COVID19

[Doobs]

Dr John with dinner

He did another one later about the USA too.  He did make me a bit more comfortable about not seeing my mum.  I have a couple of brothers who are nearer who can pop by and say hello too.  Nobody is having dinner with her and she is happy with that and says she'd prefer to wait til easter anyway (she is pretty high up the list).   When we originally switched to just a day trip I was thinking Christmas day traffic is usually light, 300+ miles on the only day most are travelling is going to be pretty shitty too!

Saw this and it made me smile.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1341012403702657024

On the new variant-yes all the evidence is circumstantial. But this is now the murder mystery equivalent of walking into the room finding someone standing over the dead body, holding a knife, with signs of break in in the house. They might just be passing through.

Yeah I get it might be a bit overdramatic, but gets it over better than the PHE document released yesterday that goes through the evidence.

[nirvana]

Serious question, there could be loads of good reasons why it doesnt make sense to see your mum and i guess this is a more general point than your personal circs. However, i dont get people who dont do this when their circs allow them to do this sensibly. Both parties isolate for around 7 days and then meet in the knowledge that the virus isnt mysterious and wont suddenly appear due to the fact of a meeting

[Doobs]

For those interested, PHE published this evidence yesterday.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201

[Doobs]

Serious question, there could be loads of good reasons why it doesnt make sense to see your mum and i guess this is a more general point than your personal circs. However, i dont get people who dont do this when their circs allow them to do this sensibly. Both parties isolate for around 7 days and then meet in the knowledge that the virus isnt mysterious and wont suddenly appear due to the fact of a meeting

I just think it is hard to isolate fully as a family.  One kid finished school on Friday, they both had stuff on Saturday. I had to go out yesterday for stuff; and I need more food before Christmas day and so on.   If you are on your own, or better organised, it is probably easier.  I am conscious that it is more likely that my kids will be asymptomatic than me, and I see the kids streaming out of secondary school and it would be naive to think my kids were any better at social distancing during the day. 

I just think we can wait 3 months for her to get the vaccine and just Skype on Christmas day.  It may be a better meeting than an uneasy social distanced one after a 6 hour drive.  I have a brother in New Zealand and she "sees" him and his family way more than the one who lives 2 miles down the road.  Come Easter it will likely be easier to sit outside when we meet.

I don't think it is an easy decision though, and have only very recently changed my mind.  I am not going to get arsey with people making different choices with less vulnerable parents. 

[Marky147]

He did another one later about the USA too.  He did make me a bit more comfortable about not seeing my mum.  I have a couple of brothers who are nearer who can pop by and say hello too.  Nobody is having dinner with her and she is happy with that and says she'd prefer to wait til easter anyway (she is pretty high up the list).   When we originally switched to just a day trip I was thinking Christmas day traffic is usually light, 300+ miles on the only day most are travelling is going to be pretty shitty too!

Saw this and it made me smile.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1341012403702657024

On the new variant-yes all the evidence is circumstantial. But this is now the murder mystery equivalent of walking into the room finding someone standing over the dead body, holding a knife, with signs of break in in the house. They might just be passing through.


Yeah I get it might be a bit overdramatic, but gets it over better than the PHE document released yesterday that goes through the evidence.

Haha, very good!

I saw the US one last night, too. I've got friends in different areas of California, and I think they're about the only place who's having a worse time of it than us.

For the anti-social brigade like me, this is no big deal. I wouldn't have minded a few meals out over the NY, but can leave that until Easter, as you say.

[nirvana]

Serious question, there could be loads of good reasons why it doesnt make sense to see your mum and i guess this is a more general point than your personal circs. However, i dont get people who dont do this when their circs allow them to do this sensibly. Both parties isolate for around 7 days and then meet in the knowledge that the virus isnt mysterious and wont suddenly appear due to the fact of a meeting

I just think it is hard to isolate fully as a family.  One kid finished school on Friday, they both had stuff on Saturday. I had to go out yesterday for stuff; and I need more food before Christmas day and so on.   If you are on your own, or better organised, it is probably easier.  I am conscious that it is more likely that my kids will be asymptomatic than me, and I see the kids streaming out of secondary school and it would be naive to think my kids were any better at social distancing during the day. 

I just think we can wait 3 months for her to get the vaccine and just Skype on Christmas day.  It may be a better meeting than an uneasy social distanced one after a 6 hour drive.  I have a brother in New Zealand and she "sees" him and his family way more than the one who lives 2 miles down the road.  Come Easter it will likely be easier to sit outside when we meet.

I don't think it is an easy decision though, and have only very recently changed my mind.  I am not going to get arsey with people making different choices with less vulnerable parents. 

