Hand of the week: December 10th

[byronkincaid]

come on now flushy don't be thinking about complicated stuff like what he could be raising with that calls a shove,

YOU HAVE A SET FFS POOOOOOSH!!!

[Royal Flush]

come on now flushy don't be thinking about complicated stuff like what he could be raising with that calls a shove,

YOU HAVE A SET FFS POOOOOOSH!!!

What does he call a 3 bet with?

[boldie]

I want to let this run a little longer to see some more discussion on the river play.

His raising range on the end is quite high, i don't think we can deny that, the question is what raises and calls a push? I think he only raises with sets str8 and AQ poss AT. I think we can sensibly rule out AA/QQ from his range and probably AQ (raise pre) and AT (prob raises/passes pre and prob bets flop) this leaves us with set and str8.

So the question is assuming the range i have come out with, 55 77 KJ, is it correct to 3 bet shove the river?

We're getting pretty close to talking ourselves out of a push here and making a "conservative" play. I would still push here yes..if he has caught the straight that's fair enough but  I reckon, considering the way you played the hand, you should still push.

[byronkincaid]

come on now flushy don't be thinking about complicated stuff like what he could be raising with that calls a shove,

YOU HAVE A SET FFS POOOOOOSH!!!

What does he call a 3 bet with?

KJ obv

[Royal Flush]

I want to let this run a little longer to see some more discussion on the river play.

His raising range on the end is quite high, i don't think we can deny that, the question is what raises and calls a push? I think he only raises with sets str8 and AQ poss AT. I think we can sensibly rule out AA/QQ from his range and probably AQ (raise pre) and AT (prob raises/passes pre and prob bets flop) this leaves us with set and str8.

So the question is assuming the range i have come out with, 55 77 KJ, is it correct to 3 bet shove the river?

We're getting pretty close to talking ourselves out of a push here and making a "conservative" play. I would still push here yes..if he has caught the straight that's fair enough but  I reckon, considering the way you played the hand, you should still push.

Why? What calls?

come on now flushy don't be thinking about complicated stuff like what he could be raising with that calls a shove,

YOU HAVE A SET FFS POOOOOOSH!!!

What does he call a 3 bet with?

KJ obv

lolaments

[boldie]

I want to let this run a little longer to see some more discussion on the river play.

His raising range on the end is quite high, i don't think we can deny that, the question is what raises and calls a push? I think he only raises with sets str8 and AQ poss AT. I think we can sensibly rule out AA/QQ from his range and probably AQ (raise pre) and AT (prob raises/passes pre and prob bets flop) this leaves us with set and str8.

So the question is assuming the range i have come out with, 55 77 KJ, is it correct to 3 bet shove the river?

We're getting pretty close to talking ourselves out of a push here and making a "conservative" play. I would still push here yes..if he has caught the straight that's fair enough but  I reckon, considering the way you played the hand, you should still push.

Why? What calls?

come on now flushy don't be thinking about complicated stuff like what he could be raising with that calls a shove,

YOU HAVE A SET FFS POOOOOOSH!!!

What does he call a 3 bet with?

KJ obv

lolaments

Like you said 55 and 77 calls..and KJ obviously did judging by your reaction You could say "Now that you've ballsed the hand up completely should you still push on the river?"

Maybe even his AQ might call....though somewhat doubtfull.

2 out of 3 times you'll win..the other time you lose and can moan about how it was a bad beat..when actually you just F'ed up the hand...win win situation

[Royal Flush]

I've sent the reveal to snoops. So we shall all see soonish

[NoflopsHomer]

I've sent the reveal to snoops. So we shall all see soonish

You shove and he passes, right?

[boldie]

I've sent the reveal to snoops. So we shall all see soonish

You shove and he passes, right?

nah...flushy shoves..he calls and turns over AJ..thereby proving Flushy's old theory that everyone at the poker table is an idiot untill proven otherwise

[JungleCat03]

I call here.

Yes you miss out on value off lower sets but that's it really. I think flushy's range of set or straight as the only likely hands that call a push is likely and given the depreciating value of chips factor, and that the extra 32k or so chips you make are not that significant to your stack whereas the 32k chips you lose are significantly more valuable to you, it makes the conservative play correct here imo.

The way he plays the hand is significantly weighted toward K-J too imo. The way the hand pans out almost exactly fits the profile of how he would play K-J. Ok, so the preflop call is marginal but he has chips and it's not impossible he's decided to take a chance with this as he holds position on the preflop raiser. Every action post flop fits KJ perfectly.

If his range included hands like A-T A-Q A-K, I think a push would be better but as these hands are extremely unlikely given the lack of preflop raise and lack of flop bettage, I think by the end you can virtually put him on nothing (not that likely), a set or the nuts. I would expect a player to normally play the turn on this board with a set a little more aggressively too so it's probably close to a 50-50 if he has set or straight here.

So call and if he turns over a set, no worries you've lost a little bit of value here, if he turns over a bluff, well you've lost nothing and if he turns over the nuts, hard cheese, but you have 10 BBs and are no where near out of it given the average stack of 15 BBs...

[Royal Flush]

I call here.

