Discussions about: Staking - Betfair Football Trading

Ok, my post is going to be too long to do. So I'm going to split it up. The first part will go here but also in a new thread for the ease of any readers available here: http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=48454.0. Be warned it is long and although I have checked and double checked everything, there may still be some errors for which I apologise in advance. I'm working on the rest of the spreadsheet and I hope to have the rest up later tonight. This part will cover everything from the start of the staking until the 14th January, the second part will have everything else.

1) Neil Blatchly (http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=106162) blondepoker regular, well-thought of and popular member starts a thread hoping to encourage investments on Betfair (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.0) planning to trade on football matches. He claims he will not charge a penny but gain experience for the future. By the 12th August 2009 (10 days after his initial post) he manages to create a roll of £3,250 with 14 investors in time for the start of the Premier League.

2) His first trade is on the Chelsea/Hulll game (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1024244#msg1024244) - this is shown as correct on the spreadsheet as a roughly £41 profit. His next result, the Man United match against Birmingham he calls a £42.34 every result. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1024786#msg1024786) Spreadsheet shows it as £45.27

3) Blatch has a good start and referring to spreadsheet, everything appears to have been above board. New investors come in seeing as Blatch has done quite well so far.

4) Early on (28th August) Blatch claims to have made £76 on the Barcelona/Shakhtar game, however the spreadsheet has this down as a £427 loss. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1031745#msg1031745). He says the Man Utd game "could be a tough one", which seems like an odd thing to say (if it's tough why bet on it?) seemingly preparing us all for the loss so his image will not be hurt too bad. He then manages to make £974.16 on the Man Utd/Arsenal game (according to the spreadsheet) but then claims to have only made around £400 and calls it a "one off" (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1032007#msg1032007). Note that £974-£427 comes closer to £550 and even accounting for the £76 still seems away from the "around £400" mark that Blatch gives. His next match is Portsmouth/Man City where he claims he makes £99. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1032190#msg1032190) Spreadsheet has it as a £59 profit. Similar thing happens with the England/Slovenia game (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1036167#msg1036167) He claims £124 profit, spreadsheet comes to £580 profit.

5) 7th September 2009, Blatch says he has now 22 different investors. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1037817#msg1037817)

6) Blatch claims a small profit from the Villa/Birmingham game of £22 on the 13th September. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1041262#msg1041262). No such bet exists on the spreadsheet although it is possible he made it on his own account and began confusing (deliberately or not) the two. However, he does make a huge bet with no lay on the Stoke/Chelsea match as shown below which he wins. This bet is never declared in the thread.

10-Sep-2009 00:00:00   10-Sep-2009 10:53:00      Settled      United kingdom   8886346410   100777364   Soccer      Fixtures 12 September / Stoke v Chelsea      Fixtures 12 September / Stoke v Chelsea; Match Odds   Chelsea   Back   GBP      United kingdom      2,161.91      1.43   1.43   929.62

7) 15th September, Blatch lumps on the Chelsea/Porto Champions League game. He declares a profit of around £169 (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.210). Spreadsheet said the actual profit is £1,132.14. Also, Blatch lays off the bet about 5 minutes or so after the game has started, something he declared he would never as he does not want to bet in-running. 16th September shows something similar, Blatch claims a profit of £46 from the Arsenal/Standard game. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1044050#msg1044050) In reality, he makes £1,823.91 according to the spreadsheet. £860 of this comes from backing Arsenal after they go 2-0 down @ 3.6 for £500 and then laying Arsenal @ 1.11 and 1.10 for £3k and £1.1k respectively at half time. Arsenal win 3-2. A couple of days later, Blatch posts a £302 profit for the Everton/AEK Athens game. Spreadsheet profit is £370.

8) Does not post the fact he has money tied up in the West Ham/Liverpool game where the profit is £832.29, this remains unknown to investors. Instead he points out the Chelsea/Spurs game where he makes £304.87 (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1046832#msg1046832) - for the first time in ages, the spreadsheet agrees.

9) September 21st. Blatch claims the current balance is £8.6k. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1047351#msg1047351). The current profit alone by this point on the spreadsheet is £6,641.72, the investment by this point is most likely a similar figure. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1032007#msg1032007) and (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1036167#msg1036167) show that the amount invested by this point was at least £5,980 by this point. This means the minimum gone missing already was over £4,000

10) Leeds/Liverpool post: (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1048709#msg1048709) - Spreadsheet correlates this as correct.

