COVID19

[Marky147]

Not much winds me up nowadays, but smiley faces and mug emperor both have my number

[Marky147]

UK updates start at ~14m 52.

Not good, but hopefully on the right road.

[RickBFA]

I meant to add I did look for vaccination data, but I don't think daily numbers are published yet.  I assume they have these internally, as there have been more up to date numbers announced away from the Government update site. 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I think daily and other vaccinations numbers are published on here.

[Doobs]

I meant to add I did look for vaccination data, but I don't think daily numbers are published yet.  I assume they have these internally, as there have been more up to date numbers announced away from the Government update site. 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I think daily and other vaccinations numbers are published on here.

Thanks Rick

That is where I normally look, but it looks like it was added a couple of days ago.   It looks like they are well on the way to doing 2 million a week which is good news again.   This is assuming they aren't doing something weird like counting capacity rather than actual jabs.

[Doobs]

I meant to add I did look for vaccination data, but I don't think daily numbers are published yet.  I assume they have these internally, as there have been more up to date numbers announced away from the Government update site. 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I think daily and other vaccinations numbers are published on here.

Thanks Rick

That is where I normally look, but it looks like it was added a couple of days ago.   It looks like they are well on the way to doing 2 million a week which is good news again.   This is assuming they aren't doing something weird like counting capacity rather than actual jabs.

Looks like someone is on to it already, saves me working out where we are.

https://mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1349395090893058051

Seems like they might be doing something weird, as John Actuary is comcerned about people "offered a vaccine".  Will look at it later, as I want to do a proper round up. 

[Marky147]

Some positive news, for a change.

Though Stuart McDonald posted some as well, though deaths likely won't slow down for a bit.

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1349781295094771719

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1349777573321048070

[Doobs]

I didn't do an update last week, but the cases never did go below 300 a day on any day in England and we have had a couple of days above 400 in December.  When the lag works through, we are likely to see several days above 400 cases from the last week or so, plus a higher number than the earlier wave 2 peak in mid November.  As I mentioned last time, I wasn't expecting the cases to drop much, and though there have been days where the number dropped near to 300 deaths a day wave 2 never really ended, so wave 3 never really started.  Wales has had it worse and have already past their previous wave 2 peak even before the lag has worked through.

Hospital admissions have gone past their previous wave 2 peak and heading inexorably towards wave 1 levels.  See https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1341483186124169217.  I know people always hear that this is an old people's disease, but there is a real split of ages amongst the hospital admissions with a good chunk in thier 50s and below.

On the cases by specimen date, I was talking a couple of weeks ago about how we were struggling to get below 15k cases a day in ther UK; that has long gone, and nearly every day in the last week has seen over 30k cases a day. 

I am not going to cover the new variant again, but think things would be looking bad even without it.

Make the most of your little freedoms you have now.  But the darkest hour is before the dawn and all that, so hopefully things will start looking up really soon with the vaccine rollout.

Merry christmas all.  Hope HMRC are sending you money and not the comedy bill they just sent me.   

Hmm, looking back on this..

Yesterday it was announced there were 1,000+ cases a day, which is clearly just a big catch up dump that is because they always use date reported rather than date of death on the news.

The reality is that in England we went through 500 English deaths a day on Christmas Day, and whilst there is still lag in the data, we are very likely to be through 600 in England already, and 700 UK wide.

This thread originally followed the Spectator projection charts, which were based on England and based on some projections used to justify the November lockdown.   What is clear now is that we went under the projections after that lockdown, but we are about to go through the charts for the lowest projections they used.   This is because nearly every projection had a peak in December and started going down.  Deaths are still hitting new wave 2 highs, and rising at about 20% a week, and will be for a couple of weeks until deaths catches up with the recent surge in cases.   

On cases, it is too early to make concrete conclusions on if the latest lockdown has been enough.  I don't want to confirm anything regarding Christmas meet-ups yet, but we were clearly already in a mess before that.  I suspect it will be a minor blip rather than anything massive.  I think most people just didn't meet-up or kept gatherings to a minimium. 

