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RickBFA
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« Reply #3180 on: October 13, 2020, 07:04:08 PM »

It’s the old trick of reporting the worst possible case scenario to create headlines routine.
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« Reply #3181 on: October 13, 2020, 07:08:47 PM »

Really interesting stats today. Cornwall was heaving over the last few months - loads of tourism, most hospitality businesses full and covid secure, full supermarkets, shops open.

Net result of all that seems to be cases are falling.

Uni's and schools go back and naturally, cases are rising.

All schools and Unis should close and all pubs, businesses and restaurants should be open if having lower cases and fewer over 80s dying is the name of the game.

Just caught up with the thread and the reason there are no issues there is because there are no Uni's.  Pubs/restaurants have never been safer/cleaner to go until most hours of the day (outside of the student type hours).  Would it really have been that hard to close Uni's for the entire year?  most students love a 'lolgap' year anyway.  It's pretty obvious unis have caused the spike.  Nottiingham wasn't even on the radar until 60000+ students landed back in town all drinkings/shagging and, quite rightly, doing all the things students do.   Why couldn't students have been furloughed for a year by giving them a year free fees wise next year?  Most of them could stay at home with their parents rent/bill free for a year anyway.   Just seems too obvious to me.  Schools are a totally different animal to uni's.   Young kids development is way more important than discretionary 'adult' education which could easily be delayed a year.   If the students really wanted to crack on with their degree and miss out on a year of 'student lifestyle' outside of the classroom then they would have been offered online only facility with zero fees for this year and the government funded it.

Why repost this nonsense after it has already been discredited.  Cases increased 10 fold between the beginning of July and the beginning of September?  There hasn't really been any increase in the growth rate since then.  If anything it has slowed, hence Stuart Hopkin asking why we aren't at 50,000.

Isn't it just the lolGovernment casting round for people to blame other than themselves?   Next week they'll be back to immigrants.  And what happens when young adults who have been behaving irresponsibly go back to their home towns, do they become model citizens?   I suspect responsibile students will behave responsibly at home and irresponsible students will carry on much the same as they did in the summer and they did when they were away at Uni.  Sure they won't be in big halls, but instead they'll be mixing with their mates and going back to vulnerable old farts at home.  Swings and roundabouts and I don't think it is nearly as significant as it is made out to be.   I strongly suspect most students are responsible and we only ever see the worst excesses.  Big cities were hot beds of transmission last time and will be this time too regardless of students.



Extremely harsh on Arb. If unis didn't go back there would be less infections. Same argument for every form of action to restrict contact.

Agreed

The student point for Nottingham is 100% valid.

They are out in huge numbers in town, all kicked out at 10pm looking for something  to do.

The 'irresponsible' ones then go and infect the responsible ones and then they all pass it on to everyone as nearly none of them have symptoms.

They were at 20% infected 2 weeks ago so god knows what they are upto now.

Definitely not the same if they are all at home and no way we hit that number 1 spot!

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« Reply #3182 on: October 13, 2020, 07:11:07 PM »

NEW: Two of government's scientific advisers tell the FT thousands of deaths - between 3,000 and as many as 107,000 - could be avoided by January if a circuit breaker lockdown is imposed over half term

Yep could be avoided before Xmas.....
But it will still get them before Spring....
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« Reply #3183 on: October 13, 2020, 07:11:28 PM »

IDGAF if they put the country on level 3 until Xmas, but I don't think most people pay attention to the worst case headlines*

*Other than my mother who then relays them to me daily  

I have told her repeatedly to stop watching GMB, especially when Morgan is on there, to little avail.

I presume the large number is based on a rough flu year and everyone YOLOing like we were same time last year, before the 'rona.

Hardly going to happen, as even the morons are somewhat more aware, even if only doing the minimal amount. Some are very sensible.

You have to add in the tinfoil express, who ust think everything is Bill Gates and Fauci, trying to inject us all with monkey semen to depopulate the earth.
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the sicilian
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« Reply #3184 on: October 13, 2020, 07:18:24 PM »

Irresponsible scare tactics .. media has so much to answer for in all this...so many people don’t read things properly or just don’t bother to check
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« Reply #3185 on: October 13, 2020, 07:24:30 PM »

Amazing how Liverpool (virtually rock solid labour city bar 1 seat) has been locked down in tier 3 with better figures than Nottingham which is mainly blue with only 3 red mp's.   One of them being Jenrick (and Ken Clarke back in the day).   No one seems to have mentioned this either.
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« Reply #3186 on: October 13, 2020, 11:33:00 PM »

Well I thought this 'circuit breaker' thing was just a term the Blondes had come up with between them in this thread.

