Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Someone just lifted up my rock and told me I'm needed again because it's the Chinese GP this weekend.

Had a look through the markets, and there's not that much around at the moment, here are my initial suggestions:

Top Six Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 5/1 with tote and paddys. Toro Rosso are quick, and while they are (possibly) outsiders for the top six, they shouldn't be as high as 5/1. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 17/11 with Beewin. Above evens, really .. who is doing these prices?! Suggest £50. Also, £5 bets on Palmer (10/1 with SkyeBet/Beewin), Magnussen (11/1 with Beewin), Ericsson (16/1 with various), Nasr (20/1, Beewin), Wehrlein (20/1 with StanShames).

That is a lot of drivers, but all those prices are far too high. Given the new tyre rules, on a track surface as abrasive as Shanghai, we probably will see many surprises. There is a lot of variation this weekend on pricing for a points finish actually. Take a look at Magnussen's prices in particular:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/points-finish

i did look at these but none were at places we could use, namely paddy, stan, sky, bwin, tote

Missed the 17/11, on at 14/10, £50 if Fred wants it

Fred can also have the £5 recced on Nasr and Ericssen at the prices and Palmer at 11/1

I faded the rest as I only have bwin

ok thank you

[tikay]

Someone just lifted up my rock and told me I'm needed again because it's the Chinese GP this weekend.

Had a look through the markets, and there's not that much around at the moment, here are my initial suggestions:

Top Six Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 5/1 with tote and paddys. Toro Rosso are quick, and while they are (possibly) outsiders for the top six, they shouldn't be as high as 5/1. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 17/11 with Beewin. Above evens, really .. who is doing these prices?! Suggest £50. Also, £5 bets on Palmer (10/1 with SkyeBet/Beewin), Magnussen (11/1 with Beewin), Ericsson (16/1 with various), Nasr (20/1, Beewin), Wehrlein (20/1 with StanShames).

That is a lot of drivers, but all those prices are far too high. Given the new tyre rules, on a track surface as abrasive as Shanghai, we probably will see many surprises. There is a lot of variation this weekend on pricing for a points finish actually. Take a look at Magnussen's prices in particular:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/points-finish

i did look at these but none were at places we could use, namely paddy, stan, sky, bwin, tote

Missed the 17/11, on at 14/10, £50 if Fred wants it

Fred can also have the £5 recced on Nasr and Ericssen at the prices and Palmer at 11/1

I faded the rest as I only have bwin

Thanks Dan, & Tighty has accepted, so we are on & BOOKED.

Settle up after the race, that OK? You may need to remind me though. Memory issues & all that.

[TightEnd]

Not been around much this week, so missed this:

if anyone has 888 or unibet

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/first-pick

the rams have done a blockbuster trade sending 2 x 1 2 x 2 2 x 3 to the tians to get to the first pick in the draft in a fortnight

this is 100% for a QB the rams dont have one, decent team aside from that, and want to start winning in LA with a "face of the franchise"

tunsil was the assumed pick for the titans, the UK fixed odds market hasn't woken up to this trade

you can put your life savings (don't but you get my drift) on wentz at 13/2 if you can get on

If you still feel the same way, Wentz is 5/4 with Patrick (the only one back up this morning, I believe). 13/2 was a terrific price, of course. Top spot.

As I posted on the NFL Thread yesterday, though, Jared Goff seems like the smarter play for LA to me and he is the favourite with Mr Power. Not a recommend at 4/6 tho.

Wentz got leaked yesterday. The Rams are now planting goff rumours

Would be amazed if it wasn't Wentz. I understand the California kid factor and Wentz seems like the higher risk choice, but Wentz is their man according to all the really good people i read and listen to

[TightEnd]

the world snooker championship begins tomorrow

i have written it up elsewhere for later but a couple of ideas for here

1 The fourth quarter

Allen v Mann
Perry v Wilson
White v Baird
Selby v Mlkins

4th Qtr prices are

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/4th-quarter-winner

Qualification took place over the last week and was live streamed on worldsnooker's you tube page. I watched slugs of it on a second screen as i worked, in part because i wanted to back some 1st round underdogs over the next few days. (basic premise, depth of talent in the sport is greater, even the top players don't play much best of 19 snooker, the qualifiers all have to play three best of 19s to make it, will be tuned up and some seeds may be caught cold)

depth of talent - the 16 qualifiers include two world champions, 5 ranking event winners and the likes of Ding and Liang (who finalled the UK). not many easy draws for the seeds this year, certainly compared to a decade ago

