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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 167584 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #3315 on: November 02, 2020, 10:16:24 PM »

Must be getting close to Deano or Glenn citing Jones or Godhead Grin

Alex Jones ? Was just watching him on Rogan earlier. I'm not ready for his brand of tin hat quite yet

He was smashed by the end of that, should be funny to see them trying to get him out of the livestream for the election tomorrow night Cheesy
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« Reply #3316 on: November 03, 2020, 07:27:21 PM »

Good piece this I think - quite long but does a good job of summarising what Matt alluded to earlier in this thread in terms of how terrible the information / communication has been throughout the recent months.

Really hard to see why the Government and scientific community persist in publishing poor or even deliberately misleading information

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« Reply #3317 on: November 04, 2020, 12:08:18 PM »

Good piece this I think - quite long but does a good job of summarising what Matt alluded to earlier in this thread in terms of how terrible the information / communication has been throughout the recent months.

Really hard to see why the Government and scientific community persist in publishing poor or even deliberately misleading information



I am bored already at 6 minutes in.  He was corrected on twitter more or less straightaway on what the "reasonable worst case scenario" was a few days ago, and he is now pretending it is definitely something else on youtube.  And he accuses others of revisionist history.  That is exactly what he has done for the first 6 minutes, so I am not going to listen to 17 minutes of the same.

There was nowhere on the Vallance chart that says that is what is meant by a reasonablw worse case scenario and he said at the time if cases carry on doubling every 7 days this is what will happen.  Nobody was assuming that if extra measures were brought in that there would be no reduction.  As it is, the growth rate is going to slow a little as more cases come in, and testing capacity is always a limiting factor  (ie if you can only do 250,000 tests, you aren't ever going to get over 250,000 positives; and it is going to be a limiting factor long before that as many people are always going to be negative when tested). 

All the above could have been pointed out when the 50k chart was produced, but it is hard to produce a simple message everyone understands.  I don't think it really matters that the 50,000 figure for "official" positives hasn't been hit, as deaths are far more important.  I said a couple of weeks ago that i was hopeful we could get to 200 deaths a day and we could get some kind of levelling off.  That hasn't happened and we got near 400 yesterday, and the figures are still increasing.  I don't know what more the Government can really do, other than do something like lockdown or tier 3 everywhere.   There are still hopeful signs of falling cases in Liverpool and Scotland (which acted quicker).  Maybe 500 a day (or 15k a month) will be the worst of it this time round, but there is a very real chance of more deaths in the 2nd wave than the first wave right now. 

I genuinely think the Government is in a very tough spot, because without lots of deaths, there are too many people causing doubts in people's minds and once they have lots of deaths they have always acted too slowly. We get much the same economic pain if we act quicker or slower, so you'd act quicker and get less deaths in a vacuum, but if they did this when we had 50 daily deaths there would be uproar.

     

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« Reply #3318 on: November 04, 2020, 12:17:36 PM »

I take a lot of your ticket and I understand the Government is trapped in this cycle and it's hard to be all things to all people since there are now 'sides' in the general discourse.

I think his main thrust was about transparency and clarity and in that I think he's right.

From my perspective, the introduction of ideas about 4000 deaths a day, especially if the most affected areas stayed in Tier 3, falls into a fairly pure category of scaremongering and this certainly damages my trust levels.

Countries with massively higher populations and similarly large urban centers have not reached this level of deaths and I can't really find anything that supports that as any kind of sensible number to show and create headlines with.
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« Reply #3319 on: November 04, 2020, 12:36:08 PM »

Didn't even give it 6mins tbh, utter waste of time.
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« Reply #3320 on: November 04, 2020, 12:52:41 PM »

I take a lot of your ticket and I understand the Government is trapped in this cycle and it's hard to be all things to all people since there are now 'sides' in the general discourse.

I think his main thrust was about transparency and clarity and in that I think he's right.

From my perspective, the introduction of ideas about 4000 deaths a day, especially if the most affected areas stayed in Tier 3, falls into a fairly pure category of scaremongering and this certainly damages my trust levels.