Turns out they're actually pushing to f**king do it 

For f**ks sake, the 3 months total lock down didn't work so what on earth makes them think two weeks will make any meaningful difference?

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« Reply #3187 on: October 13, 2020, 11:35:22 PM »

3000 to 107k .. way to hedge your bets..

They also said 'could' just in case it somehow manages to fall outside of their range 

If these are really scientific advisors they want sacking. That's just utter horse shit.
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« Reply #3188 on: October 14, 2020, 12:41:18 AM »

Really interesting stats today. Cornwall was heaving over the last few months - loads of tourism, most hospitality businesses full and covid secure, full supermarkets, shops open.

Net result of all that seems to be cases are falling.

Uni's and schools go back and naturally, cases are rising.

All schools and Unis should close and all pubs, businesses and restaurants should be open if having lower cases and fewer over 80s dying is the name of the game.

Just caught up with the thread and the reason there are no issues there is because there are no Uni's.  Pubs/restaurants have never been safer/cleaner to go until most hours of the day (outside of the student type hours).  Would it really have been that hard to close Uni's for the entire year?  most students love a 'lolgap' year anyway.  It's pretty obvious unis have caused the spike.  Nottiingham wasn't even on the radar until 60000+ students landed back in town all drinkings/shagging and, quite rightly, doing all the things students do.   Why couldn't students have been furloughed for a year by giving them a year free fees wise next year?  Most of them could stay at home with their parents rent/bill free for a year anyway.   Just seems too obvious to me.  Schools are a totally different animal to uni's.   Young kids development is way more important than discretionary 'adult' education which could easily be delayed a year.   If the students really wanted to crack on with their degree and miss out on a year of 'student lifestyle' outside of the classroom then they would have been offered online only facility with zero fees for this year and the government funded it.

Why repost this nonsense after it has already been discredited.  Cases increased 10 fold between the beginning of July and the beginning of September?  There hasn't really been any increase in the growth rate since then.  If anything it has slowed, hence Stuart Hopkin asking why we aren't at 50,000.

Isn't it just the lolGovernment casting round for people to blame other than themselves?   Next week they'll be back to immigrants.  And what happens when young adults who have been behaving irresponsibly go back to their home towns, do they become model citizens?   I suspect responsibile students will behave responsibly at home and irresponsible students will carry on much the same as they did in the summer and they did when they were away at Uni.  Sure they won't be in big halls, but instead they'll be mixing with their mates and going back to vulnerable old farts at home.  Swings and roundabouts and I don't think it is nearly as significant as it is made out to be.   I strongly suspect most students are responsible and we only ever see the worst excesses.  Big cities were hot beds of transmission last time and will be this time too regardless of students.



Extremely harsh on Arb. If unis didn't go back there would be less infections. Same argument for every form of action to restrict contact.

Agreed

The student point for Nottingham is 100% valid.

They are out in huge numbers in town, all kicked out at 10pm looking for something  to do.

The 'irresponsible' ones then go and infect the responsible ones and then they all pass it on to everyone as nearly none of them have symptoms.

They were at 20% infected 2 weeks ago so god knows what they are upto now.

Definitely not the same if they are all at home and no way we hit that number 1 spot!



100% caused the spike that started in July and when cases were already up 900% across the country before students went back to Uni?  So it isn't 100% valid.

It probably is valid for Nottingham, but I don't think it is valid for the whole country.  Two weeks ago hadn't they just gone back?  Must be some serious shagging going on in the first couple of days if 20% of them were already infected?  I don't know the exact reason for the difference between Nottingham and Liverpool, but guess it might be age distribution.  If it is mainly students in Nottingham, it may be viewed as less risky than Liverpool where the cases are more spread across the age range.  It does seem a bit bizarre though as cases in Liverpool clearly aren't increasing nearly as much as they are in Nottingham.  I know Sage look a lot further than cases, despite plenty of people suggesting otherwise.

I don't think all students are the same either; some hoorays could afford a gap year, others at the other end of the scale would just drop out.  There aren't going to be a whole heap of new job opportunities for the poorer ones from bad areas who haven't got parents in high places.  I know the likes of Tesco have been recruiting, but most students aren't going to be able to take the new delivery jobs, and I don't reckon the chances are high of many companies giving 18 year olds the chance of starting off working from home, particularly ones who have never worked before.  I don't think you can just close the Unis, but clearly it would have been better to teach remotely.  It is all a bit easier to see now than it was when Arb was telling us not to worry as there were only 10 deaths a day.  Even now, many people aren't really understanding what is likely to happen in the next few months.

