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Jon MW
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« Reply #4410 on: July 22, 2021, 07:57:30 AM »

what does "80% efficacy" actually mean?

Doesit men if 10 vaccinated people are exposed to the virus, 8 will get the diasease? or does it mean each person has 20% chance of catching the disease if exposed to it?

Like Marky says there are different efficacy levels for different things - but assuming it's just efficacy of catching the disease.

Science Wife says it's both simple, but not really simple.

The actual scientific meaning is that each person has a 20% chance of catching the disease if exposed to it

But in the real world that isn't quite how it works. Some people will still have a 90% of catching the disease while others will still only have about a 5% chance of catching it; and there are a bunch of other complications with working it out

So I suppose a more general definition is that the average chance of catching it after vaccination is 20%
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« Reply #4411 on: July 22, 2021, 09:35:09 AM »

The covid 19 actuaries response group did something on hospitilisations in England a few days ago.  It isn't long and I think it explains things well.

If you are 50+ you are 12x more likely to be hospitalised if unvaccinated than if you are fully vaccinated. 

https://www.covid-arg.com/post/how-many-covid-admissions-are-vaccinated

or the under 50s, we can see that 46% of the population is unvaccinated but they make up 87% of admissions. Meanwhile, 21% of the population is fully vaccinated but they make up just 4% of admissions. This tells us that the risk to unvaccinated people under 50 is 11 times higher* than the risk to vaccinated people.

For those aged 50 plus, we can see that just 5% of the population is unvaccinated but they make up 34% of admissions. Meanwhile, 79% of the population is fully vaccinated but they make up 43% of admissions. This tells us that the risk to unvaccinated people over 50 is 12 times higher* than the risk to vaccinated people.


So I think most in our age groups are going to see effiectiveness against hospitalisations of 90%+.  You should also see a better prognosis once there with faster recovery times and less death. 


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« Reply #4412 on: July 22, 2021, 11:34:37 AM »

Why do the papers report the deaths within 28 days of a covid test rather than those with covid on the death certificate?

No rise at all in the second figure for this wave.

Because the deaths within 28 days are quicker and on the daily dashboard?  Death certificates aren't completed quickly and data just takes more time to process. I have seen both reported.

The last sentence doesn't appear to be true.  The latest ONS report is here.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending9july2021


Of the deaths registered in Week 27 in England and Wales, 183 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 1.9% of all deaths; this was an increase compared with Week 26 (109 deaths).

The number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England increased to 176 in Week 27 compared with 106 in Week 26; for Wales, there were three deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 27, remaining consistent with Week 26.

Note there is a 2 week lag, so it isn't particularly good for making quick decisions or for reporting the current situation.   

I was looking at this https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths , third graph down.

I get the point there is a lag, will be interesting to watch it over the coming weeks.
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« Reply #4413 on: July 22, 2021, 11:56:09 AM »

Why do the papers report the deaths within 28 days of a covid test rather than those with covid on the death certificate?

No rise at all in the second figure for this wave.

Because the deaths within 28 days are quicker and on the daily dashboard?  Death certificates aren't completed quickly and data just takes more time to process. I have seen both reported.

The last sentence doesn't appear to be true.  The latest ONS report is here.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending9july2021


Of the deaths registered in Week 27 in England and Wales, 183 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 1.9% of all deaths; this was an increase compared with Week 26 (109 deaths).

The number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England increased to 176 in Week 27 compared with 106 in Week 26; for Wales, there were three deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 27, remaining consistent with Week 26.

Note there is a 2 week lag, so it isn't particularly good for making quick decisions or for reporting the current situation.   

I was looking at this https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths , third graph down.

I get the point there is a lag, will be interesting to watch it over the coming weeks.

I was wondering where it came from, and assumed a less reliable source.   That does seem to have a big lag, as it hasn't been updated past the 2 July whilst the ONS igures for the 9 July are already out.  So you are looking at deaths from 3 weeks ago that reflect cases that were about 8 weeks ago on average.   Given cases have risen by about 15x in that 8 weeks, then there is still some way to go on deaths.
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« Reply #4414 on: July 22, 2021, 12:48:24 PM »


Another Wednesday and still not much sign of a slow down.