Yes you miss out on value off lower sets but that's it really. I think flushy's range of set or straight as the only likely hands that call a push is likely and given the depreciating value of chips factor, and that the extra 32k or so chips you make are not that significant to your stack whereas the 32k chips you lose are significantly more valuable to you, it makes the conservative play correct here imo.

The way he plays the hand is significantly weighted toward K-J too imo. The way the hand pans out almost exactly fits the profile of how he would play K-J. Ok, so the preflop call is marginal but he has chips and it's not impossible he's decided to take a chance with this as he holds position on the preflop raiser. Every action post flop fits KJ perfectly.

If his range included hands like A-T A-Q A-K, I think a push would be better but as these hands are extremely unlikely given the lack of preflop raise and lack of flop bettage, I think by the end you can virtually put him on nothing (not that likely), a set or the nuts. I would expect a player to normally play the turn on this board with a set a little more aggressively too so it's probably close to a 50-50 if he has set or straight here.

So call and if he turns over a set, no worries you've lost a little bit of value here, if he turns over a bluff, well you've lost nothing and if he turns over the nuts, hard cheese, but you have 10 BBs and are no where near out of it given the average stack of 15 BBs...

Remarkably similar to my reveal, only far better written.

[ifm]

I call here.

Yes you miss out on value off lower sets but that's it really. I think flushy's range of set or straight as the only likely hands that call a push is likely and given the depreciating value of chips factor, and that the extra 32k or so chips you make are not that significant to your stack whereas the 32k chips you lose are significantly more valuable to you, it makes the conservative play correct here imo.

The way he plays the hand is significantly weighted toward K-J too imo. The way the hand pans out almost exactly fits the profile of how he would play K-J. Ok, so the preflop call is marginal but he has chips and it's not impossible he's decided to take a chance with this as he holds position on the preflop raiser. Every action post flop fits KJ perfectly.

If his range included hands like A-T A-Q A-K, I think a push would be better but as these hands are extremely unlikely given the lack of preflop raise and lack of flop bettage, I think by the end you can virtually put him on nothing (not that likely), a set or the nuts. I would expect a player to normally play the turn on this board with a set a little more aggressively too so it's probably close to a 50-50 if he has set or straight here.

So call and if he turns over a set, no worries you've lost a little bit of value here, if he turns over a bluff, well you've lost nothing and if he turns over the nuts, hard cheese, but you have 10 BBs and are no where near out of it given the average stack of 15 BBs...

Remarkably similar to my reveal, only far better written.

Almost as if you were in the same room...........

[GlasgowBandit]

I call here.

Yes you miss out on value off lower sets but that's it really. I think flushy's range of set or straight as the only likely hands that call a push is likely and given the depreciating value of chips factor, and that the extra 32k or so chips you make are not that significant to your stack whereas the 32k chips you lose are significantly more valuable to you, it makes the conservative play correct here imo.

The way he plays the hand is significantly weighted toward K-J too imo. The way the hand pans out almost exactly fits the profile of how he would play K-J. Ok, so the preflop call is marginal but he has chips and it's not impossible he's decided to take a chance with this as he holds position on the preflop raiser. Every action post flop fits KJ perfectly.

If his range included hands like A-T A-Q A-K, I think a push would be better but as these hands are extremely unlikely given the lack of preflop raise and lack of flop bettage, I think by the end you can virtually put him on nothing (not that likely), a set or the nuts. I would expect a player to normally play the turn on this board with a set a little more aggressively too so it's probably close to a 50-50 if he has set or straight here.

So call and if he turns over a set, no worries you've lost a little bit of value here, if he turns over a bluff, well you've lost nothing and if he turns over the nuts, hard cheese, but you have 10 BBs and are no where near out of it given the average stack of 15 BBs...

Remarkably similar to my reveal, only far better written.

Almost as if you were in the same room...........

JC aint gay is he?

[byronkincaid]

call

lol.

[Bongo]

I call here.

Yes you miss out on value off lower sets but that's it really. I think flushy's range of set or straight as the only likely hands that call a push is likely and given the depreciating value of chips factor, and that the extra 32k or so chips you make are not that significant to your stack whereas the 32k chips you lose are significantly more valuable to you, it makes the conservative play correct here imo.

The way he plays the hand is significantly weighted toward K-J too imo. The way the hand pans out almost exactly fits the profile of how he would play K-J. Ok, so the preflop call is marginal but he has chips and it's not impossible he's decided to take a chance with this as he holds position on the preflop raiser. Every action post flop fits KJ perfectly.

If his range included hands like A-T A-Q A-K, I think a push would be better but as these hands are extremely unlikely given the lack of preflop raise and lack of flop bettage, I think by the end you can virtually put him on nothing (not that likely), a set or the nuts. I would expect a player to normally play the turn on this board with a set a little more aggressively too so it's probably close to a 50-50 if he has set or straight here.

So call and if he turns over a set, no worries you've lost a little bit of value here, if he turns over a bluff, well you've lost nothing and if he turns over the nuts, hard cheese, but you have 10 BBs and are no where near out of it given the average stack of 15 BBs...

Remarkably similar to my reveal, only far better written.

Almost as if you were in the same room...........

lol ZeeJustinaments in PHA!