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COVID19
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Topic: COVID19 (Read 359691 times)
Chompy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 11852
Expert
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1065 on:
April 02, 2020, 04:52:43 PM »
Must be something to some, or all, of it I guess. DMT, Ayahuasca, sensory deprivation, DDP Yoga. Never tried any of them tbf.
Anyway, on to today's 'Questions Unanswered' session.
Q&A Bingo
"Ramping up"
"Surge Capacity"
"Not out of the woods yet"
"Pedal to the floor"
"Green shoots"
4-6 2+, 6-1 3+, 12-1 4+, 25-1 full house
"Ramping up" spread 2.5-2.7
First question comes from: 5-4 Laura Kuenssberg, 3 Peston, 6 Bar.
Number of bookshelves behind question askers spread: 2.1-2.3
Max stake £10. All profits to the NHS.
Just found out Sporting are doing actual prices.
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.1305ccfe-2992-4777-bb4a-880fd174d9d1/boris-daily-briefing-thursday-2nd-april-2020
«
Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 05:09:01 PM by Chompy
»
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
arbboy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 13285
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1066 on:
April 02, 2020, 05:09:44 PM »
i'd lay peston at 33/1. like the bookshelves spread. Seems spot on to me.
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TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1067 on:
April 02, 2020, 05:13:22 PM »
Max Bet Kuenssberg please
Over under on journos who will cram 3 questions into 1?
over under on questions on testing actually answered?
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Chompy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 11852
Expert
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1068 on:
April 02, 2020, 05:17:06 PM »
Koony now 4-7
Number of questions requesting numbers 3.5-3.8
Number of answers containing numbers 0.3-0.6
What's going on today? I've seen Sandown races go off closer to time than tonight's trio.
Why would anyone say 'cheese'? MAX sell at 0.5 here.
«
Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 05:22:54 PM by Chompy
»
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16577
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1069 on:
April 02, 2020, 05:23:15 PM »
This is a summary of where the actuaries response group thinks Covid 19 mortality is right now, and includes comparisons with flu
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/covid-19-actuaries-response-group_covid-19-in-numbers-mortality-v-normal-activity-6651491858767851520-FGae/
TLDR It is around 4 times to 16 times more deadly than normal flu for over 50s (central rate is approx 9x more deadly for males, 5x for females). These are multiples of flu mortality, and men already die more easily than women. Bad news for overweight over 50s males, as it is more deadly again for you.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Sheriff Fatman
Global Moderator
Hero Member
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Posts: 6134
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1070 on:
April 02, 2020, 05:47:47 PM »
Someone I went to school with, and who I'm friends with on social media, lost their Dad overnight to COVID-19. It's the first time I've seen anyone impacted who I knew personally, which makes it feel much closer to home now.
It was probably inevitable that this would be the case, as we're still at the relatively early stages of this. Sadly, I fear there's much more of this to come in the short-term.
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"...And If You Flash Him A Smile He'll Take Your Teeth As Deposit..."
"Sheriff Fatman" - Carter the Unstoppable Sex Machine
2006 Blonde Caption Comp Ultimate Champion (to be replaced by actual poker achievements when I have any)
GUKPT Online Main Event Winner 2008 (yay, a poker achievement!)
Karabiner
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22740
James Webb Telescope
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1071 on:
April 02, 2020, 06:11:27 PM »
Quote from: Sheriff Fatman on April 02, 2020, 05:47:47 PM
Someone I went to school with, and who I'm friends with on social media, lost their Dad overnight to COVID-19. It's the first time I've seen anyone impacted who I knew personally, which makes it feel much closer to home now.
It was probably inevitable that this would be the case, as we're still at the relatively early stages of this. Sadly, I fear there's much more of this to come in the short-term.
It must be awful not to be able to comfort a dying parent or attend the funeral.
Logged
"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
Woodsey
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 15846
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1072 on:
April 02, 2020, 08:00:54 PM »
Reports are that Mexico is urging Trump to hurry up with the wall........
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DropTheHammer
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1057
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1073 on:
April 02, 2020, 08:15:19 PM »
Quote from: Sheriff Fatman on April 02, 2020, 05:47:47 PM
Someone I went to school with, and who I'm friends with on social media, lost their Dad overnight to COVID-19. It's the first time I've seen anyone impacted who I knew personally, which makes it feel much closer to home now.