For those that have long memories (well a few months), this Wednesday update was a follow up to some comparisions that were made between real deaths in England and forecast deaths in the Spectator.  Well this week, we have reached a milestone, the projected deaths on all those previous projections were zero by now.  So from now on we are above the very worst projections each week!  I must be clear that I don't think we have had as many "wave 2" deaths as we did in many of those projections, but thought it was interesting and it just shows how hard it is to model many months in advance.

Anyway onwards:

Deaths are probably increasing by over 30% a week (and were last week after correcting for lag).  We are up near 150 a week in England.  This is massively down on the wave 2 peak, but we likely have at lest 5 more weeks of 30% plus growth.  The growth may well increase by more than this going forward as restrictions aren't getting stronger.

Hospitalisations.  These are up another 50% or so, and we are now hitting close to 600 a day.  Wave 2 peaked at 4,000 a day or so, if we carry on at this rate we get there in about 5 weeks.  Because these people are younger, they are less likely to end up in ICU, but that still seems to suggest that we should be keeping some more measures in place?  If the aim of the measures was to save lives then we have probably done very well, but if the aim was to protect the NHS and clear the massive backlog, we seem to be going very much in the wrong direction.

Cases.  There may be some hope here, as the rate of increase may well be slowing.  They were probably up around 40% on average over the week to 7 July.  This may seem a lot, but it was 70% the week before.  I am hoping this is genuine and not an issue with hitting testing capacity in some places, or because many are avoiding testing for various reasons.

Vaccinations.  First vaccinations are now way down on the peak, with less than 100,000 vaccinated each day since the 4 July (peak was over half a million).  Second vaccinations are holding up better, but still down more than half from the peak.     

I am less pessimistic about the UK than mostly everywhere else.  If we can't slow down the case growth much in this wave, what hope does that give those with populations that have far lower rates of vaccination? 

I woke up on Monday to The Spectator and a few other cranks prematurely announcing a fall in Covid cases.  Well obviously they were just getting confused about weekend working practices (again), but Tim Spector from Zoe App has been reporting peaks too. 

So are cases falling yet? I don't think so.  Cases were up again on average by around 30% this week on offical figures.  The daily figures were up to 60k by specimen date a week agom which is getting near the previous peak.  I have the Zoe App and Tim Spector released a video yesterday on that (I can't see it on his twiter yet).  In that video he said the Zoe App is not used by many unvaccinated people, so they are having to make adjustments to their calculation to reflect the lower rates of unvaccinated people contributing.   This may well be an issue with official case numbers going forward too, why take a test if you believe Covid is a big hoax?   We do still test a lot more than virtually anywhere else, so are still going to get more accurate case numbers than nearly all other countries with signifcant cases.   

FWIW I saw one of the usual suspects suggesting the other day that the epidemic amongst the unvaccinated had already peaked quoting Zoe figures, which may have prompted them to take a better look.  I suspect that the unvaccinated Zoe population isn't of a similar composition to the general unvaccinatd population.  You wouldn't expect that people who believe that the vaccine will control your brain via the 5g network to then voluntarily download an app which gathers so much personal health data, so their dwindling unvaccinated/single vaccinated population has a higher proportion of young conscientious people rather than the David Icke/Piers Corbyn types.

Having said all the above, the end of Euro 2021 and schools breaking up should both slow the progress of the virus, which should offset in some way those now heading to nighclubs or removing their masks.  I don't think we'll get the full Netherlands boost in cases, as we have higher propotions vaccinated here, but it could clearly get worse or better from now on;  I wouldn't want to guess which way it goes.  I don't think we have to worry too much about people going to France given the lower case numbers there, and that quarantibe decision seemed a but political.  I'd be more concerned about lthe current low weekly vaccination levels if we do want to bring cases back down.

Anyway on to hospitalisations and deaths.  They are still both increasing by 40% a week.  Hospitalisations were up to 750 a day a week ago and deaths were up at 200 a week.   These are clearly going to keep rising by 40% or so for the next 5 weeks or so, given what has happened to cases. I don't think there is much more to add.  I think around 1,000 deaths a week by the end of the school holidays looks a likely outcome.   
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« Reply #4415 on: July 28, 2021, 09:03:22 PM »


Wednesday is on a Wednesday this week.

It seems we have a new health secretary, so we have had to endure some comparisons with flu and overexaggerated mental health problems and some nonsense about how we can have more operations by letting the virus rip (or something like that).  Only a matter of months until we get to hear him to talking about the great rest if he follows the trajectory of Clare Path, Nick Hudson and Ivor.  It seems they may have achieved what seemed impossible and found someone worse than Hancock at this.