Countries with massively higher populations and similarly large urban centers have not reached this level of deaths and I can't really find anything that supports that as any kind of sensible number to show and create headlines with.


I did get to the end of the video, after my post.  He obviously moved on to the "real" reasonable worst case scenario straight after I originally stopped watching.

I don't think he is really correct on transparency.  We aren't at the levels of Singapore for data releases, but we are well ahead of a lot of similarly sixed nations.  I work with data a lot and it is very hard to get perfect data quickly (or slowly) for a life office that has been doing this for years.  I'd actually put the data releases as better than I'd expect.  But there are always going to be issues.  Hospitals are far more geared to producing data quickly than care homes, so it isn't really a surprise that some data on care homes in a specific area wasn't available so easily. I just think this is a clash between what is realistic and what is ideal.

I think the 4,000 case scenario was just a cock up, I think the update was released 3 days before the presentation, and it is just way more likely that someone just missed the update when preparing the presentation.  I don't think it really undermines much as without this action, 1,500 or 2,000 deaths are day were still at least possibles.  

I should add that Covid isn't really acting like normal seasonal winter deaths, which is likely the reason that the resonable worst case scenario was overshot.  Cases were increasing rapidly in August long before the weather had really turned and before we really started heading inside for winter.  So it is a bit hindsight talking when you start saying it was obvious we'd get a ramp up when students returned etc.  Winter deaths normally increase gently from the summer into the autumn and really ramp up from November when the weather gets much colder.  You could argue this could all have been expected though, as there isn't nomally a bloody great hump in March either and Covid didn't really behave like winter flu in Wuhan either, but there was definitely some logic to what the reasonable worst case scenario looked like.  I suspect the reality is that the reasonable worst case scenario wasn't their real worst case scenario, it was just something bad that could happen, and there will be lots of worse case scenarios worse than that one.  In our work we tend to focus on 1 in 200 year events, but we run 10k or 50k scenarios, so there are loads of scenarios a lot wose than 1/200; here the term "reasonable worse case scenario" sounds a lot more common that 1 in 200 to me.  I'd much prefer to call it something like a 1 in 10 scenario rather than "reasonable worst case".

        

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« Reply #3321 on: November 04, 2020, 04:20:23 PM »

How does the actual data compare to No10’s four scenarios shown at the Saturday press conference?

The Specator is updating daily
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« Reply #3322 on: November 04, 2020, 05:09:09 PM »

How does the actual data compare to No10’s four scenarios shown at the Saturday press conference?

The Specator is updating daily

 It doesn't look up to date on a rough eyeball.  There are 492 today and there were just shy of 400 yesterday.  Haven't they just run it to the weekend, when there are delays, and not updated when they realised what happens midweek?

My optimism a few hours ago that maybe 500 could be the worst seems to have been misplaced.  Will take a couple of weeks before the lockdown feeds through.
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« Reply #3323 on: November 04, 2020, 11:05:15 PM »

So these are the official NHS figures for covid deaths in hospitals... other than care homes where else are they taken from ?  we seem way short of the 3-400 daily they report

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« Reply #3324 on: November 05, 2020, 09:27:57 AM »

How does the actual data compare to No10’s four scenarios shown at the Saturday press conference?

The Specator is updating daily

 It doesn't look up to date on a rough eyeball.  There are 492 today and there were just shy of 400 yesterday.  Haven't they just run it to the weekend, when there are delays, and not updated when they realised what happens midweek?

My optimism a few hours ago that maybe 500 could be the worst seems to have been misplaced.  Will take a couple of weeks before the lockdown feeds through.

I'll answer this myself.  You can find the graphs here, and interestingly you can click on get the data and go through to the actual spreadsheet used to create the graphs. 

https://data.spectator.co.uk

The chart ends on Saturday 31 October, but you can just put in the data from that date into your newly created excel sheet to create a 4 Novembet version.  In that version, you can see we are pretty much going along as expected in the projections.  This is all pretty good.  Presumably we can see the effect of the partial lockdown in the future by monitoring this?