11) Fails to mention making £323.38 from trading the Man City/Fulham game on the 23rd September, however claims to make £176 on the Everton/Portsmouth game (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1051817#msg1051817). In fact, several trades on this game on the spreadsheet have him making £520.27 profit. He then claims to "nick a few pennies on the Arsenal/Fulham game making £121.90 (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1051917#msg1051917) - On the spreadsheet he made £343.38. There is no mention of the fact he made £43.15 from trading Wigan/Chelsea or £69.92 from the Sunderland/Wolves match (these were on the 26th and 27th September respectively). The Man City/West Ham game reports profits of £437 (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1053119#msg1053119) - The spreadsheet reports profits of £1,449.89

12) 29th September. Blatch talks about betting on the Liverpool game (against Fiorentina) and says, "I didnt trust myself today and bottle doing the Liverpool game but deep down knew they would drift. They went from evens to 2.3 and back in to 2.2, could have made a nice sum." (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1054166#msg1054166). In fact, the spreadsheet says he had already bet £3,000 @ 2.00 on Liverpool to win that morning before laying them for £2,200 at 2.2 just under an hour before kick-off and bizarrely laying £8 @ 46's 25 minutes into the game... He drops £792 as a result when Liverpool don't win. Needless to say, he did not mention this bet or the fact he loses £4,168.44 when Inter Milan fail to beat Rubin Kazan the same night. He also loses £4,000 when he backs Sheffield Utd against Ipswich and a further £2,391.87 the next night when Newcastle fail to beat QPR at home. None of these bets are shown to be laid off and lose over the two nights is a staggering £11,352.31. He had made £9711.71 so far however which means he has only £1,640.60 less than what the investors have put in. Obviously he does not mention any of this. Meanwhile everyone on the thread is talking about how the Everton vs Bate game is a perfect one to trade on. People are very excited that Blatch can pull out a big result but he posts that he only made £272 from the game. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1056051#msg1056051). The reality? He stopped trading on the account until the 18th October after the debacle of losing over £11,000 in two nights, he never bet on the game.

13) Blatch claims to have bet on the Man United/Sunderland match and made £123 on the 3rd October (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1057210#msg1057210). It never happened in the spreadsheet. He then has no bets over the two weeks following, finally coming back with the Wigan Man City match for a £72 profit which corresponds with the spreadsheet. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1066702#msg1066702).

14) From (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1068677#msg1068677) onwards, Blatch talks about getting a little on the CSKA Moscow/Man Utd match and making £108 profit. The truth is he tried to lay Man Utd and the bet never got put on as shown below.

19-Oct-2009 00:00:00         Cancelled      United kingdom   9227859712   100876579   Soccer      Fixtures 21 October / CSKA Moscow v Man Utd      Fixtures 21 October / CSKA Moscow v Man Utd; Match Odds   Man Utd   Lay   GBP      United kingdom      1,640.00      2.26

The page before he had said the money was tied up in the Chelsea/Madrid game, but Blatch had also managed to lose £268.98 in the Liverpool/Lyon match. Blatch claimed to have traded a £203 profit on the Chelsea game (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1069078#msg1069078), but in fact he had only made £32.82.

15) After these bets in 14) there are no records of any bets from that date (21st October) until the 16th December. He still posts results like this (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1069616#msg1069616) that never happened on the spreadsheet.

16) By 22nd October Blatch claims the initial investors have put in around £11,000. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1069589#msg1069589) and that the running total is "around £17k" (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1069646#msg1069646). Investors are continuing to come in unaware of what is actually going on. The general good faith in Blatch plus the enthusiasm of the investors draws everyone in.

17) More matches where Blatch claims profit that simply do not exist in the spreadsheet. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1070575#msg1070575) (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1075625#msg1075625)

18) Finally, Blatch posts his "first" ever loss. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1078328#msg1078328). Again this did not exist in the spreadsheet. Neither did these: (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1081841#msg1081841) (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1088807#msg1088807) (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1091757#msg1091757) (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1098252#msg1098252) (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1100113#msg1100113). Also, proof that Rookie is miles ahead of everyone. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1093743#msg1093743)

19) December 8th. Blatch claims the investment is now worth 270%. "I would have to re check all figures and work it out but off top of my head I think its around 270% now." (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1099753#msg1099753) I've noticed a lot of this, whenever people asked about the investment Blatch pulls up a random figure but then always says he would need to check it for sure.