Away from deaths, hospital admissions are stll increasing significantly (see the post from yesterday).  They are clearly going to carry on rising for a couple of weeks, so I don't think the talk of triage is hyperbole.  I think there is bound to be some knock on effect of the limited resources on deaths.

There is some good news elsewhere, with more succesful treatments just announced.  I haven't been monitoring vaccination stats, but might throw something together.  Surely medical services getting overun is not going to be good if some of the same people will be needed for vaccinations.  I wouldn't like to be allocating resources right now. 

Again, this is mostly bad news, and the deaths data is bound to be dreadful for at least another couple of weeks. Hopefully, the lockdown should be making a noticeable difference on other stats towards the end of that period.  It is going to take longer for the vaccinations to make a significant difference simply because it still takes a few weeks to build immunity after vaccination.  I still think things are going to look way better in the sping. 

Deaths were still rising by about 20% a week at this time last week (or more than doubling over a month).  This is likely to go on for another week or so, and then I expect to see some slowing as the effect of the lockdown will start to take effect.  There won't be any significant effect from the vaccines yet, as few people were vaccinated before christmas.  It is noticeable quite how many late registrations from the Christmas period were still coming came through over the last week. 

On hospital admissions, Stuart McDonald has covered this https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1349777573321048070.  They haven't definitely peaked yet, but daily increases are, at worst, much smaller than they have been recently.

Cases appear to be on a downtrend.  I am pretty sure of this now, though you have to still add the caveat that reporting delays make any definite conclusions difficult.

I saw a Doctor talking about 2,000 deaths a day earlier today.  I don't see how that happens unless there is a major shift in the virus, or there is some major tipping point where intensive care units are too full to take anymore patients.  Cases appear to be falling and hospital admissions are increasing much more slowly, so I expect them to peak in a couple of weeks at just over 1,000 a week.  After that they should start falling slowly until the effects of the vaccination program kicks in. 

Moving on

Here is the updated PHE end year report updated for lagging data.  Clearly excess deaths are still running at very high levels.


https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1349754840822542336



FWIW It is likely to still get updates

Beware of earlier versions that do not show what the tweeters think they do.

https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1347208965281755136



Finally, be massively wary of any year end data you see from Sweden.  If you have realised that the UK has issues with our data lagging, we have nothing on Sweden where data seems to come in big lumps and appears to suffer from really significant delays.  Also be wary of overall mortality comparisons with nearby countries, as age is a huge factor in mortality, and Sweden has had a significant amount of recent immigration of young refugees.   

[Marky147]

So Ivor can pick the best Swedish charts out for his videos?

[Doobs]

So Ivor can pick the best Swedish charts out for his videos?

Pretty much; there is a lot of scope for making bad conclusions from their data.

There is nothing great about them when the data catches up.  They are pretty much on a par with the UK, and that isn't a good thing.   

[Marky147]

So Ivor can pick the best Swedish charts out for his videos?

Pretty much; there is a lot of scope for making bad conclusions from their data.

There is nothing great about them when the data catches up.  They are pretty much on a par with the UK, and that isn't a good thing.   

I've hardly watched Rogan since he moved to Spotify, but whereas he used to upload clips to a clips channel, he now uploads them to his old channel and I get notified.

He had some chap called Alex Berenson on a few weeks ago, and Rogan was absolutely fawning over him.

I was bored so replied to a question regarding vaccines being administered, and got baited...

https://twitter.com/Coronavirusgoo1/status/1349851542220902401

https://twitter.com/False_Pos1t1ve/status/1349852664532791296

Get tagged in a reply with a post from him on Twitter - This post by Berenson https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1349798503464230915

No shock to see who else has picked it up https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1349826314153431042

That's me and Twitter done for a few days, beyond ARG & Stuard McD

[Doobs]

So Ivor can pick the best Swedish charts out for his videos?

Pretty much; there is a lot of scope for making bad conclusions from their data.

There is nothing great about them when the data catches up.  They are pretty much on a par with the UK, and that isn't a good thing.   

