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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 150690 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #3195 on: October 14, 2020, 10:12:30 AM »


https://www.thisisanfield.com/2020/10/liverpools-covid-19-cases-the-absurdity-of-international-football-in-a-global-pandemic/

I don't know about the meaningful matches.  I am probably on the fence, as couldn't you make a similar case for stopping club matches?  Footballers don't stay in their club bubbles full time, so are bound to mix outside the bubble even if they don't fly to Internationals.  And wouldn't the family bubble be more important than the club bubble and so on?

But why are we having international friendlies right now?
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« Reply #3196 on: October 14, 2020, 12:30:36 PM »

because they want to complete Euro 2021 qualifying, on the assumption that the world will be normal enough to host it next summer..note though the games are across multiple countires with much more travel than a one country host. the Nations league i agree, not needed and an unneccessary set of games
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« Reply #3197 on: October 14, 2020, 03:01:50 PM »

NEW: Two of government's scientific advisers tell the FT thousands of deaths - between 3,000 and as many as 107,000 - could be avoided by January if a circuit breaker lockdown is imposed over half term

I don't like this either as it just seems separated from reality.  You shut down for a couple of weeks only and save 100,000?   It just seems a bit fanciful given we had to shut down for much longer in March to turn it around.  People are more knowledgeable now, but compliance is no longer as high post Cummings.  It probably isn't a surprise that the North tends to be struggling worse given the level of distrust of the Government there.  I can see a couple of weeks taking R down to 1 or so, but as soon as you stop, why don't the cases just start rising again?

Anyway, despite my disdain for the above, I think we are pretty much near 50k cases a day already.  50k was where we would be if we didn't take any measures, and much of what has been done hasn't really changed much.  17,500 known cases could easily be 35 to 50k real cases due to unkown asymptomatics, people who aren't showing symptoms, people who couldn't get a test or to a test easily and people who realise they are sick but do not see the value of getting a test.  I saw someone saying yesterday that the ONS had suggested that we are likely at 46,000 or so, but I couldn't see their latest estimate when I just looked.  It feels not far off the truth to me anyway.

Hospital admissions are also rising.  They are up 10 fold since the 1 September (58 to 628 on the 11 October) https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/.  Beds are now supposedly as full as they were in March, but it isn't the same right now as cases are rising significantly more slowly than they were then.

Death are rising rapidly.  I think yesterday's number was probably a bit of an outlier, but it is clear that the days of 10 deaths a day have gone, and we are likely up around 100 deaths a day and will be likely at 200 by the start of November.  It is just a matter of time before deaths follow admissions that follow cases.

200 deaths a day is 6,000 a month, or 30,000 over the winter if the Government manages to level off the increase.  200 a day isn't the likely high point, or a worst case scenario, it is where we are heading right now if the Government gets it under control.  The worst case scenario is going to be grimmer than the first wave, albeit less sudden and spread over a longer time period.   We may get lucky, Spain mght have managed to level off their increases by targetted lockdowns (though it may be because they have adjusted their figures lower again).  So it is possible that the cases peak at 200 a day and start falling, though that scenario is tending towards wishful thinking.

Also to answer the usual "but more people die of flu and pneumonia" comment, the ONS produced this the other day.  The confusion is around the cause of death and deaths involving (pneumonia is a disease that often gets people at the end after the main cause has ravaged ther bodies).  Anyway the link is here; figure 1 shows what they believe the comparison is, and Covid has killed way more than flu over the last few months.  Many countries in the Southern Hemisphere have been reporting very low flu deaths in their 2020 flu season due to Covid supression measures.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

Pokerpops asked about excess deaths.  Excess deaths are very useful when overall Covid deaths are high, as it was simple to see the likely Covid deaths when total deaths were double what they were nomally at peak Covid.  It was no use at all when there were only 10 people dying of Covid a day in the summer.  Tem people a day is nothing compared to the normal daily deaths in the UK, so random fluctuation is going to be more significant than Covid deaths.  The CMI are still monitoring them in their weekly reports here.  https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/continuous-mortality-investigation/other-cmi-outputs/mortality-monitor.  They seem as good a source as any for unbiassed information at the current time.  If you look at the ;latest bulletin there are very small numbers of excess deaths right now, but those are likely to be more obvious going into November.

Just to balance things up, if you think you have cancer, get it looked at, if you are feeling bad, talk to someone.  These things are important too.
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« Reply #3198 on: October 14, 2020, 03:14:30 PM »

Bit niche maybe, but on a lighter note.





A spot of light relief. Thanks.

I played a holiday round of golf a few years ago with an actuary. He told me the difference between an extrovert actuary, and an introvert actuary.
Apparently when you are talking to an extrovert actuary, he stares at your shoes...

Thanks also to Doobs and to JonMW for their continued attempts to educate. The raft of statistics and charts makes it pretty easy for people to see what they choose to see within the figures. Having what feels like an unbiased view from someone whose expertise lies in reading the numbers and their source/background makes a big difference.
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« Reply #3199 on: October 14, 2020, 03:39:02 PM »

Wales are to ban travellers from UK Covid hot spots ?? looool

How ?

They know they are not Mexico right ?
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« Reply #3200 on: October 14, 2020, 04:11:00 PM »

Wales are to ban travellers from UK Covid hot spots ?? looool

How ?

They know they are not Mexico right ?

AsK them if they call a bread roll a barm, cob or bap.

job done
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« Reply #3201 on: October 14, 2020, 05:01:47 PM »

Wales are to ban travellers from UK Covid hot spots ?? looool

How ?

They know they are not Mexico right ?

