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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 354039 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #4125 on: April 22, 2021, 03:57:34 PM »

Just been at it with my mate who kept telling me India was fine, because they have Ivermectin and he'd ordered a load from India for himself. Now things are going badly, it's all made up, and mainstream lies, nobody is dying.


On a more positive note. Get those planes going, and chuck the travel ban out, Broseph!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-21/u-k-in-regular-talks-with-u-s-over-potential-travel-corridor

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Doobs
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« Reply #4126 on: April 22, 2021, 04:11:25 PM »

Just been at it with my mate who kept telling me India was fine, because they have Ivermectin and he'd ordered a load from India for himself. Now things are going badly, it's all made up, and mainstream lies, nobody is dying.


On a more positive note. Get those planes going, and chuck the travel ban out, Broseph!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-21/u-k-in-regular-talks-with-u-s-over-potential-travel-corridor



Your mate is right obv.  WHO are fiddling those stats for the Ivermectin countries of South America too.

Weird when Ivermectin is so much better than vaccines and lockdown CCP pseudoscience...
 Have you noticed how deaths are falling as we open up?  Wonder if your mate has noticed the correlation there?

Think I am getting there, just need to think of ways to monetise my new thinking. 

Looking good for opening up Marky, even high low risk states like Florida and Texas are getting chunks vaccinated now.   

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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #4127 on: April 22, 2021, 04:20:05 PM »



Wednesday update.

Deaths have carried on falling, but there is now a lot of fluctuation day to day.  The rate of improvement each week is around 30% a week, with roughly 20 deaths a day a week ago vs roughly 30 a day the week before.

Infections and cases still seem to be falling, but rates of improvement are now down to about 15% a week (Easter caused some interuptions, so it isn't that clear).  I saw someone claiming that R was now 1.4 or so last week.  There are cranks on both sides it seems, as that seems very unlikey on what I have seen.

Vaccinations are interesting, as first doses have fallen off a cliff.  The 7 day average has collapsed from 500k a day, 2 or 3 weeks ago, to 100k a day last week.  Most of the vaccination doses are now been used for second vaccinations of elderly people (300k a day or so).  There hasn't been a massive fall off in total vaccination doses yet.

So not much going on to justify the continuation of UK restrictions, though the following this morning from John Roberts is interesting. 

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1382256588006813700

There is now some evidence that antbodies to Covid are falling among the elderly.  This might be corrected by 2nd dosed of the vaccines, and may nort reflect decreased immunity.  The elderly are already thought to have a lower benefit from vaccination.  Also the Astra Zenca vaccine has lower efiiciacy over the South African variant.  So not entirely out of the woods yet, but the levels of South African variant in the UK are still very low.  Moving to secoond doses for the vulnerable seems like very good timing in the circumstances.


There is a lot of variance in the daily numbers, but we seem to have hit a flat spot again.

Deaths in England are still around 20 a day and hospitalisations are about 200 a day.  Cases look like they are still falling, but only by about 10% over the last week. 

Vaccinations are about the same levels of last week, so still not much sign of a vaccine shortage yet.

I assume this all means that there is likely to be an increase in cases and hospitalisations as we open up, but deaths should be nothing like the first two waves.

Moving on to something else.

I have seen this before, but another study shows smoking seems to be a positive for avoiding dying of Covid.

...yet another study finds smokers much less likely to be hospitalised with COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1384802146474921984

When I first saw similar in the early days of Covid, I just assumed it was bad smoking data, but am pretty sure it is a real effect now. 

I wouldn't recommend smoking going forward, even if this is shown to be true.  In the future post vaccination world, cancer and heart disease are likely to reclaim their status as the top 2 killers, and smoking signiifcantly increasesf mortality for both.  But for brief periods in the last 12 months, smoking may have been almost good for you.  It is still way more likely to give you blood clots than vaccination too.

 

Deaths are still coming down nicely

7 day average was 30 last week and now its 22

Obviously dependent where/what you are looking at
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EvilPie
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« Reply #4128 on: April 22, 2021, 04:26:51 PM »


I have seen this before, but another study shows smoking seems to be a positive for avoiding dying of Covid.

...yet another study finds smokers much less likely to be hospitalised with COVID-19.


Is this possibly because the biggest factor with covid hospitalisation is age and smokers generally don't live as long as non-smokers?

How many 90 year old smokers are there? I'm guessing not too many and those that are still alive have probably got some epic genetics that make them resilient to pretty much everything.

Just speculating here by the way, not stating any facts.

