Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

You're right, Camel. He picked up a hamstring injury three weeks ago against the Pats. Since then, he has played against Oakland and Jacksonville, who both have big front fours. Marcel Dareus isn't going to be much easier, even without Kyle. Mangold is half fit at best but he's also a nutcase like most linemen so no one will see or hear him complain.

The Jets success will come from spreading the Bills D Line and playing extra receivers, rather than their recent tactic of having extra tight ends to bolster the line. If they squish the Bills front four inwards, there's not a chance of daylight. I expect them to test the linebackers and safeties in the slot to exactly that effect.

Funnily enough, I reckon the Bills will use McCoy in the passing game more tonight and target the same area of weakness. The Jets are statistically good against short passes but they aren't that good against the balls thrown in the centre, short or long. Tyrod Taylor showed last week he is only going to make pass plays when they're high percentage plays. McCoy is a good pass option. Richie Incognito has probably been the Bills' best player this season and keeps making gaps on the left side for running backs to get through. 80.5 combined rush and receiving yards is a good one IMO (Shouty red man)

Last week, Rex Ryan told the defense he wanted them to make sacrifices for the team and, in order to show he was part of the team, he told them he was simplifying the playbook on defense, so they ran basic plays almost exclusively against Miami. I expect something similar tonight.

With all the talk about IK Enempkali being named a team captain for this game (he was sacked by the Jets in preseason after he sucker punched their quarterback, Geno Smith - by the way, didn't that come out well for the Jets!), Rex made an interesting comment about making sure the former Jets players in his team got the chance to show their worth tonight.

He did something similar in the first game against Miami, where tight end Charles Clay got the first touchdown. Another former Jet playing in red tonight is Matthew Mulligan. A bit of a journeyman blocking tight end, who has played about 25% of snaps this season. He has one catch all season and has two career touchdowns. 20/1 anytime touchdown scorer could be fun. 66/1 with BMU or BillyMo first touchdown makes more sense to me, though, as what point is there sending a message late in the game? Do it early for maximum impact.

No strong views on Ivory from me. Close game so probably gets called upon for some legwork to manage the clock. Can't be a bad bet.

Let's have a fun tenner on Matthew Mulligan first TD with BMU

And £22 on LeSean McCoy to get over 80.5 combined rushing and receiving yards with The Red Bloke.

[MattyHollis]

Better offensively, better defensively, home team, and yet 5/6 available. Cannot understand why, and have bet the Jets.

[Doobs]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway. 

[arbboy]

first 3 races at hove (tv dogs ch 212 sky) all 5x6  results.  Worth keeping an eye on it.  No idea on the weather down there.  Can't see the live stream as on a train and the wifi is shit.

[Tal]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway. 

If he's going to be targeted, I am expecting first or second (depending on the toss) because it would be purely for psychological purposes that a guy who can catch but mainly blocks is getting a red zone target.

I don't think either is terrible tbh. Just figured there's a weighting towards first score.

[MattyHollis]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway. 

For Buffalo, under 2.5 is quoted around 4/6. You'd also have to factor in the teams chances of scoring the first TD, which is quoted around evens.

Either way there is no value in the touchdown scorer bet in the slightest, it's just a dart.

[Tal]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway. 

For Buffalo, under 2.5 is quoted around 4/6. You'd also have to factor in the teams chances of scoring the first TD, which is quoted around evens.

Either way there is no value in the touchdown scorer bet in the slightest, it's just a dart.

I prefer hunch to dart, but point taken

Rex is very difficult to predict. Half the time I'm not sure even he knows what he's thinking.

[MattyHollis]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway. 

For Buffalo, under 2.5 is quoted around 4/6. You'd also have to factor in the teams chances of scoring the first TD, which is quoted around evens.

Either way there is no value in the touchdown scorer bet in the slightest, it's just a dart.

I prefer hunch to dart, but point taken

Rex is very difficult to predict. Half the time I'm not sure even he knows what he's thinking.