Edit.  Just found this.  It seems there are at least two important differences between Liverpool and Nottingham (and the rest of the North West).

https://www.ft.com/content/53272e22-a42b-4f10-8744-004d0328fdfa


Liverpool is struggling to cope with a surge in coronavirus cases, with 95 per cent of intensive care beds in the city’s main hospitals full, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation.

...

The age of affected patients was much higher in Liverpool than elsewhere in the North West, “so we can expect to see growing demand for hospital and [intensive treatment unit] beds”, she warned.

« Last Edit: October 14, 2020, 12:49:41 AM by Doobs » Logged

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« Reply #3189 on: October 14, 2020, 07:14:51 AM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

As Johnny Nash sang, “There are more questions than answers”

If it’s all about the students, how are Oxford and Cambridge managing to stay at around the 100/100,000 level?

Are the soft southern types really so much better at following guidelines than folks oop North?

Is the excess deaths figure still rising? It’s not getting mentioned much lately.





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« Reply #3190 on: October 14, 2020, 07:34:02 AM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

As Johnny Nash sang, “There are more questions than answers”

If it’s all about the students, how are Oxford and Cambridge managing to stay at around the 100/100,000 level?

Are the soft southern types really so much better at following guidelines than folks oop North?

Is the excess deaths figure still rising? It’s not getting mentioned much lately.







So many anomalies.

Cases per 100,000

Nottingham 880
Derby 109
Mansfield 86
Hinckley 104
Leicester 165

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« Reply #3191 on: October 14, 2020, 07:39:20 AM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

As Johnny Nash sang, “There are more questions than answers”

If it’s all about the students, how are Oxford and Cambridge managing to stay at around the 100/100,000 level?

Are the soft southern types really so much better at following guidelines than folks oop North?

Is the excess deaths figure still rising? It’s not getting mentioned much lately.


There are 130 universities in the UK - at the end of September there were 45 with cases of COVID19, and the media have only been reporting on about 4 or 5.
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« Reply #3192 on: October 14, 2020, 08:59:00 AM »

Nottingham University's figures are higher because they're doing a huge amount of asymptomatic testing. Also it's not 880 per 100,000 it was over 1500 out of 35000 students as of last Friday.

https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/coronavirus/covid-19-active-case-statistics.aspx?dm_i=5IL5,3AEZ,10K599,D3U9,1

I have a feeling we're going to see a huge drop in Nottingham Uni's figures in a few weeks and then someone will finally realise that the key to fixing this thing is asymptomatic testing and isolation of people who actually have it. Obviously Nottingham in general will also drop and then hopefully we'll be back to medium risk.

Nottingham Uni figures might look horrific but you can almost guarantee every other Uni is similar, they just don't know about it because they only test people with symptoms. All of those positive cases in Nottingham are now self isolating so it won't be long before it's pretty much eradicated on Campus. Other Unis with much better numbers on paper will still be out in the community spreading the virus unknowingly as well as spreading it amongst themselves.

Also regarding the comparison between Nottingham and Liverpool there's a huge difference in the age of those infected. I don't recall exactly what I heard but it was along the lines of 95% of Nottingham's cases were in the 18 to 22 age range (students....) whereas Liverpool were more spread out in to the older ranges. Still heavily weighted towards the younger end but far more spill over in to the 40+

It's good that they actually take this sort of thing in to account before deciding whether to lock a city down. If you just look at the case per thousand number then Nottingham should clearly be completely locked down but when you delve a bit deeper there's a lot more to it.
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« Reply #3193 on: October 14, 2020, 09:47:11 AM »

Nottingham Council is publishing their figures, albeit with a delay

https://www.nottinghamcity.gov.uk/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-19-surveillance-reports/

If you look at the latest one (as at 4 October) you can see a big discrepancy between the ages of those turning up in clinical settings with symptoms and those found from community testing.  The latest report (4 October) shows that the median age of positives from Pillar 1 cases (clinical need) is 70, but is only 21 from Pillar 2 cases (population testing).  That suggests they are specifically targetting students, as EvilPie states above.  I have seen other studies that show that the positivity rate has been significantly higher in young adults than us oldies over the summer.

I haven't found Liverpool's equivalent yet, but I would be pretty surprised if the number of Pillar 1 positives weren't much higher.

 


 
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« Reply #3194 on: October 14, 2020, 09:56:34 AM »

Bit niche maybe, but on a lighter note.



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