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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 167325 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #615 on: March 20, 2020, 08:15:03 PM »

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/media/trump-rant-at-nbc-news-peter-alexander/index.html

When the USA wants reassurance his response is to attack the guy asking a perfectly
reasonable question.

He is really irritating me , really .

Jeez, the man is deranged. I genuinely think he is mentally unwell.

Awful to see this go unchallenged by the other people present

Trump is the ultimate yes man loving guesser.   Anyone that stands behind him is highly skilled at smiling when they shouldn't and constant head nodding.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #616 on: March 20, 2020, 08:23:49 PM »

I think Johnson has been fine in the press conferences, in a very difficult spot. The idea that they are handling it well is ridiculous though. We had the most warning of any of the large western nations and our graph looks for sure that we’ll top the death numbers given the current trajectory and the  timing of the limited measures that we have put in place. We keep hearing it’s a balance between the economy and preserving life, we seem perfectly placed to be worst on both.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Check the pound against the euro/dollar in the last month, it’s a massacre. It’s hard for the pound and the FTSE to fall of a cliff at the same time but we’re managing it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp


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AndrewT
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« Reply #617 on: March 20, 2020, 08:24:17 PM »

It's interesting watching Boris here - this is the most serious announcement he's had to make in his political career, yet he is still utterly incapable of gravitas - still bumbling, lots of 'er, er, look here now'.

If you are focussing on his deliver right now, you need to have a word with yourself.

These are massive commitments for a government of any colour, I think it was along the lines of what John McDonnell was asking for.

He is the PM - one of his key responsibilities in a time of national crisis is to act as an inspiration for people - be someone who calms the nation and makes people think 'everything's going to be ok, because this guy is calling the shots'

Being his usual bumbling self does not do this, giving the impression of someone who is making decisions eventually, after a week of being told that not enough is being done - he is failing a key part of the job.

I watched the press conference. His style can often look like he is playing the clown but he looked pretty sober and serious to me.

Whether you like him or not, he does have charisma that is lacking in previous leaders like May.

I don’t think anyone (other than the likes of you and momentum nut jobs) can criticise him today.

I notice that you didn’t criticise the policy announcement which was a massive financial commitment to help ordinary workers.

Your comments look petty and ill judged at a time like this.

'He has more charisma than Theresa May' is not the strongest of endorsements for Boris.

The financial policy announcements as they are are fine - they still don't do much for people who are self-employed or for people who are renting - but are a good start. They are also far more in line with an economic policy that would be suggested by a chancellor who was a 'momentum nut job'. Glad to hear you're seeing the light Rick - keep the red flag flying high.

Well I did smile.

I suppose extreme circumstances need extreme actions, unfortunately McDonnell thinks extreme actions in normal economic times are acceptable.

I saw McDonnell suggesting this policy this morning, so I thought he’d be happy.

A friend just texted me to say McDonnell is now moaning that it’s not enough and they should be doing more to stimulate the economy (haven’t seen it personally). It’s pretty hard to do that when everyone is sat at home ffs.

As you say, the reason extreme measures are needed is because it’s a very serious situation for everyone. However, even in normal economic times, it’s a very serious, life or death situation for many people every day, and the purposes of a McDonnell budget would be to help alleviate things for those people, in the same way that Sunak has tried to do for everyone today.
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Ironside
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« Reply #618 on: March 20, 2020, 08:26:04 PM »

hey i no fan of boris, jezza or nicola but when i hear nicola in her conference agreeing with how boris is handling things then i am happy
can't get them to agree on anything normally

What’s more worrying is that you are a Jimmy Krankie supporter! 

i hate all 3
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lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
kukushkin88
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« Reply #619 on: March 20, 2020, 08:34:04 PM »

I think Johnson has been fine in the press conferences, in a very difficult spot. The idea that they are handling it well is ridiculous though. We had the most warning of any of the large western nations and our graph looks for sure that we’ll top the death numbers given the current trajectory and the  timing of the limited measures that we have put in place. We keep hearing it’s a balance between the economy and preserving life, we seem perfectly placed to be worst on both.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Check the pound against the euro/dollar in the last month, it’s a massacre. It’s hard for the pound and the FTSE to fall of a cliff at the same time but we’re managing it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp


https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices-chart.html?index=UKX
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Woodsey
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« Reply #620 on: March 20, 2020, 08:37:55 PM »

I think Johnson has been fine in the press conferences, in a very difficult spot. The idea that they are handling it well is ridiculous though. We had the most warning of any of the large western nations and our graph looks for sure that we’ll top the death numbers given the current trajectory and the  timing of the limited measures that we have put in place. We keep hearing it’s a balance between the economy and preserving life, we seem perfectly placed to be worst on both.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Check the pound against the euro/dollar in the last month, it’s a massacre. It’s hard for the pound and the FTSE to fall of a cliff at the same time but we’re managing it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp


https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices-chart.html?index=UKX

Check out the stock exchanges of those countries you think have done a better job at managing COVID....
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Marky147
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« Reply #621 on: March 20, 2020, 08:40:31 PM »

I saw dollar dropped about 15c in a week, but wasn't sure why as everyone is under it.