Anyway Kyren Wilson (won shanghai earlier in the season his first ranking event) played Matthew Stevens in Rd 3Q, and beat him 10-6 with the best performance i saw in Q especially as Matthew was really really trying which hasn't always been the case in his career (he was declared bankrupt six months ago, needed to qualify badly £13k for making the crucible, potential route back to top 16 etc)

the fourth quarter is interesting

Selby has withdrawn from the last two tournaments (Manchester, China) with undisclosed personal issues. He's going to be fully prepared for this? Not sure, and even with his unorthodox technique he's had some technical problems (cutting across balls on long pots) this season. A measure of the doubts around Selby are that he is 10-1 for this tournament, having been champion 2 years ago.

Allen is second favourite in the quarter and recently won his first ranking event in the UK. I think i would have him favourite over this version of Selby in the quarter but definitely beatable with some temperament issues when it doesn't go his way

Wlson has drawn Joe Perry, who typically does well at the Crucible (often salvaging disappointing seasons) but its going to be tight. Wilson is a very marginal dog to Perry in the betting. If he replicates his qualifying form, i would have him favourite. 

White just about remained in the top 16 after a poor season. Not much difference between him ranked 15th and Wilson 19th

Milkins, Baird, debutant Mann shouldn't win the quarter

If we accept that Selby has issues and can be opposed at 5/4 to win the quarter the obvious place to start is Allen at 5/2 but Wilson at 10-1 really stands out. Seriously impressive young player in a wide open quarter

Recommend £10 at 10-1 Kyren Wilson to win the 4th Qtr Sportingbet


 
2 Stuart Bingham begins his defence against Ali Carter. Carter is 13/8 to beat Bingham and has a decent shot of doing so imo

This season Carter has hit 23 centuries. in three rounds of qualifying he hit 5 centuries (47 frames total)

Those 23 centuries are one every 14-15 frames (Bingham for reference 1 century every 24 frames this season)

This should be 10-7 or 10-8 either way. shouldn't be one sided, certainly 15 frames +

Bet365 offer us (well not TfT unless someone helps) Evens over 0.5 centuries tomorrow Carter

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/stuart-bingham-v-ali-carter/total-ali-carter-centuries

an alternative if we can't get that would be sportingbet 11/10 +1.5 total match centuries

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/stuart-bingham-v-ali-carter/total-centuries

Recommend £50 over 0.5 centuries Carter Evens Bet365 or if we can't
Recommend £35 over 1.5 match centuries 11/10 Sportingbet

[tikay]

^^^^

Yes please Tighty, go ahead afaic.

If anyone else has some views on the World Snooker, be good to see them.

[TightEnd]

Kyren Wilson World Snooker Championship 4th Quarter Winner
10/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £110.00

will wait on the other one to see if bet365 help is forthcoming. its the bet i prefer of the two bingham v carter bets

[tikay]

Kyren Wilson World Snooker Championship 4th Quarter Winner
10/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £110.00

will wait on the other one to see if bet365 help is forthcoming. its the bet i prefer of the two bingham v carter bets

Thanks Tighty, loved the way you sold it, too. The info may be duff, but you sold it well.  

[Knottikay]

My World Snooker bets to be lambasted and probably ignored

Sky are doing a Sunday match accumulator on Walden/Ronnie/M.White & M. Williams all to win @ 5/2. I think this is a great price for those who can get on.

Highest Tournament Break. Interesting one this. I can see Ronnie trying to 'prove a point' and I think he will go all out for a maximum break in the Worlds. 4/1 with Sky again. He is also the same price to make a 147.

My pick to win overall (if the real Ronnie doesn't turn up) is Trump @ 7/1. He has the talent and I think he is maturing more with every tournament he plays. This could be his year. Shaun Murphy also a good e/w price @ 12/1 (A Murphy/Trump final is 28/1)

  

[bergeroo]

German lower league football

Not for fred but in case anyone want to follow me in or put this in an acca.

