COVID19

[jakally]

Quick basic question...

Infection numbers staying static is good isn't it if the number of tests being done each day is increasing?

Don't seem to have seen this somewhat obvious point mentioned any where in the news, or have I got it wrong?

It definitely is a good sign. The slight qualifier on it is that as the % of tests on key workers goes up as a proportion of total tests, we’d expect a lower positivity rate. Even once this is accounted for, things are trending in the right direction.

Why would key workers affect the positive test rate?

The previous testing was limited to those who were hospitalised displaying Covid symptoms, this group would be the people optimally likely to return a + result. Key workers would be (by an amount that’s hard to quantity) less likely to return a positive result. The criteria for them to be tested are quite wide and don’t involve them needing to be displaying Covid symptoms.

I guess my explanation also needs the qualifier that when I say ‘positivity rate’, I mean a percentage.

As far as I understand the qualifying criteria is if the essential worker is showing symptoms, or a member of their household is.
You are right, it should have an impact, but probably not significantly greater than increasing tests to 100,000 per day using an alternative criteria for selection.

[neeko]

What is the governments strategy?

Get cases to zero in the UK or
Keep cases lowish until a vaccine arrives

[Doobs]

What is the governments strategy?

Get cases to zero in the UK or
Keep cases lowish until a vaccine arrives

It would be good to know, but given the chatter I think you can rule out the former.  I assume it is to keep cases low and manageable.

Some collective madness happening in many states of the US.  Some States are clearly reopening before they have peaked (or closed in some cases).   It should provide interesting evidence for the rest of us.

[neeko]

What is the governments strategy?

Get cases to zero in the UK or
Keep cases lowish until a vaccine arrives

It would be good to know, but given the chatter I think you can rule out the former.  I assume it is to keep cases low and manageable.

Some collective madness happening in many states of the US.  Some States are clearly reopening before they have peaked (or closed in some cases).   It should provide interesting evidence for the rest of us.

The govt may accidentally hit the right strategy, keep lock down till end of May, watch the US / Germany / Italy, if cases don’t explode there open and claim it was the plan, if they go wrong and they go back into lockdown, then keep the lockdown in place and say see we knew what we are doing.

[StuartHopkin]

Gowns and masks approved by the cabinet office.
Been told we should start commercial discussions today.

One NHS deal fell through as they want 3M KN95 branded masks only at this stage. My agent in China assures me these are not available as the Chinese and US Government have locked up all the 3M factories capacity.

Not sure if either statement is 100% accurate but it would be annoying to think they are passing up comparable CE marked masks waiting for something they cannot get.

[Woodsey]

Gowns and masks approved by the cabinet office.
Been told we should start commercial discussions today.

One NHS deal fell through as they want 3M KN95 branded masks only at this stage. My agent in China assures me these are not available as the Chinese and US Government have locked up all the 3M factories capacity.

Not sure if either statement is 100% accurate but it would be annoying to think they are passing up comparable CE marked masks waiting for something they cannot get.

Doesn’t surprise me at all from my dealings with them over 25 years, NHS procurement is very bureaucratic and they will probably have certain minimum standards and processes they have to adhere to. To the untrained eye some things that seem comparable are not always comparable, we’ve had it with various drugs over the years, it’s worked for and against us.

Maybe your agents cut just isn’t big enough for the masks for him to be arsed?   

[kukushkin88]

What do we think the excess 6,614 probably died of?

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1255081802340929536?s=21

Interesting briefing coming later today. Let’s try and make an objective assessment of whether they are trying to play down the number of people killed directly by Covid.

[Woodsey]

What do we think the excess 6,614 probably died of?

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1255081802340929536?s=21

Interesting briefing coming later today. Let’s try and make an objective assessment of whether they are trying to play down the number of people killed directly by Covid.

Stress caused by moaning on the Internet?

[Jon MW]

What do we think the excess 6,614 probably died of?

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1255081802340929536?s=21

Interesting briefing coming later today. Let’s try and make an objective assessment of whether they are trying to play down the number of people killed directly by Covid.

Isn't excess deaths already covered by official figures? There's just not a huge amount of data to go on up til now and it's not internationally comparable.

What difference does it make where they died?

Apart from that in care homes it could be down to care home managers not sending residents to hospitals when they should do rather than individuals deciding it for themselves(?)

EDIT: in case I wasn't being clear. I kind of assumed the vast majority of excess deaths occurred in care homes, therefore I don't see it as being a particularly separate issue.

[arbboy]

How all these extra deaths are recorded really doesn't matter.  All other things being equal in comparison to previous years (which they are) all deaths above the normal average for each week/month are directly or indirectly related to COVID.

[kukushkin88]

What do we think the excess 6,614 probably died of?

