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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 77369 times)
neeko
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« Reply #2280 on: May 15, 2020, 10:05:28 AM »

I wonder if there are any results out yet about how long serological tests remain positive for CV19 patients who have recovered. Presumably there is a list of people who have been positive, so you can test them at monthly intervals, be good to know what results China have on this as they are 3 months away from many infections.

If antibodies vanish after less than 6 months, then an IFR of 0.6 would have the same death rate as antibodies existing (immunity) lasting a year and an IFR of 1.2.

If immunity lasts less than 6 months and the IFR is >1 then things don’t look good, mind you the value of a future pension cratering won’t matter as no will live long drawing it down.

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tonytats
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« Reply #2281 on: May 17, 2020, 11:54:28 AM »

I tested positive last Sunday 10 th
No real symptoms
Few smal hot flushes lasting ten -15 mins
Got result 48 hrs later
So came home n rested up
I’ve been a bit breathless more than usual
Had a tingling /shingles type sensation on my forehead / around my eyes
No temperature no cough
The shits on n off
Feeling a bit weak n tired

 I went for a test as I’m now courier driving and have been delivering Ppe to huge food chain supply warehouses
Now I’d like to test obv negative before returning to work
But no one can answer if that’s necessary ?
Denise n Marie - daughter are negative so far

Nhs test says if no temperature after 7 days carry on as normal - 7 days was 10 am this morning
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tonytats
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« Reply #2282 on: May 17, 2020, 11:55:13 AM »

Will Covid 19 mutate and become Covid 20-21 in the winter ?
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Doobs
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« Reply #2283 on: May 17, 2020, 04:15:33 PM »

I tested positive last Sunday 10 th
No real symptoms
Few smal hot flushes lasting ten -15 mins
Got result 48 hrs later
So came home n rested up
I’ve been a bit breathless more than usual
Had a tingling /shingles type sensation on my forehead / around my eyes
No temperature no cough
The shits on n off
Feeling a bit weak n tired

 I went for a test as I’m now courier driving and have been delivering Ppe to huge food chain supply warehouses
Now I’d like to test obv negative before returning to work
But no one can answer if that’s necessary ?
Denise n Marie - daughter are negative so far

Nhs test says if no temperature after 7 days carry on as normal - 7 days was 10 am this morning

The UK rules are 7 days from first symptoms.  WHO recommends 14 days from last symptoms.   

If it were me, I'd go 14 days from first symptoms (or 7 from last?) as that is the recommended length of time from first symptoms from someone in your household.  7 days from first symptoms seems optimistic given that pnemonia and the bug downtown happens about that time for those that get seriously ill.  Given all the PPE doctors and nurses should wear when most of those thyey are treating started more than 7 days ago then I am not sure why it is still 7 days.  Given your role, I wouldn't want to be out spredding it about and if you still feel a bit shit, I wouldn't go in.

At the start of all this, our youngest was not allowed back in school for 14 days with a cough, but that was interupted by the general closure.  My cousin has been struggling on and off for weeks and it was probably 3 or 4 weeks  before she really started to get better.  From my understanding there were ups and downs.

Hope you get better Tony, and the rest of the family stay safe.

 

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nirvana
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« Reply #2284 on: May 17, 2020, 07:37:46 PM »

I tested positive last Sunday 10 th
No real symptoms
Few smal hot flushes lasting ten -15 mins
Got result 48 hrs later
So came home n rested up
I’ve been a bit breathless more than usual
Had a tingling /shingles type sensation on my forehead / around my eyes
No temperature no cough
The shits on n off
Feeling a bit weak n tired

 I went for a test as I’m now courier driving and have been delivering Ppe to huge food chain supply warehouses
Now I’d like to test obv negative before returning to work
But no one can answer if that’s necessary ?
Denise n Marie - daughter are negative so far

Nhs test says if no temperature after 7 days carry on as normal - 7 days was 10 am this morning

Give yourself a few more days , glad you're OK
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Marky147
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« Reply #2285 on: May 17, 2020, 08:20:39 PM »

No virus is going to stay alive too long inside our Tony Grin
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2286 on: May 18, 2020, 04:32:58 PM »


An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21
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EvilPie
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« Reply #2287 on: May 18, 2020, 05:05:22 PM »

Purely anecdotal but an interesting one from a fellow dog walker who I haven't spoken to since just prior to lock down.

Last time I saw him, he and his wife who both work in A&E or E.D. as it's called at the QMC in Nottingham were in full panic mode ready for what was just round the corner.

Spoke to him on Saturday and he said it actually ended up being "not too bad at all". He said that they were massively over prepared and over staffed (not in a bad way of course) and that it was far less stressful than they had expected.

He said that they were helped by general A&E admissions being massively down from 150 per day to 60 per day (not the exact numbers but about that from what I recall).

