COVID19

[Doobs]

Probably the only positive to this is that this utter shitshow should be the end of Trump and Johnson.

Of course it won’t, Boris will emerge as the hero at the end of this  

For Boris, this is the equivalent of the Falklands for Lady Thatcher.

I can see it now, his arms held high with the adulation of having defeated the virus, with the additional halo effect of holding a newborn baby on the doorstep of number 10. Bigger majority than last time at the next election, stuff of legends  

Was thinking, nah it is going to be so difficult to get a positive result but...

along comes Jezza to score one last own goal  before the final whistle.

 Corbyn, who stands down next month, also said he would not be self-isolating even though he’s over 70.

[Woodsey]

Probably the only positive to this is that this utter shitshow should be the end of Trump and Johnson.

Of course it won’t, Boris will emerge as the hero at the end of this  

For Boris, this is the equivalent of the Falklands for Lady Thatcher.

I can see it now, his arms held high with the adulation of having defeated the virus, with the additional halo effect of holding a newborn baby on the doorstep of number 10. Bigger majority than last time at the next election, stuff of legends  

Was thinking, nah it is going to be so difficult to get a positive result but...

along comes Jezza to score one last own goal  before the final whistle.

 Corbyn, who stands down next month, also said he would not be self-isolating even though he’s over 70.

Would love him to stick around as long as possible but it’s not in labours interests, fingers crossed RLB is next in line to secure Boris’ legacy.....

[MintTrav]

Probably the only positive to this is that this utter shitshow should be the end of Trump and Johnson.

Of course it won’t, Boris will emerge as the hero at the end of this  

For Boris, this is the equivalent of the Falklands for Lady Thatcher.

I can see it now, his arms held high with the adulation of having defeated the virus, with the additional halo effect of holding a newborn baby on the doorstep of number 10. Bigger majority than last time at the next election, stuff of legends  

Was thinking, nah it is going to be so difficult to get a positive result but...

along comes Jezza to score one last own goal  before the final whistle.

 Corbyn, who stands down next month, also said he would not be self-isolating even though he’s over 70.

Would love him to stick around as long as possible but it’s not in labours interests, fingers crossed RLB is next in line to secure Boris’ legacy.....

It should be the end for.him, if the public ever comes to understand how badly the UK government screwed up.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/u-k-realized-its-coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html

[Woodsey]

Probably the only positive to this is that this utter shitshow should be the end of Trump and Johnson.

Of course it won’t, Boris will emerge as the hero at the end of this  

For Boris, this is the equivalent of the Falklands for Lady Thatcher.

I can see it now, his arms held high with the adulation of having defeated the virus, with the additional halo effect of holding a newborn baby on the doorstep of number 10. Bigger majority than last time at the next election, stuff of legends  

Was thinking, nah it is going to be so difficult to get a positive result but...

along comes Jezza to score one last own goal  before the final whistle.

 Corbyn, who stands down next month, also said he would not be self-isolating even though he’s over 70.

Would love him to stick around as long as possible but it’s not in labours interests, fingers crossed RLB is next in line to secure Boris’ legacy.....

It should be the end for.him, if the public ever comes to understand how badly the UK government screwed up.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/u-k-realized-its-coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html

I think you probably mean you want it to be the end for him as most tory haters do......in reality we’ll only know if their strategy has worked later in the year when  it’s all come out in the wash.

[Doobs]

Probably the only positive to this is that this utter shitshow should be the end of Trump and Johnson.

Of course it won’t, Boris will emerge as the hero at the end of this  

For Boris, this is the equivalent of the Falklands for Lady Thatcher.

I can see it now, his arms held high with the adulation of having defeated the virus, with the additional halo effect of holding a newborn baby on the doorstep of number 10. Bigger majority than last time at the next election, stuff of legends  

Was thinking, nah it is going to be so difficult to get a positive result but...

along comes Jezza to score one last own goal  before the final whistle.

 Corbyn, who stands down next month, also said he would not be self-isolating even though he’s over 70.

Would love him to stick around as long as possible but it’s not in labours interests, fingers crossed RLB is next in line to secure Boris’ legacy.....

It should be the end for.him, if the public ever comes to understand how badly the UK government screwed up.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/u-k-realized-its-coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html

I think you probably mean you want it to be the end for him as most tory haters do......in reality we’ll only know if their strategy has worked later in the year when  it’s all come out in the wash.

