COVID19

[Marky147]

FFS... He must be loving this, able to set himself up for life on the back of it.

Was he always a smarmy twat, even when he was a nobody?

[Marky147]

John Campbell going through a load of the vaccine efficacy figures, and some data from the first peer reviewed study, too.

Got some work I need to do now, but that's dinnertime TV sorted

[Doobs]

FFS... He must be loving this, able to set himself up for life on the back of it.

Was he always a smarmy twat, even when he was a nobody?

It seems so; obviously modesty is a stranger to him.  Man gets sick, gets better or alternatively:  https://www.dietdoctor.com/preview-the-engineer-who-knows-more-than-your-doctor. By coincidence, he did a bit of promoting of the keto diet on the side before he began knowing more about mortality than the likes of doctors and actuaries. 

I just watched one of John's videos.  It was pretty interesting; he pointed out that up until April mask wearing is ecpected to save way more lives than the vaccine.  It makes sense when you think about it, but it hadn't dawned on me previously.  I suspect the real order right now is social distancing, mask wearing, vaccine for this winter; hopefully reversed by next winter.

[Marky147]

Because it will take a good length of time to roll it all out and have any level of efficacy?

Be sensible and put up with a (first world) shit 2020, semi shit 2021, and bit of luck it will be what mugemperor is trying to tell everyone it is by 2022.

[Doobs]

Because it will take a good length of time to roll it all out and have any level of efficacy?

Be sensible and put up with a (first world) shit 2020, semi shit 2021, and bit of luck it will be what mugemperor is trying to tell everyone it is by 2022.

I think it is because of the slow rollout of the vaccine, the time between doses and the time it needs to make a difference.  So if you have the first dose today and you don't have the second for nearly a month, then you aren't 90 odd percent protected until then.  Add in the time it takes between infection and death and it could be nearly a couple of months until there is any change in the number of deaths.  Given only a small proportion of the vulnerable are going to be vaccinated this month you can see why it would take time to make a difference.

I think he was talking about the US at the time and the comparison was something lile 9,000 lives saved by vaccine by 1 April compared to 60,000 lives saved if 95% of people wear masks.  It may even have been only 3,000 from the vaccine, but think he may of quoted both numbers and I can't remember what the reasoning was for each.

I don't think the actual numbers matter, but the message really needs to be carry on masking up and social distancing this winter. 

[Marky147]

Think he was talking about the time between the doses and overall time to build up immunity being way over the doses.

Basic message is don't be mugs, you mugs.

Given that's the case, we're prob in trouble.

[Marky147]

Broke 3k today in the US, along with hospitalisations almost doubling in just over a month to >100k

Bad signs for Xmas & January, unfortunately

[Doobs]

Sounds pretty grim from the US; it is mad that Trump is barely mentioning it. 

Thought this was interesting. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-12-09/five-minutes-from-20-feet-away-south-korean-study-shows-perils-of-indoor-dining-for-covid-19.   

I have seen a few of these tracing stories from Asia, though this one is extreme, and likely someone who was very contagious.  Over here, our track and trace system is so poor that they often don't get round to the restaurants.  Of course sitting round with your extended family for a couple of days is going to be way worse than eating in at McDonald's.

Just me and Marky today?

[nirvana]

Present. The US transition timescales, magnified by an outgoing nutjob, really look kinda silly at a time of crisis

[4KSuited]

Having a browse too.

And if Covid wasn’t enough for Donald, he’s approved 5 executions before the end of his term, going radically against convention.

[Supernova]

Our local hospital, where I'm on the waiting list.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55248658

[Marky147]

More Dr John.



Donald is too busy worrying about his lawsuits, to worry about 3000 a day dying.

[Karabiner]

Having a browse too.

And if Covid wasn’t enough for Donald, he’s approved 5 executions before the end of his term, going radically against convention.

How many of them were white?

[Doobs]

Having a browse too.

And if Covid wasn’t enough for Donald, he’s approved 5 executions before the end of his term, going radically against convention.

How many of them were white?

One, but she's a woman, so fair game for Trump?  :/

I am fairly sure Trump was asking why do the Democrats want to save criminals on his Twitter.  Killing people for political reasons seems pretty low even for Trump, but think he has form going back from before he was president with the central park 5.

[Doobs]

This is from David Spiegelhalter, who is usually good at explaining things.  Here he explains why the elderly get the vaccine first amongst other considerations.

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/why-i-am-in-a-higher-priority-group-for-a-vaccine-than-younger-people-with-chronic-health-974621eec30

I think I mentioned the difference between prioritising deaths or life expectancy saved the other day.  There is a diagram in there that shows that even when you measure things that way it is clear you should target the elderely first. 

I didn't realise that someone had done a Covid Age calculator, but discovered it through that article.  It doesn't cover every disease, but may be useful for those with the more common diseases.  Here it is anyway. 


https://alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/