AsK them if they call a bread roll a barm, cob or bap.

job done

Grin
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« Reply #3202 on: October 14, 2020, 05:16:45 PM »

I knew this lockdown would all end in tiers...
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« Reply #3203 on: October 14, 2020, 08:24:56 PM »

NEW: Two of government's scientific advisers tell the FT thousands of deaths - between 3,000 and as many as 107,000 - could be avoided by January if a circuit breaker lockdown is imposed over half term

I don't like this either as it just seems separated from reality.  You shut down for a couple of weeks only and save 100,000?   It just seems a bit fanciful given we had to shut down for much longer in March to turn it around.  People are more knowledgeable now, but compliance is no longer as high post Cummings.  It probably isn't a surprise that the North tends to be struggling worse given the level of distrust of the Government there.  I can see a couple of weeks taking R down to 1 or so, but as soon as you stop, why don't the cases just start rising again?

Anyway, despite my disdain for the above, I think we are pretty much near 50k cases a day already.  50k was where we would be if we didn't take any measures, and much of what has been done hasn't really changed much.  17,500 known cases could easily be 35 to 50k real cases due to unkown asymptomatics, people who aren't showing symptoms, people who couldn't get a test or to a test easily and people who realise they are sick but do not see the value of getting a test.  I saw someone saying yesterday that the ONS had suggested that we are likely at 46,000 or so, but I couldn't see their latest estimate when I just looked.  It feels not far off the truth to me anyway.

Hospital admissions are also rising.  They are up 10 fold since the 1 September (58 to 628 on the 11 October) https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/.  Beds are now supposedly as full as they were in March, but it isn't the same right now as cases are rising significantly more slowly than they were then.

Death are rising rapidly.  I think yesterday's number was probably a bit of an outlier, but it is clear that the days of 10 deaths a day have gone, and we are likely up around 100 deaths a day and will be likely at 200 by the start of November.  It is just a matter of time before deaths follow admissions that follow cases.

200 deaths a day is 6,000 a month, or 30,000 over the winter if the Government manages to level off the increase.  200 a day isn't the likely high point, or a worst case scenario, it is where we are heading right now if the Government gets it under control.  The worst case scenario is going to be grimmer than the first wave, albeit less sudden and spread over a longer time period.   We may get lucky, Spain mght have managed to level off their increases by targetted lockdowns (though it may be because they have adjusted their figures lower again).  So it is possible that the cases peak at 200 a day and start falling, though that scenario is tending towards wishful thinking.

Also to answer the usual "but more people die of flu and pneumonia" comment, the ONS produced this the other day.  The confusion is around the cause of death and deaths involving (pneumonia is a disease that often gets people at the end after the main cause has ravaged ther bodies).  Anyway the link is here; figure 1 shows what they believe the comparison is, and Covid has killed way more than flu over the last few months.  Many countries in the Southern Hemisphere have been reporting very low flu deaths in their 2020 flu season due to Covid supression measures.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsduetocoronaviruscovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumoniaenglandandwales/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31august2020

Pokerpops asked about excess deaths.  Excess deaths are very useful when overall Covid deaths are high, as it was simple to see the likely Covid deaths when total deaths were double what they were nomally at peak Covid.  It was no use at all when there were only 10 people dying of Covid a day in the summer.  Tem people a day is nothing compared to the normal daily deaths in the UK, so random fluctuation is going to be more significant than Covid deaths.  The CMI are still monitoring them in their weekly reports here.  https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/continuous-mortality-investigation/other-cmi-outputs/mortality-monitor.  They seem as good a source as any for unbiassed information at the current time.  If you look at the ;latest bulletin there are very small numbers of excess deaths right now, but those are likely to be more obvious going into November.

Just to balance things up, if you think you have cancer, get it looked at, if you are feeling bad, talk to someone.  These things are important too.


Regretfully, must dismiss some of the maths based speculation on account of unproven narratives like the North has more issues because they trust the Government less.
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« Reply #3204 on: October 15, 2020, 09:52:26 AM »

Wales are to ban travellers from UK Covid hot spots ?? looool

How ?

They know they are not Mexico right ?


Having delivered to South Wales almost daily in the last lockdown
I was never stopped once n questioned
Almost never saw police
Rumours of police blockades on the way in across the Severn bridge were completely false
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« Reply #3205 on: October 15, 2020, 10:29:15 AM »

Nottingham town was very quiet last night.

Not sure how long the pubs/bars can stay open under these rules.

No problems anywhere explaining my adoption of a little 6'4 Mr Russell.

Walked out of the last pub at 10pm as the barmaid ushered us out and removed Mr Russell's 1/4 of a pint so we were out the door just before 10pm and rightly so, he should drink faster!

No idea where they had all been hiding, but the streets of Nottingham then looked like a Saturday night with students everywhere waiting for taxi's, buses, queuing up for Tesco.

Absolutely insane scenes!
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« Reply #3206 on: October 15, 2020, 11:00:30 AM »

Charnwood (loughborough Uni area in Leicester) has overtaken Leicester city centre itself numbers wise in positives.   It still is tier 1 whilst Leiicester city itself is tier 2!  It has some potential tier 3 wise 5 huge unis all within 30 miles of each other especially given its a relatively rural area inbetween nottingham and Leics.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 11:16:59 AM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #3207 on: October 15, 2020, 12:26:22 PM »

London, Essex, parts of Derbyshire into tier 2 from saturday. Not sure what has changed in the 48 hours since Tuesday's national traffic light announcement

Manchester and Lancashire into tier 3 pending, still, dust up with local mayors on going
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« Reply #3208 on: October 15, 2020, 12:39:43 PM »

From the weekend half of the population of England will be living under either Tier 2 or Tier 3 of the Covid restrictions
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« Reply #3209 on: October 16, 2020, 02:24:17 PM »

15 mins but a "good" watch

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