I've hardly watched Rogan since he moved to Spotify, but whereas he used to upload clips to a clips channel, he now uploads them to his old channel and I get notified.

He had some chap called Alex Berenson on a few weeks ago, and Rogan was absolutely fawning over him.

I was bored so replied to a question regarding vaccines being administered, and got baited...

https://twitter.com/Coronavirusgoo1/status/1349851542220902401

https://twitter.com/False_Pos1t1ve/status/1349852664532791296

Get tagged in a reply with a post from him on Twitter - This post by Berenson https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1349798503464230915

No shock to see who else has picked it up https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1349826314153431042

That's me and Twitter done for a few days, beyond ARG & Stuard McD

The trials of these vaccines are effectively ongoing, so it shouldn't be a surprise that people are still reporting adverse findings; they should be. 

I can't comment too much on the report as it is just a report and not the full data.  But it says MAY have been caused by the vaccine, and all the people were frail and over 80 (7 were over 90).  If you took 25,000 people like that, some are going to die every week even without the vaccine, so it isn't even clear if the 23 people is anything unusual.  In some of these age groups more than 1 in 10 will die naturally each year, which is 50 deaths a week.   Without a full age distribution, and a discussion of their frailty, it is impossible to say if this is unusual, or not.

Two things that are absolutely clear are:

The vaccine is nothing like as fatal as Coronavirus can be for these people (Covid is around 1/10 for these age groups, this is 1/1,000 so far);

These are absolutely not the only people who could benefit from this vaccine as the Cummins misinformation centre says.  We are both clearly going to benefit from the vaccine.  My chance of ending up in ICU really isn't that much less than someone in their 70s (about 50% of the chance from memory); and my chance if death from Covid is likely greater than 1%, with long Covid likely similar.  I'd really like to avoid all those outcomes. 

The head of the "free speech union", Toby Young has removed all his tweets from over a week ago.   

[Doobs]

Sweden

Why Sweden Covid deaths always appear to decrease.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting

Swedish deaths in 2020

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

2020 is clearly an outlier and that is clear even using data that was at 30 December 2020.  As the data was released early, it is going to be missing late death registrations from over the holiday period.  You can see the effect of late death registrations in the UK data I posted last night, and that was an update on data that was an update to data originally posted a few days after the end of the year.  I couldn't find any later data right now, but that total is certain to be revised upwards from there.   

[EvilPie]

Two things that are absolutely clear are:

The vaccine is nothing like as fatal as Coronavirus can be for these people (Covid is around 1/10 for these age groups, this is 1/1,000 so far);

Only if you actually catch it....

[Marky147]

Which we're almost certain to, eventually.

Hopefully when we do, we all get a dose like Mr Morris!

[Marky147]

The trials of these vaccines are effectively ongoing, so it shouldn't be a surprise that people are still reporting adverse findings; they should be. 

I can't comment too much on the report as it is just a report and not the full data.  But it says MAY have been caused by the vaccine, and all the people were frail and over 80 (7 were over 90).  If you took 25,000 people like that, some are going to die every week even without the vaccine, so it isn't even clear if the 23 people is anything unusual.  In some of these age groups more than 1 in 10 will die naturally each year, which is 50 deaths a week.   Without a full age distribution, and a discussion of their frailty, it is impossible to say if this is unusual, or not.

Two things that are absolutely clear are:

The vaccine is nothing like as fatal as Coronavirus can be for these people (Covid is around 1/10 for these age groups, this is 1/1,000 so far);

These are absolutely not the only people who could benefit from this vaccine as the Cummins misinformation centre says.  We are both clearly going to benefit from the vaccine.  My chance of ending up in ICU really isn't that much less than someone in their 70s (about 50% of the chance from memory); and my chance if death from Covid is likely greater than 1%, with long Covid likely similar.  I'd really like to avoid all those outcomes. 

The head of the "free speech union", Toby Young has removed all his tweets from over a week ago.   

I couldn't see the post when I clicked, and it seems the guy must have blocked me when I said to leave it wherever he liked

I don't know who Toby Young is? What was he tweeting that needed deleting?