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Author Topic: Fold the nuts?  (Read 3649 times)
StuartHopkin
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2008, 03:09:36 PM »

He only wins the $600 pot once for every ten times he shoves and gets two calls.

Think someone best get his text book out before we go to Luton!

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NoflopsHomer
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2008, 03:18:41 PM »

It just seems to me that this hand could've been won on the flop with an all in. Thoughts??

The money is too shallow at this point.
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ACE2M
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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2008, 03:38:56 PM »


Or am I just stupid??

basically his nut hand is incredibly vulnerable with no improvement potential. He could already be tied for the nuts with the oppo free rolling a draw, he could be up against a combined 2 hand mega draw as he is here. If you jam on the flop his equity for his $200 is around $60, meaning everytime he makes this move he loses $140 on average. He can of course be in better equity situations but if you took an average i would expect to be somewhere around 20/25% so losing him on average around $75 every time he jams the flop.


This makes sense apart from the $60 equity for the $200. Where does the $60 come from? Sorry I'm not up on all the terms.

also if he jams the flop then would it be correct for the other 2 to call? First to act has top set on a decent drawing board so does he call for $152 in to a $320 pot when he's probably behind anyway with a few FH outs to his credit? If he calls then Player 3 may be priced in but if not can player 3 call with 15 outs (only straights, no flushes) and no made hand? I don't think I would without the flush draw for back up.

Once the turn has been seen then there is no chance of a fold from anyone. It's costing Trottstar $160 to win at least $328 if he gets a call. Once Homer calls then Wurtzy's not far off his odds to hit his FH. (Although I'd have folded if I was him).

It just seems to me that this hand could've been won on the flop with an all in. Thoughts??

PS. Thanks for not saying I was stupid  Wink


If all the money goes in on the flop from all three players which it looks like it will. Floppy will put in $200  and on average will receive 9% of the pot back roughly = $60 a $140 loss on his $200 investment. When the money does go in floppy can expect on average 19% of the pot back about $120, still a loss on average of $80 from his $200 investment.

Would you fold on that flop with either of those hands if the action plays out with Floppy jamming? You shouldn't. If you fold your expected return becomes 0. Now figure out what your average return will be if you put it all in, if this is more than you are left with if you fold to the jam then calling a jam is more profitable long term. Of course there are variances in the hands you are up against but you should take estimates based on your read of the situation.

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« Reply #18 on: May 06, 2008, 04:00:08 PM »

Full Tilt Poker Game #6292209482: Table Hathaway (6 max) - $1/$2 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 23:34:41 ET - 2008/05/04
Seat 1: codice ($80.85)
Seat 3: PhanaticSlim ($216.35)
Seat 4: trottstar ($310.20)
Seat 5: Foaming_Homer ($200)
Seat 6: Wurtzyboy ($214.75)
trottstar posts the small blind of $1
Foaming_Homer posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Foaming_Homer [ ]
codice stands up
Wurtzyboy calls $2
codice folds
PhanaticSlim folds
trottstar calls $1
Foaming_Homer raises to $8
Wurtzyboy calls $6
trottstar calls $6
*** FLOP *** [ ]
trottstar has 15 seconds left to act
trottstar checks
Foaming_Homer has 15 seconds left to act
Foaming_Homer bets $16
Wurtzyboy raises to $48
trottstar calls $48

When you raised from the Big Blind preflop apart from the dream flop of  Two Clubs three clubs what were you hoping to hit on the flop?
Personally if I'd raised preflop then hit the nuts on a dangerous board I'd want to try and get my whole stack into the pot to try and either take it down on the flop or try and get heads up. As it happened a 2nd flush draw appeared on the turn and now I'm not sure if I'm prepared to call when potentially I could be losing to half of the pack with flushes and thats without redraws to higher straights & any sets looking to house up. My own feeling is that I wouldn't have raised from the Big Blind then a call of the raise on the flop would have been cheaper and now I could definetely get away from the hand on the turn and probably only do about $26 in the coup.Its probably me just being a nit and not wanting to get involved in a big pot with a bag of spanners.
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« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2008, 04:28:34 PM »

When you raised from the Big Blind preflop apart from the dream flop of  Two Clubs three clubs what were you hoping to hit on the flop?

