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Author Topic: Vagueness and the Aftermath - A sporadic diary  (Read 3587611 times)
RED-DOG
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« Reply #30780 on: July 12, 2019, 03:07:41 PM »

I learned loads about predicting and probability yesterday.

The wisdom of crowds and the law of large numbers.

Tank and I went to a Simon Singh lecture on probability a few years back, a very interesting talk, entertaining delivery. I went searching to see if there was a video, but he still delivers the lecture so I guess he doesn't want us all watching it on Youtube (probably Wink ).

While looking I found this - https://www.simonsingh.net/Simpsons_Mathematics/ - Which begins with the story of Prince Monolulu the Derby Tipster who claimed to be from Abyssinian Royalty - Tikay might remember him....


I miss the Tank. Do you see anything of him these days Rod?
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« Reply #30781 on: July 12, 2019, 03:50:27 PM »

I learned loads about predicting and probability yesterday.

The wisdom of crowds and the law of large numbers.

Tank and I went to a Simon Singh lecture on probability a few years back, a very interesting talk, entertaining delivery. I went searching to see if there was a video, but he still delivers the lecture so I guess he doesn't want us all watching it on Youtube (probably Wink ).

While looking I found this - https://www.simonsingh.net/Simpsons_Mathematics/ - Which begins with the story of Prince Monolulu the Derby Tipster who claimed to be from Abyssinian Royalty - Tikay might remember him....

I gotta horse, I gotta horse..
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« Reply #30782 on: July 12, 2019, 05:05:52 PM »

I learned loads about predicting and probability yesterday.

The wisdom of crowds and the law of large numbers.

Tank and I went to a Simon Singh lecture on probability a few years back, a very interesting talk, entertaining delivery. I went searching to see if there was a video, but he still delivers the lecture so I guess he doesn't want us all watching it on Youtube (probably Wink ).

While looking I found this - https://www.simonsingh.net/Simpsons_Mathematics/ - Which begins with the story of Prince Monolulu the Derby Tipster who claimed to be from Abyssinian Royalty - Tikay might remember him....

Ha I do remember him actually, he never died until the mid-sixties. I never met or saw him in the flesh, but my Dad told me all about him & he was always in the newspapers for one thing or another, very much a character. His catchphrase was widely known, anyone who followed the horses at the time would have known it. In some ways, John McCririck, who passed away last week, was cut from similar cloth - loud, flamboyant, eccentrically dressed.

As to Simon Singh, I strongly recommend his books, especially Fermat's Last Theorem. He also wrote the one pictured below, which I have not read, but I'm quite sure that Tal or Barry Carter could give you chapter & verse on that subject, as they often refer to it on Twitter.







 
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« Reply #30783 on: July 12, 2019, 05:34:18 PM »

I have read it indeed.

Perfectly pitched book: written for enthusiastic amateurs.
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« Reply #30784 on: July 12, 2019, 05:34:57 PM »

I learned loads about predicting and probability yesterday.

The wisdom of crowds and the law of large numbers.

Tank and I went to a Simon Singh lecture on probability a few years back, a very interesting talk, entertaining delivery. I went searching to see if there was a video, but he still delivers the lecture so I guess he doesn't want us all watching it on Youtube (probably Wink ).

While looking I found this - https://www.simonsingh.net/Simpsons_Mathematics/ - Which begins with the story of Prince Monolulu the Derby Tipster who claimed to be from Abyssinian Royalty - Tikay might remember him....

Ha I do remember him actually, he never died until the mid-sixties. I never met or saw him in the flesh, but my Dad told me all about him & he was always in the newspapers for one thing or another, very much a character. His catchphrase was widely known, anyone who followed the horses at the time would have known it. In some ways, John McCririck, who passed away last week, was cut from similar cloth - loud, flamboyant, eccentrically dressed.

As to Simon Singh, I strongly recommend his books, especially Fermat's Last Theorem. He also wrote the one pictured below, which I have not read, but I'm quite sure that Tal or Barry Carter could give you chapter & verse on that subject, as they often refer to it on Twitter.







 



Thanks for the recommendations. Math (s) fascinate me but stuff has to be explained in a very simplified way for me to be able to grasp it.

The programme I watched last night explained the law of big numbers thing by showing a good basketball player miss 4 of his first five baskets and a mediocre player get 5/5.

On paper the good player was crap and the mediocre player was great. The truth came out after 50 attempts each though. Big numbers see.

The wisdom of crowds.
A few hundred people at a state fair tried to guess the weight of an ox. The vast majority of them were miles out, but the average of their answers came within 1% of the correct answer.

A computer learns to recognise a cat photo by being shown hundreds of pictures along with the information 'cat' or 'not a cat'.

Then someone found out that it could do the same thing when looking for melanomas in scan results, and it was more accurate than a human.

Fascinating stuff in a simple format. Just up my street.
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« Reply #30785 on: July 12, 2019, 05:38:36 PM »

Maths is flipping awesome. Imagine not liking maths? It's like not enjoying a Roger Federer backhand or a PG Wodehouse description.
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« Reply #30786 on: July 12, 2019, 05:40:35 PM »

Henry glanced hastily at the mirror. Yes, he did look rather old. He must have overdone some of the lines on his forehead. He looked something between a youngish centenarian and a nonagenarian who had seen a good deal of trouble.

Or

One of the first lessons life teaches us is that on these occasions of back-chat between the delicately-nurtured a man should retire into the offing, curl up in a ball, and imitate the prudent tactics of the opossum, which, when danger is in the air, pretends to be dead, frequently going to the length of hanging out crêpe and instructing its friends to stand round and say what a pity it all is.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 05:44:48 PM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #30787 on: July 12, 2019, 05:45:14 PM »

Maths is flipping awesome. Imagine not liking maths? It's like not enjoying a Roger Federer backhand or a PG Wodehouse description.