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« Reply #3325 on: November 05, 2020, 09:40:24 AM »

So these are the official NHS figures for covid deaths in hospitals... other than care homes where else are they taken from ?  we seem way short of the 3-400 daily they report

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They report the deaths that are reported on that date.  There is a delay in reporting most of the deaths.  So some reported on 4 November will have actually happened on 3 November, some 2 November, some 1 November etc.    This is likely simply the admin involved in producing a report at each level.

The delays are usually worse at the weekend, presumably because a lot of admin types don't work at the weekend.  So you can assume weekend reports are always understated and midweek reports are always a bit overstated (because they catch up from the weekend understatements). 

The result is that you often see charts from sceptics ending on a weekend and turning down at the end.  Followed by "why are we sacrificing our freedoms when cases are falling?" type tweets/headlines.
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« Reply #3326 on: November 05, 2020, 01:29:25 PM »

the decision to extend the full 80% Furlough to end March 2021 is a pretty clear inclination of the timeline the govt expects us to be in restrictions of some sort or other/earliest possible vaccine timeline?
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« Reply #3327 on: November 05, 2020, 02:06:43 PM »

So these are the official NHS figures for covid deaths in hospitals... other than care homes where else are they taken from ?  we seem way short of the 3-400 daily they report

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They report the deaths that are reported on that date.  There is a delay in reporting most of the deaths.  So some reported on 4 November will have actually happened on 3 November, some 2 November, some 1 November etc.    This is likely simply the admin involved in producing a report at each level.

The delays are usually worse at the weekend, presumably because a lot of admin types don't work at the weekend.  So you can assume weekend reports are always understated and midweek reports are always a bit overstated (because they catch up from the weekend understatements). 

The result is that you often see charts from sceptics ending on a weekend and turning down at the end.  Followed by "why are we sacrificing our freedoms when cases are falling?" type tweets/headlines.


So the numbers will eventually even out after a period of time and show a true representation ?
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« Reply #3328 on: November 05, 2020, 02:58:23 PM »

So these are the official NHS figures for covid deaths in hospitals... other than care homes where else are they taken from ?  we seem way short of the 3-400 daily they report

31-Oct-20   01-Nov-20   02-Nov-20   03-Nov-20
182             179              157   34


They report the deaths that are reported on that date.  There is a delay in reporting most of the deaths.  So some reported on 4 November will have actually happened on 3 November, some 2 November, some 1 November etc.    This is likely simply the admin involved in producing a report at each level.

The delays are usually worse at the weekend, presumably because a lot of admin types don't work at the weekend.  So you can assume weekend reports are always understated and midweek reports are always a bit overstated (because they catch up from the weekend understatements). 

The result is that you often see charts from sceptics ending on a weekend and turning down at the end.  Followed by "why are we sacrificing our freedoms when cases are falling?" type tweets/headlines.


So the numbers will eventually even out after a period of time and show a true representation ?

Yes, if you wait 5 days/a week you should see near accurate numbers for each date.  There will still be stragglers coming in late.    So if you look back to a week ago you should see the real number for that date and see the real trend.

I just knock off a bit in my head for midweek numbers and add a bit more for the weekend.  So right now, the weekend numbers should probably have been about 300 (rather than 150), and yesterday's nearer 400 than 500.   You can put a curve through the numbers using maths up until a week ago, and project it forward to today and likely get a more accurate number than that reported.   

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« Reply #3329 on: November 05, 2020, 05:53:23 PM »

At the press conference Beth Rigby asked a kind of gotcha (except it shouldn't be any kind of gotcha at all) question around Tory MPs not supporting the lockdown and would they support an extension if needed.

Boris' fumbling answer, based on our extremely partisan politics and the refusal by most politicians to respond like human beings, was a shambolic sight.

Why couldn't he just say that there is some disagreement in the population and in parliament about lockdown style measures and that he was happy for people to vote based on their personal views, delighted that parliament was treating this in a non partisan way, and that 500 + MPS voted this lockdown through which is a decent reflection of the population at large.

Instead he has to take the fact that some Tory MPs voted against as some kind of personal slight and challenge. MPs are just ridiculous.
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