COVID19

[Marky147]

Now you have to isolate if you've been to France, even if you're vaccinated 

Who the fuck are the clowns in charge of this?

Wouldn't surprise me if it was Boris and Shapps actually making the decisions.

Think they just do it to piss Ivor off now

Well, they're pissing just about everyone off, it would seem.

Isn't 'beta', the SA variant? Been around ages and the vaccines work against it?

Madness.

[Doobs]

Now you have to isolate if you've been to France, even if you're vaccinated 

Who the fuck are the clowns in charge of this?

Wouldn't surprise me if it was Boris and Shapps actually making the decisions.

Think they just do it to piss Ivor off now

Well, they're pissing just about everyone off, it would seem.

Isn't 'beta', the SA variant? Been around ages and the vaccines work against it?

Madness.

As far as I know on Beta; I am playing poker, but can't say that anything obvious leaps out for why we have done it.  They did nothing at all to stop Delta, and now make a song and dance over something that has been outcompeted.  Almost like they are flipping coins, Dice Man style, to decide what to do next at every step. 

[Marky147]

Saw it mooted that they had to go 'Amber +', because they haven't got the hotel rooms to accomodate all the people that would need it.

[RED-DOG]

Does anyone know what time the pandemic ends on Monday?

[StuartHopkin]

Does anyone know what time the pandemic ends on Monday?

0.01 according to Rock City, in Nottingham 

[Marky147]

This is interesting stuff about how they make vaccines from the 29m point, and goes on for several mins.

The whole talk was a good listen, to be fair.

[Marky147]

Not had a chance to read it yet, but James Ward has put a thread up going over his and everyone else's modelling

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1417176537611358215

[Doobs]

Not had a chance to read it yet, but James Ward has put a thread up going over his and everyone else's modelling

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1417176537611358215

James Ward still very good.  There is going to be an awful lot of uncertainty for a while as it is unclear what the susceptible population is. 

I saw this the other day

I don't know how people can still claim 18 months down the road that it is lockdowns that result in delayed operations and not Covid.  It just seems absolutely mad that people still believe this.  It seems so obvious that the more people who are in ICU with Covid then the less people we can treat for other illnesses and not the other way round.  Surely they ask prospective health secretaries which way round this is at the interview?

Anyway I think this covers it off.

https://twitter.com/caz_sampson/status/1415723730882412550

No one talking about covid length of stay so I will.
Median ICU stay:-
Heart/major cancer surgery 1-2d
Covid (not ventilated)
Covid (ventilated) 20d
Covid (kidney support) 32d 
Do the maths
...
So when ICU is full, 1 patient with severe covid19 requiring invasive ventilation (which up till now has been about 60% of the 37500 ppl admitted to England, Wales & NI) cancels 10-20 heart/major cancer surgeries.

[Marky147]

He was on the radio today with some other shrewdies, so going to listen to that when I finish working.

James Ward
Tim Harford
Muge Cevik
Claire Steves
Evan Davis
Paul  Mainwood

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000y49w

Recognise Muge and Paul from Twitter (Muge a virologist and Paul been tracking the vaccines).

[Marky147]

Not had a chance to read it yet, but James Ward has put a thread up going over his and everyone else's modelling

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1417176537611358215

James Ward still very good.  There is going to be an awful lot of uncertainty for a while as it is unclear what the susceptible population is. 

I saw this the other day

I don't know how people can still claim 18 months down the road that it is lockdowns that result in delayed operations and not Covid.  It just seems absolutely mad that people still believe this.  It seems so obvious that the more people who are in ICU with Covid then the less people we can treat for other illnesses and not the other way round.  Surely they ask prospective health secretaries which way round this is at the interview?

Anyway I think this covers it off.

https://twitter.com/caz_sampson/status/1415723730882412550

No one talking about covid length of stay so I will.
Median ICU stay:-
Heart/major cancer surgery 1-2d
Covid (not ventilated)
Covid (ventilated) 20d
Covid (kidney support) 32d 
Do the maths
...
So when ICU is full, 1 patient with severe covid19 requiring invasive ventilation (which up till now has been about 60% of the 37500 ppl admitted to England, Wales & NI) cancels 10-20 heart/major cancer surgeries.

But that won't fit in with the narrative of it being just a case of covid only, and ignoring everyone else. Even if it's a blatant lie.

[StuartHopkin]

Why do the papers report the deaths within 28 days of a covid test rather than those with covid on the death certificate?

No rise at all in the second figure for this wave.

[Doobs]

Why do the papers report the deaths within 28 days of a covid test rather than those with covid on the death certificate?

No rise at all in the second figure for this wave.

Because the deaths within 28 days are quicker and on the daily dashboard?  Death certificates aren't completed quickly and data just takes more time to process. I have seen both reported.

The last sentence doesn't appear to be true.  The latest ONS report is here.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending9july2021


Of the deaths registered in Week 27 in England and Wales, 183 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 1.9% of all deaths; this was an increase compared with Week 26 (109 deaths).

The number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England increased to 176 in Week 27 compared with 106 in Week 26; for Wales, there were three deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 27, remaining consistent with Week 26.

Note there is a 2 week lag, so it isn't particularly good for making quick decisions or for reporting the current situation.   

[Marky147]

Why do the papers report the deaths within 28 days of a covid test rather than those with covid on the death certificate?

No rise at all in the second figure for this wave.

They can't use those, as the certificates are always a few months behind.

Think official deaths are about 30k higher than ones using the '28 days' metric, though you'd think it was the biggest con in the history of the world, if you look online.

[The Camel]

what does "80% efficacy" actually mean?

Doesit men if 10 vaccinated people are exposed to the virus, 8 will get the diasease? or does it mean each person has 20% chance of catching the disease if exposed to it?

[Marky147]

what does "80% efficacy" actually mean?

Doesit men if 10 vaccinated people are exposed to the virus, 8 will get the diasease? or does it mean each person has 20% chance of catching the disease if exposed to it?

Depends on the efficacy against what, from what I understand.

Efficacy against infection.
Efficacy against hospitalisation/serious illlness.
Efficacy against death.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1417099161602859010

Here is a good thread, and the one Chise mentions by dvir_a as well.

Chise has been a godsend through the last year, and explains stuff so well, I can almost understand some of it