Deaths were up 25% on the week to over 100 a week, hospitalisations up 30% or so on average to 400 a day and cases were up over 50% on the week.  Vaccinations have been falling noticeably recently too.

So none of these indicators is slowing down, and if anything, they appear to be accelerating.  There are some signs that there is a recent slowdown (Zoe reported it the other day), but it stlll seems likely that we do get more casdes per day than in wave 2.  As an indication of the new Covid World, 100,000 cases a day is going to translate to 2,000+ hospitalisations a day, which isn't that far from the last peak. 

James Ward has done a recent thread which forecasts possible deaths and hospitalisations based on more current information. 

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1412182736572399623

It seems clear that the NHS could suffer worse than before under the worst scenarios but deaths should still be lower. 

I'd add that if the patients are younger than average then deaths at half the levels seen in wave 2 isn't clearly going to be a better result than wave 2 either (is the death of a 50 year old worse than the death of an 80 year old?  We don't know the long term effects of Covid on our children).

I am probably less optimistic than I was, if that isn't clear.
 

I am a bit more optimistic again, but given I tend to look a week in arrears to allow for the lag, then I am not seeing falling numbers yet.

Cases.  These almost certainly peaked last week, but were still up 20% on 7 day averages exactly a week ago.  I presume this is just a mix of the schools closing for summer, vaccinations, lower testing and the end of the Euros.  Last week I wasn't sure which way it was going to go, but it seems these effects are much more dominant than the opening of clubs etc.  I think the lower level of testing, as kids aren't getting their LFTs, is likely to mean there is a bit of a false picture.  Kids are more likely to be mixing with more vaccinated people over the last week or so, so it is going to be harder for the virus to spread over the summer.   I assume we'll get a downtrend until at least September; by then we'll have a higher proportion vaccinated, so any uptrend then is going to be shallower.

Hospitalisations were up another 30% or so this week, and are likely to carry on increasing until mid August.  It is going to be pretty miserable in ICUs for nurses if it gets warmer.

The trend in deaths is now accelerating with a 50% increase last week.  We were looking at 50 deaths a day or so last week, and these are going to carry on increasing until the end of August.

So it s going to be miserable for a few more weeks in hoospitals, but hopefully there is some cause for optimism again.  I have heard of a few double jabbed people getting Covid over the last few weeks but fortunately none have gone to hospital, long may that continue as it can still be pretty shitty even if you have two jabs.       

 
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« Reply #4416 on: July 29, 2021, 12:09:50 AM »

James Ward, Ryan, Paul Mainwood, and the few others all seem reasonably optimistic as well.

Of course the smiley faces are going to lose it, if they haven't got anything to grift or obsess over by autumn.
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« Reply #4417 on: July 30, 2021, 11:53:15 AM »

https://quillette.com/2021/07/28/vaccines-and-the-coronavirus-crank-crisis/

Chris Snowdon has done an update, long but good. 

In other news...

Lockdown sceptics have changed their name to the daily sceptic, got to keep the cash coming in now lockdowns are looking less likely.   

Joel Smalley seems to have become too much of a crank even for Hart Group, and is no longer listed on their site, and doesn't mention them in his strapline.  Of course, they still include his, and many others, bullshit content on their site.


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« Reply #4418 on: July 30, 2021, 04:18:43 PM »

Saw he'd done an update, but not read it yet.

Smalley has gone even more bananas than Yeadon, if that's possible.
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« Reply #4419 on: August 04, 2021, 05:38:31 PM »


I am a bit more optimistic again, but given I tend to look a week in arrears to allow for the lag, then I am not seeing falling numbers yet.

Cases.  These almost certainly peaked last week, but were still up 20% on 7 day averages exactly a week ago.  I presume this is just a mix of the schools closing for summer, vaccinations, lower testing and the end of the Euros.  Last week I wasn't sure which way it was going to go, but it seems these effects are much more dominant than the opening of clubs etc.  I think the lower level of testing, as kids aren't getting their LFTs, is likely to mean there is a bit of a false picture.  Kids are more likely to be mixing with more vaccinated people over the last week or so, so it is going to be harder for the virus to spread over the summer.   I assume we'll get a downtrend until at least September; by then we'll have a higher proportion vaccinated, so any uptrend then is going to be shallower.

