COVID19

[kukushkin88]

The problem with quoting cases is also that even the countries with a lot of testing, like Germany, are still not capturing every case.

So if you have to extrapolate a little bit, or you have to extrapolate a lot, doesn't change that every figure given isn't the actual amount of cases in that country.

Even comparing the same country over time will have skewed results, Germany for example, had their testing skewed towards the younger population to start with and is only recently increasing the number in the older population being tested.

The number of confirmed cases per country is a figure to keep an eye on but it's only really for a very general trend and comparisons between countries seem to be largely meaningless.

The deaths by country are a bit more meaningful but for an international comparison I think you need a lot more than anyone (including Kush's link) have done so far. In particular the result over time compared to the size of the country.

For now that's also a general indicator rather than an exact measurement because it has to be obvious that a million deaths from covid19 in the US will mean a lot different to a million deaths in Lichtenstein (for example).

I’m unclear why the size country is a significant issue for growth rate of fatalities? I don’t think total deaths tells us much at this stage.

I should clarify that I mean in terms of assessing the success of a strategy in combatting the virus.

Because we don't know how many cases there are.

It is more likely that there are 10 million un recorded cases in the US than there are 10 million un recorded cases in Lichtenstein - obviously that feeds through to deaths.

Like with the other factors general trends can be found by looking at the figures available but there's absolutely no nuance to the data.

The obsession with daily figures probably doesn't help, it's interesting to get a daily update but comparing week on week is probably more helpful once countries are past the stage of being able to meaninfully track every case.

I'd say once a week isn't going to be useful given the growth rate.

Away from twitter disclosures, it seems the Government are also tracking hospital admissions data, as I saw a story a day or two ago where it mentioned that there were promising signs as admissions were slowing.  I think it was Neil Ferguson who said this.  I am pretty sure they are getting up to date numbers on staff and GP sickness too.  So in the background they are likely producing a lot of up to date stats.

I don't see how looking at cases is better than deaths anymore.  If we had better testing, cases could be better as it is a leading indicator.  If I was in Government, I'd definitely be looking at the trend in hospital admissions as a proxy for the trend in cases right now.  That is assuming that they can get frequent up to date figures.

They seemed to indicate that there was promising data on hospital admissions in the period 96 to 48 hours ago but that in the last 48 hours the positive indication had evaporated and it’s now accelerating at the highest rate yet (this was backed up by Ed Conways graphs on Sky yesterday, I assume they let him have their data) let’s hope Nightingale is on line soon.

[Karabiner]

I'd really like to know the true story re. the "lack of chemicals" which has led to the shocking shortage of tests to NHS staff.

Very good on this

https://reaction.life/coronavirus-testing-why-there-is-a-shortage-of-reagents/

Unfortunately it's behind a paywall.

[Chompy]

Good stuff. We'll get Tikay involved if he comes out of retirement!

Just finished watching that, and love that Rogan is still hoping one of the experts is going to say 'Just hit your sauna, and you're good'

For the sauna to work you need to drink lemon tea and shove a garlic clove up each nostril before blow drying it. Fact.

More chance of someone being interviewed from home without having a book shelf in the background than getting out there in the summer.

[Jon MW]

The problem with quoting cases is also that even the countries with a lot of testing, like Germany, are still not capturing every case.

So if you have to extrapolate a little bit, or you have to extrapolate a lot, doesn't change that every figure given isn't the actual amount of cases in that country.

Even comparing the same country over time will have skewed results, Germany for example, had their testing skewed towards the younger population to start with and is only recently increasing the number in the older population being tested.

The number of confirmed cases per country is a figure to keep an eye on but it's only really for a very general trend and comparisons between countries seem to be largely meaningless.

The deaths by country are a bit more meaningful but for an international comparison I think you need a lot more than anyone (including Kush's link) have done so far. In particular the result over time compared to the size of the country.

For now that's also a general indicator rather than an exact measurement because it has to be obvious that a million deaths from covid19 in the US will mean a lot different to a million deaths in Lichtenstein (for example).

I’m unclear why the size country is a significant issue for growth rate of fatalities? I don’t think total deaths tells us much at this stage.

I should clarify that I mean in terms of assessing the success of a strategy in combatting the virus.

Because we don't know how many cases there are.