This may of course tie in with that twitter thread. Maybe there were 90 people per day dying at home instead of being at A&E because they were too scared to go and face the covids........?

Obviously it's going to be different at every trust but it was interesting to hear the perspective of a 'front line' A&E nurse.
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nirvana
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« Reply #2288 on: May 18, 2020, 05:10:55 PM »


An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21

Don't you find all this rather pointless. I don't think the analysis is helping to determine a better approach today and it's basically taking a punt on things that will be more meaningfully revealed in the fullness of time
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2289 on: May 18, 2020, 05:22:58 PM »


An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21

Don't you find all this rather pointless. I don't think the analysis is helping to determine a better approach today and it's basically taking a punt on things that will be more meaningfully revealed in the fullness of time

I have time on my hands and an interest in whether it’s a good thing to be governed by leading figures in the post truth post truth movement. It can have application now. If you look at biggest % increase mortality of any nation, biggest proportion of deaths outside of hospital, biggest number of deaths of under 64 year olds etc, you might question things like....should I trust them about sending my children back to school or sending people back to work.
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Marky147
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« Reply #2290 on: May 18, 2020, 05:40:10 PM »

Purely anecdotal but an interesting one from a fellow dog walker who I haven't spoken to since just prior to lock down.

Last time I saw him, he and his wife who both work in A&E or E.D. as it's called at the QMC in Nottingham were in full panic mode ready for what was just round the corner.

Spoke to him on Saturday and he said it actually ended up being "not too bad at all". He said that they were massively over prepared and over staffed (not in a bad way of course) and that it was far less stressful than they had expected.

He said that they were helped by general A&E admissions being massively down from 150 per day to 60 per day (not the exact numbers but about that from what I recall).

This may of course tie in with that twitter thread. Maybe there were 90 people per day dying at home instead of being at A&E because they were too scared to go and face the covids........?

Obviously it's going to be different at every trust but it was interesting to hear the perspective of a 'front line' A&E nurse.

Think most likely a combination of all factors. Or at least that makes the most sense.

Less weekend warriors, less trivial hospital visits for things they shouldn't be there for anyway. Our version of a lockdown, and trying to enforce social distancing and reduced contact for the period.

Then on the other end, you've got the unfortunate ones that suffer more as they avoid going when they should, and at the worst point those who sadly died.

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tonytats
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« Reply #2291 on: May 18, 2020, 06:21:51 PM »

 Government / nhs advice is very clear in the email
I must self isolate for 7 days from test date
If on day 8 I have no fever
I can go out / back to work
If someone pms me their e mail I will forward to post it on here
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nirvana
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« Reply #2292 on: May 18, 2020, 06:41:30 PM »


An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21

Don't you find all this rather pointless. I don't think the analysis is helping to determine a better approach today and it's basically taking a punt on things that will be more meaningfully revealed in the fullness of time

I have time on my hands and an interest in whether it’s a good thing to be governed by leading figures in the post truth post truth movement. It can have application now. If you look at biggest % increase mortality of any nation, biggest proportion of deaths outside of hospital, biggest number of deaths of under 64 year olds etc, you might question things like....should I trust them about sending my children back to school or sending people back to work.

Yah, maybe so, fair enough
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RickBFA
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« Reply #2293 on: May 18, 2020, 06:53:09 PM »


An interesting thread, hard to argue with his conclusions:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1262392352439701513?s=21

Don't you find all this rather pointless. I don't think the analysis is helping to determine a better approach today and it's basically taking a punt on things that will be more meaningfully revealed in the fullness of time

I have time on my hands and an interest in whether it’s a good thing to be governed by leading figures in the post truth post truth movement. It can have application now. If you look at biggest % increase mortality of any nation, biggest proportion of deaths outside of hospital, biggest number of deaths of under 64 year olds etc, you might question things like....should I trust them about sending my children back to school or sending people back to work.

What would your policy on returning children to school be?

A gradual return from 1st June (subject to the R caveats) seems a sensible step.

Most reasonable people including a previous labour education secretary seem too agree.

WHO have said in countries where schools have remained open there is no evidence of infection hot spots.

It’s surely about a sensible balance of risk. Plenty of workers in this country are doing that day in day out.


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jakally
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« Reply #2294 on: May 18, 2020, 07:25:12 PM »

and an interest in whether it’s a good thing to be governed by leading figures in the post truth post truth movement.

Kush, do not try to kid yourself, or anyone else, that you are still trying to form your view on the above.

You made a post a few pages back that implied you took a balanced view of these events (I can't remember the exact words & context, so apologies if that slightly misrepresents, but I remember it made me spit my coffee out).

I like the stuff you post, & read as much as I can of the links, but there is little doubt of it's starting point & direction.


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