COVID19

[Doobs]

It isn't just getting Covid-19 we have to worry about...

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/this-is-the-psychological-side-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-that-were-ignoring?fbclid=IwAR1C9JAi_uue2QXLQ9v1W79q6Ztc9K1yU13j8_6Ba3zOdpzZOUrHaTi1phY

Lockdown is the world's biggest psychological experiment - and we will pay the price

In short, and perhaps unsurprisingly, people who are quarantined are very likely to develop a wide range of symptoms of psychological stress and disorder, including low mood, insomnia, stress, anxiety, anger, irritability, emotional exhaustion, depression and post-traumatic stress symptoms. Low mood and irritability specifically stand out as being very common, the study notes.

Those in lockdown with others may have observed some of these already...

[Marky147]

My life hasn't changed much, other than the gym.

I was already a green beret in self isolation

[Karabiner]

My life hasn't changed much, other than the gym.

I was already a green beret in self isolation

Sounds like you could do six months of this standing on your head too

[Marky147]

My life hasn't changed much, other than the gym.

I was already a green beret in self isolation

Sounds like you could do six months of this standing on your head too

Done 8 1/2 years, so I'm good as long as they let me out for Vegas

[kukushkin88]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

The other thing (amongst the rest of the 'led by science' nonsense) that is unravelling hard at the moment is the advice on facemasks.

WHO advice has been not to wear to preserve stocks for healthcare workers. We stand pretty much alone now as a nation as not advising masks. From the discussion at last nights briefing, you'd think it hasn't occurred to anyone that the fact we don't have any masks might be a factor in our decision.

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331693/WHO-2019-nCov-IPC_Masks-2020.3-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Confirmation here that you only don't wear masks if you don't have them, especially in a spot like this and sadly that shortages are inevitable, in a spot like this:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30073-0/fulltext
(and some very serious looking maths for JMW)

The BBC article misses the critical point, even though it quotes the WHO (Dr Nabarro) saying that wearing masks will have to become the new norm.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344

The opposing view: (please don't click the link, you can see what it says)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8199959/Face-masks-NOT-stop-healthy-people-catching-coronavirus-says.html

So it would be better to be very open about the shortage of masks being a primary driver for UK policy.

[kukushkin88]

This is not good and we still have the massive underreporting on 5th and 6th of April to come:

https://twitter.com/ons/status/1249978915541655554?s=21

It’ll be interesting to see how many hospitals deaths were left out, it was 300 this time last week.

Whitty seemed to suggest the ONS numbers won’t be up for discussion at the briefings “you can find it on the internet”. I’m not sure they’ll be able to make that stick now.

[kukushkin88]

Clearly we’re missing a lot as well. The ‘excess deaths’ is huge compared to the ‘deaths with Covid 19’, about 2,500 different.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

It seems clear we are over 20,000 fatalities at this moment. Another bad day for that being described as the modelled ‘worst case’ outcome only 9 days ago.

[Woodsey]

Clearly we’re missing a lot as well. The ‘excess deaths’ is huge compared to the ‘deaths with Covid 19’, about 2,500 different.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

It seems clear we are over 20,000 fatalities at this moment. Another bad day for that being described as the modelled ‘worst case’ outcome only 9 days ago.

Where’s the good news?

[Woodsey]

Kuku you missed this bit of doom and gloom, slacking?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52279871

[kukushkin88]

Kuku you missed this bit of doom and gloom, slacking?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52279871

Seems ridiculous (to me) to be calling a big rebound by the end of the year, it’s just optimistic guessing.

[kukushkin88]

Clearly we’re missing a lot as well. The ‘excess deaths’ is huge compared to the ‘deaths with Covid 19’, about 2,500 different.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

It seems clear we are over 20,000 fatalities at this moment. Another bad day for that being described as the modelled ‘worst case’ outcome only 9 days ago.

Where’s the good news?

There’s very little good news but things are definitely looking up for the countries that went hard and early on the lockdown and persisted with contact tracing. They now have options for phased release and some respite to put vital measures in place (PPE/testing regime/huge contact tracing operations etc). They are likely to be able to return to some level of normality relatively soon, not to mention that they’ve suffered far fewer deaths.

[Woodsey]

Clearly we’re missing a lot as well. The ‘excess deaths’ is huge compared to the ‘deaths with Covid 19’, about 2,500 different.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

It seems clear we are over 20,000 fatalities at this moment. Another bad day for that being described as the modelled ‘worst case’ outcome only 9 days ago.

Where’s the good news?

