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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 150723 times)
EvilPie
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« Reply #3150 on: October 13, 2020, 09:54:50 AM »

please read the section talking about it

bottom of page 4

Yep, it delays it for 28 days but doesn't fix anything does it?

You would have to do one of these every other month?

And for it to be as effective as the first you would have to stop the majority of people going to work, and close schools again?

I just don't buy that a circuit breaker is a great fix, and the tier system is a terrible fix. Neither of them are a fix, they both just delay the inevitable and currently the hospitals are not overwhelmed and the deaths are not rising in line with the first wave.



Hospitals are definitely getting busier again though.

We get figures sent to us for the QMC in Nottingham and it's noticeably increased in recent weeks.

First time we had numbers was 20th May when it was 52 suspected cases, 100 confirmed cases, 626 discharged cases and 240 deaths.

The trough was around 22nd July at 17 suspected, 9 confirmed, 895 discharged and 272 deaths

Latest today is 33 suspected, 98 confirmed, 1109 discharged and 280 deaths

I'm not really sure what to make of this but the optimist in me can't help but see the death figure not moving too much despite the recent increase in cases

Bear in mind that these are all cases sufficiently bad to require hospitalisation and still plenty are surviving.
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EvilPie
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« Reply #3151 on: October 13, 2020, 09:59:43 AM »

it buys time. as the March one did

that time can get the Northern nightingale hospitals online ahead of the winter, for example

Of course, if the government is going to waste that time, or fail to execute with the time given to them by lockdowns as it did in the Summer, then any lasting impact is of course lacking

Without a vaccine or an effective test and trace (in NZ they had a small outbreak from people flying into the country, and traced the transmission source to a hotel lift button!), then this is life for the foreseeable future isn't it?


This is just a guess of course but I'd be amazed if they need those Nightingales.

No idea where they came up with that 'lift button' bull shit. They must have a CSI script writer on the story telling panel. Just apply a bit of common sense and there's absolute zero chance you can narrow something down to that level of accuracy.



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« Reply #3152 on: October 13, 2020, 10:02:54 AM »

Quite odd that Labour don't appear to be holding government to account very well. Reminds me of their Brexit position where they appeared to try and be all things to all men. Gonna be fascinating if Biden wins to see whether changing Govt can change the course of a crisis like this in an acceptable way to the majority of a population.
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« Reply #3153 on: October 13, 2020, 10:39:55 AM »

it buys time. as the March one did

that time can get the Northern nightingale hospitals online ahead of the winter, for example

Of course, if the government is going to waste that time, or fail to execute with the time given to them by lockdowns as it did in the Summer, then any lasting impact is of course lacking

Without a vaccine or an effective test and trace (in NZ they had a small outbreak from people flying into the country, and traced the transmission source to a hotel lift button!), then this is life for the foreseeable future isn't it?


Completely but assuming the foreseeable future is realistically another 18 months at least these lock down cycles do more harm than good in my opinion.
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« Reply #3154 on: October 13, 2020, 10:48:21 AM »

Sure hospitals are busier, but the hospitalisations and deaths just are not close to what they were in April/May

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« Reply #3155 on: October 13, 2020, 01:31:39 PM »

The problem is any Government has to consider lots of issues - not just the Covid outbreak in the overall decision making process.

If the only objective is to manage the virus then they should have followed the advice but that of course is only one part of the jigsaw.

To say the Government are ignoring SAGE advice is way too simplistic.

We all know this. The balance is extremely hard to strike.

The SAGE report says :


"All these interventions listed above have associated costs in terms of health and
wellbeing and many interventions will affect the poorest members of society to a
greater extent. Measures will be needed urgently to mitigate these effects and to
achieve equity and social justice."