"strategy".  Is that the one from yesterday evening, yesterday lunch time or the day before?   

Suprised they are still odds on.   But voters have short memories and it is still a long way to the next election. 

You'd delay Brexit, wouldn't you?  If it was a rational decision, not a political one, anyway.   I am not talking forever, but 12 months or so til this is fixed, or blows over.   Though maybe it is too far progressed?  In that case, you'd delay what is difficult and absolutely doesn't need to happen.

[Woodsey]

Probably the only positive to this is that this utter shitshow should be the end of Trump and Johnson.

Of course it won’t, Boris will emerge as the hero at the end of this  

For Boris, this is the equivalent of the Falklands for Lady Thatcher.

I can see it now, his arms held high with the adulation of having defeated the virus, with the additional halo effect of holding a newborn baby on the doorstep of number 10. Bigger majority than last time at the next election, stuff of legends  

Was thinking, nah it is going to be so difficult to get a positive result but...

along comes Jezza to score one last own goal  before the final whistle.

 Corbyn, who stands down next month, also said he would not be self-isolating even though he’s over 70.

Would love him to stick around as long as possible but it’s not in labours interests, fingers crossed RLB is next in line to secure Boris’ legacy.....

It should be the end for.him, if the public ever comes to understand how badly the UK government screwed up.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/u-k-realized-its-coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html

I think you probably mean you want it to be the end for him as most tory haters do......in reality we’ll only know if their strategy has worked later in the year when  it’s all come out in the wash.

"strategy".  Is that the one from yesterday evening, yesterday lunch time or the day before?   

Suprised they are still odds on.   But voters have short memories and it is still a long way to the next election. 

You'd delay Brexit, wouldn't you?  If it was a rational decision, not a political one, anyway.   I am not talking forever, but 12 months or so til this is fixed, or blows over.   Though maybe it is too far progressed?  In that case, you'd delay what is difficult and absolutely doesn't need to happen.

The strategy will probably change a bit nearly every day as the situation changes, it’s no surprise to me anyway........I don’t expect any different from tory haters to have a whine up when it suits them.

[Jon MW]

Apparently we are only testing people who are already in hospital with respiratory problems. All others who suspect they might have it are told to self isolate.


If that's true there could be 10 of thousands of cases we don't know about.

The Government estimated 5-10000 last week and more by now

They are doubling every 2 or 3 days, though the Dom Cummings will have us believe it is every 5 or 6 days.  I suppose if you spend your working hours with Tory ministers you may start to belive everybody is an imbicile who can't use a spreadsheet.   I suppose we can pretend it is every 5 or 6 days if we don't test.

"...They are doubling every 2 or 3 days..." source? What spreadsheet?

89 UK cases on 5/3/2020*,
1543 as of today 16/3/2020

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

The reported cases have doubled four times in 11 days, which is pretty much doubling every 2 or 3 days.

I wrote a spreadsheet on the 6 March with some rough estimates based on Italian and French growth rates at the time.  I though we'd do better and that they would "only" increase 5 fold for the first couple of weeks.  The number of reported cases is spreading quicker than I assumed in my projections.

You can see a post I made on the 6 March here:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68630.msg2274225#msg2274225

I didn't assume 5 fold increases til June, I assumed it would reduce and would only be doubling each week from Mid April.

I haven't seen the Government projections, but they did say that they expected the bulk of cases over a 3 week period, and that would be consistent with what I did.  This is why they have to take such severe actions right now, the NHS could be overwhelmed by this time next month.   I assume their projections aren't getting released as they are genuinely scary. 

Have a nice evening.

* FWIW It was 13 the week before.

Seems sound but the reason the government will say 5 or 6 is because the statistical model they're working on assumes it will double every 5 days (and they just can't help themselves adding the 'or 6' to hedge).

It kind of highlights a big issue: Statistical models are not real life (and they are never meant to be).

The every 5 days assumption could be because that's what's expected over the longer term (it could be they just made the wrong assumption) - but anyway that's where the government gets it's figures from.

[Jon MW]

Probably the only positive to this is that this utter shitshow should be the end of Trump and Johnson.

