COVID19

[arbboy]

No deaths confirmed in Aberdeen.  They just moved onto 'lolcases' now.   Death figures don't matter.   Its like the government and pitbull are trying to send us skint.   We could have 10000 cases in Aberdeen and no deaths and they would shut the city for a year.

the cases are mainly in the 20-40 year age bracket least at risk but they are mixing now with the older and more vulnerable people got to lock down so they dont pass it on

Most older/vunerable types who will catch it and die from it already have (my gran among them before anyone says i am talking with self interest) hence why excess deaths are down 6 weeks straight.   If you are old and vunerable you need to stay at home and let the under 50s do their thing and pay your pension imo.   It's getting pointlessly risk averse now the strategy.   4 months ago it was all about saving the NHS nothing remotely has been said like that for weeks.

yeah there is a difference between going to work and doing stuff and socializing down the pub spreading the virus then nipping to the grandparents for Sunday roast  with a hang over though.  Pretty hard on the over 50s to tell them to stay indoors and not see anyone while the under 50s go on pub crawls with strangers

The under 50s have to take some responsibility not to walk into a city centre boozer that is rammed though right?   I have been going into pubs for the last month and haven't got within 6 feet of anyone.   The one thing i don't get in all these rammed city centre pubs is how they stayed like that all night without the police being involved and sorting it out?  How does that happen in a big city?

[Ironside]

No deaths confirmed in Aberdeen.  They just moved onto 'lolcases' now.   Death figures don't matter.   Its like the government and pitbull are trying to send us skint.   We could have 10000 cases in Aberdeen and no deaths and they would shut the city for a year.

the cases are mainly in the 20-40 year age bracket least at risk but they are mixing now with the older and more vulnerable people got to lock down so they dont pass it on

Most older/vunerable types who will catch it and die from it already have (my gran among them before anyone says i am talking with self interest) hence why excess deaths are down 6 weeks straight.   If you are old and vunerable you need to stay at home and let the under 50s do their thing and pay your pension imo.   It's getting pointlessly risk averse now the strategy.   4 months ago it was all about saving the NHS nothing remotely has been said like that for weeks.

yeah there is a difference between going to work and doing stuff and socializing down the pub spreading the virus then nipping to the grandparents for Sunday roast  with a hang over though.  Pretty hard on the over 50s to tell them to stay indoors and not see anyone while the under 50s go on pub crawls with strangers

The under 50s have to take some responsibility not to walk into a city centre boozer that is rammed though right?   I have been going into pubs for the last month and haven't got within 6 feet of anyone.   The one thing i don't get in all these rammed city centre pubs is how they stayed like that all night without the police being involved and sorting it out?  How does that happen in a big city?

its ridiculous there was 28 bars and cafes effected 3 golf clubs and a football club. No way the police could close down all the bars on the night without there being riots the photos of the queues to get in are unreal

[Doobs]

There is a lot of these type of statements saying School's risk is low.
 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-schools-reopen-children-covid-study-boris-johnson-a9661686.html

But isn't a lot of the evidence from before the time Covid was widely spread?  And that isn't just here, schools have been closed and kids have been on holiday in most places.  So there isn't really that much evidence from open schools when Covid is widespread.

And this is more recent, and I get it isn't exactly the same, but the percentages infected are so high that it should be a warning of what really could happen if prevention measures are lax.   

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/health/coronavirus-children-camp.html

Our kids won't have mandatory face masks either, and though I expect mass singing is unlikely, our 14 year olds aren't going to be shouting at each other?    With the best will in the World, how long before the person supervising the playground just gets tired of telling kids to stop shouting at each other, and for how long do kids really take that instruction on board even if it was given?

And over a couple of weeks before the first case gets found, how many kids are going to have shared spaces, then screamed and shouted at each other?   FWIW I don't think face masks are going to be much help if you spend 2 weeks in the same bubble as Covid kid. 

Taleb would say here that absence of evidence isn't the same as evidence of absence.  He probably has already, but I haven't checked.

[Doobs]

There is a lot of these type of statements saying School's risk is low.
 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-schools-reopen-children-covid-study-boris-johnson-a9661686.html

But isn't a lot of the evidence from before the time Covid was widely spread?  And that isn't just here, schools have been closed and kids have been on holiday in most places.  So there isn't really that much evidence from open schools when Covid is widespread.

And this is more recent, and I get it isn't exactly the same, but the percentages infected are so high that it should be a warning of what really could happen if prevention measures are lax.   

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/health/coronavirus-children-camp.html

Our kids won't have mandatory face masks either, and though I expect mass singing is unlikely, our 14 year olds aren't going to be shouting at each other?    With the best will in the World, how long before the person supervising the playground just gets tired of telling kids to stop shouting at each other, and for how long do kids really take that instruction on board even if it was given?