Any reason why we took such a hammering there?
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Jon MW
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« Reply #622 on: March 20, 2020, 08:54:35 PM »

I saw dollar dropped about 15c in a week, but wasn't sure why as everyone is under it.

Any reason why we took such a hammering there?

My guess would be Brexit.

We could have another 10 year recession and we're the only big country not in a safe trading group I think we're going to keep getting hammered for a long time
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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Marky147
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« Reply #623 on: March 20, 2020, 09:19:33 PM »

I saw dollar dropped about 15c in a week, but wasn't sure why as everyone is under it.

Any reason why we took such a hammering there?

My guess would be Brexit.

We could have another 10 year recession and we're the only big country not in a safe trading group I think we're going to keep getting hammered for a long time

Marv...
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Jon MW
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« Reply #624 on: March 20, 2020, 09:29:37 PM »

I think Johnson has been fine in the press conferences, in a very difficult spot. The idea that they are handling it well is ridiculous though. We had the most warning of any of the large western nations and our graph looks for sure that we’ll top the death numbers given the current trajectory and the  timing of the limited measures that we have put in place. We keep hearing it’s a balance between the economy and preserving life, we seem perfectly placed to be worst on both.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Check the pound against the euro/dollar in the last month, it’s a massacre. It’s hard for the pound and the FTSE to fall of a cliff at the same time but we’re managing it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp


Maybe we have had a bad strategy and maybe we will do comparatively badly.

But it's way, way too early to have any idea at all about either.

Economically we're in a terrible position because of the weakness we have because of Brexit (I think, doesn't seem too much of a stretch) - that's the fault of the current government but has nothing to do with their handling of this epidemic.

Medically we're not going to have a decent amount of data to analyse for about 5 years. If we do badly in a first wave then better in subsequent waves the overall effect could be that we have the fewest casualties.

But even the longer term data won't be clearcut; even if you use the absolutely perfect strategy to deal with the epidemic but you have a much higher proportion of vulnerable patients and/or a much lower ICU capacity your figures are going to be worse than a country using a sub-optimal strategy but with better variables.

The latter of these might still be the responsibility of the current government - but again, still isn't anything to do with the quality of their strategy.

The differing variables vary so wildly between countries that the optimal strategy is probably (at least slightly) different for every country, there are so many input and output variables that it's almost certainly impossible to know for certain how much better or worse any country could have done apart from in the very broadest of terms; and certainly not for quite a while.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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« Reply #625 on: March 20, 2020, 09:40:14 PM »

I'm hoping the government's medical strategy isn't too bad though because, apart from cancelling exams, they've done everything Science Wife said they should do and they've done them at the time she said they should.

She predicted the schools would close from next week until after Easter well over a month ago for example.

Cancelling exams just didn't seem possible because it's basically such a big deal, but it unlocks the whole strategy. Without that it isn't really worth making an exception for only key workers (key workers children plus those taking exams is so high you might as well just let everybody back).  Once key workers are the only exceptions it lets you keep the schools closed up to and over the peak so she thinks it was a bold move to cancel exams, but a good one.

On the other hand she does prefer pathogens to people so maybe her end goal would be viral armageddon anyway Cheesy
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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Marky147
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« Reply #626 on: March 20, 2020, 09:42:04 PM »

Superb!

Think Science Wife might just be my blonde of the decade, and we're only 3 months in Grin
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arbboy
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« Reply #627 on: March 20, 2020, 09:50:39 PM »

I saw dollar dropped about 15c in a week, but wasn't sure why as everyone is under it.

Any reason why we took such a hammering there?

My guess would be Brexit.

We could have another 10 year recession and we're the only big country not in a safe trading group I think we're going to keep getting hammered for a long time

I really agree with this and it seems a perfect storm with brexit happening just before this once in a century carnage.  I don't see a logical bounce back economically from this because the economy has been living on borrowed money and bullshiit for well over a decade.   It's amazing no one at the daily mail has mentioned substantial house price falls which 'finally' will happen even though they should have happened 15 years ago everyone wiill have an excuse now when they are not as rich as they thought they were.  Blame the virus.   i think long term for the economy we needed something like this to sort the economy out and make us realise most people were no where near as rich as they thought they were.   Red and blue governments for thirty years have been obsessed wtth house prices and the key swing seat votes they win.