It is more likely that there are 10 million un recorded cases in the US than there are 10 million un recorded cases in Lichtenstein - obviously that feeds through to deaths.

Like with the other factors general trends can be found by looking at the figures available but there's absolutely no nuance to the data.

The obsession with daily figures probably doesn't help, it's interesting to get a daily update but comparing week on week is probably more helpful once countries are past the stage of being able to meaninfully track every case.

I'd say once a week isn't going to be useful given the growth rate.

Away from twitter disclosures, it seems the Government are also tracking hospital admissions data, as I saw a story a day or two ago where it mentioned that there were promising signs as admissions were slowing.  I think it was Neil Ferguson who said this.  I am pretty sure they are getting up to date numbers on staff and GP sickness too.  So in the background they are likely producing a lot of up to date stats.

I don't see how looking at cases is better than deaths anymore.  If we had better testing, cases could be better as it is a leading indicator.  If I was in Government, I'd definitely be looking at the trend in hospital admissions as a proxy for the trend in cases right now.  That is assuming that they can get frequent up to date figures.

To clarify I mean a weeks worth of daily figures is more useful than looking at the daily figure every day ..... there's a difference between the two.

Like you said there is an indication that there are other figures which might be more useful but again not by looking at whether it goes down to a day or two (for example), what matters is the line on the graph rather than each data point.

[Doobs]

The problem with quoting cases is also that even the countries with a lot of testing, like Germany, are still not capturing every case.

So if you have to extrapolate a little bit, or you have to extrapolate a lot, doesn't change that every figure given isn't the actual amount of cases in that country.

Even comparing the same country over time will have skewed results, Germany for example, had their testing skewed towards the younger population to start with and is only recently increasing the number in the older population being tested.

The number of confirmed cases per country is a figure to keep an eye on but it's only really for a very general trend and comparisons between countries seem to be largely meaningless.

The deaths by country are a bit more meaningful but for an international comparison I think you need a lot more than anyone (including Kush's link) have done so far. In particular the result over time compared to the size of the country.

For now that's also a general indicator rather than an exact measurement because it has to be obvious that a million deaths from covid19 in the US will mean a lot different to a million deaths in Lichtenstein (for example).

I’m unclear why the size country is a significant issue for growth rate of fatalities? I don’t think total deaths tells us much at this stage.

I should clarify that I mean in terms of assessing the success of a strategy in combatting the virus.

Because we don't know how many cases there are.

It is more likely that there are 10 million un recorded cases in the US than there are 10 million un recorded cases in Lichtenstein - obviously that feeds through to deaths.

Like with the other factors general trends can be found by looking at the figures available but there's absolutely no nuance to the data.

The obsession with daily figures probably doesn't help, it's interesting to get a daily update but comparing week on week is probably more helpful once countries are past the stage of being able to meaninfully track every case.

I'd say once a week isn't going to be useful given the growth rate.

Away from twitter disclosures, it seems the Government are also tracking hospital admissions data, as I saw a story a day or two ago where it mentioned that there were promising signs as admissions were slowing.  I think it was Neil Ferguson who said this.  I am pretty sure they are getting up to date numbers on staff and GP sickness too.  So in the background they are likely producing a lot of up to date stats.

I don't see how looking at cases is better than deaths anymore.  If we had better testing, cases could be better as it is a leading indicator.  If I was in Government, I'd definitely be looking at the trend in hospital admissions as a proxy for the trend in cases right now.  That is assuming that they can get frequent up to date figures.

To clarify I mean a weeks worth of daily figures is more useful than looking at the daily figure every day ..... there's a difference between the two.

Like you said there is an indication that there are other figures which might be more useful but again not by looking at whether it goes down to a day or two (for example), what matters is the line on the graph rather than each data point.

I don't think we are disagreeing.  I have seen charts that do running 3 day averages, which seem a better indicator of trends.  Daily figures are bound to be corrupted a bit by lag, especially over weekends when the number cruncher types will likely log out. 

[4KSuited]

Just lol that they're coming in through Heathrow and being sent on their way with a 'please try to self isolate'. Straight on to the tube.

Seems like an amazingly high proportion are from NYC, hard to see how that goes wrong:

https://www.airport-london-heathrow.com/lhr-arrivals?fbclid=IwAR01xN0vaMi278Bisq3tAhZsKB33XaW2zKhbgvQC002hWj3wAkyMjYSR_9o

and plenty from Madrid.