There’s very little good news but things are definitely looking up for the countries that went hard and early on the lockdown and persisted with contact tracing. They now have options for phased release and some respite to put vital measures in place (PPE/testing regime/huge contact tracing operations etc). They are likely to be able to return to some level of normality relatively soon, not to mention that they’ve suffered far fewer deaths.

That’s all assumptions, you don’t really know any of that, they might get a few rebounds and have to keep tightening it back up again, for all we know they might end up with similar numbers of deaths but just over a more prolonged period? By shutting down earlier and hard they might fk their economies way worse than ours and those economic costs may not have been worth it.......nobody really knows, it’ll all come out in the wash in a couple of years most likley.

[Pokerpops]

Clearly we’re missing a lot as well. The ‘excess deaths’ is huge compared to the ‘deaths with Covid 19’, about 2,500 different.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

It seems clear we are over 20,000 fatalities at this moment. Another bad day for that being described as the modelled ‘worst case’ outcome only 9 days ago.

Where’s the good news?

There’s very little good news but things are definitely looking up for the countries that went hard and early on the lockdown and persisted with contact tracing. They now have options for phased release and some respite to put vital measures in place (PPE/testing regime/huge contact tracing operations etc). They are likely to be able to return to some level of normality relatively soon, not to mention that they’ve suffered far fewer deaths.

I lack your ability to recall such matters, so could you tell me which countries went hard and early on lockdown and persisted with contact tracing please.

[kukushkin88]

Clearly we’re missing a lot as well. The ‘excess deaths’ is huge compared to the ‘deaths with Covid 19’, about 2,500 different.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

It seems clear we are over 20,000 fatalities at this moment. Another bad day for that being described as the modelled ‘worst case’ outcome only 9 days ago.

Where’s the good news?

There’s very little good news but things are definitely looking up for the countries that went hard and early on the lockdown and persisted with contact tracing. They now have options for phased release and some respite to put vital measures in place (PPE/testing regime/huge contact tracing operations etc). They are likely to be able to return to some level of normality relatively soon, not to mention that they’ve suffered far fewer deaths.

I lack your ability to recall such matters, so could you tell me which countries went hard and early on lockdown and persisted with contact tracing please.

South Korea*, Singapore, China, NZ, Australia, Finland, Norway, Austria, Germany*, Ireland, Hong Kong, Denmark, Greece, Malaysia, Japan, Israel. If we were using relative to the U.K. as the measure, the list would get a lot longer but I’m not.

* impressive response from Germany, even if their lockdown wasn’t that extreme.

* primarily excellent testing and contact tracing. Probably the country we can learn most from in future, for all practical purposes an island, similar size and similar enough wealth.

France went earlier than us (relatively in the stage of the outbreak) with less warning and seem to be faring better to this point.

Critical two days coming for the U.K. in terms of better understanding where we are. Number of tests still incredibly low 😔. That million to one on 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month is looking far too short now.

[kukushkin88]

Clearly we’re missing a lot as well. The ‘excess deaths’ is huge compared to the ‘deaths with Covid 19’, about 2,500 different.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

It seems clear we are over 20,000 fatalities at this moment. Another bad day for that being described as the modelled ‘worst case’ outcome only 9 days ago.

Where’s the good news?

There’s very little good news but things are definitely looking up for the countries that went hard and early on the lockdown and persisted with contact tracing. They now have options for phased release and some respite to put vital measures in place (PPE/testing regime/huge contact tracing operations etc). They are likely to be able to return to some level of normality relatively soon, not to mention that they’ve suffered far fewer deaths.

I lack your ability to recall such matters, so could you tell me which countries went hard and early on lockdown and persisted with contact tracing please.

South Korea*, Singapore, China, NZ, Australia, Finland, Norway, Austria, Germany*, Ireland, Hong Kong, Denmark, Greece, Malaysia, Japan, Israel. If we were using relative to the U.K. as the measure, the list would get a lot longer but I’m not.

* impressive response from Germany, even if their lockdown wasn’t that extreme.

* primarily excellent testing and contact tracing. Probably the country we can learn most from in future, for all practical purposes an island, similar size and similar enough wealth.

France went earlier than us (relatively in the stage of the outbreak) with less warning and seem to be faring better to this point.

Critical two days coming for the U.K. in terms of better understanding where we are. Number of tests still incredibly low 😔. That million to one on 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month is looking far too short now.

We should add California and maybe Washington State as well.

Also worth adding Macron to the list of people to be admired for the way in which they’ve addressed their nation at an incredibly difficult time.