Anything that leaves me with a wrap (pref. rainbow, at worst with clubs). Trips. The nut straight.  A raggy board like K-7-2 or A-8-3 that I can usually taken down with a bet, a low paired board where I can rep the overpair and at this level ppl don't float. Decent two pair on an non-threatening board. Full houses, Quads, Straight flushes...etc

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ACE2M
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« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2008, 04:37:14 PM »

Full Tilt Poker Game #6292209482: Table Hathaway (6 max) - $1/$2 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 23:34:41 ET - 2008/05/04
Seat 1: codice ($80.85)
Seat 3: PhanaticSlim ($216.35)
Seat 4: trottstar ($310.20)
Seat 5: Foaming_Homer ($200)
Seat 6: Wurtzyboy ($214.75)
trottstar posts the small blind of $1
Foaming_Homer posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Foaming_Homer [ ]
codice stands up
Wurtzyboy calls $2
codice folds
PhanaticSlim folds
trottstar calls $1
Foaming_Homer raises to $8
Wurtzyboy calls $6
trottstar calls $6
*** FLOP *** [ ]
trottstar has 15 seconds left to act
trottstar checks
Foaming_Homer has 15 seconds left to act
Foaming_Homer bets $16
Wurtzyboy raises to $48
trottstar calls $48

When you raised from the Big Blind preflop apart from the dream flop of  Two Clubs three clubs what were you hoping to hit on the flop?
Personally if I'd raised preflop then hit the nuts on a dangerous board I'd want to try and get my whole stack into the pot to try and either take it down on the flop or try and get heads up. As it happened a 2nd flush draw appeared on the turn and now I'm not sure if I'm prepared to call when potentially I could be losing to half of the pack with flushes and thats without redraws to higher straights & any sets looking to house up. My own feeling is that I wouldn't have raised from the Big Blind then a call of the raise on the flop would have been cheaper and now I could definetely get away from the hand on the turn and probably only do about $26 in the coup.Its probably me just being a nit and not wanting to get involved in a big pot with a bag of spanners.

thats why not raising low rundowns is better play oop imo. Although it's deception value against average opponents is huge, so raising them a low % of the time is a perfectly reasonable play for me.

The action on the flop is telling you that aren't getting rid of anybody with a jam as what can raise and what can call will have the right price to stay in. So a fairly quick estimate should tell you it's a bad proposition to jam.

Given the action and the stack sizes though it's inevitable once a semi blank hits the turn and floppy is unlucky to still be in such a bad position on the turn, it's fairly rare to be holding the nuts and still be in such bad shape.
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EvilPie
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« Reply #21 on: May 06, 2008, 04:37:43 PM »


If all the money goes in on the flop from all three players which it looks like it will. Floppy will put in $200  and on average will receive 9% of the pot back roughly = $60 a $140 loss on his $200 investment. When the money does go in floppy can expect on average 19% of the pot back about $120, still a loss on average of $80 from his $200 investment.

Would you fold on that flop with either of those hands if the action plays out with Floppy jamming? You shouldn't. If you fold your expected return becomes 0. Now figure out what your average return will be if you put it all in, if this is more than you are left with if you fold to the jam then calling a jam is more profitable long term. Of course there are variances in the hands you are up against but you should take estimates based on your read of the situation.


Where are all these numbers coming from?? Is any of this based on not knowing what the other guys cards are?? Obviously with the information we've got here then it's an easy fold but if you call with the nuts for $48 on the flop then still have the nuts on the turn how can you possibly fold?

Like LLevan says it can't get much better other than hitting the perfect "dream flop".

What would you want to see on the turn? At least half the deck was going to make this a dangerous board (any pair, spade, diamond 10 J or Q) so try to get rid of everyone on the flop. If they don't go away then start praying.

I agree with LLevan. Don't get involved in the first place with this hand. Once you've bet the flop and been pot raised then it's time to get away or commit 100%. Your hand isn't going to get any better so either jam now or escape quick.

Stuart. Did one of you text books tell you to shove with 7 4 off?? Grin
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« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2008, 05:00:24 PM »

lol @ nits talking to lag


This is deffo a raising hand, at these games you can make sick BB/100 with a PFR around the 30% mark
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« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2008, 05:09:31 PM »


If all the money goes in on the flop from all three players which it looks like it will. Floppy will put in $200  and on average will receive 9% of the pot back roughly = $60 a $140 loss on his $200 investment. When the money does go in floppy can expect on average 19% of the pot back about $120, still a loss on average of $80 from his $200 investment.

Would you fold on that flop with either of those hands if the action plays out with Floppy jamming? You shouldn't. If you fold your expected return becomes 0. Now figure out what your average return will be if you put it all in, if this is more than you are left with if you fold to the jam then calling a jam is more profitable long term. Of course there are variances in the hands you are up against but you should take estimates based on your read of the situation.


Where are all these numbers coming from?? Is any of this based on not knowing what the other guys cards are?? Obviously with the information we've got here then it's an easy fold but if you call with the nuts for $48 on the flop then still have the nuts on the turn how can you possibly fold?

Like LLevan says it can't get much better other than hitting the perfect "dream flop".

What would you want to see on the turn? At least half the deck was going to make this a dangerous board (any pair, spade, diamond 10 J or Q) so try to get rid of everyone on the flop. If they don't go away then start praying.

I agree with LLevan. Don't get involved in the first place with this hand. Once you've bet the flop and been pot raised then it's time to get away or commit 100%. Your hand isn't going to get any better so either jam now or escape quick.