I assume they're being temperature checked prior to boarding though? If that's the case there's no need to do it again 7hrs later

It's unlikely that temp checks are being done at the airports. They certainly aren't done at Heathrow.

if a passenger makes it known that they have symptoms whilst on board, the flight deck notify Heathrow, and the paramedics will meet the flight and control the release of passengers off the flight.

Whilst there are still a few dozen flights coming into Heathrow, there are very few people on board the majority of them.

Update:

Temperature checks are now being done for all passengers traveling to Seoul
Questions only for passengers to Singapore

[Karabiner]

I nipped out to Asda yesterday for a quick trolley-dash and afterwards went to put some air in one of my tyres which loses pressure a little quicker than the others. Imagine my surprise when I discovered that the air-machine had been taken out of service as it is not considered to be essential - this is in an otherwise fully-functional self-service petrol station.

I now have one worryingly flattish tyre and hopefully I'll be more successful the next time I take her out.

[Pokerpops]

I nipped out to Asda yesterday for a quick trolley-dash and afterwards went to put some air in one of my tyres which loses pressure a little quicker than the others. Imagine my surprise when I discovered that the air-machine had been taken out of service as it is not considered to be essential - this is in an otherwise fully-functional self-service petrol station.

I now have one worryingly flattish tyre and hopefully I'll be more successful the next time I take her out.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Polco-Single-Barrel-Foot-Gauge/dp/B0001P0IVA/ref=sr_1_3?brr=1&qid=1585829621&rd=1&s=automotive&sr=1-3

[arbboy]

I nipped out to Asda yesterday for a quick trolley-dash and afterwards went to put some air in one of my tyres which loses pressure a little quicker than the others. Imagine my surprise when I discovered that the air-machine had been taken out of service as it is not considered to be essential - this is in an otherwise fully-functional self-service petrol station.

I now have one worryingly flattish tyre and hopefully I'll be more successful the next time I take her out.

Always had you down as a waitrose man Ralph! 

[RED-DOG]

Got one of these these years ago. £12 ish. Worth it's weight in toilet roll.

Click to see full-size image.

[Karabiner]

I nipped out to Asda yesterday for a quick trolley-dash and afterwards went to put some air in one of my tyres which loses pressure a little quicker than the others. Imagine my surprise when I discovered that the air-machine had been taken out of service as it is not considered to be essential - this is in an otherwise fully-functional self-service petrol station.

I now have one worryingly flattish tyre and hopefully I'll be more successful the next time I take her out.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Polco-Single-Barrel-Foot-Gauge/dp/B0001P0IVA/ref=sr_1_3?brr=1&qid=1585829621&rd=1&s=automotive&sr=1-3

I checked all of the ones that were in stock/available on Amazon and they all had terrible reviews.

[Karabiner]

Got one of these these years ago. £12 ish. Worth it's weight in toilet roll.

Click to see full-size image.

If that's one that plugs into the cigarette-lighter Tom, I have a problem - the one in old faithful has never worked so presumably there'd be no charge.

[Marky147]

Good stuff. We'll get Tikay involved if he comes out of retirement!

Just finished watching that, and love that Rogan is still hoping one of the experts is going to say 'Just hit your sauna, and you're good'

For the sauna to work you need to drink lemon tea and shove a garlic clove up each nostril before blow drying it. Fact.

More chance of someone being interviewed from home without having a book shelf in the background than getting out there in the summer.

That definitely sounds like the trick, along with a hit of DMT and a couple hours in Rogan's float tank!

Hopefully I get interviewed then, and we'll be off. They'll only see the pics of my brother's kids stuck to the cabinet behind me in the office

[Chompy]

So much chatter about DMT and Ayahuasca on there. It's facinating stuff but I'm way too much of a chickenshit to ever thing about doing it.

Don't forget, another round of applause tonight for the NHS at 8pm and then outside to shine the torch into the night sky at 8.30pm tomorrow. Nothing scheduled yet for the weekend.

[Marky147]

Rogan loves it, and has done loads of DMT. He had a float tank at his house, and when they built that massive compound where he does the podcast now he got one put in there, too. Very fascinating, and I'd have a go if it was easily accessible. Mate of mine paid a grand to go on one of those ayahuasca retreats in Spain with a shamen, but obv picked the wrong time to do that!