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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 14852240 times)
doubleup
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« Reply #103110 on: June 22, 2015, 06:13:28 PM »

With Doobs, whoever offered that 20-1 about a Jordy Slam should be embarrassed. They're effectively making him 7/4 to win the PGA.

Tiger had no competition when he was mopping up and went a few years starting sub 2-1 for every major. Jordan is some way off that and won't even be shorter than Rory at St Andrews.

I'm no golf expert but am definitely looking at having a chunk on Rory for the Open. He was crushing it in Oosty's year until the wind killed him.

Rory cannot play in fast running conditions.  Particularly with a breeze.  
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RickBFA
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« Reply #103111 on: June 22, 2015, 06:39:12 PM »

(sorry, more stream of consciousness)

i know its the day after the major, but what price would you make jordan for overseas SPOTY? (or specifically what price would you want to back him)

you are up against

messi
serena
novak
ronaldo

to give others at the head of the betting ahead of usain bolt, richie mccaw, suarez, hazard, ageruo, aussie cricketers etc etc


i will pop the market up when you give me prices. no oddschecking!

Just looked at main SPOTY market, front 4 in betting are Hamilton, McCoy, Murray and McIlroy.

More a question than a statement but is 1/5 on a male winner one of those short priced value bets?

I'd have thought it might be shorter. Is there realistically a high profile female who can win it?

Seems very unlikely to me.

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DungBeetle
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« Reply #103112 on: June 22, 2015, 07:02:51 PM »

(sorry, more stream of consciousness)

i know its the day after the major, but what price would you make jordan for overseas SPOTY? (or specifically what price would you want to back him)

you are up against

messi
serena
novak
ronaldo

to give others at the head of the betting ahead of usain bolt, richie mccaw, suarez, hazard, ageruo, aussie cricketers etc etc


i will pop the market up when you give me prices. no oddschecking!

Just looked at main SPOTY market, front 4 in betting are Hamilton, McCoy, Murray and McIlroy.

More a question than a statement but is 1/5 on a male winner one of those short priced value bets?

I'd have thought it might be shorter. Is there realistically a high profile female who can win it?

Seems very unlikely to me.



I am a firm believer in all publicity is good publicity.  Where is Mo trading?
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RickBFA
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« Reply #103113 on: June 22, 2015, 07:13:06 PM »

(sorry, more stream of consciousness)

i know its the day after the major, but what price would you make jordan for overseas SPOTY? (or specifically what price would you want to back him)

you are up against

messi
serena
novak
ronaldo

to give others at the head of the betting ahead of usain bolt, richie mccaw, suarez, hazard, ageruo, aussie cricketers etc etc


i will pop the market up when you give me prices. no oddschecking!

Just looked at main SPOTY market, front 4 in betting are Hamilton, McCoy, Murray and McIlroy.

More a question than a statement but is 1/5 on a male winner one of those short priced value bets?

I'd have thought it might be shorter. Is there realistically a high profile female who can win it?

Seems very unlikely to me.



I am a firm believer in all publicity is good publicity.  Where is Mo trading?

Farah is at 50/1 with a few.

Two main women are Johnson Thompson at 10's and Ennis Hill at 16's.

I suppose it's a long time to tie capital up though for a short priced bet.
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Peter-27
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« Reply #103114 on: June 22, 2015, 07:34:01 PM »

Excellent, I did the same buy ££ as you although at 62 as opposed to the lesser line that you got. Will not be a pussy and hopefully enjoy seeing both drivers score points for the rest of the season - thankyou Smiley

You're very welcome Smiley

Peter you are seriously good

This. I haven't had a spread bet for 16 years. Your bullishness on this was off the charts.  Take this in the right way but you are one of the very few out there who is pretty clueless when it comes to the maths of betting but we can over ride that 10 fold just by your sheer knowledge of the sport.  Very very Impressive.

You flatter me Smiley

The funny thing is that my mathematical ability is actually of a very high standard (in my opinion anyway!), but you're right, I am clueless when it comes to the maths of betting purely because I've never had to look into it. Maybe this is an area I should explore at some point!  

If it ain't broke don't fix it Peter! Just keep finding winners!

Haha, I'll do my best  Tongue

I doubted Peter at first, but I'm convert. Different class tipstering.

One sure way of stopping the streak would be for to start backing the picks, I could stop a bus.

So I'll continue to swerve and cheer from the sidelines. GL

And me Keith Sad

The main thing that has impressed me is Peter has put people up at times when others seemed lukewarm at best

A good example was I remember him a few weeks back when Hamilton looked weighed in stating a strong case that rosberg was more than capable of winning the title...

Looks at least a promising shout now.



I let my results do the talking  Cool  Tongue

Seriously though, I'm glad that I've managed to establish myself here, this is a very friendly community that I love being part of Smiley

The Force India and McLaren spread bets were fantastic !

Certainly looking promising!!

Peter you are seriously good

Very good tip on Force India spreads - 30 points in a weekend!   I'm a bit surprised they aren't even high than 81 - can't see any reason why Lotus are rated nearly 30 points higher and they are on the same points pretty much?

Force India joy aside - F1 does seem as boring as I can remember it has ever been.  Seems to be a massive gap in engines with no prospect of catch up.  (And of course add to this Mercs being so far ahead).  Most races seem the same these days.

Speaking of engine differentials do we think Red Bull are a little high at 181 to sell?  Are they going to be in a position to score another 125 points this season.  Can't see it myself.