20) Some prophetic words from Blatch with another result that doesn't appear on the spreadsheet. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1101468#msg1101468)

21) 16th December, Blatch starts trading again with Burnley vs Arsenal. He backs and lays as usual but then lays Arsenal for loads more @ 1.2 after they go a goal up. Burnley equalize and Blatch continues to lay Arsenal including a bet of £1,070 @ 1.87 during halftime when it's 1-1. The match finishes as a draw, had he not made this lay at half-time his profit would've been just 79p. Instead he makes £1,070.79. Needless to say, the investors are not told. Remember he always said he would not trade in-running.

16-Dec-2009 00:00:00   16-Dec-2009 20:34:26      Settled      United kingdom   9690599418   101002364   Soccer      Fixtures 16 December / Burnley v Arsenal      Fixtures 16 December / Burnley v Arsenal; Match Odds   Arsenal   Lay   GBP      United kingdom      1,070.00      1.87   1.87   1,070.00

22) The first piece of truth that is backed up by the spreadsheet in a long time, the Everton/Bate rematch for a profit of £739.33 (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1104238#msg1104238)

23) It's a good Christmas for Blatchly. He picks up £12,500 of new investment. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1108736#msg1108736) and on Boxing Day says, "The Chelski game is looking good for today". He has put everything on this game, but drops £20,432.25 backing Chelsea @ 1.60 and 1.61. He tries to layoff as much as he can 45 minutes before kick-off between 1.54 and 1.59 but can only layoff just less than £2,400. How does he break the news to the investors? "Made a bit of a balls up today. Should have had around 800 all round but got greedy and price drifted from 1.55 to 1.59 near kick off." (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1108813#msg1108813)

24) On the 27th Dec. Blatch says, "Didnt do anything today as I tied all the money up in the Chelski game vs Fulham tomorrow. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1109303#msg1109303). This wasn't true as he had been trading the Arsenal/Villa game, losing £135.29 in the process. He keeps trying to get more funds from James "Flushy" Dempsey, asking him twice to invest: (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1109311#msg1109311) and (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1109317#msg1109317)

25) Blatch posts an outright lie for the Spurs/West Ham game declaring a round £500 profit. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1109383#msg1109383). In fact, he laid the crap out of Spurs for a £7,199.98 loss. The Chelsea/Fulham result from 24) never shows up on the thread, why? Probably because he made a loss of 6p. Next result is Liverpool/Villa which he claims as a £582.81 traded profit. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1109761#msg1109761) The truth is that it was a £782.81 profit, £200 more. He also nets £192.40 from the Portsmouth/Arsenal game on the 30th December, this is mentioned here: (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1110759#msg1110759)

26) No sir, stealing from your friends is. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1109791#msg1109791)

27) Bobby1 (a very smart and respected poster for those who don't know him) makes a good point here but Blatch manages to fob him off. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1110527#msg1110527)

28) January 5th 2010, Blatch claims he has had a bet cancelled for Villa vs Blackburn. (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=43354.msg1114168#msg1114168) There is no evidence of this on the spreadsheet. He does make a bet on Arsenal vs Everton which goes unmentioned but can only manage a £1.52 profit.

08-Jan-2010 00:00:00   08-Jan-2010 21:29:55      Settled      United kingdom   9825551673   101040418   Soccer      Fixtures 09 January / Arsenal v Everton      Fixtures 09 January / Arsenal v Everton; Match Odds   Arsenal   Back   GBP      United kingdom      5,868.48      1.42   1.42   -5,868.48
09-Jan-2010 00:00:00   09-Jan-2010 14:57:23      Settled      United kingdom   9829440719   101040418   Soccer      Fixtures 09 January / Arsenal v Everton      Fixtures 09 January / Arsenal v Everton; Match Odds   Arsenal   Lay   GBP      United kingdom      5,870.00      1.40   1.40   5,870.00

29) Back in to the world of punting for Blatch on the 14th January in the Stoke/Liverpool game. He backed Stoke for thousands @ 4's and 4.1 and then laid off Liverpool too for anything between 2.20 and 2.28. Blatch got lucky with the match, Stoke scored an injury time equaliser and he would've lost huge (even by his standards) if Liverpool had won. Instead, he managed to net a profit of £22,088.65. The revelation later that he overslept and lost almost everything because of this game is probably half-true, his last bet on the game was made at 3.25am the night before. He could have overslept and had actually was planning to lay it all off before the match started. But as it turns out, oversleeping worked in his favour. With so many lies, it's hard to know what is fact and what is fiction.

30) 13th/14th Jan, Blatch uses the account to bet on the Womens' Tennis event @ the Medibank International Sydney, one of the tournaments before the Australian Open. He bets on three games using thousands of pounds to make a profit of £317.69 of which he tells no-one.