I understand how difficult it is to get this right even when you mean to be very careful. As you say, any family of 4 or 5 people is going to have so many contacts in a relatively short period even when trying to be very cautious

[Doobs]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/plans-for-30-minute-covid-lateral-flow-tests-in-england-halted-over-accuracy-fears

There has been a lot of chatter about the accuracy of the lateral flow tests.  Whilst the talk of inaccuracies in PCR tests is usually exaggerated nonsense, the lateral flow test concerns seem to have a much more solid bases.

Note in this story, the Spokesperson only talks about the accuracy for positives, the real problem with the lateral flow test is the high level of false negatives.  In the University of Birmingham Study they found two lateral flow test positives, when the sampling with PCR tests suggested the test could have been 60 real positives

FWIW there is a lot of uncertainty around the 60 number because the sample size was small, but that doesn't change the conclusion that a lot of positive results can be missed by lateral flow tests in asymptomatic cases.  This might not be much of a concern unless your intended target is asymptomatic individuals, unfortunately that was very much the target here. 

[Marky147]

Mate who's on the Icke express sent a 2m video ranting about how Kary Mullis told everyone the PCR tests are no good for viruses, and he is also dead now.

Not sure if he realises that one has nothing to do with the other, unless they killed him a year before the inception of their cunning plan, so he was unable to speak on it.

[TightEnd]

Just don’t understand what the Government thinks it’s doing. (well i do, its populist and its xmas)

Two dangerous new strains identified in less than a week.

One already spreading rapidly around the country.

The other, South African, even more transmissible, means anyone who has been to or in contact with anyone who has been to SA has to quarantine, properly quarantine. no mixing with anyone even in the same household

Yet Ministers are waiting days to introduce lockdown measures, even though they publicly state speed is vital.

it should be today, and it should be full lockdown now, xmas or not?

and get the Oxford vaccine approved and ramp up the numbers protected asap

[the sicilian]

Just don’t understand what the Government thinks it’s doing. (well i do, its populist and its xmas)

Two dangerous new strains identified in less than a week.

One already spreading rapidly around the country.

The other, South African, even more transmissible, means anyone who has been to or in contact with anyone who has been to SA has to quarantine, properly quarantine. no mixing with anyone even in the same household

Yet Ministers are waiting days to introduce lockdown measures, even though they publicly state speed is vital.

it should be today, and it should be full lockdown now, xmas or not?

and get the Oxford vaccine approved and ramp up the numbers protected asap

Report says we havent analysed the new strain from south africa yet as it is being sent to Porton Down so it can be ..so going on assumptions there..report also states the vaccine will be fine against it as it is able to combat a wide range..not sure how you can say that for sure against a new strain..just more examples of the media mis information and making it up as they go along for maximum clicks...but you are right the waiting until boxing day is utter comedy..comedy from clowns who we trust and obey almost without question

[Marky147]

They should have just said fuck all until it was analysed, imo.

Deano 1.25 to be picked up on the news during the next 'Freedom March' in London

[Marky147]

Literally just gone up, so guessing there will be some thoughts on this in it.

[Doobs]

Louis, who is a South African actuary, has written a new bulletin for the Covid 19 Actuaries response group.   It is bulletin 91 and is here

https://www.covid-arg.com/bulletins

I haven't worked out how to link directly.

Cliffs.  The new UK strain and the South African strain share a mutation, but there is a suggestion the South African strain could be more dangerous again because of two other mutations.  

There is weak evidence that the South African strain could be more serious for younger people.  But that isn't certain yet, and South Africa has a younger age profile than here, so that might just be demographics (this is my thoughts).

The suggestion that the vaccine should still be effrctive is not media misinformation or people making it up as they go along but based on analysis of the new UK strain.   As these things are happening quickly and research has to happen quickly there is bound to be some uncertainty.  They clearly can't be absolutely sure that the vaccines will be as effective, and I am not convinced anybody has really claimed that.  But that isn't the same as making things up as they go along, though there are plenty of others willing to do that.

[Doobs]

They should have just said fuck all until it was analysed, imo.

Deano 1.25 to be picked up on the news during the next 'Freedom March' in London

I don't think they can wait until absolutely certain Marky.  If they are reasonably sure of something they need to act quickly, even if there is still a chance they may be wrong.  A couple of weeks or a month can make huge differences to the fatality rate.

And FWIW It has been analysed, just not as well as would be ideal if they had the luxury of long time scales.

Tier 4 for me from boxing day, guess visiting my ma would have been a bit reckless.

[Marky147]

Yeah, I don't disagree, and was thinking more along the lines of waiting 2 days

Was guessing they'd have it analysed by the weekend and can then just announce on Saturday 'You're all to stay in your hutch until January'.

I refuse to watch the news, so get all my stuff from Stu Mcdonald and those guys, along with John Campbell.

Oh, and worldometers, obv.