i didn't do an update last week, but going to do a quick one now.
Deaths have continued to fall by about 20% a week. There is a lot of variation with low numbers, but we are now seeing less than 10 deaths a day in England on average.
Hospitalisations are down to about 100 a day in the UK. As I mentioned yesterday, with low cases survival rates are better, so deaths should continue to fall for now.
The number of cases seems to have stopped falling for now, with numbers not much different from a couple of weeks ago and they are likely to be rising if anything. This is backed up by Zoe App data which is now showing rising cases and an R higher than 1 in most regions.
Click to see full-size image. |
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1392141771384164356I think it is inevitable that the UK starts seeing cases rising week by week for some time going forward... but cases are still tiny overall, and with the vaccination drive still ongoing deaths and hospitalisations are likely to remain low.
Another weekly update
Deaths are down again this week from 64 to 55 (week to 12 May, England only). It is 14%, but at these levels a couple of deaths either way would make it 10% or near 20%, so I can't really say the improvement is slowing.
Hospitalisations. They are still just over 100 a day. There seems to be some slowing here, which is probably just a reflection of the levelling off in cases over the last 2 or 3 weeks. I read something the other day saying that the majority of hospitalisations are now amongst the unvaccinated. I haven't checked it, but it seems plausible. If true there is a massive difference in Covid outcomes between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Vaccination rates are so high in the UK now with over 95% of the other 55s have had at least one dose, and 90% of those over 70 have had two).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1aLtyXUUAY-PrQ?format=png&name=900x900 Finally cases. i don't think there is much evidence either way whether cases are going up or down with levels still around 2,000 a day 1 Zoe App is reporting an R of 1.1, but also has cases as about 2,000 a day.
Meanwhile, Clare Path is reporting that all cases are "false positive" and have been for some time
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1394647083207077888/photo/1. Weird how Australia has a "false positive rate" of only 0.2% this week and that the only "false positives" in the last 7 days are from people who have just arrived there. It is almost as if they aren't false positives at all.
I don't see any very worrying signs right now, and drinking booze is probably OK anywhere in the UK.