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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 167313 times)
Jon MW
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« Reply #645 on: March 21, 2020, 04:37:22 PM »

It is a bit weird that the number of tests dropped so much after steadily rising.

It might have been better if the announcement had been that they were aiming to test 10k a day and aiming to test 25k a day rather than saying they were 'going' to be; particularly as when Boris Johnson said we're increasing the number of tests from 10 to 25 - we hadn't even got to 10.

I dont' think there's anything manipulative or sinister going on though, I think it's just sub-standard choice of words.

My guess for the numbers is that there's some periodic technical bottleneck they reached and the numbers will go back up again (interesting if they don't though).
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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nirvana
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« Reply #646 on: March 21, 2020, 06:23:13 PM »

Perhaps we could just carry on as if nothing happened and pay the families a large settlement if a family member dies from the virus.

80+      100k
70-79    150k
60-69    250k
50-59    375k
40-49    600k
< 40     1 millball

20% reduction if any pre existing conditions

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Marky147
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« Reply #647 on: March 21, 2020, 06:35:26 PM »

Perhaps we could just carry on as if nothing happened and pay the families a large settlement if a family member dies from the virus.

80+      100k
70-79    150k
60-69    250k
50-59    375k
40-49    600k
< 40     1 millball

20% reduction if any pre existing conditions

My folks would nick 800 grand if I jogged on before November Cheesy
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nirvana
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« Reply #648 on: March 21, 2020, 06:48:42 PM »

Perhaps we could just carry on as if nothing happened and pay the families a large settlement if a family member dies from the virus.

80+      100k
70-79    150k
60-69    250k
50-59    375k
40-49    600k
< 40     1 millball

20% reduction if any pre existing conditions

My folks would nick 800 grand if I jogged on before November Cheesy

Might have to re-calc - they deserve more for your sacrifice :-)
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nirvana
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« Reply #649 on: March 21, 2020, 06:52:28 PM »

Could add a free funeral  for 70+

Free funeral and electric car for 60-69

Free funeral, electric car and conversion away from Gas in their home for anyone sub 59

Solve climate change at the same time
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nirvana
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« Reply #650 on: March 21, 2020, 06:55:15 PM »

Jncentives to not go on a ventialtor and take up an ICU bed - available to over 70s = + 25%
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nirvana
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« Reply #651 on: March 21, 2020, 06:59:15 PM »

N inheritance tax  due for anyone who dies of the virus
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Marky147
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« Reply #652 on: March 21, 2020, 07:10:19 PM »

Perhaps we could just carry on as if nothing happened and pay the families a large settlement if a family member dies from the virus.

80+      100k
70-79    150k
60-69    250k
50-59    375k
40-49    600k
< 40     1 millball

20% reduction if any pre existing conditions

My folks would nick 800 grand if I jogged on before November Cheesy

Might have to re-calc - they deserve more for your sacrifice :-)


Old dear be trying to get a trolly to strap to the front of my chair, so I can get out shopping... Big diff between 800 and 480 Grin
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Karabiner
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« Reply #653 on: March 21, 2020, 07:11:34 PM »

Could add a free funeral  for 70+

Free funeral and electric car for 60-69

Free funeral, electric car and conversion away from Gas in their home for anyone sub 59

Solve climate change at the same time

The funerals are going to be by video-link only - they'll be frightful.
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EvilPie
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« Reply #654 on: March 21, 2020, 07:45:19 PM »

It is a bit weird that the number of tests dropped so much after steadily rising.

It might have been better if the announcement had been that they were aiming to test 10k a day and aiming to test 25k a day rather than saying they were 'going' to be; particularly as when Boris Johnson said we're increasing the number of tests from 10 to 25 - we hadn't even got to 10.

I dont' think there's anything manipulative or sinister going on though, I think it's just sub-standard choice of words.

My guess for the numbers is that there's some periodic technical bottleneck they reached and the numbers will go back up again (interesting if they don't though).

I have a feeling the tests will ramp up pretty soon. We've been working on an "assessment pod" in Nottingham that is almost complete and I assume will go in to action as soon as it's ready.

The specification for the unit which came direct from NHS England has drawings in it dated early Feb and was clearly a document sent out to all trusts so they've been working on this for some time.

They're just portacabins adapted for specific use obviously with segregation zones etc. There are a few modular building suppliers who will have been doing their bit delivering the buildings to trusts all over the country and then the contractors have to weigh in to get services to them.

They'll all take a similar amount of time to complete but it'll be a rolling programme. Once the first ones come on line expect the ramp up to be incredibly rapid.
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« Reply #655 on: March 21, 2020, 07:51:49 PM »

It is a bit weird that the number of tests dropped so much after steadily rising.

It might have been better if the announcement had been that they were aiming to test 10k a day and aiming to test 25k a day rather than saying they were 'going' to be; particularly as when Boris Johnson said we're increasing the number of tests from 10 to 25 - we hadn't even got to 10.

I dont' think there's anything manipulative or sinister going on though, I think it's just sub-standard choice of words.

My guess for the numbers is that there's some periodic technical bottleneck they reached and the numbers will go back up again (interesting if they don't though).

I have a feeling the tests will ramp up pretty soon. We've been working on an "assessment pod" in Nottingham that is almost complete and I assume will go in to action as soon as it's ready.

The specification for the unit which came direct from NHS England has drawings in it dated early Feb and was clearly a document sent out to all trusts so they've been working on this for some time.

They're just portacabins adapted for specific use obviously with segregation zones etc. There are a few modular building suppliers who will have been doing their bit delivering the buildings to trusts all over the country and then the contractors have to weigh in to get services to them.