The whole sport is difficult to predict to be fair

I don't doubt your ability to find wrong lines on players etc but a few of these TD 'hunches' you've had lately would get laughed out of town if they had come from anyone else.





Now we sit back and watch Matthew fkin Mulligan dot up.....!

[Doobs]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway. 

For Buffalo, under 2.5 is quoted around 4/6. You'd also have to factor in the teams chances of scoring the first TD, which is quoted around evens.

Either way there is no value in the touchdown scorer bet in the slightest, it's just a dart.

Your don't have to do any of that stuff in the first paragraph.  

The second is probably true though.  

[arbboy]

first 3 races at hove (tv dogs ch 212 sky) all 5x6  results.  Worth keeping an eye on it.  No idea on the weather down there.  Can't see the live stream as on a train and the wifi is shit.

Does anyone back 1x2 rfc's when i put up a potential outside bias in the next race.  Sure it is a profitable system!

[Tal]

Tal, how many touchdowns do you expect tonight? 4/5 maybe?  If so 20/1 anytime is going to be better than 66/1 first.  20/1 anytime must be about equivalent to 90/1 first.  Unless there is some reason this fella is more likely to get 1st than 5th anyway.  

For Buffalo, under 2.5 is quoted around 4/6. You'd also have to factor in the teams chances of scoring the first TD, which is quoted around evens.

Either way there is no value in the touchdown scorer bet in the slightest, it's just a dart.

I prefer hunch to dart, but point taken

Rex is very difficult to predict. Half the time I'm not sure even he knows what he's thinking.

The whole sport is difficult to predict to be fair

I don't doubt your ability to find wrong lines on players etc but a few of these TD 'hunches' you've had lately would get laughed out of town if they had come from anyone else.





Now we sit back and watch Matthew fkin Mulligan dot up.....!

I probably should address this.

I am no stranger to criticism ITT in fairness. Like most who have followed for a while, it's been an incredibly useful thread for learning about a variety of sports, pursuits, betting angles and how bookies work. Some of the wise mud the elders have thrown has stuck but I'm still a comparative mug, I'm sure.

The forum and this thread have been very quiet of late, so, yes, there have been one or two speculative first touchdown tips over the past couple of months among a majority of fairly well researched NFL bets. I won't lie about that. But they've been for very small stakes in Fred terms (£10 when Fred has a notional bankroll of £6k) and designed to encourage feedback. They have always at least had some logic behind them (defensive weakness v position, positive training reports, injury to opposition player, etc).

I'd never stick something up here in an NFL market that was a complete finger in the air job. Certainly not as a recommend. People who follow the thread will choose whether to follow anyway but it should be patently obvious how strongly I fancy something.

As for the feedback, keep it coming. In its heyday, this thread was a hive of activity and people from all fields and levels of knowledge contributed. If you missed a day you could have 30 pages to catch up on when you got back.

And that brings me to the last bit: no one should get laughed out of town for anything. Tikay's made his millions, yes, but there have been over a hundred tipsters and counting. If someone says "let's back Messi first goal", the thread was at its best when people explained why the price matters and that the bookies probably have heard of the little fella and set the price accordingly, so it was unlikely to be a profitable bet. No judgment or nastiness about it; the thread is the sum of its parts after all. The more the merrier.

That was longwinded - sorry - but you get the point. Keep the thoughts and reasoning coming and let's make good bets.

[Tal]

Also, am I the only one who wants to see Lewis and Wright either scrap or kiss?

No room for this passive aggressive nonsense.

[TL900]

Also, am I the only one who wants to see Lewis and Wright either scrap or kiss?

No room for this passive aggressive nonsense.

Id like Peter to hit a fucking double first...

[Tal]

Also, am I the only one who wants to see Lewis and Wright either scrap or kiss?

No room for this passive aggressive nonsense.

Id like Peter to hit a fucking double first...

[arbboy]

wolfie getting close to max bet material at 9/4.  Kim turning into the next big pdc talking horse.