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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 166504 times)
Ironside
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« Reply #3330 on: November 05, 2020, 06:10:52 PM »

the decision to extend the full 80% Furlough to end March 2021 is a pretty clear inclination of the timeline the govt expects us to be in restrictions of some sort or other/earliest possible vaccine timeline?

even if a vaccine is given the green light getting it made in numbers required and administrated i think March is optimistic. I think that as we move into spring though numbers will be massively reduced again and hopefully we can all get vaccine before the end of next summer
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« Reply #3331 on: November 06, 2020, 03:15:34 PM »

How does the actual data compare to No10’s four scenarios shown at the Saturday press conference?

The Specator is updating daily

 It doesn't look up to date on a rough eyeball.  There are 492 today and there were just shy of 400 yesterday.  Haven't they just run it to the weekend, when there are delays, and not updated when they realised what happens midweek?

My optimism a few hours ago that maybe 500 could be the worst seems to have been misplaced.  Will take a couple of weeks before the lockdown feeds through.

I'll answer this myself.  You can find the graphs here, and interestingly you can click on get the data and go through to the actual spreadsheet used to create the graphs. 

https://data.spectator.co.uk

The chart ends on Saturday 31 October, but you can just put in the data from that date into your newly created excel sheet to create a 4 Novembet version.  In that version, you can see we are pretty much going along as expected in the projections.  This is all pretty good.  Presumably we can see the effect of the partial lockdown in the future by monitoring this?



I have been playing about with this on my PC.

I am pretty sure the spectator were using actual deaths at date of death rather than reported deaths, hence when you look at Tighty's picture the downswing at the end isn't a weekend downswing but just shows the slow reporting of previous days deaths.

Looking at 7 days ago (which should allow sufficient time for most actual deaths to be included in the data), the deaths on 29/10/2020 in England were 232.  This is likely to be an increase of 30% or so on a week previously (it is 27.5% right now, but I assume a handful of cases will be added late even now).

Looking at the comparisons, that is higher than the Warwick mid projection (210) and higher than the LSHTM low projection (150), but lower than their mid projection (270).  It is lower than all 3 Imperial projections (lowest is 280).  It is also lower than the "Cambridge/PHE" projection that was out of date and has been discredited.   

Of those projections mentioned above that were close to the deaths figure of a week ago, Warwick mid has 350 cases a day by today (Wawick low has 290, LSHTM low has 250 and LSHTM has 430).  I don't think any are massively out right now (I assume we have about 300-400 deaths a day right now once the reporting lag has worked through). 

Going forward, Warwick mid has 1,000 cases a day by 28 November; LSHTM low has 1,000 cases by 5 December, Warwick mid by 19 November and LSTHM mid by 21 November.  So the 4 more reasonable projections all have 1,000 cases a day by around the end of November.  So even if we can ignore the more hysterical/out of date Cambridge PHE projection, without measures we appeared to be heading towards peak wave 1 Covid death figues around the end of this month.

Is this now going to happpen?  I don't know.  There seems to be some evidence that growth rates were slowing already (maybe because of the tier 3 areas, maybe because people were becoming more careful and maybe because of increased immunity).  Add in the lockdown from yesterday and I think it is OK to be hopeful we don't now hit 1,000 cases a day by the end of November, and we peak at a lower number. I wouldn't be in any rush to discount a third wave though.
   
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« Reply #3332 on: November 06, 2020, 04:06:45 PM »

Interesting stuff.

Seems unlikely we'll ever eradicate in this country so short of immunity achieved by design or accident, third, fourth, fifth waves are inevitable with the approach we're taking I would guess ?
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« Reply #3333 on: November 06, 2020, 04:23:08 PM »

Disappears worldwide, as soon as they finish counting the votes.
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« Reply #3334 on: November 06, 2020, 06:55:14 PM »

Interesting stuff.

Seems unlikely we'll ever eradicate in this country so short of immunity achieved by design or accident, third, fourth, fifth waves are inevitable with the approach we're taking I would guess ?


Yeah, I think a third wave is close to a certainty, it is just the size that is uncertain.  I assume the vaccine will take time even if they find one soon, and there are going to be more avoiding the vaccine than normal.

I wouldn't like to guess when the third wave will be, as that depends on how well we get this one down and how well people control themselves after.
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Ironside
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« Reply #3335 on: November 07, 2020, 03:12:13 PM »

Once they get the numbers getting infected/dying down the levels of flu they wont be locking us down each wave
just as long as there isnt people sitting in ambulances in car parks while they try to find them bed
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« Reply #3336 on: November 09, 2020, 11:59:04 AM »

A coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech is ‘90% effective’ in preventing Covid-19, the companies have announced.

The UK has advance orders for 30m doses of the vaccine, enough to immunise 15 m people.

encouraging on the face of it
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« Reply #3337 on: November 09, 2020, 05:17:38 PM »

Boris Johnson - It puts more arrows into our epidemiological quiver.

 
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« Reply #3338 on: November 09, 2020, 05:50:46 PM »

A coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech is ‘90% effective’ in preventing Covid-19, the companies have announced.

The UK has advance orders for 30m doses of the vaccine, enough to immunise 15 m people.

encouraging on the face of it

Any idea why this isn't enough to immunise 30m people?

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« Reply #3339 on: November 09, 2020, 05:51:20 PM »

A coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech is ‘90% effective’ in preventing Covid-19, the companies have announced.

The UK has advance orders for 30m doses of the vaccine, enough to immunise 15 m people.

encouraging on the face of it

Any idea why this isn't enough to immunise 30m people?


Think it's 2 shots?
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« Reply #3340 on: November 09, 2020, 06:21:24 PM »

A coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech is ‘90% effective’ in preventing Covid-19, the companies have announced.

The UK has advance orders for 30m doses of the vaccine, enough to immunise 15 m people.

encouraging on the face of it

Any idea why this isn't enough to immunise 30m people?



It's two shots a few weeks apart
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« Reply #3341 on: November 09, 2020, 06:23:29 PM »

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/four-reasons-for-encouragement-based-on-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-results/?utm_content=buffer90df2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic


Seems there will be more in the pipeline as other companies have been pursuing the same approach a Pfizer.

The FDA were willing to issue an emergency use exception for a vaccine that was 50% effective, Pfizer claim a 90% success rate. Other companies following close behind.
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nirvana
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« Reply #3342 on: November 09, 2020, 07:37:45 PM »

Bugles, toots, cavalry.

Rain, train platforms, lights a couple of miles away, coming round the bend

Expect this drivel from Boris, wtf is Johnnie Tam on about
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« Reply #3343 on: November 09, 2020, 11:54:50 PM »

Facebook overflowing with people saying they'll never take the vaccine. Depressing.
Actually, it's more than that - it's irresponsible.
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« Reply #3344 on: November 09, 2020, 11:58:02 PM »

One thing this has been handy for, is working out which mates are whack jobs.
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