COVID19

[Jon MW]

...

It is just a series of big distortions.  I watched another couple of minutes and he went on to the 300 million people visited a pub in the UK, which relied on assumptions of 1,000 people a pub and a population of over 300 million. ...

To give extra context for that (because I happen to have recently seen the figure) - in surveys in 'normal' years about 40 to 50% of the population say they went to the pub in the previous week.

(I don't know how accurate it would be to extrapolate those surveys - but it gives an idea)

[EvilPie]

Good luck with your battle.  

It is just a series of big distortions.  I watched another couple of minutes and he went on to the 300 million people visited a pub in the UK, which relied on assumptions of 1,000 people a pub and a population of over 300 million.  Seems the requirements to be a professor of evidence based medicine at one of the top 2 Universities aren't as stringent as you'd think.   FWIW the cases started ticking up as soon as the pubs reopened.   I think that was just about the worst decision, but there is a big difference between drinking with a couple of mates in a beer garden than visiting a 1,000 people barn of a pub to watch football.   

We have done the pre-existings before, but they include overweight, high blood pressure etc.  I don't have figures but wouldn't be surprised if more than half over 50s have a pre-existing condition.   When you get to 70, it is just going to be nearly all?  Most deaths are always going to have pre-existing conditions due to the age distribution of deaths. There was something that I posted a few months ago which estimated that people were losing 5 or so years on average, because even hypertensive diabetics can live for several years in normal times.

Nobody is saying don't go to doctors, or into hospitals if you think you have cancer.  Some extra people will die of cancer because of this, but it is people making bad choices and not usually hospitals. I read the other day that there had been 3,000 or so less potential heart attack visits during the 2 months Covid was at its peak. I'd be very surprised if they were the 3,000 most severe, and I doubt many were turned away.    If you think you are having a heart attack or stroke etc just go to hospital.   There is a very small risk you could get Covid, but there is a much larger risk you are going to die of your heart attack/stroke.   Maybe this should be more emphasised?  I'd say communications from Government have been pretty terrible throughout.  

Anyway get well soon, make sure you see someone medical if you deteriorate.

Is being overweight classed as a pre-existing condition? If it is then about 2/3 of every single death in the country whether covid or not has a pre-existing condition.

If we have to hit obesity then I think it's more like 1/3

[RickBFA]

Thank you for the thoughts.

I really can’t complain.

Perversely I had none of the classic symptoms just what I thought was a cold (thick head and runny nose, no real cough, no temperature and no loss of taste/smell).

My wife suddenly lost her taste/smell and dragged us to a walk in test centre. Given how many colds are around, if I’m honest I wouldn’t have got tested.

I’ve felt very tired since, still got cold symptoms but developed a bit of a chesty cough and loss of taste in last 48 hours. Nothing that feels overly concerning yet. Fingers crossed.

Worse thing is being cold or letting the dog out on the back garden and getting a blast of cold air. Otherwise keeping warm and having hot drinks taking paracetamol or the odd lemsip to clear my head.

I’m 54, wife 44 and daughter 14. Effects and recovery for us do seem to tally with younger people recovering more quickly with less symptoms.

Isolation until Saturday. Had a message from NHS saying after then we can go out even if you still have a cough.

[Doobs]

Good luck with your battle.  

It is just a series of big distortions.  I watched another couple of minutes and he went on to the 300 million people visited a pub in the UK, which relied on assumptions of 1,000 people a pub and a population of over 300 million.  Seems the requirements to be a professor of evidence based medicine at one of the top 2 Universities aren't as stringent as you'd think.   FWIW the cases started ticking up as soon as the pubs reopened.   I think that was just about the worst decision, but there is a big difference between drinking with a couple of mates in a beer garden than visiting a 1,000 people barn of a pub to watch football.   

We have done the pre-existings before, but they include overweight, high blood pressure etc.  I don't have figures but wouldn't be surprised if more than half over 50s have a pre-existing condition.   When you get to 70, it is just going to be nearly all?  Most deaths are always going to have pre-existing conditions due to the age distribution of deaths. There was something that I posted a few months ago which estimated that people were losing 5 or so years on average, because even hypertensive diabetics can live for several years in normal times.

Nobody is saying don't go to doctors, or into hospitals if you think you have cancer.  Some extra people will die of cancer because of this, but it is people making bad choices and not usually hospitals. I read the other day that there had been 3,000 or so less potential heart attack visits during the 2 months Covid was at its peak. I'd be very surprised if they were the 3,000 most severe, and I doubt many were turned away.    If you think you are having a heart attack or stroke etc just go to hospital.   There is a very small risk you could get Covid, but there is a much larger risk you are going to die of your heart attack/stroke.   Maybe this should be more emphasised?  I'd say communications from Government have been pretty terrible throughout.  

Anyway get well soon, make sure you see someone medical if you deteriorate.

Is being overweight classed as a pre-existing condition? If it is then about 2/3 of every single death in the country whether covid or not has a pre-existing condition.

If we have to hit obesity then I think it's more like 1/3

I think it is usually obesity, but have seen overweight mentioned too.

I am overweight, but not obese, but get there elsewhere.  I haven't got the study to hand, but pretty sure the actuaries Covid response team did an analysis of pre-existing conditions too.   I'll try and find it if I have time later.  Pre-existing conditions do increase Covid mortality, that has been shown, but saying that barely anyone has no pre-existing conditions is mostly a reflecfion of the proportion of pre-existing conditions in the age groups that are dying.  

