Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Someone just lifted up my rock and told me I'm needed again because it's the Chinese GP this weekend.

Had a look through the markets, and there's not that much around at the moment, here are my initial suggestions:

Top Six Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 5/1 with tote and paddys. Toro Rosso are quick, and while they are (possibly) outsiders for the top six, they shouldn't be as high as 5/1. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 17/11 with Beewin. Above evens, really .. who is doing these prices?! Suggest £50. Also, £5 bets on Palmer (10/1 with SkyeBet/Beewin), Magnussen (11/1 with Beewin), Ericsson (16/1 with various), Nasr (20/1, Beewin), Wehrlein (20/1 with StanShames).

That is a lot of drivers, but all those prices are far too high. Given the new tyre rules, on a track surface as abrasive as Shanghai, we probably will see many surprises. There is a lot of variation this weekend on pricing for a points finish actually. Take a look at Magnussen's prices in particular:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/points-finish

Thanks for the early-doors tips Peter. I wondered if you've done any analysis of the profitability/ROI of your pre-qualifying tips versus the ones you do shortly before the race itself? It seems a lot can change before the off (weather, reliability etc) so it must be harder to spot value pre-qualifying?

No. However, that's a very interesting point actually. Although, I must admit, I thought the opposite. You're right that it's harder to predict pre-qualifying, but the also means the prices are wilder. The bookies are, quite simply, utter rubbish, when it comes to pricing up F1. However, this improves drastically as the weekend progresses and they start to see some relevant results.

[sonour]

Arboy is like the Blonde Donald Trump.

You see what he is on about, and think, yes this guy has a point, but the arrogant manner he uses to tell you means you could never like the bloke. He claims he doesn't care about being popular, because he knows he is right and he has loads of money.

Then because he keeps on telling you how great he is and how correct he is all the fricking time,  you just think you would just rather be worse off than give the guy the opportunity to tell you how right he was again. You know his hotels are great, but you don't want to put a penny more in his pocket.

So, as people grow tired of hearing Donald tell everyone how right he is all the time and many people start to lose interst, he finds an opportunity to pick on another minority with force and fury to grab back the headlines, so the supporters yell 'Go Donald',  while the rest of us just sit back, shaking our heads, thinking 'This guy could have been the solution, but as he acts like such a dick all the time, I just can't listen any more'

You'd rather be worse off and not listen ?

I wouldn't .

Not enough credit given to Arb for the money he gives all of us.

I can put up with a bit of name calling.

What does that make me ?

[Tal]

Not been around much this week, so missed this:

if anyone has 888 or unibet

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/first-pick

the rams have done a blockbuster trade sending 2 x 1 2 x 2 2 x 3 to the tians to get to the first pick in the draft in a fortnight

this is 100% for a QB the rams dont have one, decent team aside from that, and want to start winning in LA with a "face of the franchise"

tunsil was the assumed pick for the titans, the UK fixed odds market hasn't woken up to this trade

you can put your life savings (don't but you get my drift) on wentz at 13/2 if you can get on

If you still feel the same way, Wentz is 5/4 with Patrick (the only one back up this morning, I believe). 13/2 was a terrific price, of course. Top spot.

As I posted on the NFL Thread yesterday, though, Jared Goff seems like the smarter play for LA to me and he is the favourite with Mr Power. Not a recommend at 4/6 tho.

[BiloxiDesire]

Morning all, I've got a couple of questions maybe some Blonde's could help with .

1. Coral do an offer on 3-ball & 2-ball Golf fourfolds (but I'm sure this question applies to more of these similar offers), where if one leg of your fourfold fails then you get your stake back as a free bet. Most of the time Coral are not top priced on these fourfolds, what price in terms of % hit is it worth taking for the bonus of having stake returned as a freebet if one leg lets you down?

2. I've opened a spread betting account with Spreadex and am slowly dabbling with the Spread markets (only with very low stakes), I've now qualified for one of these free bets http://www.spreadex.com/sports/promotions/sports-account-opening-offer/. Which is the best value one to take? My betting is usually fairly limited to Golf, Tennis & Football so it would probably be out of those 3 in terms of my knowledge. Each one has fairly limited potential in terms of winning, Golf could probably be the largest winner in term of points but because the stake is lower it's unlikely to make as much profit as the football or tennis?

Any advice welcomed.

[horseplayer]

Don't think the post last night was the worst I have seen from arb.....

However as mere and adz say it's the constant repetition about how much money you make how great you are how everyone else is lolstupid that just gets tiresome.

This is not or was never intended to be a thread for just professional punters to backslap each others massive egos. Without the new blood the thread will die.

