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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 66730 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #2370 on: May 21, 2020, 04:56:28 PM »

Here are some Covid simulations that show you what happens in the future under various scenarios.  lockdown/no lockdown, vaccine/no vaccine etc, herd immunity/flattening the curve(!)

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR312UbNw4VD2mYau2sZXsnHza9gtmgcuseprRcyTEAfla6ZhxIocKlxJA8

So you can see what happens under scaredycat and Nirvana scenarios and anything imbetween.  There is even a model at the end, where you can put in any assumptions you want, so you can play Professor Ferguson. 
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« Reply #2371 on: May 21, 2020, 10:04:06 PM »

Matt Hancock has announced that 17% of Londoners and 5%+ of the rest of the Country have had Covid

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/21/17-londoners-5-rest-uk-have-coronavirus-antibodies-12739901/

I couldn't see the sample size or any evidence on the DHSC twitter, though the Mail claims 1,000 in total.  Hancock acknowleged a bigger sample was needed, which begs the question why release if your sample isn't big enough?  17% sems a suspiciously accurate number if they have only sampled a hundred people in London.  I think it is already clear that London has more cases than elsewhere, just wouldn't be confdent if they are as low as 10% or as high as 20%.

I'd also worry about claims like this in the Mail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8344967/Britains-COVID-divide-One-five-people-London-coronavirus.html

This suggests that the death rate in London is considerably lower - around 0.62 per cent - than it is in the rest of the UK around it, where it appears to be closer to 1.39 per cent.

We don't know if they were just random fluctuations based on small samples or timing issues.  Late April to early May could mean samples were taken over 2 weeks or 4 weeks?  This wouldn'tnormally be an issue, but deaths were doubling every 3 days at some points, so the same would be true of infections, and there is likely at least a couple of weeks lag from infection to antibodies.   

This is also a very good point

One expert suggested this could be because the average age of people in London is younger and COVID-19 is known to be more deadly for the elderly. And they claimed the price of land may mean there are fewer care homes, which have been ravaged by the coronavirus since the crisis began to spiral out of control in March.

I'd be waiting a bit longer before making any claims about different regional mortality rates right now. 
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« Reply #2372 on: May 21, 2020, 11:53:49 PM »

Here are some Covid simulations that show you what happens in the future under various scenarios.  lockdown/no lockdown, vaccine/no vaccine etc, herd immunity/flattening the curve(!)

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR312UbNw4VD2mYau2sZXsnHza9gtmgcuseprRcyTEAfla6ZhxIocKlxJA8

So you can see what happens under scaredycat and Nirvana scenarios and anything imbetween.  There is even a model at the end, where you can put in any assumptions you want, so you can play Professor Ferguson. 

That's an interesting site for sure.

I have to say, as each day goes by, I'm less and less interested in the detail and models and just feel it's absurd that we're damaging lives and futures to the extent we are based on tiny absolute numbers of people sub 65 dying from this. The fear level is way out of proportion to the actuality and in just about every major country it looks to me like if they had simply managed the flow of people in and out of care homes in a smarter way then the absolute numbers dead would look even less frightening.

If we take a holistic view of lives ended by war, displacement, genocides, natural disasters (several hundred thousands dying in a single event), cancer, heart disease, dementia etc,  it feels a bit self indulgent to wrap ourselves in cotton wool over a virus that is something like flu plus (y'all can define 'plus' - I only know it's plus).

Still feel it's quite simple from here - improve procedures into and out of care homes and hospitals and let other old and vulnerable decide for themselves how they want to live their life in the new reality.

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« Reply #2373 on: May 22, 2020, 07:43:07 AM »

Here are some Covid simulations that show you what happens in the future under various scenarios.  lockdown/no lockdown, vaccine/no vaccine etc, herd immunity/flattening the curve(!)

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR312UbNw4VD2mYau2sZXsnHza9gtmgcuseprRcyTEAfla6ZhxIocKlxJA8

So you can see what happens under scaredycat and Nirvana scenarios and anything imbetween.  There is even a model at the end, where you can put in any assumptions you want, so you can play Professor Ferguson. 

