COVID19

[Doobs]

I see there is something in Ireland about them not recognising the Oxford Vaccine as it's not recognised by the EMA or something.

Click to see full-size image.

Be annoying if they don't approve that one in the US

EMA Is the European medicines agency.

I'd kind of ignore it, because there is a good chance it is nonsense (either the person who replied is misinformed, or it is just a fake) and we don't even know where the AZ vaccine we got originated from.  I am pretty sure that what I got doesn't specify place of manufacture anyway. 

If Ireland are going to be a bit mad going forward then not sure we can do about it.  If they start refusing people from the UK, which has got very low levels of Covid right now, then it doesn't seem many people are getting in. 

[Marky147]

I'm not planning any Dublin trips, but could do without jumping through hoops for Vegas.

I'll plot up at the vaccination centre and they can give me one of each, if they want

[Doobs]

There is a lot of variance in the daily numbers, but we seem to have hit a flat spot again.

Deaths in England are still around 20 a day and hospitalisations are about 200 a day.  Cases look like they are still falling, but only by about 10% over the last week.  

Vaccinations are about the same levels of last week, so still not much sign of a vaccine shortage yet.

I assume this all means that there is likely to be an increase in cases and hospitalisations as we open up, but deaths should be nothing like the first two waves.

Moving on to something else.

I have seen this before, but another study shows smoking seems to be a positive for avoiding dying of Covid.

...yet another study finds smokers much less likely to be hospitalised with COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1384802146474921984

When I first saw similar in the early days of Covid, I just assumed it was bad smoking data, but am pretty sure it is a real effect now.  

I wouldn't recommend smoking going forward, even if this is shown to be true.  In the future post vaccination world, cancer and heart disease are likely to reclaim their status as the top 2 killers, and smoking signiifcantly increasesf mortality for both.  But for brief periods in the last 12 months, smoking may have been almost good for you.  It is still way more likely to give you blood clots than vaccination too.

  

Having said last week there was a lot of variance in the daily numbers, number of deaths varied between 14 and 17 over the last week in England.  I once saw some Covid death numbers from some dodgy Country (probably Belarus) and it was like someone had put them together who had no idea what randomness looked like, so it would go 4,4,4,4 and then 5,5,5,5 and then 4,4,4,4 and so on.  Anyway, English death numbers were put together by the Belarussian Ministry of Truth last week.  Anyways, normal service is resumed and deaths fell by about 25% last week from about 20 a day to about 15.  I know there are delay in the data, but we are likely to see some single figure death numbers next week.  1 death per week from 200 hospitals probably qualifies as an abundance of caution.   Surely now would be a good time to stop the restrictions Boris, particularly given the personal shitstorm you are in the middle of? damage to the economy?

UK hospitalisations are also falling steadily, down from about 200 a day to about 150

Cases are definitely falling less.  We are starting to see days that are higher than the same day as a week ago.  Overall we are down a little on the week.  A good proportion of these are likely false positives, but trends should be real.  Will just keep an eye on this.

Anyway mostly good news.

Going to talk about Sweden again, as it is a bit interesting, even for those of us who think lockdowns seem to work.

Sweden is hard to follow, as their data is so slow to come through.  I have now got some confidence that their January deaths are now about right, and they had deaths that were about 15% higher than normal.   By comparison UK deaths were 40% higher than normal for the frst 5 weeks of the year.  I think Swedish Covid cases are still increasing, so they are likely to get worse figures for us in March and April (we have had less deaths than expected, so we will be tough to beat), but their vaccine drive has taken off. They have now vaccinated 25% of their population with at least one dose.  I think this is around the level where you see massive reductions in Covid deaths, so they are unlikely to see massive deaths even if cases continue to rise there.  Given they had a better outcome than us over 2020, then they are likely to get a better outcome than the UK overall.

Having said all that, some of the graphs that this thread's favourite bogeyman are clearly nonsense (maybe all?), and there is zero chance that their overall deaths since January 2020 are 0.03% higher than 2019.  Deaths were up 10% over 2020 vs the previous year (I think it was about 8% vs the average of 5 years), so I assume that the data has either been mangled again, or zero consideration has been made for Swedish late reporting.

Anyway Sweden looks like it will be a success story, so I don't see the need to fiddle things.    