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« Reply #4129 on: April 22, 2021, 06:08:40 PM »



I have seen this before, but another study shows smoking seems to be a positive for avoiding dying of Covid.

...yet another study finds smokers much less likely to be hospitalised with COVID-19.


Is this possibly because the biggest factor with covid hospitalisation is age and smokers generally don't live as long as non-smokers?

How many 90 year old smokers are there? I'm guessing not too many and those that are still alive have probably got some epic genetics that make them resilient to pretty much everything.

Just speculating here by the way, not stating any facts.



I really don't know why, so your theory is as good as any.  I like the idea that they have screwed up their lungs so much that Covid can't get through.

The people who did the study wrote this stuff below, so it looks like they don't really know either.  A lot of it is beyond my understanding, so I can't really add anything useful.  I could probably analyse Covid by smoking proportions by country, but there is so much other variation (population age, lockdowns, vaccination proportions etc.) it would be hard for me to do anything useful. 

Several mechanisms have been proposed to describe the association between tobacco use and severe COVID-19. Tobacco smoke impairs mucociliary clearance, weakens innate and adaptive immune responses and increases the risk of both viral and bacterial pulmonary infections. Tobacco use has been shown to increase levels of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), the unique receptor used by SARS-COV2 to enter host cells.

Alternatively, a potentially protective role of tobacco use in COVID-19 infection has been theorized. Nicotine, a highly addictive, psychoactive alkaloid contained in tobacco products, has shown immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects. Tobacco use has also been linked to increased nitric oxide production in the lungs, resulting in diminished viral replication and impaired viral entry into host cells. Nicotine has also demonstrated a protective effect for ARDS animal models, and is thought to potentially inhibit Interleukin-6, a key player in the cytokine release syndrome induced by SARS-COV2 infection. And while some studies report upregulation of ACE2 receptors for SARS-COV2 cell entry in tobacco users, others challenge this claim and report an interaction between nicotine and the renin-angiotensin system, resulting in reduced ACE2 levels. Moreover, several series throughout the world have reported a low prevalence of current smokers among people that tested positive for SARS-COV2 and/or were hospitalized due to COVID-19.


 

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« Reply #4130 on: April 22, 2021, 06:15:23 PM »



Wednesday update.

Deaths have carried on falling, but there is now a lot of fluctuation day to day.  The rate of improvement each week is around 30% a week, with roughly 20 deaths a day a week ago vs roughly 30 a day the week before.

Infections and cases still seem to be falling, but rates of improvement are now down to about 15% a week (Easter caused some interuptions, so it isn't that clear).  I saw someone claiming that R was now 1.4 or so last week.  There are cranks on both sides it seems, as that seems very unlikey on what I have seen.

Vaccinations are interesting, as first doses have fallen off a cliff.  The 7 day average has collapsed from 500k a day, 2 or 3 weeks ago, to 100k a day last week.  Most of the vaccination doses are now been used for second vaccinations of elderly people (300k a day or so).  There hasn't been a massive fall off in total vaccination doses yet.

So not much going on to justify the continuation of UK restrictions, though the following this morning from John Roberts is interesting. 

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1382256588006813700

There is now some evidence that antbodies to Covid are falling among the elderly.  This might be corrected by 2nd dosed of the vaccines, and may nort reflect decreased immunity.  The elderly are already thought to have a lower benefit from vaccination.  Also the Astra Zenca vaccine has lower efiiciacy over the South African variant.  So not entirely out of the woods yet, but the levels of South African variant in the UK are still very low.  Moving to secoond doses for the vulnerable seems like very good timing in the circumstances.


There is a lot of variance in the daily numbers, but we seem to have hit a flat spot again.

Deaths in England are still around 20 a day and hospitalisations are about 200 a day.  Cases look like they are still falling, but only by about 10% over the last week. 

Vaccinations are about the same levels of last week, so still not much sign of a vaccine shortage yet.

I assume this all means that there is likely to be an increase in cases and hospitalisations as we open up, but deaths should be nothing like the first two waves.

Moving on to something else.

I have seen this before, but another study shows smoking seems to be a positive for avoiding dying of Covid.

...yet another study finds smokers much less likely to be hospitalised with COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1384802146474921984

When I first saw similar in the early days of Covid, I just assumed it was bad smoking data, but am pretty sure it is a real effect now. 

I wouldn't recommend smoking going forward, even if this is shown to be true.  In the future post vaccination world, cancer and heart disease are likely to reclaim their status as the top 2 killers, and smoking signiifcantly increasesf mortality for both.  But for brief periods in the last 12 months, smoking may have been almost good for you.  It is still way more likely to give you blood clots than vaccination too.