That's a really good source of information. Learnt a lot from that.
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« Reply #2374 on: May 22, 2020, 10:15:45 AM »

Here are some Covid simulations that show you what happens in the future under various scenarios.  lockdown/no lockdown, vaccine/no vaccine etc, herd immunity/flattening the curve(!)

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR312UbNw4VD2mYau2sZXsnHza9gtmgcuseprRcyTEAfla6ZhxIocKlxJA8

So you can see what happens under scaredycat and Nirvana scenarios and anything imbetween.  There is even a model at the end, where you can put in any assumptions you want, so you can play Professor Ferguson. 

That's a really good source of information. Learnt a lot from that.

Yep, there is a few things I hadn't clocked before. 
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« Reply #2375 on: May 22, 2020, 10:34:58 AM »

Here are some Covid simulations that show you what happens in the future under various scenarios.  lockdown/no lockdown, vaccine/no vaccine etc, herd immunity/flattening the curve(!)

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR312UbNw4VD2mYau2sZXsnHza9gtmgcuseprRcyTEAfla6ZhxIocKlxJA8

So you can see what happens under scaredycat and Nirvana scenarios and anything imbetween.  There is even a model at the end, where you can put in any assumptions you want, so you can play Professor Ferguson. 

That's an interesting site for sure.

I have to say, as each day goes by, I'm less and less interested in the detail and models and just feel it's absurd that we're damaging lives and futures to the extent we are based on tiny absolute numbers of people sub 65 dying from this. The fear level is way out of proportion to the actuality and in just about every major country it looks to me like if they had simply managed the flow of people in and out of care homes in a smarter way then the absolute numbers dead would look even less frightening.

If we take a holistic view of lives ended by war, displacement, genocides, natural disasters (several hundred thousands dying in a single event), cancer, heart disease, dementia etc,  it feels a bit self indulgent to wrap ourselves in cotton wool over a virus that is something like flu plus (y'all can define 'plus' - I only know it's plus).

Still feel it's quite simple from here - improve procedures into and out of care homes and hospitals and let other old and vulnerable decide for themselves how they want to live their life in the new reality.



It isn't a tiny number.   The expected total number of expected UK extra deaths is in the sane ballpark as those from World War 2 (roughly 500,000) and the under 65 deaths would be 50,000+ (the latest I saw was 11% of deaths were under 65, higher for men, lower for women). 

I think the endgame is just various different types of lockdown until we get a vaccine.  Even Sweden has a kind of lockdown, just different to ours.  Most of the next year or so may well be a lot more like Sweden with more advice and less strict rules.  People need good information though.  Still calling it flu plus and various other ways of underplaying it isn't helpful.

FWIW I have seen the plans from my kid's school.  7 desks in a 30 child classroom for now, though guess that moves around with the "lockdown" rules.  It certainly wouldn't work in September.
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« Reply #2376 on: May 22, 2020, 10:52:39 AM »

Max Silver's twiter poll

Rank the following activities in order from safest to least safe in a covid19 world where businesses are taking as sensible precautions as possible (your best guess)

- gym
- live poker
- pub
- cinema
- strip club
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nirvana
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« Reply #2377 on: May 22, 2020, 11:10:12 AM »

Here are some Covid simulations that show you what happens in the future under various scenarios.  lockdown/no lockdown, vaccine/no vaccine etc, herd immunity/flattening the curve(!)

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR312UbNw4VD2mYau2sZXsnHza9gtmgcuseprRcyTEAfla6ZhxIocKlxJA8

So you can see what happens under scaredycat and Nirvana scenarios and anything imbetween.  There is even a model at the end, where you can put in any assumptions you want, so you can play Professor Ferguson. 

That's an interesting site for sure.

I have to say, as each day goes by, I'm less and less interested in the detail and models and just feel it's absurd that we're damaging lives and futures to the extent we are based on tiny absolute numbers of people sub 65 dying from this. The fear level is way out of proportion to the actuality and in just about every major country it looks to me like if they had simply managed the flow of people in and out of care homes in a smarter way then the absolute numbers dead would look even less frightening.