  

[Marky147]

Just need Boris to tell Virgin to get their flights in the air, and Joseph to put us on the welcome list

[Doobs]

https://twitter.com/chr1sa/status/1386495474312507399

It's now been almost a year since the New York Times put together this technically impressive yet totally wrong interactive article about how long it would take to get a Covid vaccine.



To be fair, it wasn't that easy to do this time last year, but snigger still.

[Marky147]

As if it was going to be like any other vaccine, which wouldn't have the absolute lot thrown at it.

This is interesting, if a little worrying for anyone using the Sputnik.

https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1387397186372005893

[Marky147]

Looks like it was out and about in 2019, after all.

[Doobs]

Looks like it was out and about in 2019, after all.

Don't know how likely it is to be completely accurate, but there is a bit oc a comp in the comments over who had it earliest.  My whole family had it after going out for a dodgy curry in Benidorm 2013.  Wasn't all that...

Hey Marky, getting a big feisty with Ivor the other day?  Definitely think Clare and him are getting a bit madder.  She saw a disturbing rise of deaths in the under 65s when Covid peaked.  Tough one to work out. 

You saw the UK suicide stats for 2020 the other day?  I did smile a bit that they had actually gone down last year, but think it is likely just reporting delays, and the likeliest final outcome is still that they will have risen a little.  Nothing like the crazier claims though.   It was a bit bizarre that the lowest quarter was quarter 2; I'd never have guessed that, so maybe there is a chance that there will be a genuine fall?

 

[Marky147]

Yeah, said last year that everyone I know that had a cold since 2019 was convinced they had it

I was bored, so threw him a couple lines to threads where he'd been ripped apart by actual scientists and doctors. Expected result, I was blocked in <10minutes, and I wasn't even rude.

I've seen plenty of things about suicides indicating what you say there, which must have driven the smileys to the edge.

[StuartHopkin]

4 weeks on Monday......

Will BoJo let us fly
Will Biden let us in

Nobody knows.......

Cases still dropping here though so open them pubs!
7 day average
13/04 = 2757
20/04 = 2476
27/04 = 2332
04/05 = 2023

Pretty impressive against things opening back up, vaccines ftw!

People in hospital
13/04 = 2409
20/04 = 1925
27/04 = 1558
04/05 = bit slower on reporting these numbers but it must be about to drop under 1000 which is incredible from the 40,000 peak

Deaths
7 day average
13/04 = 34.4
20/04 = 26.3
27/04 = 20.9
04/05 = 13.1

Not trying to steal your thunder Doobs, just had a spare 5 mins.

[Doobs]

4 weeks on Monday......

Will BoJo let us fly
Will Biden let us in

Nobody knows.......

Cases still dropping here though so open them pubs!
7 day average
13/04 = 2757
20/04 = 2476
27/04 = 2332
04/05 = 2023

Pretty impressive against things opening back up, vaccines ftw!

People in hospital
13/04 = 2409
20/04 = 1925
27/04 = 1558
04/05 = bit slower on reporting these numbers but it must be about to drop under 1000 which is incredible from the 40,000 peak

Deaths
7 day average
13/04 = 34.4
20/04 = 26.3
27/04 = 20.9
04/05 = 13.1

Not trying to steal your thunder Doobs, just had a spare 5 mins.

Good luck with your trip.  Saved me a job, so no worries.

Went to pick up my daughter from the ballet.  We are supposed to stand outside with masks on 2 metres apart.  The Saturday "dance mums" have already done away with the masks, but the Tuesday crew are a bit more stubborn.  Always seemed a bit silly letting our kids bounce around together on a Saturday, all maskless, all breathing heavily, then going outside to be greeted by us all in masks outside.  Going to feel a bit weird when all this ends.

Anyway open the pubs and tell the Tuesday crew it is OK to ditch the masks...   

[Marky147]

Screw the pubs, get those McCarran flights going

[StuartHopkin]

Screw the pubs, get those McCarran flights going

We want both! Someone tell Carrie I will refurb the flat!

[Marky147]

Screw the pubs, get those McCarran flights going

We want both! Someone tell Carrie I will refurb the flat!

I've got a casino trip booked in for the 21st, warm up for June

[Marky147]

This guy's channel is pretty good, and the polar opposite to the grifting team.

He didn't even monetise his channel recently, even then only did because everyone was telling him he should, and he has it setup to donate all YT revenue to a charity.