 

Deaths are still coming down nicely

7 day average was 30 last week and now its 22

Obviously dependent where/what you are looking at

I think it is likely just timing differences.  I looked at the week up until last Wednesday to make sure there weren't any late reports.  If you look at the week until yesterday, you might see clearer falls, but you may also be just seeing missing data.  These low numbers mean variance is higher anyway, so it is probably better to look at trends from cases and hospitalisations going forward.
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Marky147
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« Reply #4131 on: April 22, 2021, 08:18:32 PM »

Booked in for the bloodclotter dose II next Friday.

Could have gone Saturday to make it exactly 12 weeks, but wanted the extra day in case I get the same icky 36 hours as last time.

Went to the barber yesterday, which was a most enjoyable experience after over 4 months away.

Gym on Monday, which I'm sure is likely to be the opposite Cheesy
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booder
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« Reply #4132 on: April 22, 2021, 08:28:02 PM »

Booked in for the bloodclotter dose II next Friday.

Could have gone Saturday to make it exactly 12 weeks, but wanted the extra day in case I get the same icky 36 hours as last time.

Went to the barber yesterday, which was a most enjoyable experience after over 4 months away.

Gym on Monday, which I'm sure is likely to be the opposite Cheesy


You didn't shave that marvelous beard off did you ?
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im not speculating, either, but id have been pretty peeved if i missed the thread and i ended up getting clipped, kindly accepting a lift home.

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Marky147
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« Reply #4133 on: April 22, 2021, 08:37:17 PM »

Booked in for the bloodclotter dose II next Friday.

Could have gone Saturday to make it exactly 12 weeks, but wanted the extra day in case I get the same icky 36 hours as last time.

Went to the barber yesterday, which was a most enjoyable experience after over 4 months away.

Gym on Monday, which I'm sure is likely to be the opposite Cheesy

You didn't shave that marvelous beard off did you ?


It had to go, unfortunately Cheesy
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RED-DOG
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« Reply #4134 on: April 22, 2021, 08:45:42 PM »

Booked in for the bloodclotter dose II next Friday.

Could have gone Saturday to make it exactly 12 weeks, but wanted the extra day in case I get the same icky 36 hours as last time.

Went to the barber yesterday, which was a most enjoyable experience after over 4 months away.

Gym on Monday, which I'm sure is likely to be the opposite Cheesy

You didn't shave that marvelous beard off did you ?


It had to go, unfortunately Cheesy


I've been doing my own haircuts with Rod's recommended dog-clippers



 Click to see full-size image.



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booder
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« Reply #4135 on: April 22, 2021, 09:19:21 PM »

Looking well Tom.
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im not speculating, either, but id have been pretty peeved if i missed the thread and i ended up getting clipped, kindly accepting a lift home.

In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.
Martin Luther King Jr
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« Reply #4136 on: April 22, 2021, 09:59:24 PM »

I'm not a drinking man but I love a pint of Carling in a sunny beer garden.
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Marky147
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« Reply #4137 on: April 22, 2021, 10:01:26 PM »

Booked in for the bloodclotter dose II next Friday.

Could have gone Saturday to make it exactly 12 weeks, but wanted the extra day in case I get the same icky 36 hours as last time.

Went to the barber yesterday, which was a most enjoyable experience after over 4 months away.

Gym on Monday, which I'm sure is likely to be the opposite Cheesy

You didn't shave that marvelous beard off did you ?


It had to go, unfortunately Cheesy


I've been doing my own haircuts with Rod's recommended dog-clippers



 Click to see full-size image.



Marvelous!

I'd been clippering my Willie Thorne head, but didn't dare let anyone loose on my boat.

Only the Turkish are allowed  anywhere near that, and the Barbershop @ Cosmo, too.
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arbboy
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« Reply #4138 on: April 22, 2021, 10:02:21 PM »

I'm not a drinking man but I love a pint of Carling in a sunny beer garden.

The rural beer gardens were very pleasant in the sun this afternoon. 
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« Reply #4139 on: April 22, 2021, 11:13:37 PM »

Booked in for the bloodclotter dose II next Friday.

Could have gone Saturday to make it exactly 12 weeks, but wanted the extra day in case I get the same icky 36 hours as last time.

Went to the barber yesterday, which was a most enjoyable experience after over 4 months away.

Gym on Monday, which I'm sure is likely to be the opposite Cheesy

2nd dose was worse for me and the mrs. I just felt very tired the next day, mrs had full on flu symptoms but lasted less than two days
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