If we take a holistic view of lives ended by war, displacement, genocides, natural disasters (several hundred thousands dying in a single event), cancer, heart disease, dementia etc,  it feels a bit self indulgent to wrap ourselves in cotton wool over a virus that is something like flu plus (y'all can define 'plus' - I only know it's plus).

Still feel it's quite simple from here - improve procedures into and out of care homes and hospitals and let other old and vulnerable decide for themselves how they want to live their life in the new reality.



It isn't a tiny number.   The expected total number of expected UK extra deaths is in the sane ballpark as those from World War 2 (roughly 500,000) and the under 65 deaths would be 50,000+ (the latest I saw was 11% of deaths were under 65, higher for men, lower for women). 

I think the endgame is just various different types of lockdown until we get a vaccine.  Even Sweden has a kind of lockdown, just different to ours.  Most of the next year or so may well be a lot more like Sweden with more advice and less strict rules.  People need good information though.  Still calling it flu plus and various other ways of underplaying it isn't helpful.

FWIW I have seen the plans from my kid's school.  7 desks in a 30 child classroom for now, though guess that moves around with the "lockdown" rules.  It certainly wouldn't work in September.
What's the 500k number?
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« Reply #2378 on: May 22, 2020, 11:13:34 AM »

Max Silver's twiter poll

Rank the following activities in order from safest to least safe in a covid19 world where businesses are taking as sensible precautions as possible (your best guess)

- gym
- live poker
- pub
- cinema
- strip club


Gym
Cinema
Strip club
Pub
Live poker

Which coincidentally is also the safest to least safe order without Covid 19.


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« Reply #2379 on: May 22, 2020, 11:33:02 AM »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347131/The-future-Wetherspoons-Boss-Tim-Martin-reveals-plans-REOPEN-875-pubs.html

Having a few pints sounds as enjoyable as going to the dentist moving forward.
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« Reply #2380 on: May 22, 2020, 03:24:16 PM »

Max Silver's twiter poll

Rank the following activities in order from safest to least safe in a covid19 world where businesses are taking as sensible precautions as possible (your best guess)

- cinema
- strip club
- live poker
- pub
- gym

I assume everyone wears masks and broadly obeys the social distancing.

Also assuming that CV19 is an airborne disease that has a bit of contact transmission (whose risk can be minimised by hand washing), but the physical effort of the gym, causes breathing which escapes the mask and makes the low ceiling height of gyms concentrate the aerosolised virus in the most dangerous way.
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« Reply #2381 on: May 22, 2020, 06:50:56 PM »

Max Silver's twiter poll

Rank the following activities in order from safest to least safe in a covid19 world where businesses are taking as sensible precautions as possible (your best guess)

- gym
- live poker
- pub
- cinema
- strip club


Gym
Cinema
Strip club
Pub
Live poker

Which coincidentally is also the safest to least safe order without Covid 19.




You must play poker and go to different strip clubs to ones I've ever frequented Tom.

I feel about 100 times safer playing poker than in gentlemen's clubs!
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 06:55:17 PM by The Camel » Logged

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« Reply #2382 on: May 22, 2020, 07:54:02 PM »

Max Silver's twiter poll

Rank the following activities in order from safest to least safe in a covid19 world where businesses are taking as sensible precautions as possible (your best guess)

- cinema
- strip club
- live poker
- pub
- gym

I assume everyone wears masks and broadly obeys the social distancing.

Also assuming that CV19 is an airborne disease that has a bit of contact transmission (whose risk can be minimised by hand washing), but the physical effort of the gym, causes breathing which escapes the mask and makes the low ceiling height of gyms concentrate the aerosolised virus in the most dangerous way.

In that Canadian link the other day it talked about a big cluster in a choir that sang for a few hours in an enclosed space.  The extra effort from singing meant that more virus came from deeper in the lungs.  It has been similar in meat packing facilities where not only are people close together they need to shout a lot.  I think you must get similar in gyms where people should be naturally breathing more heavily.  I'd definitely prefer a cinema. 