I think it was something like 93% had pre existing conditions last time I looked, but if you look at the general population in those age groups it seems likely you are looking at 80% plus.  My Dad could have completed a bingo card of conditions when he died in his late 70s.

I will try and get some numbers to back this up anyway.

[Doobs]

...

It is just a series of big distortions.  I watched another couple of minutes and he went on to the 300 million people visited a pub in the UK, which relied on assumptions of 1,000 people a pub and a population of over 300 million. ...

To give extra context for that (because I happen to have recently seen the figure) - in surveys in 'normal' years about 40 to 50% of the population say they went to the pub in the previous week.

(I don't know how accurate it would be to extrapolate those surveys - but it gives an idea)

Thanks.  That is useful.

I assume you can half that because a lot of people aren't going to the pub right now, either because they are deliberately avoiding them or just because they aren't going out to work.  If you limit it to those who sat inside a pub rather than outside, so you can probably go lower still.  It is still a lot of people but maybe nearer 10m a week rather than 300m.  It is still a lot of interactions, but given Covid was very low in the general population a month or two ago, it is no surprise that there wasn't an immediate big surge.  Even at its worst point Covid cases were only doubling every 3 days.

[StuartHopkin]

I can't find the actual PHE report but Telegraph and Daily Mail are reporting that only 3% of all outbreaks were traced to Pubs/Restaurants to w/e 20th September.

Unbelievable scenes that the bars and restaurants inside parliament do not have to abide by the new rules!

For what its worth I followed Boris's rules on Saturday, even downloaded the app, table service was so efficient and we didn't dare try to change venue's as people were constantly being turned away as there were no tables available.

I would comment on the 10pm crowds but unfortunately my memory is a little hazy!

[Doobs]

Here are the covid actuaries response group papers

https://www.covid-arg.com/bulletins

The one investigating if Covid patients are really on death row is dated 7 April.

It refers to this.


https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england/2018

Amongst the interesting stuff are the following

43% of adults over 16 have a long-standing medical condition.

Roughly 17.5% of over 16s have asthma.
26% of men (29% of women) are chronically obese.
About 10% are diabetic.

These are over 16s, so are going to be worse for over 50s



 

[Doobs]

I can't find the actual PHE report but Telegraph and Daily Mail are reporting that only 3% of all outbreaks were traced to Pubs/Restaurants to w/e 20th September.

Unbelievable scenes that the bars and restaurants inside parliament do not have to abide by the new rules!

For what its worth I followed Boris's rules on Saturday, even downloaded the app, table service was so efficient and we didn't dare try to change venue's as people were constantly being turned away as there were no tables available.

I would comment on the 10pm crowds but unfortunately my memory is a little hazy!

I just saw that earlier on the bars/restaurants, but think it is likely skewed because it is easier to trace family/friends than people who were in the same pub?  I guess that us going to change if lots download and use the app., as the system of leaving it to bars/restaurants was very hit and miss from what I saw.

It seems like a massive own goal to set a different rule for parliament bars.   Did they not learn anything from Cummings and his eye test?  What price it remains an exemption by the end of the week?    Bewildering.

[Marky147]

They already backtracked on that first thing this morning, and all bars have to follow the rules.

Absolutely braindead that they even thought about having a go with that, though 

[Marky147]

Get well soon Rick

+1

Hope you're on the mend soon, mate.

[Marky147]

This is a very good read on vaccines that are in development and how they work (posted over on 2p2)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1310372301314101250.html

Really well broken down, so even dummies like me can understand some of it

[StuartHopkin]

Had to get our new addition admitted to hospital last night, bit grim, but swab taken 22.30 last night and a negative result just came through. Pretty good turn around.

Can't quite work out why they didn't need to test me as I was staying with him.

[Doobs]

Hope it works out well for the little one Stuart.  My youngest had bronchiolitis and had issues with her breathing when young.  Don't know how many nights I spent in her room with her alarming breathing.  Guess a lot of similar things look like Covid now?

[StuartHopkin]

Hope it works out well for the little one Stuart.  My youngest had bronchiolitis and had issues with her breathing when young.  Don't know how many nights I spent in her room with her alarming breathing.  Guess a lot of similar things look like Covid now?

He seems okay. Nothing appeared covid related his ear was just swollen. Think they were testing anyone admitted to a ward.

Didnt realise it was so serious when I set off for the walkin centre. Apparently it is early mastoiditis which can be bad if they don't sort it so he is in till its gone.

Cant fault the service at all, seen by at least 10 different people and all of them were excellent.

[Doobs]

Hope it works out well for the little one Stuart.  My youngest had bronchiolitis and had issues with her breathing when young.  Don't know how many nights I spent in her room with her alarming breathing.  Guess a lot of similar things look like Covid now?

He seems okay. Nothing appeared covid related his ear was just swollen. Think they were testing anyone admitted to a ward.

Didnt realise it was so serious when I set off for the walkin centre. Apparently it is early mastoiditis which can be bad if they don't sort it so he is in till its gone.

Cant fault the service at all, seen by at least 10 different people and all of them were excellent.

My daughter was only in for one night, but she suffered on and off for months.   

I am surprised they didn't test you too.  Guess they just forgot?