No, I don't understand why Lotus are rated higher either - seems to be based on historic reputation .. makes no sense.

What makes F1 unique is that it is a team championship rather than other race series where everyone is in the same car. In a sport of this nature, you're always going to get periods of dominance. However, it's not all predictable, the midfield, 7th-16th, is as close as ever. It's not all about the win in Formula One - especially when they're competing for such high sums of money.

Red Bull probably are a little high at 181, but I wouldn't be confident enough to suggest betting on them.
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« Reply #103115 on: June 22, 2015, 08:31:38 PM »

the line up is likely to be

six batsmen
haddin
lyon
3 quicks

unless cardiff comes up green, which it shouldn't. as we have said before you are not gonig to prepare somethign too sporting against this aussie pace attack

johnson, starc, hazlewood, harris, siddle for 3 spots

lets say for now if they are all fit siddle misses out as he did in the west indies

3 for 4 spots

hazlewood did well in the west indies, is the man in possession

but harris was brilliant on the last ashes tour, over 20 wickets and has been over here for a few weeks playing with the academy side getting match fit

i think you have to pencil johnson and starc in for now so its hazlewood v harris for third seamer

my problem is that johnson and starc aside can we say that any of the other three are going to play all five tests? might they be rotated?

the answer to that is no we can't be sure and yes they might rotate

that makes the aussie top bowler market quite tricky at the moment to me

i personally wouldn't have johnson favourite but do feel he is almost certain to start the first test

I think the only bowler who is guaranteed to start all the tests is Starc.  I think he's a spot of value at 3-1 personally if my thinking is correct?  Any of the others could be rotated imo.

Harris is unlikely to play the latter of the back-to-back tests but a banker forr the rest, so if the 1st test goes 5 days he'll miss the 2nd at lords, and same goes for the 4th at trent bridge. If I was picking their team I wouldn't have a clue who to leave out, Starc's been on fire lately, Hazlewood looks the real deal and Harris is top class. On the form of their home series v India, the World cup then the Windies tour Johnson would be left out, but they'll be banking on him having the psychological edge over our batting. A lot of second-guessing needed, looks the hardest of the 4 series markets.
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Tal
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« Reply #103116 on: June 22, 2015, 08:32:39 PM »

Vegas books on the day's women's soccer championship games are:

England +170
Norway +160
Tie +220

Columbia +160
USA -750
Tie +600

I don't have comparators with the UK markets, so LMK if any of these appeal. I can check a better sports book than Caesar's, like Cosmo, if there's any point in doing so. Just wandered past and thought I'd let you know what the prices are. 5/1 the draw in the US game seems big. How rubbish are Columbia if they're 9/5 to win?

I can settle up with Jeeves, if Teak A is unavailable.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
Tal
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« Reply #103117 on: June 22, 2015, 08:34:12 PM »

Draw now +700, USA -750 and Columbia +160.

What are the UK prices?
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« Reply #103118 on: June 22, 2015, 08:43:42 PM »

Draw now +700, USA -750 and Columbia +160.

What are the UK prices?

1.18, 8.4, 25.0. 1X2
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Doobs
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« Reply #103119 on: June 22, 2015, 08:44:12 PM »

Draw now +700, USA -750 and Columbia +160.

What are the UK prices?

1/6, draw 7/1, away 22/1

I assume this is because USA see full time pros and Columbia (sic) are a pub team.  Still temped by the 22/1 though.  I know nothing of this game.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #103120 on: June 22, 2015, 08:52:56 PM »

Thank you.

Have to love Caesar's. 8/5 here and 22/1 in the UK. How do they get away with that? Must be nice to run a 140% book and have people happily handing over their money.

I'll focus on the proper sportsbooks in future.  Cantor book in the Cosmopolitan, IIRC.
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« Reply #103121 on: June 22, 2015, 09:08:28 PM »

Thank you.

Have to love Caesar's. 8/5 here and 22/1 in the UK. How do they get away with that? Must be nice to run a 140% book and have people happily handing over their money.

I'll focus on the proper sportsbooks in future.  Cantor book in the Cosmopolitan, IIRC.


Thin, I won't be reporting any poker success, so I best let you all know I'm in Vegas somehow........ Cheesy
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
Tal
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« Reply #103122 on: June 22, 2015, 09:33:34 PM »

Thank you.

Have to love Caesar's. 8/5 here and 22/1 in the UK. How do they get away with that? Must be nice to run a 140% book and have people happily handing over their money.

I'll focus on the proper sportsbooks in future.  Cantor book in the Cosmopolitan, IIRC.


Thin, I won't be reporting any poker success, so I best let you all know I'm in Vegas somehow........ Cheesy

Ha!

The rate you guys are making money ITT, it's almost certainly +EV for me to fly back immediately!

I'm at least breaking even on wine, women and song. Still 0/0 on the poker, too. For now.
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« Reply #103123 on: June 22, 2015, 11:07:22 PM »

 Have fun and good luck mate.
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« Reply #103124 on: June 23, 2015, 12:04:19 AM »

Thank you.

Have to love Caesar's. 8/5 here and 22/1 in the UK. How do they get away with that? Must be nice to run a 140% book and have people happily handing over their money.

I'll focus on the proper sportsbooks in future.  Cantor book in the Cosmopolitan, IIRC.

Are you sure it's not +1600?
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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