[tikay]

Arboy is like the Blonde Donald Trump.

You see what he is on about, and think, yes this guy has a point, but the arrogant manner he uses to tell you means you could never like the bloke. He claims he doesn't care about being popular, because he knows he is right and he has loads of money.

Then because he keeps on telling you how great he is and how correct he is all the fricking time,  you just think you would just rather be worse off than give the guy the opportunity to tell you how right he was again. You know his hotels are great, but you don't want to put a penny more in his pocket.

So, as people grow tired of hearing Donald tell everyone how right he is all the time and many people start to lose interst, he finds an opportunity to pick on another minority with force and fury to grab back the headlines, so the supporters yell 'Go Donald',  while the rest of us just sit back, shaking our heads, thinking 'This guy could have been the solution, but as he acts like such a dick all the time, I just can't listen any more'

You'd rather be worse off and not listen ?

I wouldn't .

Not enough credit given to Arb for the money he gives all of us.

I can put up with a bit of name calling.

What does that make me ?

Morning Lisa,

That my be fine for you, & perhaps others, but not for everyone, some of us don't like to be demeaned, insulted & embarrassed for posting an opinion.

ALL opinions are valid - we read them, & then put them into the equation to form our opinion.

There is no shortage of gratitude to Argue for the value he brings us, & I'm certainly grateful for it, as are many others. However, keeping this place civil, a place where readers & contributors can feel comfortable, & enjoy themselves, & post freely without fear of being bullied & mocked, is equally important, arguably more important. It's not all about money, the thread, & blonde, is about people having a little fun, relaxing, & chilling.

I do not want to have my name on a thread where people are scared to post for fear of being called out & harassed, & I'm not going to allow it to happen. Manners may not matter to everyone, & that's fine, but they do to me.

My apologies to fatcatstu, & I hope you keep posting. 

[horseplayer]

Morning all, I've got a couple of questions maybe some Blonde's could help with .

1. Coral do an offer on 3-ball & 2-ball Golf fourfolds (but I'm sure this question applies to more of these similar offers), where if one leg of your fourfold fails then you get your stake back as a free bet. Most of the time Coral are not top priced on these fourfolds, what price in terms of % hit is it worth taking for the bonus of having stake returned as a freebet if one leg lets you down?

2. I've opened a spread betting account with Spreadex and am slowly dabbling with the Spread markets (only with very low stakes), I've now qualified for one of these free bets http://www.spreadex.com/sports/promotions/sports-account-opening-offer/. Which is the best value one to take? My betting is usually fairly limited to Golf, Tennis & Football so it would probably be out of those 3 in terms of my knowledge. Each one has fairly limited potential in terms of winning, Golf could probably be the largest winner in term of points but because the stake is lower it's unlikely to make as much profit as the football or tennis?

Any advice welcomed.

Good questions

.
1. If you can get top price then I would suggest that would work out better long term  suppose the question is would you back the 4fold without the offer? Sure the maths lads can give a better answer.

2. Not sure on this

[DungBeetle]

Morning all, I've got a couple of questions maybe some Blonde's could help with .

1. Coral do an offer on 3-ball & 2-ball Golf fourfolds (but I'm sure this question applies to more of these similar offers), where if one leg of your fourfold fails then you get your stake back as a free bet. Most of the time Coral are not top priced on these fourfolds, what price in terms of % hit is it worth taking for the bonus of having stake returned as a freebet if one leg lets you down?

2. I've opened a spread betting account with Spreadex and am slowly dabbling with the Spread markets (only with very low stakes), I've now qualified for one of these free bets http://www.spreadex.com/sports/promotions/sports-account-opening-offer/. Which is the best value one to take? My betting is usually fairly limited to Golf, Tennis & Football so it would probably be out of those 3 in terms of my knowledge. Each one has fairly limited potential in terms of winning, Golf could probably be the largest winner in term of points but because the stake is lower it's unlikely to make as much profit as the football or tennis?

Any advice welcomed.

For the spreads you want the most volatility as they have given you an option so not the tennis one. The golf one isn't bad if you pick a steady Eddie verses someone who occasionally has nightmare rounds.  You also want to pick a hard course as you get bigger spread of scoring in my experience.  The cricket one is decent as well.  You need to sell at about 70/80 and hope they lose early wickets and potentially win 30 points. At any rate I'd give the football, rugby and tennis ones a miss.

[BiloxiDesire]

Morning all, I've got a couple of questions maybe some Blonde's could help with .