And over a couple of weeks before the first case gets found, how many kids are going to have shared spaces, then screamed and shouted at each other?   FWIW I don't think face masks are going to be much help if you spend 2 weeks in the same bubble as Covid kid. 

Taleb would say here that absence of evidence isn't the same as evidence of absence.  He probably has already, but I haven't checked.

Didn't have to go far back to get a relevant tweet

https://mobile.twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1292412009477214208

There is no "evidence" a spear through the skull represents significant danger, since I never saw a "peer-reviewed" paper to that effect.

[MintTrav]

I am further along the 'more careful' line re Covid than just about anyone I know. My friends are going to restaurants and bars, and into each others' houses, even in groups of three or four, none of whom live together. They would literally be having quiet drinks, definitely not involved in any of the raucous behaviour. I haven't been anywhere, though I have met with friends outdoors, and had a friend to visit tonight for the first time.

I haven't been back to my family in Dublin since the start of the year, and I spoke with my brother and sister tonight to say I might fly over for a couple of days this week, mainly with a view to having a window-visit with my mother. To say they weren't keen is an understatement. My brother just went quiet, so I could tell he didn't approve, and then he just said I should wait a few more weeks. He didn't offer for me to stay, which he always does. My sister said I could stay with her, but I would have to go straight to a bedroom when I arrive and stay there, and she would bring meals to my room. She also said I have to hire a car, as I mustn't travel on public transport. When I suggested that it would be okay to use the sitting room if we kept apart, and that I might use a bus, she said it's not negotiable.

Ireland has had few Covid deaths lately (though infections have started increasing again) - 5 Covid deaths in the last two weeks, 14 in the two weeks before that and 46 in the month before that. Pubs and restaurants are still closed. It has divided the world into Red and Green countries, though countries can move up or down - five countries were demoted to Red last week. The UK is Red, which means people arriving from this high-risk country have to quarantine for two weeks.

I was taken aback by how the mind-sets are so different. My family is completely persuaded of the requirement to still be ultra-cautious, despite being in a lower-death country, whereas people here who I regard as sensible have slipped into fairly casual habits, without any visible adverse reaction. Portsmouth, where I live (pop 238,000), has had no Covid deaths for over two months. Both groups can't be right, can they? My family's attitude seems excessive to me, but I assume it's representative of the population in Ireland, and I suspect I have been drawn along with the general relaxation in attitudes here, without realising it, even if I haven't been participating. If my family is right, then I definitely shouldn't be allowing anyone into my house here, and going to a pub or restaurant should remain out of the question. I feel like I don't agree with either group, yet I can see how their position looks reasonable from their perspective.

I could tell that my brother and sister thought my attitude was reckless, while I know people here who think I am being excessively cautious. I suspect that people reading this in the UK will be surprised at how my family sees it and would side with my friends. But how do reasonable people in one country mostly come to one conclusion and those in another country think the opposite? Is it that we are so suggestible that we can be made to think whatever our government wants, while thinking that we are making our own decisions? I don't know what I think any more.

[Jon MW]

I am further along the 'more careful' line re Covid than just about anyone I know. My friends are going to restaurants and bars, and into each others' houses, even in groups of three or four, none of whom live together. They would literally be having quiet drinks, definitely not involved in any of the raucous behaviour. I haven't been anywhere, though I have met with friends outdoors, and had a friend to visit tonight for the first time.

I haven't been back to my family in Dublin since the start of the year, and I spoke with my brother and sister tonight to say I might fly over for a couple of days this week, mainly with a view to having a window-visit with my mother. To say they weren't keen is an understatement. My brother just went quiet, so I could tell he didn't approve, and then he just said I should wait a few more weeks. He didn't offer for me to stay, which he always does. My sister said I could stay with her, but I would have to go straight to a bedroom when I arrive and stay there, and she would bring meals to my room. She also said I have to hire a car, as I mustn't travel on public transport. When I suggested that it would be okay to use the sitting room if we kept apart, and that I might use a bus, she said it's not negotiable.

Ireland has had few Covid deaths lately (though infections have started increasing again) - 5 Covid deaths in the last two weeks, 14 in the two weeks before that and 46 in the month before that. Pubs and restaurants are still closed. It has divided the world into Red and Green countries, though countries can move up or down - five countries were demoted to Red last week. The UK is Red, which means people arriving from this high-risk country have to quarantine for two weeks.