I say, a fellow PG Wodehouse fan, dash it all.

I wonder If we will ever persuade Tikay to read him?

When it comes to descriptions, he's like Bill Bryson on steroids.
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tikay
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« Reply #30788 on: July 12, 2019, 06:01:25 PM »

I learned loads about predicting and probability yesterday.

The wisdom of crowds and the law of large numbers.

Tank and I went to a Simon Singh lecture on probability a few years back, a very interesting talk, entertaining delivery. I went searching to see if there was a video, but he still delivers the lecture so I guess he doesn't want us all watching it on Youtube (probably Wink ).

While looking I found this - https://www.simonsingh.net/Simpsons_Mathematics/ - Which begins with the story of Prince Monolulu the Derby Tipster who claimed to be from Abyssinian Royalty - Tikay might remember him....

Ha I do remember him actually, he never died until the mid-sixties. I never met or saw him in the flesh, but my Dad told me all about him & he was always in the newspapers for one thing or another, very much a character. His catchphrase was widely known, anyone who followed the horses at the time would have known it. In some ways, John McCririck, who passed away last week, was cut from similar cloth - loud, flamboyant, eccentrically dressed.

As to Simon Singh, I strongly recommend his books, especially Fermat's Last Theorem. He also wrote the one pictured below, which I have not read, but I'm quite sure that Tal or Barry Carter could give you chapter & verse on that subject, as they often refer to it on Twitter.







 



Thanks for the recommendations. Math (s) fascinate me but stuff has to be explained in a very simplified way for me to be able to grasp it.

The programme I watched last night explained the law of big numbers thing by showing a good basketball player miss 4 of his first five baskets and a mediocre player get 5/5.

On paper the good player was crap and the mediocre player was great. The truth came out after 50 attempts each though. Big numbers see.

The wisdom of crowds.
A few hundred people at a state fair tried to guess the weight of an ox. The vast majority of them were miles out, but the average of their answers came within 1% of the correct answer.

A computer learns to recognise a cat photo by being shown hundreds of pictures along with the information 'cat' or 'not a cat'.

Then someone found out that it could do the same thing when looking for melanomas in scan results, and it was more accurate than a human.

Fascinating stuff in a simple format. Just up my street.

There is (or is not....) a law of small numbers too.

This is the one that trips up the Tin Hat Brigade, & we see a whole load of it Next Door. Fella loses with Aces twice in a night & sees that as proof that the site is rigged. One chap lost 8 out of 11 hands, so dealt out 11 hands on his kitchen table to prove that it should not happen. We tried to explain sample size to him, but once they get this stuff in their mind there's no convincing them.

 Click to see full-size image.

 
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« Reply #30789 on: July 12, 2019, 06:03:33 PM »

Maths is flipping awesome. Imagine not liking maths? It's like not enjoying a Roger Federer backhand or a PG Wodehouse description.


I say, a fellow PG Wodehouse fan, dash it all.

I wonder If we will ever persuade Tikay to read him?

When it comes to descriptions, he's like Bill Bryson on steroids.

My mind is not closed to trying P G Wodehouse. Not sure where I'd start, mind, think he wrote one or two books. Something with Jeeves in I suppose.
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« Reply #30790 on: July 12, 2019, 07:43:18 PM »

I learned loads about predicting and probability yesterday.

The wisdom of crowds and the law of large numbers.

Tank and I went to a Simon Singh lecture on probability a few years back, a very interesting talk, entertaining delivery. I went searching to see if there was a video, but he still delivers the lecture so I guess he doesn't want us all watching it on Youtube (probably Wink ).

While looking I found this - https://www.simonsingh.net/Simpsons_Mathematics/ - Which begins with the story of Prince Monolulu the Derby Tipster who claimed to be from Abyssinian Royalty - Tikay might remember him....


I miss the Tank. Do you see anything of him these days Rod?

I saw him last a few years back when he was trying out standup - he was quite good too. I see the occasional family update or quip on facebook, but having left Glasgow have lost contact with a lot of folk.
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« Reply #30791 on: July 14, 2019, 08:38:45 AM »

Went to look at a motor for sale yesterday. It was located on a hillside farm near the village of Delph on the bleak and beautiful Saddleworth Moor in God's own country. At least it used to be in God's own country until 1974 when the thieving Mancunians stole it.

 Click to see full-size image.




I love being amongst these 'last for ever' stone houses with their weather-beaten, unsuspicious occupants. It's all Pennine way, mill race and Brontie sisterish. Every fold in the rolling moorland seems to hide another little bastion of unchangedness.

 Click to see full-size image.



The place I wanted was clearly visible on the hillside, (That's it on the upper right) but neither I, nor the lady in my sat-nav could work out how to get to it.

 Click to see full-size image.

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« Reply #30792 on: July 14, 2019, 08:57:29 AM »


My brother lived in Diggle (very near Delph) for 30 plus years until a couple of years ago.
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« Reply #30793 on: July 14, 2019, 09:04:18 AM »


My brother lived in Diggle (very near Delph) for 30 plus years until a couple of years ago.


Yes, we went to Diggle, and we went here,

 Click to see full-size image.


But we didn't see any old men going down a hill in a tin bath.


And we went here, but it wasn't as exciting as it sounds.


 Click to see full-size image.




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« Reply #30794 on: July 14, 2019, 10:14:34 AM »

Friday night, the son with the new car asked if I would help him replace an eight quid gasket on Saturday. Garage had quoted £170 for the job.

When my fingers regain full working order I'll explain how £170 would have been stupendous value.
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