1. Coral do an offer on 3-ball & 2-ball Golf fourfolds (but I'm sure this question applies to more of these similar offers), where if one leg of your fourfold fails then you get your stake back as a free bet. Most of the time Coral are not top priced on these fourfolds, what price in terms of % hit is it worth taking for the bonus of having stake returned as a freebet if one leg lets you down?

2. I've opened a spread betting account with Spreadex and am slowly dabbling with the Spread markets (only with very low stakes), I've now qualified for one of these free bets http://www.spreadex.com/sports/promotions/sports-account-opening-offer/. Which is the best value one to take? My betting is usually fairly limited to Golf, Tennis & Football so it would probably be out of those 3 in terms of my knowledge. Each one has fairly limited potential in terms of winning, Golf could probably be the largest winner in term of points but because the stake is lower it's unlikely to make as much profit as the football or tennis?

Any advice welcomed.

Good questions

.
1. If you can get top price then I would suggest that would work out better long term  suppose the question is would you back the 4fold without the offer? Sure the maths lads can give a better answer.

2. Not sure on this

Thanks, I would be doing the 4 fold without the offer, I'll price up the fourfold I'll do for the PGA tournament this afternoon and work out the difference between best price and Coral and see what that gives me.

For the spreads you want the most volatility as they have given you an option so not the tennis one. The golf one isn't bad if you pick a steady Eddie verses someone who occasionally has nightmare rounds.  You also want to pick a hard course as you get bigger spread of scoring in my experience.  The cricket one is decent as well.  You need to sell at about 70/80 and hope they lose early wickets and potentially win 30 points. At any rate I'd give the football, rugby and tennis ones a miss.

Thanks, that makes sense. I think I'll go for the golf one as I have a bit of knowledge with that compared to Cricket.

[Doobs]

Morning all, I've got a couple of questions maybe some Blonde's could help with .

1. Coral do an offer on 3-ball & 2-ball Golf fourfolds (but I'm sure this question applies to more of these similar offers), where if one leg of your fourfold fails then you get your stake back as a free bet. Most of the time Coral are not top priced on these fourfolds, what price in terms of % hit is it worth taking for the bonus of having stake returned as a freebet if one leg lets you down?

2. I've opened a spread betting account with Spreadex and am slowly dabbling with the Spread markets (only with very low stakes), I've now qualified for one of these free bets http://www.spreadex.com/sports/promotions/sports-account-opening-offer/. Which is the best value one to take? My betting is usually fairly limited to Golf, Tennis & Football so it would probably be out of those 3 in terms of my knowledge. Each one has fairly limited potential in terms of winning, Golf could probably be the largest winner in term of points but because the stake is lower it's unlikely to make as much profit as the football or tennis?

Any advice welcomed.

Good questions

.
1. If you can get top price then I would suggest that would work out better long term  suppose the question is would you back the 4fold without the offer? Sure the maths lads can give a better answer.

2. Not sure on this

Thanks, I would be doing the 4 fold without the offer, I'll price up the fourfold I'll do for the PGA tournament this afternoon and work out the difference between best price and Coral and see what that gives me.

For the spreads you want the most volatility as they have given you an option so not the tennis one. The golf one isn't bad if you pick a steady Eddie verses someone who occasionally has nightmare rounds.  You also want to pick a hard course as you get bigger spread of scoring in my experience.  The cricket one is decent as well.  You need to sell at about 70/80 and hope they lose early wickets and potentially win 30 points. At any rate I'd give the football, rugby and tennis ones a miss.

Thanks, that makes sense. I think I'll go for the golf one as I have a bit of knowledge with that compared to Cricket.

The 4 fold thing looks to be pretty bad to me.  If you picked 4 golfers at evens and that was the right price then the combined odds are 15/1.  You aren't often finding a free bet which has a value of 100% of your bet amount, so the best you can do is convert your 15/1 to something with a value nearer 16/1.  

From what you say Koral isn't likely to be ever top price on all 4 golfers.  By taking evens on a couple of golfers rather than 11/10 elsewhere, you have already lost something like the same value than you gained on the offer.

Cliffs.  Offer is crap.  

[BiloxiDesire]

Morning all, I've got a couple of questions maybe some Blonde's could help with .

1. Coral do an offer on 3-ball & 2-ball Golf fourfolds (but I'm sure this question applies to more of these similar offers), where if one leg of your fourfold fails then you get your stake back as a free bet. Most of the time Coral are not top priced on these fourfolds, what price in terms of % hit is it worth taking for the bonus of having stake returned as a freebet if one leg lets you down?

