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Doobs
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« Reply #2070 on: May 09, 2020, 10:21:51 PM »

UK to repair stable door, still no sign of horse.

UK 'to bring in 14-day quarantine for air passengers' https://bbc.in/3fvGKq4

It might seem intuitive in one way but if an epidemic is spreading faster in your country than in other countries then there really isn't any point in stopping people as they arrive.

Everyone arriving is either arriving from a higher risk area - in which case they already have to self isolate.
Or they are arriving from an area which is the same or less risk - in which case you could tell them to self isolate for 14 days and that might stop a few people catching the virus. But if they are not coming from higher risk areas then anybody who has not flown in has got just as much (or higher) chance of catching the virus from going to the supermarket of if they have to travel to work.

i.e. why would you want to quarantine new air travellers for 14 days and not want to do the same to anyone who has been out and about domestically? The benefit from quaranting the incoming traveller is no higher than just picking the supermarket shoppers or anyone who has had to go to work.

I don't think the quarantine (more accurately self isolation) measures are really for the current stage of the epidemic. They are for the next stage of the epidemic when we have got a lower rate of transmission than some of those arriving.

All past  research on epidemics has shown that any kind of travel restrictions and airport control have very little effect on being able to stop an epidemic entering the country so it's not worth them going overboard on it whatever they're planning.

I don't see much point either.   We are in worse shape than most of the countries the visitors are coming from.  Maybe it is all political games, as we can pretend foreigners are the enemy and that we are doing better than them at containing the virus.  A well targetted approach may make more sense where we just target those countries that are clearly doing worse in the future?   Maybe it is all speculative nonsense? 
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« Reply #2071 on: May 10, 2020, 09:28:05 AM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

In theory Nirvana is right but the sad reality is what Mark says.

I had the joy of having to visit a large Tesco yesterday. All was set up to stay safe. Queued to get in, trolley was sprayed down before I used it, clear one way system with arrows in the store, signs up saying maintain 2 metre distance, screens up at check outs etc. Should be relatively safe.

In reality, I would say half the people completely ignored the two metre rule, the one way system was ignored. I was constantly stepping back to avoid idiots. I  reckon I would have come into close contact (within half a metre) of at least ten people unless I had stepped away/back. These people didn’t give a fuck.

The ignorance of large numbers of people is genuinely staggering.
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« Reply #2072 on: May 10, 2020, 09:32:40 AM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

In theory Nirvana is right but the sad reality is what Mark says.

I had the joy of having to visit a large Tesco yesterday. All was set up to stay safe. Queued to get in, trolley was sprayed down before I used it, clear one way system with arrows in the store, signs up saying maintain 2 metre distance, screens up at check outs etc. Should be relatively safe.

In reality, I would say half the people completely ignored the two metre rule, the one way system was ignored. I was constantly stepping back to avoid idiots. I  reckon I would have come into close contact (within half a metre) of at least ten people unless I had stepped away/back. These people didn’t give a fuck.

There ignorance of large numbers of people is genuinely staggering.

My experience of supermarket shopping is very different. People are queuing tidily and mostly following the guidance inside.

btw, walking past someone who isn’t coughing and sneezing is a very minimal level of risk. If it is a risk arak,s
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« Reply #2073 on: May 10, 2020, 09:38:19 AM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #2074 on: May 10, 2020, 09:47:31 AM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.
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« Reply #2075 on: May 10, 2020, 10:22:29 AM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?
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« Reply #2076 on: May 10, 2020, 10:48:51 AM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?

This is at the heart of it - this might be a situation where Government is forced to re-consider the general level of benefits for people who have recently lost their jobs, our  system is much harsher than many with no real cushioning built into the system at all.
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« Reply #2077 on: May 10, 2020, 11:45:20 AM »

UK to repair stable door, still no sign of horse.

UK 'to bring in 14-day quarantine for air passengers' https://bbc.in/3fvGKq4

It might seem intuitive in one way but if an epidemic is spreading faster in your country than in other countries then there really isn't any point in stopping people as they arrive.

Everyone arriving is either arriving from a higher risk area - in which case they already have to self isolate.
Or they are arriving from an area which is the same or less risk - in which case you could tell them to self isolate for 14 days and that might stop a few people catching the virus. But if they are not coming from higher risk areas then anybody who has not flown in has got just as much (or higher) chance of catching the virus from going to the supermarket of if they have to travel to work.

i.e. why would you want to quarantine new air travellers for 14 days and not want to do the same to anyone who has been out and about domestically? The benefit from quaranting the incoming traveller is no higher than just picking the supermarket shoppers or anyone who has had to go to work.

I don't think the quarantine (more accurately self isolation) measures are really for the current stage of the epidemic. They are for the next stage of the epidemic when we have got a lower rate of transmission than some of those arriving.

All past  research on epidemics has shown that any kind of travel restrictions and airport control have very little effect on being able to stop an epidemic entering the country so it's not worth them going overboard on it whatever they're planning.

This.

The govt is going to go through all the policy options, it will have used all of them, but started and ended them all at the wrong time.
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« Reply #2078 on: May 10, 2020, 12:01:18 PM »

https://twitter.com/edwardmalnick/status/1259219157754806273

“Stay Alert?”

