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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353767 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #2235 on: May 12, 2020, 10:44:54 AM »


This is quite brutal, I assume we’d agree the source is reputable enough for this to be taken on trust? Clear reasons why whistleblowers would want anonymity:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-care-homes-faced-funding-cut-if-they-didnt-take-in-covid-19-patients-11986578

Lots of pieces of information, plus anecdotal stuff, pointing towards care homes being the area which was neglected / not recognised for the high risk area it is / completely mismanaged, & consequently the biggest tragedy of all of this.

Hope that's not the case.

Good morning all

It goes without saying that these are remarkable times but this is a sad landmark, for a government that can’t stop bragging about all the spare capacity in hospitals:

https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/1260130423314808832?s=21
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2236 on: May 12, 2020, 12:38:43 PM »


Part time furlough is coming in, seems eminently sensible and good news for Matt.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #2237 on: May 12, 2020, 12:46:41 PM »

furloughing scheme will be extended for four months until the end of October

There will be no changes to the scheme until end of July

From August employers will be able to bring furloughed employers back part time


Think this is genuinely impressive stuff, and Sunak has been really good throughout
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2238 on: May 12, 2020, 01:11:30 PM »

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?


We should regularly revisit these questions, in a fair and balanced way. It’s not a dig at you to keep doing that of course.

UK Covid deaths are 40,026 (this number is a significant underestimate), the gap to the other heavily impacted Euro nations will keep widening for a while yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-40000-official-figures-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-40000-official-figures-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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arbboy
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« Reply #2239 on: May 12, 2020, 01:43:07 PM »

excess deaths from mid march to may 1 on the lunchtime news stated 50,000.   That's the only figure that really matters.  Thousands have been killed by not seeking medical help for fear of getting CV in hospital.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #2240 on: May 12, 2020, 01:44:06 PM »

How the Anglo-American model failed to tackle coronavirus

Even before the pandemic hit, both nations had been stripped of the people and systems required to respond effectively

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/anglo-american-coronavirus-crisis

think it is an important and damning read.

Ready to get shredded here but.....

Have we really failed?

NHS not overwhelmed, that was always the aim of flattening the curve

The headlines about the worst death rate are massively misleading are they not?
We have a larger more dense population than Italy or Spain, one of the busiest airports in the world and our current deaths are well under theirs?
(Based on neither Italy or Spain currently including care home deaths, and Italy's healthcare system being overwhelmed so 1000s died during treatment at home.)

We are taking baby steps to lift the lock down the same as those countries have already started without having to enforce such a strict lock down.

We do appear to have failed on testing and obtaining PPE (our contact took the 3 day weekend off so we still don't have a decision on the 4m gowns!)

Sure last nights message could have been a lot clearer but are we not doing okay in a horrific situation?


We should regularly revisit these questions, in a fair and balanced way. It’s not a dig at you to keep doing that of course.

UK Covid deaths are 40,026 (this number is a significant underestimate), the gap to the other heavily impacted Euro nations will keep widening for a while yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-40000-official-figures-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-40000-official-figures-say?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Don't worry about me being offended, I'm here to learn.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2241 on: May 12, 2020, 01:58:05 PM »

The other reason to use comparators is to narrow it down to a sensible list.

Comparing 5 countries which have plenty of things in common means there's not too much to look at and there's not too much to complain about them not being valid comparisons.

Assuming my treatment restarts (I’m pretty sure it will), I will have an abundance of time in the months ahead. We shouldn’t let time needed to collate the data be a limiting factor in our study. I terms of how valid a measure it is, I would be sure it’s a better measure than nation specific modelled scenarios.

I was thinking a bit more about this and specifically to the much discussed modelling at the early stages. My knowledge of modelling academically and professionally is hydraulic modelling/fluid dynamics. I’m sure you’ll know this stuff but worth discussing anyway, especially if you can point out flaws in my thinking, as it applies to the epidemic.

Imagine you are trying to model the flow dynamics of a previously unknown fluid (pretend we’re talking about water and river beds). It would be difficult to accurately model the flow dynamics of the previously unknown fluid. If you had the opportunity to observe the behaviour of the fluid in a different river but one that had some similarities, you would learn a great deal more than you could by modelling any other fluid on an a river with the specific characteristics of your own river. The nature of the fluid (in our situation, the virus) is so critical to what you’re trying to learn, that it more than compensates for the problems with imperfect comparisons. I might be able to explain it better, please let me know if that makes sense.

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« Reply #2242 on: May 12, 2020, 02:05:05 PM »

furloughing scheme will be extended for four months until the end of October

There will be no changes to the scheme until end of July

From August employers will be able to bring furloughed employers back part time


Think this is genuinely impressive stuff, and Sunak has been really good throughout

Yes. Credit where it is due. I struggle to imagine the party as a whole are overly happy about this but for now it seems to be the right thing to do.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2243 on: May 12, 2020, 02:06:07 PM »

When I say ‘explain it better’, that’s not meant to sound condescending at all, what I mean is probably more like ‘think about it better’, so that I can write it down in a way that makes more sense 😊.
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« Reply #2244 on: May 12, 2020, 02:42:43 PM »

excess deaths from mid march to may 1 on the lunchtime news stated 50,000.   That's the only figure that really matters.  Thousands have been killed by not seeking medical help for fear of getting CV in hospital.

Killed makes it sound like people are deliberately stopping them getting help.

It is probably partially true because not all these excess deaths will be directly linked to Covid, but the vast majority are currently Covid related.  If you look at the CMI reports, the recent hump is very pronounced.

Without doubt, there will be plenty more excess deaths down the line from other things due to treatment delays caused by both hospitals and reluctant  patients. 

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2245 on: May 12, 2020, 03:35:22 PM »


is every bit as dangerously incompetent as The Donald:

https://twitter.com/wateruk/status/1259893298518544391?s=21
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2246 on: May 12, 2020, 04:27:48 PM »


The ‘impossible’ double, is definitely on:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1260228554060595205?s=21
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2247 on: May 12, 2020, 04:44:43 PM »


The ‘impossible’ double, is definitely on:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1260228554060595205?s=21

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Need to scroll down a bit for the excess charts.
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jakally
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« Reply #2248 on: May 12, 2020, 05:12:17 PM »


Significant variance in the amount of data for each nation - UK to early May, & Italy to the end of March only.

Watched this earlier - nothing very new but some filler to subjects of issues pre-lockdown &  care homes.

Worth a look.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000j6ry


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« Reply #2249 on: May 13, 2020, 05:14:10 AM »

This is a long read (about 40 pages) but does a good job of pulling together all the pieces of the UK decision making up to lockdown.
The tone is balanced & non-hysterical - obviously that will deter some.

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/survival-blog/2020/05/the-uk-and-covid-19
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