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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 278094 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2020, 07:36:32 PM »

As long as nobody in the medical day unit has it where I go for my infusion Weds afternoon, I'm not too worried down here in dark Dorchester.

I never get the flu jab, as it's a pain in the ass loading my wheelchair in/out of the car and going to sit in the Dr's surgery for an hour of an evening where there are probably more germs than I'll come into contact with the whole winter.

Worst flu I've ever had was colombian, anyway.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2020, 08:26:30 PM »

Why does this feel more worthy of concern than say Flu which picks off loads of old and people with pre-existing conditions year after year.

Is it as simple as 'we don't have a vaccine' so we worry more or does it transmit more readily, or are there more reasons why we should be more concerned than we are about flu (I mean zillions of people don't bother with flu jabs despite the evidence all around that it can be quite serious).

Even though it's only the very young, the very old and the people with underlying health conditions that are at risk, the death rate of this is almost certainly quite a bit worse than flu.  What the actual real death rate is at the moment we don't know because all the figures are highly manipulated.  You don't die immediately from it, it takes a certain amount of time so you have to measure deaths today vs infections from say 7 days ago? 10 days ago? 14 days ago?.  The longer it takes to kill you the worse the rate in reality is.  This is clearly also contagious, much more so than something like Ebola. 

Of course, yes & thanks. Flu death rate stats are far far lower than this virus, that'll do it.

To give numbers - flu is usually about 0.05% death rate, and the Wuhan Virus is about 2 or 3%

In terms of infectiousness a person with flu usually infects about 1 other person, but with the Wuhan Virus it's more like 3 or 4 people.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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nirvana
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« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2020, 09:14:38 PM »

Why does this feel more worthy of concern than say Flu which picks off loads of old and people with pre-existing conditions year after year.

Is it as simple as 'we don't have a vaccine' so we worry more or does it transmit more readily, or are there more reasons why we should be more concerned than we are about flu (I mean zillions of people don't bother with flu jabs despite the evidence all around that it can be quite serious).

Even though it's only the very young, the very old and the people with underlying health conditions that are at risk, the death rate of this is almost certainly quite a bit worse than flu.  What the actual real death rate is at the moment we don't know because all the figures are highly manipulated.  You don't die immediately from it, it takes a certain amount of time so you have to measure deaths today vs infections from say 7 days ago? 10 days ago? 14 days ago?.  The longer it takes to kill you the worse the rate in reality is.  This is clearly also contagious, much more so than something like Ebola. 

Of course, yes & thanks. Flu death rate stats are far far lower than this virus, that'll do it.

To give numbers - flu is usually about 0.05% death rate, and the Wuhan Virus is about 2 or 3%

In terms of infectiousness a person with flu usually infects about 1 other person, but with the Wuhan Virus it's more like 3 or 4 people.

Cheers, sometimes the obvious just doesn't smack you in the face - looked up death rates and could see the %  was way lower than the 2% that stuck in my mind for this one.
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« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2020, 09:22:51 PM »

The mortality rate looks to be about the same as Spanish Flu, which was seriously bad for the World back in the day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

I think we should expect a lower mortality rate here because our health service is still pretty good despite the recent issues with funding and staffing. 
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SuperJez
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« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2020, 02:25:12 PM »

Is this study or source reputable? (I don't know the answer to that, I saw it linked on another forum)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

Published recently.  It says the death rate is 4.8% "the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%".
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« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2020, 02:46:44 PM »

The problem with using mortality rates and confirmed cases is we ignore as yet unknown but suspected to be huge % of people who have covid and never know.

Personally i've taken the not worrying approach, i may get it, if i do i'm fortunate enough to be healthy and so suspect i may have flu like symptons for a few days.

In terms of event organisers etc its a nightmare, i've also had a trip to Korea cancelled, they are trying to re arrange for mid April but given the escalating situation in Korea this seems unlikely. Again they are not to worried about the health situation but more the travel restrictions people would be under both going and returning.
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Marky147
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« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2020, 03:00:35 PM »

Personally i've taken the not worrying approach, i may get it, if i do i'm fortunate enough to be healthy and so suspect i may have flu like symptons for a few days.

That's the approach I've taken, and I'm not healthy Cheesy
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Jon MW
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« Reply #22 on: February 25, 2020, 08:20:54 PM »

Science wife has been very excited by this virus - her very favourite parts of her degree were the things that kill people and how they are spread.

Is this study or source reputable? (I don't know the answer to that, I saw it linked on another forum)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

Published recently.  It says the death rate is 4.8% "the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%".

She says that it's basically as good as it gets. With an outbreak like this there hasn't been enough time to do thorough peer reviewed papers and get them published so papers like this will be rushed out and the good and bad sorted out later.
(That isn't a slight on the authors - the emphasis is to get as much information out as quickly as possible to help - the one's that get things wrong will often publish their own redactions when it's time to do so; for now it's about getting information out).

If it's right then that is a bit higher than others current estimates - but it would still mean that over 95% of people who get infected will recover. From a statistical point of view I also noticed that the meta-analysis they did covered about 50k patients and that they were nearly all Chinese. That would be a very significant proportion of all the Chinese patients, given they extracted this data from other papers that have already been published I would have thought it was more likely that some of these studies had over-lapping samples. If those samples had unusually high mortality rates then it would have affected the overall average.