I think the main issue with poker tournaments is that you can be stuck there for 10 hours, do if somebody is infected in the room, you have a good chance of getting a high viral load just because of time.

Pubs can be shouty environments, but it depends.  Would be happy eating for a couple of hours with space between tables.  Wouldn't be happy standing in a bustling town centre pub watching the footie.

Strip clubs, you csm get close to people, buy budget constraints mean you arren't hanging round long.

Cinema
Quiet Pub
Strip Club
Gym (but get it over quickly and out)
Poker tournament/Bustling pub
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« Reply #2383 on: May 22, 2020, 08:12:19 PM »

Here are some Covid simulations that show you what happens in the future under various scenarios.  lockdown/no lockdown, vaccine/no vaccine etc, herd immunity/flattening the curve(!)

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR312UbNw4VD2mYau2sZXsnHza9gtmgcuseprRcyTEAfla6ZhxIocKlxJA8

So you can see what happens under scaredycat and Nirvana scenarios and anything imbetween.  There is even a model at the end, where you can put in any assumptions you want, so you can play Professor Ferguson. 

That's an interesting site for sure.

I have to say, as each day goes by, I'm less and less interested in the detail and models and just feel it's absurd that we're damaging lives and futures to the extent we are based on tiny absolute numbers of people sub 65 dying from this. The fear level is way out of proportion to the actuality and in just about every major country it looks to me like if they had simply managed the flow of people in and out of care homes in a smarter way then the absolute numbers dead would look even less frightening.

If we take a holistic view of lives ended by war, displacement, genocides, natural disasters (several hundred thousands dying in a single event), cancer, heart disease, dementia etc,  it feels a bit self indulgent to wrap ourselves in cotton wool over a virus that is something like flu plus (y'all can define 'plus' - I only know it's plus).

Still feel it's quite simple from here - improve procedures into and out of care homes and hospitals and let other old and vulnerable decide for themselves how they want to live their life in the new reality.



It isn't a tiny number.   The expected total number of expected UK extra deaths is in the sane ballpark as those from World War 2 (roughly 500,000) and the under 65 deaths would be 50,000+ (the latest I saw was 11% of deaths were under 65, higher for men, lower for women). 

I think the endgame is just various different types of lockdown until we get a vaccine.  Even Sweden has a kind of lockdown, just different to ours.  Most of the next year or so may well be a lot more like Sweden with more advice and less strict rules.  People need good information though.  Still calling it flu plus and various other ways of underplaying it isn't helpful.

FWIW I have seen the plans from my kid's school.  7 desks in a 30 child classroom for now, though guess that moves around with the "lockdown" rules.  It certainly wouldn't work in September.
What's the 500k number?

Expected deaths from Covid in the UK even if they run it up to herd immunity slowly.

I think they need to be more honest. 

I think a lot of people think that it will get better in a few months and don't see the need for stepping up measures in the future.   But if only 5% are exposed nationwide at the minute, it could be a really long haul.   I wouldn't be celebrating too quickly in Australia and New Zealand.  Keeping to 1% exposure is great in the short term. It seems a lot of people worldwide are been dishonest about an underlying herd immunity strategy.

There is also a lot of underplaying of the total deaths expected.  If we are currently at 60,000 deaths from 5% exposure, the trip to herd immunity at 60% exposure could be really painful.   

I don't see how we keep R below 1 without some pretty strong guidance.  Letting people make their own choices when sources of info include Ian Duncan Smith, Farage and Toby Young feels disastrous.   If you read through the comments section of the BBC and popular papers makes me think a lot of people aren't getting the info they need to make sensible decisions.

Yeah, go round your nan's house and sit in the garden, it feels pretty low risk. 
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« Reply #2384 on: May 22, 2020, 11:39:43 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52779356

Looks like Boris under pressure on this one.

Bound to be pressure for Cummings to go.
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