Stuart. Did one of you text books tell you to shove with 7 4 off?? Grin

you just aren't paying attention then. This an extremely fucked up hand and i am illustrating the figures because we know the result and can so figure out exact numbers. But given the action any reasonable plo player will be able to figure out that he may well be in dire straights on the flop or at the very best break even/tiny profit. Jamming the flop is abysmal play here. And if you read other posts you will see that i am saying that i would get it in on the turn also, i never once stated you should fold the turn.
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ACE2M
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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2008, 05:10:52 PM »

lol @ nits talking to lag


This is deffo a raising hand, at these games you can make sick BB/100 with a PFR around the 30% mark

i bet floppy is break even at best raising this type of hand out of the BB
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« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2008, 05:17:32 PM »

lol @ nits talking to lag


This is deffo a raising hand, at these games you can make sick BB/100 with a PFR around the 30% mark

i bet floppy is break even at best raising this type of hand out of the BB

Meta-game benefits then make it a very positive EV

Having an image as a lunatic @1-2 PLO is so good.
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« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2008, 05:23:26 PM »

lol @ nits talking to lag


This is deffo a raising hand, at these games you can make sick BB/100 with a PFR around the 30% mark

i bet floppy is break even at best raising this type of hand out of the BB

Meta-game benefits then make it a very positive EV

Having an image as a lunatic @1-2 PLO is so good.

are players observant enough at 1/2 for the meta game value to be of significant value?
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« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2008, 05:27:21 PM »

lol @ nits talking to lag


This is deffo a raising hand, at these games you can make sick BB/100 with a PFR around the 30% mark

i bet floppy is break even at best raising this type of hand out of the BB

Meta-game benefits then make it a very positive EV

Having an image as a lunatic @1-2 PLO is so good.

are players observant enough at 1/2 for the meta game value to be of significant value?

For sure, they know if you are raising 1/3 hands!

Luckily they don't realise you play tight post, so they just assume bottom 2 is always good.
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EvilPie
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« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2008, 06:36:30 PM »


If all the money goes in on the flop from all three players which it looks like it will. Floppy will put in $200  and on average will receive 9% of the pot back roughly = $60 a $140 loss on his $200 investment. When the money does go in floppy can expect on average 19% of the pot back about $120, still a loss on average of $80 from his $200 investment.

Would you fold on that flop with either of those hands if the action plays out with Floppy jamming? You shouldn't. If you fold your expected return becomes 0. Now figure out what your average return will be if you put it all in, if this is more than you are left with if you fold to the jam then calling a jam is more profitable long term. Of course there are variances in the hands you are up against but you should take estimates based on your read of the situation.


Where are all these numbers coming from?? Is any of this based on not knowing what the other guys cards are?? Obviously with the information we've got here then it's an easy fold but if you call with the nuts for $48 on the flop then still have the nuts on the turn how can you possibly fold?

Like LLevan says it can't get much better other than hitting the perfect "dream flop".

What would you want to see on the turn? At least half the deck was going to make this a dangerous board (any pair, spade, diamond 10 J or Q) so try to get rid of everyone on the flop. If they don't go away then start praying.

I agree with LLevan. Don't get involved in the first place with this hand. Once you've bet the flop and been pot raised then it's time to get away or commit 100%. Your hand isn't going to get any better so either jam now or escape quick.

Stuart. Did one of you text books tell you to shove with 7 4 off?? Grin

you just aren't paying attention then. This an extremely fucked up hand and i am illustrating the figures because we know the result and can so figure out exact numbers. But given the action any reasonable plo player will be able to figure out that he may well be in dire straights on the flop or at the very best break even/tiny profit. Jamming the flop is abysmal play here. And if you read other posts you will see that i am saying that i would get it in on the turn also, i never once stated you should fold the turn.

Please don't misunderstand me here. I'm not trying to be argumentative or anything I'm just trying to understand the hand. I was reading an article recently that spoke of omaha anomalies where hand A is fave over hand B, B is fave over C and C is fave over A which interested me a lot and I like to understand the figures. I find omaha intriguing and am enjoying learning it.

Given the exact hands then yes this hand is bad long term and I understand that. But if we don't know the other hands then I can't understand how any play other than all in or fold can work on that flop. If our hand can't improve then surely we're either trying to maximise the win or get away? I can't see any benefit in calling but please tell me if there is.

I would be interested to know what is Wurtzyboys EV if we jam against his raise. Should he call? Also if he does (or doesn't) then should trottstar call? These are all based on knowing the hands.

By the way, just so you know, my instinct (newbie instinct) would be to call in either situation in an online cash game because the all in could be on any old rubbish and I've got outs anyway. Just wanted you to know now so you can ridicule me if I'm wrong  Smiley
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« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2008, 06:47:31 PM »

Lets be fair though, this is the worst possible shape you can ever be with the omaha nuts.

Passing isn;t always the correct play is it.
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