That's what your post reminded me of at least, maybe different

I was taken aback by how the mind-sets are so different. My family is completely persuaded of the requirement to still be ultra-cautious, despite being in a lower-death country, whereas people here who I regard as sensible have slipped into fairly casual habits, without any visible adverse reaction. Portsmouth, where I live (pop 238,000), has had no Covid deaths for over two months. Both groups can't be right, can they? My family's attitude seems excessive to me, but I assume it's representative of the population in Ireland, and I suspect I have been drawn along with the general relaxation in attitudes here, without realising it, even if I haven't been participating. If my family is right, then I definitely shouldn't be allowing anyone into my house here, and going to a pub or restaurant should remain out of the question. I feel like I don't agree with either group, yet I can see how their position looks reasonable from their perspective.

I could tell that my brother and sister thought my attitude was reckless, while I know people here who think I am being excessively cautious. I suspect that people reading this in the UK will be surprised at how my family sees it and would side with my friends. But how do reasonable people in one country mostly come to one conclusion and those in another country think the opposite? Is it that we are so suggestible that we can be made to think whatever our government wants, while thinking that we are making our own decisions? I don't know what I think any more.

Something I mentioned early on which plays a significant part is luck.

There are some countries which have had super strict lockdowns - but still have had plenty of infections
There are some countries who have been relaxed - and have had hardly any

I think this filters down to the personal level.

The UK might have a lot higher infection rate than Ireland, but it's absolute value is still low. People can go out and socialise and ignore social distancing and there's a reasonable chance that you'd just never come into contact with anyone to catch COVID19 from - but on the other hand, you might. The difference between a super spreader event and a non event can be just timing and luck.

That's what your post reminded me of at least, differences in attitudes of large populations might be reflective of their attitutudes to authority but also to how they handle luck maybe?

[EvilPie]

The encouraging thing about MintTrav's family is that it shows there is balance amongst the population.

All we read about is the 'idiots' on beaches and in pubs but that's of course because they make for interesting news.

His family are being what I would consider overly cautious. They could probably relax a little bit without causing significant risk but I 100% respect whatever they choose to do as long as it falls within the rules.

I have some family members who are being completely irresponsible. My aunt is organising a house warming party combined with a 40th wedding anniversary. I've been invited but won't be going. I can guarantee there will be a minimum of 50 of what I would class as irresponsible idiots there. These are my family and I love them but at the same time I think it's utterly disgusting what they're doing.

I like to think of myself as being somewhere in the middle, I'm not breaking any rules but I'm taking advantage of lifted restrictions as soon as they are implemented. I go to the pub and I go to the gym but whilst there I stick to the rules as far as I am aware.

If we have one overly cautious person for every idiot then hopefully it balances out somewhere down the line....

[EvilPie]

That's what your post reminded me of at least, differences in attitudes of large populations might be reflective of their attitutudes to authority but also to how they handle luck maybe?

Or how f**king stupid they are?

Referring back to my family members who are having a party in a few weeks time; they have an apartment in Spain near the costa del sol. My aunt is refusing to go there because she doesn't want to catch Covid and pass it on to her husband who has some restricted breathing issues.

She's also busily organising a party for 50+ people in her house......

Go figure.

[RED-DOG]

The encouraging thing about MintTrav's family is that it shows there is balance amongst the population.

All we read about is the 'idiots' on beaches and in pubs but that's of course because they make for interesting news.

His family are being what I would consider overly cautious. They could probably relax a little bit without causing significant risk but I 100% respect whatever they choose to do as long as it falls within the rules.

I have some family members who are being completely irresponsible. My aunt is organising a house warming party combined with a 40th wedding anniversary. I've been invited but won't be going. I can guarantee there will be a minimum of 50 of what I would class as irresponsible idiots there. These are my family and I love them but at the same time I think it's utterly disgusting what they're doing.

I like to think of myself as being somewhere in the middle, I'm not breaking any rules but I'm taking advantage of lifted restrictions as soon as they are implemented. I go to the pub and I go to the gym but whilst there I stick to the rules as far as I am aware.

If we have one overly cautious person for every idiot then hopefully it balances out somewhere down the line....

I'm afraid it doesn't work like that though.

If you find yourself along with 20 other guests stranded in a big house on the moors during a freak storm, it only takes one deranged lunatic to murder everyone. The 19 normal people won't balance him out.

[EvilPie]

The encouraging thing about MintTrav's family is that it shows there is balance amongst the population.

All we read about is the 'idiots' on beaches and in pubs but that's of course because they make for interesting news.

His family are being what I would consider overly cautious. They could probably relax a little bit without causing significant risk but I 100% respect whatever they choose to do as long as it falls within the rules.

I have some family members who are being completely irresponsible. My aunt is organising a house warming party combined with a 40th wedding anniversary. I've been invited but won't be going. I can guarantee there will be a minimum of 50 of what I would class as irresponsible idiots there. These are my family and I love them but at the same time I think it's utterly disgusting what they're doing.

I like to think of myself as being somewhere in the middle, I'm not breaking any rules but I'm taking advantage of lifted restrictions as soon as they are implemented. I go to the pub and I go to the gym but whilst there I stick to the rules as far as I am aware.

