COVID19

[Jon MW]

Is the data available for;

New cases who have been vaccinated?
New cases by age?

The number of cases after vaccination is basically monitored but not particularly reported on - because it's so low.

Here's a report on it https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/post-vaccine-covid-infections-deaths-rare-uk-study-finds-2021-04-30/
The numbers they found was out of 52,000 hospitalised patients there were 526 who had received at least one vaccine shot.

There would be 'some' more who got ill but weren't vaccinated but if trials suggest that a vaccine is 96% effective and all the data in the real world shows it's between 86 and 98% effective - there's not a huge amount of point in going out of your way to make it a priority.

The new cases by age is monitored but it's weirdly hard to find - this shows it in a download section https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/about-data#cases-by-age - but doesn't actually point to where the download is.

So it's clear that's around just not pushed to the front, and that's a bit less clear why. Plenty of the stats guys mentioned have covered cases by age and I frequently see education people refer to it - but I'm not quite sure where they're getting their data from.

[Doobs]

The download data is available here..

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download

...but there seems to be an issue with the server right now.

The ONS also produce it here

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-who-had-covid-19

The age analysis is in section 4.  As you can see, the figures are very low in all ages, and the confidence intervals are so large in some age groups that the numbers aren't particularly useful.

Zoe App also produces some age data here

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1393915753133449218/photo/1



I expect that in the near future, school age children will start to have the highest proportions.  In the general population most people are vaccinated, so the virus will find difficulty in spreading.  Within schools, I guess between 80% and 90% of people are unvaccinated, so the virus should be able to spread much more easily. 

 

[Doobs]

i didn't do an update last week, but going to do a quick one now.

Deaths have continued to fall by about 20% a week.  There is a lot of variation with low numbers, but we are now seeing less than 10 deaths a day in England on average.

Hospitalisations are down to about 100 a day in the UK.  As I mentioned yesterday, with low cases survival rates are better, so deaths should continue to fall for now.

The number of cases seems to have stopped falling for now, with numbers not much different from a couple of weeks ago and they are likely to be rising if anything.  This is backed up by Zoe App data which is now showing rising cases and an R higher than 1 in most regions.

Click to see full-size image.

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1392141771384164356

I think it is inevitable that the UK starts seeing cases rising week by week for some time going forward...  but cases are still tiny overall, and with the vaccination drive still ongoing deaths and hospitalisations are likely to remain low.

Another weekly update

Deaths are down again this week from 64 to 55 (week to 12 May, England only).  It is 14%, but at these levels a couple of deaths either way would make it 10% or near 20%, so I can't really say the improvement is slowing.

Hospitalisations.   They are still just over 100 a day.   There seems to be some slowing here, which is probably just a reflection of the levelling off in cases over the last 2 or 3 weeks.  I read something the other day saying that the majority of hospitalisations are now amongst the unvaccinated.  I haven't checked it, but it seems plausible.  If true there is a massive difference in Covid outcomes between the vaccinated and unvaccinated.  Vaccination rates are so high in the UK now with over 95% of the other 55s have had at least one dose, and 90% of those over 70 have had two). 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1aLtyXUUAY-PrQ?format=png&name=900x900   

Finally cases.  i don't think there is much evidence either way whether cases are going up or down with levels still around 2,000 a day 1  Zoe App is reporting an R of 1.1, but also has cases as about 2,000 a day. 

Meanwhile, Clare Path is reporting that all cases are "false positive" and have been for some time https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1394647083207077888/photo/1.  Weird how Australia has a "false positive rate" of only 0.2% this week and that the only "false positives" in the last 7 days are from people who have just arrived there.  It is almost as if they aren't false positives at all.

I don't see any very worrying signs right now, and drinking booze is probably OK anywhere in the UK.   

[StuartHopkin]

Drinking booze anywhere has been okay throughout the pandemic Mr Doobs 

[Marky147]

https://www.ft.com/content/c5297d58-ad6d-490f-89e0-74f9c13377e4

Good news on the Oxford bloodclotter, too 

[Marky147]

This guy is really good, and pretty funny what he and a colleague of his did here.

[RED-DOG]

This is worth a watch.


Extra Life: A Short History of Living Longer, Series 1: 1. Vaccines: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000w6s5 via @bbciplayer

[Marky147]

Dom Cummings has been having a good old rant here this week https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1396113145341612040

[Doobs]

Not many surprises from Dominic Cummings other than that he seems to be implying he wasn't in the let us kill them all quickly camp.  It is a bit mad that they still claim that herd immunity wasn't briefly a strategy when there are so many receipts.

Interesting pinned tweet from Stuart McDonald; it seems that Ivor is moving winter again.  If we ignore December and include May, winter deaths were lower than previous years...

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1396099563950428169

Quite a few people prepared to explain actuarial work to actuaries. 

[Marky147]

I saw that thread, and think Stuart quickly realised it would be futile to discuss with the likes of them.

I can't see anything printer boy posts now I'm blocked, thankfully.

[Doobs]

I saw that thread, and think Stuart quickly realised it would be futile to discuss with the likes of them.

I can't see anything printer boy posts now I'm blocked, thankfully.

I try and avoid him, but come across him through posts like that one and through Snowdon's tweets.  There was at least 3 actuaries arguing with Ivor on that thread yesterday.

Ivor has moved on to now claiming the virus lays dormant in your body until winter.  He seems to be in a minority of one amongst Covid "experts" on that one.  I don't know which winter that is obviously, it could be the May one, or it could be the August one.

[Marky147]

He's an idiot, and will be back into obscurity soon enough.

Snowdon just ripped him one in a new post I'm reading now.

https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/05/theres-one-born-every-minute-ivor.html

[Ledders]

I had some Pfizer yesterday. Got a link through whatsapp on Friday about a centre in Catford giving them out to anyone who rang up and lo and behold it was true. There were loads of us from all over London.

They also booked my next appointment for 4 weeks time which is very quick I thought. My mate who got his earlier in the week through his GP has it booked for 10 weeks.

[Marky147]

I had some Pfizer yesterday. Got a link through whatsapp on Friday about a centre in Catford giving them out to anyone who rang up and lo and behold it was true. There were loads of us from all over London.

They also booked my next appointment for 4 weeks time which is very quick I thought. My mate who got his earlier in the week through his GP has it booked for 10 weeks.

Can be anything up to 12, I think.

Depending on if they're trying to get as many first doses into arms as possible, or if they're trying to finish people off in the area.

I know AZ offers better protection if the doses are spaced longer apart.

[Marky147]

Nothing official, but a good thread on travel here.

https://twitter.com/EvilDoctorK/status/1396798790145912834

Asked by a chap I know about the US, and he said that he thinks US will go green as soon as they open to us.