they’ll have to take them further down or bring in some free agents. They can afford to take a risk on Hughes, as he comes with huge upside if he turns out to be as good as his film suggests. If he doesn’t work, they have depth there anyway.

Do: Mike Hughes CB
Derrius Guice will be attracting attention with the commentators at this point, but the Vikings can’t really justify taking a first round running back when they have Dalvin Cook coming back. That is unless his recovery isn’t going as well as planned. Hughes it is.

31.   New England Patriots

Should: Da’Ron Payne DT
The Patriots defense looked pretty ordinary at times this season and, whilst the bend but don’t break system works to a point, they need to be able to stop teams getting consistent yardage. That starts with a run stuffer and they haven’t a good one since Vince Wilfork left. Jean Ricky Francois is an unrestricted free agent this summer and they need to pay Nate Solder or let him go, along with Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead. Payne is a big unit who caused damage for the Alabama Crimson Tide and could be a first rounder. I toyed with Sam Hubbard, as his defensive coordinator is Schiano, whom Belichick loves. Also with McGlinchey as a replacement for Nate Solder.

Do: Jaire Alexander CB
Another free agent this summer is Malcolm Butler. His time seems to be up and the Patriots need cover desperately. Alexander has had some injuries but he is the projected to be the quickest of the corners and can play nickel, too, which suits the versatile Belichick system. Of course, we don’t know what will happen, post-Patricia, but we can expect it won’t be a complete overhaul in style. Alexander could be the one who shines in the combine and the Patriots need a raw speed guy. He is made for Belichick and Bill almost cracks a smile as he drafts him.

32.   Philadelphia Eagles

Should: Derrius Guice RB
This might seem an odd one, but he’s a vertical runner, who can either take a heavy workload or at least do some of the dirty work for Ajayi. Blount and Sproles are free agents and Guice is a nice replacement for Blount, which Wendell Smallwood certainly isn’t. The Eagles have relatively few needs (as befits the Super Bowl champions), though they could do with some replacement guys at Offensive Guard and linebacker. This is a fairly obvious potential trade down spot for the Eagles, but we aren’t doing that here.

Do: Leighton Vander Esch LB
This one might be a reach, but February is a long way away from the draft. I can see Vander Esch drawing praise for the next few months, as his performances for Boise State showed him to be more than a competent tackler. He is likely to go in the second round, but has a decent ceiling, which might well attract suitors. He is big enough to cover tight ends and that helps, when you are in a division with Evan Engram, Jason Witten, Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis.



So, that’s 16 offense and 16 defense, which is a nice coincidence.

« Last Edit: February 05, 2018, 10:44:20 PM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2018, 10:58:36 PM »

I have no interest in NFL ,but what a terrific post.
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« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2018, 11:24:19 PM »


Utterly fascinating read. Thanks Tal.
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2018, 10:29:35 AM »

OMG, it's just hit me that I have to wait until pick 32 this year.

Great post, Tal.  I'm not close enough to the college prospects to properly assess it, but seeing that pick number brought a huge smile to my face (it had disappeared briefly, about 30 minutes ago, when I temporarily thought about Barnsley losing their manager).
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2018, 04:54:45 PM »

Great post Tal will digest it properly later on! Can't beat a far too early mock draft Cheesy - From the small amount I've seen so far I would like the Bengals to take Wynn, he seems like an animal. I wouldn't be shocked to see us move back and gain a couple of picks later in the first/second round, Bengals love their draft picks.

Saw a few clips of Guice today saying how good a North to South runner he is, seems like he'd be a good replacement for Blount if he does leave

McDaniels confirmed as the new head coach of the Colts, was rumours he'd stay for another year with the possibility of succeeding Belichick in 2019, but obviously not
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« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2018, 05:02:28 PM »

I'm looking at putting together a stat/preview pack for the start of the season, do you think there's any use for recording what a team has done this year and whether there is likely to be any pattern year on year? Things like First half field goal, first half points, whether they score first, TD scorers, Score every qtr etc... based more towards betting lines that are available than general info.

Or do you think teams change too much year on year for there to be any correlation?
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2018, 06:23:38 PM »

I'm looking at putting together a stat/preview pack for the start of the season, do you think there's any use for recording what a team has done this year and whether there is likely to be any pattern year on year? Things like First half field goal, first half points, whether they score first, TD scorers, Score every qtr etc... based more towards betting lines that are available than general info.

Or do you think teams change too much year on year for there to be any correlation?

Works for some teams, but the ones that have had changes (including coaches of course) are harder to predict.

Also lots of subtle things:

Bolstering the offensive line in the summer might mean a running back is more efficient in yards per carry. Drafting a third down back in the fourth round might increase a QB's rating and passing yards. Changes in divisional rival teams can affect performance, when 2/16 games are against them.

Which teams defer helps for first TD bets, if you can get them up against a team that receives.

Score every quarter is largely irrelevant of itself.

Coaching tendencies are better: like the Eagles having an analytics team informing the coach when to go for it on 4th down.
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2018, 06:40:36 PM »

That's the thing, there's been a lot of changes, there is a lot of those this summer and obviously the QB merry-go-round is in full swing as well.

Score every qtr may be irrelevant, but it's usually around 13/8-15/8 for decent teams and it could be a good earner if there's a team that usually does, although again I think that's largely dependant on schedule which may be harder to judge, I guess it would probably be more relevant to find Drive success rate, what percentage of drives end in scores
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« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2018, 06:25:38 AM »

Or maybe Mcdaniels hasn't accepted it and is going to be Pats HC in 2019
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« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2018, 06:37:54 AM »

Or maybe Mcdaniels hasn't accepted it and is going to be Pats HC in 2019

Incredible turnaround.

Can't see what the Colts have done wrong. They had the coaching staff in place with a new team assembled. What happens to them now? Do they also renege?

McDaniels does a Belichick, then (resigned one day into his reign as Jets Head Coach).
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2018, 09:46:58 AM »

Bloke has the Foles touchdown catch/trick play tattooed on arm

might support the Eagles

 Click to see full-size image.
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