I really hope that this is fake news, but I don’t think it is. Just for starters, I think there’s a significant number of people who won’t even know what alert means - certainly not in the context of social distancing (I’m not sure that I do, lol).

People are already assuming that the restrictions will be reduced this evening, and a watering down of the key message (stay home) is not what we need if the Government are hoping to keep Covid under any kind of control. Aren’t they paying any attention to recent events in South Korea (trying to track & trace c.1500 people we came into contact with an infected man who went out bar/club hopping) and Germany (infection rate now viewed as >1.0)?

I’ve been sympathetic to the Government’s position & messaging so far, but this seems like a big misjudgment.
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« Reply #2079 on: May 10, 2020, 12:16:59 PM »

My problem with the 2m rule is that it is probably not enough,although in Germany the distance is 1.5m - I guess either their virus or their science is different.

I think of it this way, if you are in a supermarket, and someone farts, how long is it until that smell dissipates? 10secs  30s   3mins? Viruses are MUCH smaller so will last in the air longer, so unless the social distancing is such that  the gap between people is enough that the virus falls to the ground or is diluted by air conditioning then the whole 2m thing is pointless.

It would be interesting to know if the 2m rule was something that was decided as a rule for flu pandemic planning or if it is evidence based on CV19.

Too many things seem to have been copy and pasted from a flu planning exercise rather than the new virus that exists.
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« Reply #2080 on: May 10, 2020, 12:31:32 PM »

tbf, this consigns the vulnerable and just scared (for want of a better word) to an undefined period of doing nothing much until vaccines etc but I think that's better than what I view as a ludicrous situation today where most people could pretty safely keep calm and carry on.

Think the problem is that most people are borderline idiots, otherwise I'd agree.

I could do another year of this, so it doesn't bother me one bit, other than not enough takeaways about.

Think there's loads of people like you Marky.and pretty sure for a reasonable number of people it's almost ideal. Aside from seeing my family and the odd visit to a restaurant or pub it's pretty perfectly suited to me too.

But it's killing the jobs of so many otherwise fit and self employed trades people as well as in other decent mid size companies I'm not sure the ends, today, justify the means. Someone has to work to pay for all the public sector jobs and delish pensions.

It definitely gets to a point where we have to take our medicine, and given that the gov said they're going to be trying to wean people off the furlough dough and get them back to work, I can't see it's long from coming.

My brother had a couple weeks off, but I reckon a fair few self-employed are already back to work. He is only working on jobs he doesn't have to deal with any customers, and using his regular labourer, a Portuguese lad that is sensible and does what he's told.


Not sure why Govt needs to "wean people off furlough".  Just announce a date for the end of the scheme.

If there isn't some kind of weaning to match the gradual build up of people actually returning to work there is going to be huge numbers of redundancies, many of which will be aligned so the furlough scheme is paying peoples notice.

They need to taper it down over the coming months gradually and introduce part time furloughing.

Seems artificial to me. Why do we now think benefits should effectively be 80% of salary?   If all these people are getting made redundant, then that is what the benefits system is for?   I don't see why Bob gets paid 80% salary when he is in reality out of work the minute furlough ends, while Dave gets his JSA just because he was unlucky enough to be out of work before COVID?

If your happy that 2m people are going to become redundant due to the virus rather than their work or their employers decisions and then let them struggle to find any kind of similar role then there's absolutely no reason to mess around weaning!

Sure, some of them should be going anyway and there will have been some good luck/bad luck situations around timing.

Personally I think softening this blow is probably a good plan.

60% July with introduction of part time furlough
40% August
Finished 31st August

Is better than just cutting it dead on the 30th June

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« Reply #2081 on: May 10, 2020, 12:32:44 PM »

Desperate news that relegation-threatened Brighton and Dynamo Dresden (bottom of Bundesliga 2) have both experienced sudden Covid outbreaks.

Comedy scenes.
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« Reply #2082 on: May 10, 2020, 12:45:06 PM »

What happens for furloughing in hospitality and other sectors that will remain closed down past the Summer?
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« Reply #2083 on: May 10, 2020, 01:29:22 PM »

What happens for furloughing in hospitality and other sectors that will remain closed down past the Summer?

Good question

Currently nothing, but I assume they are going to do something if they don't allow pubs to open until September.

Still hoping they go bat shot crazy and allow table service in beer gardens from midnight.
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« Reply #2084 on: May 10, 2020, 02:04:30 PM »

My problem with the 2m rule is that it is probably not enough,although in Germany the distance is 1.5m - I guess either their virus or their science is different.

I think of it this way, if you are in a supermarket, and someone farts, how long is it until that smell dissipates? 10secs  30s   3mins? Viruses are MUCH smaller so will last in the air longer, so unless the social distancing is such that  the gap between people is enough that the virus falls to the ground or is diluted by air conditioning then the whole 2m thing is pointless.

It would be interesting to know if the 2m rule was something that was decided as a rule for flu pandemic planning or if it is evidence based on CV19.

Too many things seem to have been copy and pasted from a flu planning exercise rather than the new virus that exists.


Well said.

I actually used farting to test our social distancing rules.

According to my daughters, even 5 metres wasn't enough seperation, and that was outdoors.
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