They'll all take a similar amount of time to complete but it'll be a rolling programme. Once the first ones come on line expect the ramp up to be incredibly rapid.


There are already some up and running, I saw at least 3 the week before last on my journey around various hospitals.....
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« Reply #656 on: March 21, 2020, 07:59:54 PM »

It is a bit weird that the number of tests dropped so much after steadily rising.

It might have been better if the announcement had been that they were aiming to test 10k a day and aiming to test 25k a day rather than saying they were 'going' to be; particularly as when Boris Johnson said we're increasing the number of tests from 10 to 25 - we hadn't even got to 10.

I dont' think there's anything manipulative or sinister going on though, I think it's just sub-standard choice of words.

My guess for the numbers is that there's some periodic technical bottleneck they reached and the numbers will go back up again (interesting if they don't though).

I have a feeling the tests will ramp up pretty soon. We've been working on an "assessment pod" in Nottingham that is almost complete and I assume will go in to action as soon as it's ready.

The specification for the unit which came direct from NHS England has drawings in it dated early Feb and was clearly a document sent out to all trusts so they've been working on this for some time.

They're just portacabins adapted for specific use obviously with segregation zones etc. There are a few modular building suppliers who will have been doing their bit delivering the buildings to trusts all over the country and then the contractors have to weigh in to get services to them.

They'll all take a similar amount of time to complete but it'll be a rolling programme. Once the first ones come on line expect the ramp up to be incredibly rapid.


There are already some up and running, I saw at least 3 the week before last on my journey around various hospitals.....

Can confirm this.  My mum was going on about them at her local hospital earlier in the week.  They also starting to offer telephone consultations with consultants rather than face to face if it is possible.
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« Reply #657 on: March 22, 2020, 02:36:36 AM »

...
Funny that their science was different to that of so many other countries.

a. the science isn't different - the maths might be;
bi. the maths might be because they are other countries;
bii. for example, they use Intensive Care capacity as a very key variable to inform their results - this is all going to be different everywhere.
c. I haven't seen any similar analysis to compare it to. If the WHO have a similar paper then I could look at the differences for example.

I don't think the science and maths was different, the reaction to it was different in some counties than others.  

We do have an advantage vs some countries, as we have effectively conducted our actions earlier in our epidemic than others have in theirs.


d. It could be a disastrous miscalculation based on arrogantly thinking they know better than the conventional wisdom.


So it seems that there was actually an arm-wrestling match going on behind the scenes between differing scientific views, while they pretended they were basing their different-to-all-other-countries policies on 'science', and we followed the non-standard view until they realised that it was disastrous, at which point they belatedly came in line.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

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Jon MW
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« Reply #658 on: March 22, 2020, 08:39:59 AM »

...
Funny that their science was different to that of so many other countries.

a. the science isn't different - the maths might be;
bi. the maths might be because they are other countries;
bii. for example, they use Intensive Care capacity as a very key variable to inform their results - this is all going to be different everywhere.
c. I haven't seen any similar analysis to compare it to. If the WHO have a similar paper then I could look at the differences for example.

I don't think the science and maths was different, the reaction to it was different in some counties than others.  

We do have an advantage vs some countries, as we have effectively conducted our actions earlier in our epidemic than others have in theirs.


d. It could be a disastrous miscalculation based on arrogantly thinking they know better than the conventional wisdom.


So it seems that there was actually an arm-wrestling match going on behind the scenes between differing scientific views, while they pretended they were basing their different-to-all-other-countries policies on 'science', and we followed the non-standard view until they realised that it was disastrous, at which point they belatedly came in line.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach



Are the underlying facts in the story a surprise?

I think it's been repeated a few times that in the response to an epidemic 'what' you have to do is always known, the only question is 'when'.

Just recently in response to Kush saying we'll be able to see the efficay of the strategies followed after the event I highlighted that even with the data available this won't necessarily be the case as there are so many factors inolved, and even the same data and the same factors can be interpreted differently.

I've read some of the details of those disagreements, they primarily seem to be about starting assumptions. For example some strategies you might assume 75% will comply with, but other experts might only think 50% will comply - another disagreement was about what age you use as the cutoff for being vulnerable - they ended up going for 70 but some wanted younger. When you change the starting assumptions it makes the modelled progress of the epidemic different which can change drastically the most appropriate timing for your action.

It sounds like there was also disagreement with the final interpretation but the main gist is that if you got a whole bunch of infectious disease experts together and they all agreed on all these points it would be pretty bizarre; it's incredibly unlikely.

Fundamentally I don't see any difference to what they've reported going on here to what I would expect to be happening in other countries - the difference is that we've been told about it and have access to this information - I still haven't seen any government level data on what other countries are/were basing their strategies on for example - would absolutely love this to see where it diverged from the Imperial model.

The question of whether individual experts are controlling the policy too much is an interesting one. Science Wife strongly believes any government ministers for Science should have scientific expertise whereas I have always argued that the role of government ministers isn't to be an expert but to be a manager who organises the data and decides on the best course of action from this. This epidemic response is that but on a larger scale. On an abstract level I'd be wanting the expert advice to be given to the Prime Minister detailing the range of responses and the arguments for and against them with the Prime Minister making the final decision. But.... specifically, with this Prime Minister I'd have my doubts.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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Jon MW
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« Reply #659 on: March 22, 2020, 08:41:24 AM »

Also, to reiterate - I'm not saying that the UK's response is definitely right; more that the conclusion that it is definitely wrong is a little rash.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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