Hospitalisations were up another 30% or so this week, and are likely to carry on increasing until mid August.  It is going to be pretty miserable in ICUs for nurses if it gets warmer.

The trend in deaths is now accelerating with a 50% increase last week.  We were looking at 50 deaths a day or so last week, and these are going to carry on increasing until the end of August.

So it s going to be miserable for a few more weeks in hoospitals, but hopefully there is some cause for optimism again.  I have heard of a few double jabbed people getting Covid over the last few weeks but fortunately none have gone to hospital, long may that continue as it can still be pretty shitty even if you have two jabs.       

 

Well lots of good news this week.
 
Cases continued to fall all last week with an average drop of 30% a week.  There is some evidence that the rate of decrease may be flattening out a bit.  They are now down at about 20,000 a day, and hopefully cases will continue to drop further from here.  Flattening before the end of August isn't great, as the schools are likely to make it worse. 

Hospitalisations are where the good news is, and it is really good news.  I thought we'd get a peak in mid August at over 1000 cases a day, but that seems to be pessimistic now.  As the end of July approached we got a handful of days of over 900 admissions, but they seem to have started falling already. 

Deaths are still increasing by 30% a week, but given hospitalisations seem to have peaked, then hopefully deaths will peak soon too.

So good news all round, and long may it continue.

Best not mention the vaccination rate, as that may spoil the theme of the post.

Finally, OMG

https://twitter.com/liberty_places

16 places ffrom 150K upwards, what could go wrong?  Think even Ivor would be too embarassed to sell property in Zanzibar for UK prices.

https://www.facebook.com/libertyplaces

those of you who have tracked Dr Yeadon for the last 18 months would know he would never put his name to anything dodgy.

snigger.

Solid Covid avoidance strat to move to a country where few people are vaccinated and hospitals are thin on the ground.  Life expectancy is only 57 there, so presumably if Yeadon dies of Covid there it will have prolonged his life?  Think that is the logic they use.  Of course this assumes that it isn't just a con... 
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« Reply #4420 on: August 04, 2021, 06:12:50 PM »

Bounce today, which will no doubt have some wanting a full lockdown again Cheesy

A guy on Twitter does some really good debunkings of all these grifters, and the likes of HART group etc.

Think someone called 'Narice Bernard' is behind a lot of them, and was one that started those pink flowers on Twitter.

'Liberal Spring' it was called at the start, iirc.

Wankers.


This is the chap https://twitter.com/Aw_what
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« Reply #4421 on: August 04, 2021, 06:37:51 PM »

Bounce today, which will no doubt have some wanting a full lockdown again Cheesy

A guy on Twitter does some really good debunkings of all these grifters, and the likes of HART group etc.

Think someone called 'Narice Bernard' is behind a lot of them, and was one that started those pink flowers on Twitter.

'Liberal Spring' it was called at the start, iirc.

Wankers.


This is the chap https://twitter.com/Aw_what

Think Narice Bernard is behind Liberal spring, PCR claims, this liberty places property development and another one I'll remember later; and think he also was the person who started Hart.  
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« Reply #4422 on: August 04, 2021, 06:41:54 PM »

Bounce today, which will no doubt have some wanting a full lockdown again Cheesy

A guy on Twitter does some really good debunkings of all these grifters, and the likes of HART group etc.

Think someone called 'Narice Bernard' is behind a lot of them, and was one that started those pink flowers on Twitter.

'Liberal Spring' it was called at the start, iirc.

Wankers.


This is the chap https://twitter.com/Aw_what

Think Narice Bernard is behind Liberal spring, PCR claims, this liberty places property development and another one I'll remember later; and think he also was the person who started Hart.  

and the Yeadon campaign  https://twitter.com/Aw_what/status/1389251333572677640.  Cheers Marky

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« Reply #4423 on: August 04, 2021, 08:30:09 PM »

Some interesting reading, and some rather unsavoury characters.

It's quite pleasing to see the vaccine uptake, despite the best efforts of some rather warped and ignorant individuals.

The flowers are most certainly the noisy ones, and it's funny watching them have meltdowns over the vaccination program.
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« Reply #4424 on: August 10, 2021, 09:36:47 AM »

I feel kind of lucky that I'm already over 30. Must be sickening with all the restrictions if you've just turned 18. The adventures will have to wait
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