2. I've opened a spread betting account with Spreadex and am slowly dabbling with the Spread markets (only with very low stakes), I've now qualified for one of these free bets http://www.spreadex.com/sports/promotions/sports-account-opening-offer/. Which is the best value one to take? My betting is usually fairly limited to Golf, Tennis & Football so it would probably be out of those 3 in terms of my knowledge. Each one has fairly limited potential in terms of winning, Golf could probably be the largest winner in term of points but because the stake is lower it's unlikely to make as much profit as the football or tennis?

Any advice welcomed.

Good questions

.
1. If you can get top price then I would suggest that would work out better long term  suppose the question is would you back the 4fold without the offer? Sure the maths lads can give a better answer.

2. Not sure on this

Thanks, I would be doing the 4 fold without the offer, I'll price up the fourfold I'll do for the PGA tournament this afternoon and work out the difference between best price and Coral and see what that gives me.

For the spreads you want the most volatility as they have given you an option so not the tennis one. The golf one isn't bad if you pick a steady Eddie verses someone who occasionally has nightmare rounds.  You also want to pick a hard course as you get bigger spread of scoring in my experience.  The cricket one is decent as well.  You need to sell at about 70/80 and hope they lose early wickets and potentially win 30 points. At any rate I'd give the football, rugby and tennis ones a miss.

Thanks, that makes sense. I think I'll go for the golf one as I have a bit of knowledge with that compared to Cricket.

The 4 fold thing looks to be pretty bad to me.  If you picked 4 golfers at evens and that was the right price then the combined odds are 15/1.  You aren't often finding a free bet which has a value of 100% of your bet amount, so the best you can do is convert your 15/1 to something with a value nearer 16/1.  

From what you say Koral isn't likely to be ever top price on all 4 golfers.  By taking evens on a couple of golfers rather than 11/10 elsewhere, you have already lost something like the same value than you gained on the offer.

Cliffs.  Offer is crap.  

Cheers, I've just picked out a fourfold for this afternoon's PGA golf, best price combined is Betfair at 42.85, Coral's price is 37.35, so quite a difference.

[Doobs]

Arboy is like the Blonde Donald Trump.

You see what he is on about, and think, yes this guy has a point, but the arrogant manner he uses to tell you means you could never like the bloke. He claims he doesn't care about being popular, because he knows he is right and he has loads of money.

Then because he keeps on telling you how great he is and how correct he is all the fricking time,  you just think you would just rather be worse off than give the guy the opportunity to tell you how right he was again. You know his hotels are great, but you don't want to put a penny more in his pocket.

So, as people grow tired of hearing Donald tell everyone how right he is all the time and many people start to lose interst, he finds an opportunity to pick on another minority with force and fury to grab back the headlines, so the supporters yell 'Go Donald',  while the rest of us just sit back, shaking our heads, thinking 'This guy could have been the solution, but as he acts like such a dick all the time, I just can't listen any more'

You'd rather be worse off and not listen ?

I wouldn't .

Not enough credit given to Arb for the money he gives all of us.

I can put up with a bit of name calling.

What does that make me ?

Morning Lisa,

That my be fine for you, & perhaps others, but not for everyone, some of us don't like to be demeaned, insulted & embarrassed for posting an opinion.

ALL opinions are valid - we read them, & then put them into the equation to form our opinion.

There is no shortage of gratitude to Argue for the value he brings us, & I'm certainly grateful for it, as are many others. However, keeping this place civil, a place where readers & contributors can feel comfortable, & enjoy themselves, & post freely without fear of being bullied & mocked, is equally important, arguably more important. It's not all about money, the thread, & blonde, is about people having a little fun, relaxing, & chilling.

I do not want to have my name on a thread where people are scared to post for fear of being called out & harassed, & I'm not going to allow it to happen. Manners may not matter to everyone, & that's fine, but they do to me.

My apologies to fatcatstu, & I hope you keep posting. 

Arbboy has clearly gone over the top here, but as too often in these "debates", we have forgotten what the original point was.

The link pointed to a well argued piece that Bolton are too big on Saturday.  We know that it won't happen often, and if is clearly a hold your nose and bet anyway kind of bet.  You can only get on with Victor now, and you can't beat it on Betfair. Suggest we put £25 on Bolton vs Boro at 12/1 with the Gibraltan surrender monkeys. 

[BorntoBubble]

Morning all, I've got a couple of questions maybe some Blonde's could help with .

1. Coral do an offer on 3-ball & 2-ball Golf fourfolds (but I'm sure this question applies to more of these similar offers), where if one leg of your fourfold fails then you get your stake back as a free bet. Most of the time Coral are not top priced on these fourfolds, what price in terms of % hit is it worth taking for the bonus of having stake returned as a freebet if one leg lets you down?