Of course it won’t, Boris will emerge as the hero at the end of this  

For Boris, this is the equivalent of the Falklands for Lady Thatcher.

I can see it now, his arms held high with the adulation of having defeated the virus, with the additional halo effect of holding a newborn baby on the doorstep of number 10. Bigger majority than last time at the next election, stuff of legends  

Was thinking, nah it is going to be so difficult to get a positive result but...

along comes Jezza to score one last own goal  before the final whistle.

 Corbyn, who stands down next month, also said he would not be self-isolating even though he’s over 70.

Would love him to stick around as long as possible but it’s not in labours interests, fingers crossed RLB is next in line to secure Boris’ legacy.....

It should be the end for.him, if the public ever comes to understand how badly the UK government screwed up.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/u-k-realized-its-coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html

I think you probably mean you want it to be the end for him as most tory haters do......in reality we’ll only know if their strategy has worked later in the year when  it’s all come out in the wash.

"strategy".  Is that the one from yesterday evening, yesterday lunch time or the day before?   

Suprised they are still odds on.   But voters have short memories and it is still a long way to the next election. 

You'd delay Brexit, wouldn't you?  If it was a rational decision, not a political one, anyway.   I am not talking forever, but 12 months or so til this is fixed, or blows over.   Though maybe it is too far progressed?  In that case, you'd delay what is difficult and absolutely doesn't need to happen.

The strategy will probably change a bit nearly every day as the situation changes, it’s no surprise to me anyway........I don’t expect any different from tory haters to have a whine up when it suits them.

Speaking of which - the statistical model they're basing it on, which was published yesterday states in it that they had to change their assumptions in the last couple of days (and it was by quite a lot).

The reason why the government has changed tack is because their advice has changed.

[MintTrav]

Probably the only positive to this is that this utter shitshow should be the end of Trump and Johnson.

Of course it won’t, Boris will emerge as the hero at the end of this  

For Boris, this is the equivalent of the Falklands for Lady Thatcher.

I can see it now, his arms held high with the adulation of having defeated the virus, with the additional halo effect of holding a newborn baby on the doorstep of number 10. Bigger majority than last time at the next election, stuff of legends  

Was thinking, nah it is going to be so difficult to get a positive result but...

along comes Jezza to score one last own goal  before the final whistle.

 Corbyn, who stands down next month, also said he would not be self-isolating even though he’s over 70.

Would love him to stick around as long as possible but it’s not in labours interests, fingers crossed RLB is next in line to secure Boris’ legacy.....

It should be the end for.him, if the public ever comes to understand how badly the UK government screwed up.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/u-k-realized-its-coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html

I think you probably mean you want it to be the end for him as most tory haters do......in reality we’ll only know if their strategy has worked later in the year when  it’s all come out in the wash.

"strategy".  Is that the one from yesterday evening, yesterday lunch time or the day before?   

Suprised they are still odds on.   But voters have short memories and it is still a long way to the next election. 

You'd delay Brexit, wouldn't you?  If it was a rational decision, not a political one, anyway.   I am not talking forever, but 12 months or so til this is fixed, or blows over.   Though maybe it is too far progressed?  In that case, you'd delay what is difficult and absolutely doesn't need to happen.

The strategy will probably change a bit nearly every day as the situation changes, it’s no surprise to me anyway........I don’t expect any different from tory haters to have a whine up when it suits them.

Speaking of which - the statistical model they're basing it on, which was published yesterday states in it that they had to change their assumptions in the last couple of days (and it was by quite a lot).

The reason why the government has changed tack is because their advice has changed.

When you're doing something differently to everyone else, it could be that they are right. The 'herd immunity' strategy is bonkers. It works by vaccinating children, not by allowing a population to catch something, especially something as dangerous as this. If they don't really know what they're doing, it would have been a lot safer to do the same as everywhere else instead of gambling with people's lives. We have lost a week, but now they are toeing the line to some extent, though they still haven't closed the schools.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

[Jon MW]

...

When you're doing something differently to everyone else, it could be that they are right. The 'herd immunity' strategy is bonkers. It works by vaccinating children, not by allowing a population to catch something, especially something as dangerous as this. If they don't really know what they're doing, it would have been a lot safer to do the same as everywhere else instead of gambling with people's lives. We have lost a week, but now they are toeing the line to some extent, though they still haven't closed the schools.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

It was never a herd immunity strategy. That article the person quotes "The stated aim has been to achieve “herd immunity” in order to manage the outbreak" - that wasn't the stated aim, that was mentioned as an effect of the strategy.