It was probably inevitable that this would be the case, as we're still at the relatively early stages of this. Sadly, I fear there's much more of this to come in the short-term.
My cousin’s wife was in hospital a week ago with corona. Only in her 30s but has kidney problems, so that was a concern. Fortunately she’s now out, having made a strong recovery.
Thanks Doobs for posting that actuaries info, very informative and always interesting to see the professionals’ opinions.
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nirvana
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 7804
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1074 on:
April 02, 2020, 08:56:06 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on April 01, 2020, 07:45:23 PM
I think raising hopes on the antibody tests was also a big mistake.
Not here yet, having suggested could be distributed by amazon and boots within days.
They backtracked a bit today. Needs more time to check it works etc
When it does come, how practically do you tell a percentage of the population to crack on whilst expecting the majority to stay locked down?
Yep, the last point is really difficult i think. Almost to the point of no value or undoable. Would have obvious uses in terms of random sampling that might show what is happening in the general population.
Might also have some value (that you could persuade the majority of the population to agree with) in terms of getting certain key workers back working
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sola virtus nobilitat
Cf
Global Moderator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8089
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1075 on:
April 02, 2020, 10:34:45 PM »
Quote from: Karabiner on April 02, 2020, 06:11:27 PM
Quote from: Sheriff Fatman on April 02, 2020, 05:47:47 PM
Someone I went to school with, and who I'm friends with on social media, lost their Dad overnight to COVID-19. It's the first time I've seen anyone impacted who I knew personally, which makes it feel much closer to home now.
It was probably inevitable that this would be the case, as we're still at the relatively early stages of this. Sadly, I fear there's much more of this to come in the short-term.
It must be awful not to be able to comfort a dying parent or attend the funeral.
Immediate family can attend funerals.
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Blue text
RickBFA
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2001
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1076 on:
April 03, 2020, 12:17:59 AM »
Seen a few things starting to seriously question the numbers of Chinese deaths.
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html
Here’s one, reckons 42,000 might be closer to real figure.
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DropTheHammer
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1057
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1077 on:
April 03, 2020, 07:51:27 AM »
Horrible that they’re such a bunch of deniers and liars. How do we still not know for certain if those infected can catch it again, and after how long...they must know that in China.
Hopefully when the dust settles we will reverse our 5G decision.
Do people think this will kill HS2?
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Pokerpops
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1428
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1078 on:
April 03, 2020, 08:03:34 AM »
This makes an interesting read.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/04/03/the-hard-choices-covid-policymakers-face?fsrc=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2020-04-02&utm_content=article-link-1
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1079 on:
April 03, 2020, 09:00:52 AM »
Quote from: DropTheHammer on April 03, 2020, 07:51:27 AM
Horrible that they’re such a bunch of deniers and liars. How do we still not know for certain if those infected can catch it again, and after how long...they must know that in China.
Hopefully when the dust settles we will reverse our 5G decision.
Do people think this will kill HS2?
The Chinese are leading attempts to answer the first (reinfection) question and are collaborating internationally.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532754-600-can-you-catch-the-coronavirus-twice-we-dont-know-yet/
Seems unlikely they'll reverse the 5G decision. The anti Chinese sentiment will be pushed hard by the Trump/Breitbart/Telegraph/IDS types but cash will be king on this I think.
I doubt it will be curtains for HS2, impossible to know at this point. It might be that the entire system collapses and has to be built again from scratch, if that does happen this guy should sit on the advisory committee for how to go about it:
[urlhttps://time.com/5803225/yuval-noah-harari-coronavirus-humanity-leadership/][/url]
We just don't know about suppression of Chinese numbers, the evidence is as poor as it gets, anecdotes. We do know that their response was extreme and much earlier than anything we did:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-boris-johnson-china-south-korea-testing-covid-19-pandemic-a9397786.html
I think all countries will be manipulating the figures to some extent, seems like the nudge unit is front and centre in our response. At least we have North Korea to make us all look good in the transparency contest:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/north-koreas-coronavirus-free-claim-met-with-mounting-scepticism
The nudge unit:
[urlhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-government-nudge-unit-dominic-cummings-herd-immunity-a9444306.html][/url]
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