So taking the SAGE advice in isolation isnt really sensible when Government have to balance the financial effects, mental health impacts, other health issues this creates etc.
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« Reply #3156 on: October 13, 2020, 01:49:55 PM »

Sure hospitals are busier, but the hospitalisations and deaths just are not close to what they were in April/May



at the current rate of growth they say they will be at that level in a couple of weeks, we need to stop that happening
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« Reply #3157 on: October 13, 2020, 02:12:35 PM »

Sure hospitals are busier, but the hospitalisations and deaths just are not close to what they were in April/May



at the current rate of growth they say they will be at that level in a couple of weeks, we need to stop that happening

They said we would be at 50k cases a day by now, that was garbage too.
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« Reply #3158 on: October 13, 2020, 02:25:49 PM »

Sure hospitals are busier, but the hospitalisations and deaths just are not close to what they were in April/May



at the current rate of growth they say they will be at that level in a couple of weeks, we need to stop that happening

They said we would be at 50k cases a day by now, that was garbage too.

no they did not. they said that was a worst case if no other measures were put in place. other measures were put in place, such as the rule of six etc (or what we see now is tier 1 for the new regulations)
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the sicilian
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« Reply #3159 on: October 13, 2020, 02:54:02 PM »

Sure hospitals are busier, but the hospitalisations and deaths just are not close to what they were in April/May



at the current rate of growth they say they will be at that level in a couple of weeks, we need to stop that happening

think the same was said here a couple of weeks ago..hasnt happened..doubling etc...
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« Reply #3160 on: October 13, 2020, 03:02:49 PM »

Sure hospitals are busier, but the hospitalisations and deaths just are not close to what they were in April/May



at the current rate of growth they say they will be at that level in a couple of weeks, we need to stop that happening

They said we would be at 50k cases a day by now, that was garbage too.

no they did not. they said that was a worst case if no other measures were put in place. other measures were put in place, such as the rule of six etc (or what we see now is tier 1 for the new regulations)

Sure they said that was worst case but what has actually been done in the 3 weeks between 21 Sep and 15 Oct?
I mean the government performance has probably been just about the worst case possible so why haven't we hit that worst case scenario?

The rule of 6 was in place well before they made that statement and local lock downs were being rolled out.

The SAGE team are as incompetent as the rest of them.



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« Reply #3161 on: October 13, 2020, 04:27:00 PM »

I am more pre-disposed to think the scientists at least have an untainted professional view more than the politicans, especially this government of incompetents (possibly worse than incompetent too) notwithstanding the difficulty of any decisions they have to make

Meanwhile

* 143 new UK coronavirus deaths recorded - highest daily rise since early June & nearly double last Tuesday.
* 17,234 new cases reported.
* 655 new covid patients admitted, taking total to 4,367 in hospital on Sun 11th Oct.
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the sicilian
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« Reply #3162 on: October 13, 2020, 04:33:31 PM »

I am more pre-disposed to think the scientists at least have an untainted professional view more than the politicans, especially this government of incompetents (possibly worse than incompetent too) notwithstanding the difficulty of any decisions they have to make

Meanwhile

* 143 new UK coronavirus deaths recorded - highest daily rise since early June & nearly double last Tuesday.
* 17,234 new cases reported.
* 655 new covid patients admitted, taking total to 4,367 in hospital on Sun 11th Oct.

is 143 hospital recorded ?
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« Reply #3163 on: October 13, 2020, 04:43:27 PM »

I am more pre-disposed to think the scientists at least have an untainted professional view more than the politicans, especially this government of incompetents (possibly worse than incompetent too) notwithstanding the difficulty of any decisions they have to make

Meanwhile

* 143 new UK coronavirus deaths recorded - highest daily rise since early June & nearly double last Tuesday.
* 17,234 new cases reported.
* 655 new covid patients admitted, taking total to 4,367 in hospital on Sun 11th Oct.

is 143 hospital recorded ?

not sure, tbh. i will look out for more detail
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the sicilian
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« Reply #3164 on: October 13, 2020, 04:46:36 PM »

odd they treble the day after announcement when these are the NHS official hospital figures for the last two weeks which were pretty steady

28-Sep-20   29-Sep-20   30-Sep-20   01-Oct-20   02-Oct-20   03-Oct-20   04-Oct-20   05-Oct-20   06-Oct-20   07-Oct-20   08-Oct-20   09-Oct-20   10-Oct-20   11-Oct-20   12-Oct-20
37   33   41   43   44   36   33   35   46   56   51   34   45   46   15
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