The analysis is on this page https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
report 9

They were looking at the mitigation strategy as used successfully for 4 pandemics previously (most recently 2009) - rather than the suppression strategy.

Neither of these is a 'herd immunity' strategy.

That's not to say that the gist of that article is wrong or the gist of your post is wrong - but language matters and makes a difference.

NB: some epidemiologists classify herd immunity as 'only' what happens from vaccination - others take it to mean the proportion of the population not susceptible. Even definitions vary, let alone their idea of the right strategy.

[kukushkin88]

It’s a little surprising this is dividing down political lines but since it has....

I think a good way to try and understand how slow and pathetic our governments response is, is to think what countries like Italy would do if they could wind back the clock and act decisively two weeks earlier. We have very few respirators relative to equivalent European nations *. How did we think we would be different? Catastrophic for Boris to come up against an enemy that can’t be influenced by his bullshit and rhetoric laden clown act. Certainly seems likely we’ll top the death totals at some stage.

* https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8/figures/1

A good time to revisit the excellent article Doobs linked:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

When I was in for my kidney surgery at the beginning of December, there were already onco-urology wards so over stretched that the patients who’d been there the longest were looking after the newer patients, as well as having to provide guidance to agency nursing staff, it’s nearly impossible to overstate how badly this will go for the U.K and it’s decimated health service.

[nirvana]

It’s a little surprising this is dividing down political lines but since it has....

I think a good way to try and understand how slow and pathetic our governments response is, is to think what countries like Italy would do if they could wind back the clock and act decisively two weeks earlier. We have very few respirators relative to equivalent European nations *. How did we think we would be different? Catastrophic for Boris to come up against an enemy that can’t be influenced by his bullshit and rhetoric laden clown act. Certainly seems likely we’ll top the death totals at some stage.

* https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8/figures/1

A good time to revisit the excellent article Doobs linked:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

When I was in for my kidney surgery at the beginning of December, there were already onco-urology wards so over stretched that the patients who’d been there the longest were looking after the newer patients, as well as having to provide guidance to agency nursing staff, it’s nearly impossible to overstate how badly this will go for the U.K and it’s decimated health service.

Tbf. You literally know nothing but are talking as though you are an authority. It's just so pointless

[RED-DOG]

Businesses who are insured against being unable to trade still can't claim even if forced to close by the Government unless they have specific cover against pandemic say insurers.

[Woodsey]

It’s a little surprising this is dividing down political lines but since it has....

I think a good way to try and understand how slow and pathetic our governments response is, is to think what countries like Italy would do if they could wind back the clock and act decisively two weeks earlier. We have very few respirators relative to equivalent European nations *. How did we think we would be different? Catastrophic for Boris to come up against an enemy that can’t be influenced by his bullshit and rhetoric laden clown act. Certainly seems likely we’ll top the death totals at some stage.

* https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8/figures/1

A good time to revisit the excellent article Doobs linked:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

When I was in for my kidney surgery at the beginning of December, there were already onco-urology wards so over stretched that the patients who’d been there the longest were looking after the newer patients, as well as having to provide guidance to agency nursing staff, it’s nearly impossible to overstate how badly this will go for the U.K and it’s decimated health service.

Tbf. You literally know nothing but are talking as though you are an authority. It's just so pointless

Completely true, the thing is we won’t know until we’ve got through this whether we did the right thing or not so opinions from the lay public is literally a waste of hot air. I can tell you from working with doctors for over 25 years that is it is completely standard for even top experts in their fields to have different opinions on certain issues and that’s what you are seeing here, so people posting links with certain views and presenting them as gold standard is once again a waste of time really, even if it is an interesting read as other experts will often disagree with them. I go back to we won’t know if the right thing was done until it’s done and dusted, and even if they did a decent job you can be sure they will find things they could do even better in future.

[Jon MW]

...

The analysis is on this page https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
report 9
...

It might be report 8 not 9 but the reports don't seem to download the right report from the right link :s

But there are other links direct to the pdf around