The problem with using mortality rates and confirmed cases is we ignore as yet unknown but suspected to be huge % of people who have covid and never know....

She also says they do take this in to account. With every disease there is never an exact number of infections and deaths, there are always just estimates and they will just keep on revising the estimates to make it as accurate as possible.

Additionally - the most likely cause for under reporting is that the symptoms were mild and recovery was straightforward. i.e. the most likely result of under reporting would mean that the infection rate was higher and the fatality rate was lower.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2020, 02:50:15 PM »

Ireland v Italy six nations due for next weekend has now been postponed.  100% a pandemic now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-italy-uk-china-tenerife-death-toll/
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 02:58:10 PM by SuperJez » Logged
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« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2020, 04:11:21 PM »

Ireland v Italy six nations due for next weekend has now been postponed.  100% a pandemic now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-italy-uk-china-tenerife-death-toll/

Feels a bit of an overeaction, though guess the 6 nations is knackered now?  They can't play Italy/England after this?   Cheltenham cancellation is about 3/1 now according to the Guardian (can't be arsed checking betfair as it will just make me grumpy).

The parents at my kids school are flapping as there was a school trip to a non quarantined part of Italy at half term.  There are thousands of kids there and some could have been to worse parts of Italy, Tenerife, Hong Kong etc.   You can't close every school in the country because of this.
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« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2020, 04:18:45 PM »

Ireland v Italy six nations due for next weekend has now been postponed.  100% a pandemic now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-italy-uk-china-tenerife-death-toll/

Feels a bit of an overeaction, though guess the 6 nations is knackered now?  They can't play Italy/England after this?   Cheltenham cancellation is about 3/1 now according to the Guardian (can't be arsed checking betfair as it will just make me grumpy).

The parents at my kids school are flapping as there was a school trip to a non quarantined part of Italy at half term.  There are thousands of kids there and some could have been to worse parts of Italy, Tenerife, Hong Kong etc.   You can't close every school in the country because of this.

Knew I shouldn't have looked, Cheltenham cancellation is 2/1 on betfair now.   Looks a lay to me.  Surely it can't get so bad in 2 weeks?
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SuperJez
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« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2020, 04:35:10 PM »

Ireland v Italy six nations due for next weekend has now been postponed.  100% a pandemic now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-italy-uk-china-tenerife-death-toll/

Feels a bit of an overeaction, though guess the 6 nations is knackered now?  They can't play Italy/England after this?   Cheltenham cancellation is about 3/1 now according to the Guardian (can't be arsed checking betfair as it will just make me grumpy).

The parents at my kids school are flapping as there was a school trip to a non quarantined part of Italy at half term.  There are thousands of kids there and some could have been to worse parts of Italy, Tenerife, Hong Kong etc.   You can't close every school in the country because of this.

Knew I shouldn't have looked, Cheltenham cancellation is 2/1 on betfair now.   Looks a lay to me.  Surely it can't get so bad in 2 weeks?

Somebody with flu infects 1 other person on average, for Covid-19 it's about 4-5 other people on average.  As another poster pointed out a death rate of 4-5% is not going to be the end of the world but it is nasty and imo Cheltenham and the Grand National are likely to be called off.  The cat is definitely out of the bag now.  Football fans in Manchester are probably wondering if this thing can stop Liverpool winning the league 
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Doobs
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« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2020, 04:38:21 PM »

Ireland v Italy six nations due for next weekend has now been postponed.  100% a pandemic now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-italy-uk-china-tenerife-death-toll/

Feels a bit of an overeaction, though guess the 6 nations is knackered now?  They can't play Italy/England after this?   Cheltenham cancellation is about 3/1 now according to the Guardian (can't be arsed checking betfair as it will just make me grumpy).

The parents at my kids school are flapping as there was a school trip to a non quarantined part of Italy at half term.  There are thousands of kids there and some could have been to worse parts of Italy, Tenerife, Hong Kong etc.   You can't close every school in the country because of this.

Knew I shouldn't have looked, Cheltenham cancellation is 2/1 on betfair now.   Looks a lay to me.  Surely it can't get so bad in 2 weeks?

Somebody with flu infects 1 other person on average, for Covid-19 it's about 4-5 other people on average.  As another poster pointed out a death rate of 4-5% is not going to be the end of the world but it is nasty and imo Cheltenham and the Grand National are likely to be called off.  The cat is definitely out of the bag now.  Football fans in Manchester are probably wondering if this thing can stop Liverpool winning the league 

Get backing Cheltenham cancellation on betfair please.   

The mortality rate is very unlikely to be 4-5% on known figures. 
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SuperJez
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« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2020, 04:53:44 PM »

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/horse-racing/market/1.169321914

Quite a liquid market already, yes putting on here.
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« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2020, 05:26:57 PM »

Just spent the last 2 and a half weeks in the Philippines (landed back this morning), everything was fine.

I'd say to anyone with trips to Asia on the horizon to crack on and enjoy it, take advantage of fewer tourists with the Chinese essentially currently unable to travel.

Had a 100m stretch of beach in Boracay all to myself most days, absolute bliss.
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