If we have one overly cautious person for every idiot then hopefully it balances out somewhere down the line....

I'm afraid it doesn't work like that though.

If you find yourself along with 20 other guests stranded in a big house on the moors during a freak storm, it only takes one deranged lunatic to murder everyone. The 19 normal people won't balance him out.

The 19 other people in the house aren't 'normal' though are they? They're 'idiots'.

To make your example work as an analogy you have to assume that it's widely publicised that there's a deranged lunatic knocking about who likes to murder everyone.

If you find yourself along with 20 other guests and the deranged lunatic you are likely to get murderised.

It's recommended that to avoid this situation you don't find yourself in a big house with 20 other people in case one of them happens to be said deranged lunatic.

The normal people are the ones who aren't in this house at all. They're safely at home following the rules to avoid deranged lunatics.

[RED-DOG]

The encouraging thing about MintTrav's family is that it shows there is balance amongst the population.

All we read about is the 'idiots' on beaches and in pubs but that's of course because they make for interesting news.

His family are being what I would consider overly cautious. They could probably relax a little bit without causing significant risk but I 100% respect whatever they choose to do as long as it falls within the rules.

I have some family members who are being completely irresponsible. My aunt is organising a house warming party combined with a 40th wedding anniversary. I've been invited but won't be going. I can guarantee there will be a minimum of 50 of what I would class as irresponsible idiots there. These are my family and I love them but at the same time I think it's utterly disgusting what they're doing.

I like to think of myself as being somewhere in the middle, I'm not breaking any rules but I'm taking advantage of lifted restrictions as soon as they are implemented. I go to the pub and I go to the gym but whilst there I stick to the rules as far as I am aware.

If we have one overly cautious person for every idiot then hopefully it balances out somewhere down the line....

I'm afraid it doesn't work like that though.

If you find yourself along with 20 other guests stranded in a big house on the moors during a freak storm, it only takes one deranged lunatic to murder everyone. The 19 normal people won't balance him out.

The 19 other people in the house aren't 'normal' though are they? They're 'idiots'.

To make your example work as an analogy you have to assume that it's widely publicised that there's a deranged lunatic knocking about who likes to murder everyone.

If you find yourself along with 20 other guests and the deranged lunatic you are likely to get murderised.

It's recommended that to avoid this situation you don't find yourself in a big house with 20 other people in case one of them happens to be said deranged lunatic.

The normal people are the ones who aren't in this house at all. They're safely at home following the rules to avoid deranged lunatics.

Bugger!   

[Jon MW]

That's what your post reminded me of at least, differences in attitudes of large populations might be reflective of their attitutudes to authority but also to how they handle luck maybe?

Or how f**king stupid they are?

...

John was talking about how 'sensible' people come up with different views.

For example there are those that would think that socially distancing in a pub or a gym is a low risk activity, and others who would think it's massively irresponsible - that's differences of opinion at the sensible end of the scale.

Obviously when it gets to the end of the scale where people think it's okay to travel around to massive house parties and the like it's a lot easier to see the underlying cause.

[bergeroo]

How do people feel about going to play live poker in the scale of safety/responsibility? More risky than the pub? How about the gym?

Certainly better than organising a house party, however in a bigger tourney field you may share a table with 30-40 different people over the day and sit next to 5-10 different people.

6 max cash sanitizing your hands regularly and wearing a mask. How about that?

If you are living with an older person or a more vulnerable person, should you go and play live poker? - let's say it opens up before the end of the year.

[RED-DOG]

How do people feel about going to play live poker in the scale of safety/responsibility? More risky than the pub? How about the gym?

Certainly better than organising a house party, however in a bigger tourney field you may share a table with 30-40 different people over the day and sit next to 5-10 different people.

6 max cash sanitizing your hands regularly and wearing a mask. How about that?

If you are living with an older person or a more vulnerable person, should you go and play live poker? - let's say it opens up before the end of the year.

Sitting for hours cheek by jowl with a succession of strangers in a crowded room, all handling the same cards and chips...

I can hardly think of a worse scenario.

[The Camel]

How do people feel about going to play live poker in the scale of safety/responsibility? More risky than the pub? How about the gym?

Certainly better than organising a house party, however in a bigger tourney field you may share a table with 30-40 different people over the day and sit next to 5-10 different people.

6 max cash sanitizing your hands regularly and wearing a mask. How about that?

If you are living with an older person or a more vulnerable person, should you go and play live poker? - let's say it opens up before the end of the year.

Sitting for hours cheek by jowl with a succession of strangers in a crowded room, all handling the same cards and chips...

I can hardly think of a worse scenario.

sad to say I cannot imagine playing live poker again until I've been vaccinated.