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1255081802340929536?s=21

Interesting briefing coming later today. Let’s try and make an objective assessment of whether they are trying to play down the number of people killed directly by Covid.

Isn't excess deaths already covered by official figures? There's just not a huge amount of data to go on up til now and it's not internationally comparable.

What difference does it make where they died?

Apart from that in care homes it could be down to care home managers not sending residents to hospitals when they should do rather than individuals deciding it for themselves(?)

EDIT: in case I wasn't being clear. I kind of assumed the vast majority of excess deaths occurred in care homes, therefore I don't see it as being a particularly separate issue.

It’s not a separate issue, it’s the same issue and of minimal interest to anyone with a serious interest in this problem, although it should always be mentioned whenever hospital capacity is mentioned, that huge numbers have died without hospital care. The government PR machine presenting this as a great success is just disappointing. Watch the briefing tonight and see if you think they are clear in terms of the enormous numbers of people who have died outside of hospital.

[Jon MW]

...
It’s not a separate issue, it’s the same issue and of minimal interest to anyone with a serious interest in this problem, although it should always be mentioned whenever hospital capacity is mentioned, that huge numbers have died without hospital care. The government PR machine presenting this as a great success is just disappointing. Watch the briefing tonight and see if you think they are clear in terms of the enormous numbers of people who have died outside of hospital.

How all these extra deaths are recorded really doesn't matter.  All other things being equal in comparison to previous years (which they are) all deaths above the normal average for each week/month are directly or indirectly related to COVID.

This is why how it is recorded matters.

The media in particular want analysis to decide who is to blame, but anybody serious wants to analyse the outbreak to see what could be done better next time.

The initial worry was hospitals being over run. The Imperial modelling was all about ICU capacity. We had stories about Italian doctors having to choose who got treated because not everyone could.

If 2% of excess deaths were caused indirectly by the virus then it suggests a future fix might concentrate on how to get more community infections treated, if 20% of excess deaths were caused indirectly then there might be more concentrated on how people without the infection are treated.

[nirvana]

What do we think the excess 6,614 probably died of?

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1255081802340929536?s=21

Interesting briefing coming later today. Let’s try and make an objective assessment of whether they are trying to play down the number of people killed directly by Covid.

Isn't excess deaths already covered by official figures? There's just not a huge amount of data to go on up til now and it's not internationally comparable.

What difference does it make where they died?

Apart from that in care homes it could be down to care home managers not sending residents to hospitals when they should do rather than individuals deciding it for themselves(?)

EDIT: in case I wasn't being clear. I kind of assumed the vast majority of excess deaths occurred in care homes, therefore I don't see it as being a particularly separate issue.

It’s not a separate issue, it’s the same issue and of minimal interest to anyone with a serious interest in this problem, although it should always be mentioned whenever hospital capacity is mentioned, that huge numbers have died without hospital care. The government PR machine presenting this as a great success is just disappointing. Watch the briefing tonight and see if you think they are clear in terms of the enormous numbers of people who have died outside of hospital.

The ONS stats are comprehensive and transparent. Plenty of people drawing attention to them including the govt every single day at the press conference. Now there's a few weeks of data on these deaths outside hospital I'm sure Government will start speaking more about it. There's no choice.

Hopefully all the people trying hard to establish there is a conspiracy of silence will be able to tell themselves they forced the government to speak about it. Should make a massive and meaningful difference in the long run.

[kukushkin88]

...
It’s not a separate issue, it’s the same issue and of minimal interest to anyone with a serious interest in this problem, although it should always be mentioned whenever hospital capacity is mentioned, that huge numbers have died without hospital care. The government PR machine presenting this as a great success is just disappointing. Watch the briefing tonight and see if you think they are clear in terms of the enormous numbers of people who have died outside of hospital.

How all these extra deaths are recorded really doesn't matter.  All other things being equal in comparison to previous years (which they are) all deaths above the normal average for each week/month are directly or indirectly related to COVID.

This is why how it is recorded matters.

The media in particular want analysis to decide who is to blame, but anybody serious wants to analyse the outbreak to see what could be done better next time.

The initial worry was hospitals being over run. The Imperial modelling was all about ICU capacity. We had stories about Italian doctors having to choose who got treated because not everyone could.

If 2% of excess deaths were caused indirectly by the virus then it suggests a future fix might concentrate on how to get more community infections treated, if 20% of excess deaths were caused indirectly then there might be more concentrated on how people without the infection are treated.

I think it’s clear that we made the same decisions about who does and doesn’t get treatment, we just made them outside of hospital (which might be the best of the available options).

In terms of the Imperial model, it would be interesting to know what they think they misjudged to be so wrong on worst case deaths in the first phase of infection and ICU requirement in the same period.

[kukushkin88]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hr3y/panorama-has-the-government-failed-the-nhs