ps when was the last 10 year recession in our lifetimes?   Govt's have made sure recessions never hurt which is why everyone thiinks they were much richer than they actually are.  All joking aside with Woodsey and his pension but when a medical sales rep in his 40's is probably a millionaire through his overvalued pension fund and house prices from cheap money and nearly negative interest rates you know the world is about to go pop.   This iisn't a pop at Woodsey directly but millions of relatively normal working folk like him that think they are minted on borrowed money and mythical share prices and house priices.

i am convinced the last twenty years will be looked on in history in two hundred years and they all say 'wtf were these guessers thinking?'  To confirm i am not aftertiming i said in 2002 house prices were stupidly overvalued relative to wages.  I still stand by this now.  The economy is bonkers because governementts of both colours only care about daily mail reading swing voters who win elections and pleasing their desire for house prices to rise.   The political class are ultimately to blame for this crisis not this virus.  This virus has just made everyone wake up.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 10:03:19 PM by arbboy » Logged
kukushkin88
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« Reply #628 on: March 20, 2020, 10:02:37 PM »

I think Johnson has been fine in the press conferences, in a very difficult spot. The idea that they are handling it well is ridiculous though. We had the most warning of any of the large western nations and our graph looks for sure that we’ll top the death numbers given the current trajectory and the  timing of the limited measures that we have put in place. We keep hearing it’s a balance between the economy and preserving life, we seem perfectly placed to be worst on both.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Check the pound against the euro/dollar in the last month, it’s a massacre. It’s hard for the pound and the FTSE to fall of a cliff at the same time but we’re managing it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp


Maybe we have had a bad strategy and maybe we will do comparatively badly.

But it's way, way too early to have any idea at all about either.

Economically we're in a terrible position because of the weakness we have because of Brexit (I think, doesn't seem too much of a stretch) - that's the fault of the current government but has nothing to do with their handling of this epidemic.

Medically we're not going to have a decent amount of data to analyse for about 5 years. If we do badly in a first wave then better in subsequent waves the overall effect could be that we have the fewest casualties.

But even the longer term data won't be clearcut; even if you use the absolutely perfect strategy to deal with the epidemic but you have a much higher proportion of vulnerable patients and/or a much lower ICU capacity your figures are going to be worse than a country using a sub-optimal strategy but with better variables.

The latter of these might still be the responsibility of the current government - but again, still isn't anything to do with the quality of their strategy.

The differing variables vary so wildly between countries that the optimal strategy is probably (at least slightly) different for every country, there are so many input and output variables that it's almost certainly impossible to know for certain how much better or worse any country could have done apart from in the very broadest of terms; and certainly not for quite a while.

I think this is a good post and I agree with lots of it, especially how long it will take to play out. The key point for us though is the considerable lack of ICU/respirator capacity compared to all the comparable nations. That is why many (including me) think we should have gone harder earlier on the lockdown and spent that window doing all we could to increase the critical care capacity.
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Woodsey
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« Reply #629 on: March 20, 2020, 10:10:19 PM »

I think Johnson has been fine in the press conferences, in a very difficult spot. The idea that they are handling it well is ridiculous though. We had the most warning of any of the large western nations and our graph looks for sure that we’ll top the death numbers given the current trajectory and the  timing of the limited measures that we have put in place. We keep hearing it’s a balance between the economy and preserving life, we seem perfectly placed to be worst on both.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Check the pound against the euro/dollar in the last month, it’s a massacre. It’s hard for the pound and the FTSE to fall of a cliff at the same time but we’re managing it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp


Maybe we have had a bad strategy and maybe we will do comparatively badly.

But it's way, way too early to have any idea at all about either.

Economically we're in a terrible position because of the weakness we have because of Brexit (I think, doesn't seem too much of a stretch) - that's the fault of the current government but has nothing to do with their handling of this epidemic.

Medically we're not going to have a decent amount of data to analyse for about 5 years. If we do badly in a first wave then better in subsequent waves the overall effect could be that we have the fewest casualties.

But even the longer term data won't be clearcut; even if you use the absolutely perfect strategy to deal with the epidemic but you have a much higher proportion of vulnerable patients and/or a much lower ICU capacity your figures are going to be worse than a country using a sub-optimal strategy but with better variables.

The latter of these might still be the responsibility of the current government - but again, still isn't anything to do with the quality of their strategy.

The differing variables vary so wildly between countries that the optimal strategy is probably (at least slightly) different for every country, there are so many input and output variables that it's almost certainly impossible to know for certain how much better or worse any country could have done apart from in the very broadest of terms; and certainly not for quite a while.

I think this is a good post and I agree with lots of it, especially how long it will take to play out. The key point for us though is the considerable lack of ICU/respirator capacity compared to all the comparable nations. That is why many (including me) think we should have gone harder earlier on the lockdown and spent that window doing all we could to increase the critical care capacity.

Despite what you may think you are not an expert......leave it to them.
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