2. I've opened a spread betting account with Spreadex and am slowly dabbling with the Spread markets (only with very low stakes), I've now qualified for one of these free bets http://www.spreadex.com/sports/promotions/sports-account-opening-offer/. Which is the best value one to take? My betting is usually fairly limited to Golf, Tennis & Football so it would probably be out of those 3 in terms of my knowledge. Each one has fairly limited potential in terms of winning, Golf could probably be the largest winner in term of points but because the stake is lower it's unlikely to make as much profit as the football or tennis?

Any advice welcomed.

Good questions

.
1. If you can get top price then I would suggest that would work out better long term  suppose the question is would you back the 4fold without the offer? Sure the maths lads can give a better answer.

2. Not sure on this

Thanks, I would be doing the 4 fold without the offer, I'll price up the fourfold I'll do for the PGA tournament this afternoon and work out the difference between best price and Coral and see what that gives me.

For the spreads you want the most volatility as they have given you an option so not the tennis one. The golf one isn't bad if you pick a steady Eddie verses someone who occasionally has nightmare rounds.  You also want to pick a hard course as you get bigger spread of scoring in my experience.  The cricket one is decent as well.  You need to sell at about 70/80 and hope they lose early wickets and potentially win 30 points. At any rate I'd give the football, rugby and tennis ones a miss.

Thanks, that makes sense. I think I'll go for the golf one as I have a bit of knowledge with that compared to Cricket.

The 4 fold thing looks to be pretty bad to me.  If you picked 4 golfers at evens and that was the right price then the combined odds are 15/1.  You aren't often finding a free bet which has a value of 100% of your bet amount, so the best you can do is convert your 15/1 to something with a value nearer 16/1.  

From what you say Koral isn't likely to be ever top price on all 4 golfers.  By taking evens on a couple of golfers rather than 11/10 elsewhere, you have already lost something like the same value than you gained on the offer.

Cliffs.  Offer is crap.  

Cheers, I've just picked out a fourfold for this afternoon's PGA golf, best price combined is Betfair at 42.85, Coral's price is 37.35, so quite a difference.

Without doing any major maths I would be very surprised if coral+ offer was anywhere close to betfair with no offer.

Obviously if coral come out best priced and you get the offer then that is just a bonus ball

[TightEnd]

Someone just lifted up my rock and told me I'm needed again because it's the Chinese GP this weekend.

Had a look through the markets, and there's not that much around at the moment, here are my initial suggestions:

Top Six Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 5/1 with tote and paddys. Toro Rosso are quick, and while they are (possibly) outsiders for the top six, they shouldn't be as high as 5/1. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 17/11 with Beewin. Above evens, really .. who is doing these prices?! Suggest £50. Also, £5 bets on Palmer (10/1 with SkyeBet/Beewin), Magnussen (11/1 with Beewin), Ericsson (16/1 with various), Nasr (20/1, Beewin), Wehrlein (20/1 with StanShames).

That is a lot of drivers, but all those prices are far too high. Given the new tyre rules, on a track surface as abrasive as Shanghai, we probably will see many surprises. There is a lot of variation this weekend on pricing for a points finish actually. Take a look at Magnussen's prices in particular:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/points-finish

i did look at these but none were at places we could use, namely paddy, stan, sky, bwin, tote

[DMorgan]

Someone just lifted up my rock and told me I'm needed again because it's the Chinese GP this weekend.

Had a look through the markets, and there's not that much around at the moment, here are my initial suggestions:

Top Six Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 5/1 with tote and paddys. Toro Rosso are quick, and while they are (possibly) outsiders for the top six, they shouldn't be as high as 5/1. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 17/11 with Beewin. Above evens, really .. who is doing these prices?! Suggest £50. Also, £5 bets on Palmer (10/1 with SkyeBet/Beewin), Magnussen (11/1 with Beewin), Ericsson (16/1 with various), Nasr (20/1, Beewin), Wehrlein (20/1 with StanShames).

That is a lot of drivers, but all those prices are far too high. Given the new tyre rules, on a track surface as abrasive as Shanghai, we probably will see many surprises. There is a lot of variation this weekend on pricing for a points finish actually. Take a look at Magnussen's prices in particular:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/points-finish

i did look at these but none were at places we could use, namely paddy, stan, sky, bwin, tote

Missed the 17/11, on at 14/10, £50 if Fred wants it

Fred can also have the £5 recced on Nasr and Ericssen at the prices and Palmer at 11/1

I faded the rest as I only have bwin