TSV Altenholz travel to Olbenburger SV in the Schleswig Holstein League on Saturday. This is the fifth tier of German football, below the third tier the pyramid operates regional leagues.

Oldenburger SV are the team representing the northern island of Fehmarn on the Danish border (although they play just over the bridge on the mainland) - a good friend of mine is from the island.

Last week Oldenburger SV won an entertaining 4-3 match with 9 men after being 3-0 up. Those two players are now suspended. Importantly, one of them is their keeper and I have word that their reserve keeper isn't up to much. The two games he has played this season have ended up heavy defeats. Added to this are injuries including their new signing for the second part of the season, a Syrian refugee who has been playing well.

The two teams have pretty similar records in the league with SV being a few points ahead. Altenholz are on a 4 game winning run and have won their last two away games 3-0 with an aggregate of 11-1 over the four matches.

For balance they lost their first three games after the winter break so they are 4-3 overall. Personally in the lower leagues I consider form after the winter break very important compared with the overall table as teams often do a lot of restructuring over the winter, with players coming and going and so forth.

356 price up Altenholz at 8/5 and I like that bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/lower-leagues/oldenburger-sv-v-tsv-altenholz/winner

I would suggest keeping stakes small or putting it in your Saturday acca.

There are a few other German lower league bets I like this week but I like this one the best

[DMorgan]

Someone just lifted up my rock and told me I'm needed again because it's the Chinese GP this weekend.

Had a look through the markets, and there's not that much around at the moment, here are my initial suggestions:

Top Six Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 5/1 with tote and paddys. Toro Rosso are quick, and while they are (possibly) outsiders for the top six, they shouldn't be as high as 5/1. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 17/11 with Beewin. Above evens, really .. who is doing these prices?! Suggest £50. Also, £5 bets on Palmer (10/1 with SkyeBet/Beewin), Magnussen (11/1 with Beewin), Ericsson (16/1 with various), Nasr (20/1, Beewin), Wehrlein (20/1 with StanShames).

That is a lot of drivers, but all those prices are far too high. Given the new tyre rules, on a track surface as abrasive as Shanghai, we probably will see many surprises. There is a lot of variation this weekend on pricing for a points finish actually. Take a look at Magnussen's prices in particular:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/points-finish

i did look at these but none were at places we could use, namely paddy, stan, sky, bwin, tote

Missed the 17/11, on at 14/10, £50 if Fred wants it

Fred can also have the £5 recced on Nasr and Ericssen at the prices and Palmer at 11/1

I faded the rest as I only have bwin

Thanks Dan, & Tighty has accepted, so we are on & BOOKED.

Settle up after the race, that OK? You may need to remind me though. Memory issues & all that.

Safe  

[TightEnd]

My World Snooker bets to be lambasted and probably ignored

Sky are doing a Sunday match accumulator on Walden/Ronnie/M.White & M. Williams all to win @ 5/2. I think this is a great price for those who can get on.

Highest Tournament Break. Interesting one this. I can see Ronnie trying to 'prove a point' and I think he will go all out for a maximum break in the Worlds. 4/1 with Sky again. He is also the same price to make a 147.

My pick to win overall (if the real Ronnie doesn't turn up) is Trump @ 7/1. He has the talent and I think he is maturing more with every tournament he plays. This could be his year. Shaun Murphy also a good e/w price @ 12/1 (A Murphy/Trump final is 28/1)

 

Trump has to beat Wenbo, Ding (probably) and Robertson (probably) to win his quarter

Would certainly be an underdog to Robertson in the quarters

Tough. Would want more than 7-1, but that is a view influenced by backing him for several years and watching him lack concentration and maturity at several times, and one tournament win recently doesn't change that imo

[RickBFA]

Kyren Wilson World Snooker Championship 4th Quarter Winner
10/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £110.00

will wait on the other one to see if bet365 help is forthcoming. its the bet i prefer of the two bingham v carter bets

£20 of the stake is on for the Carter over 0.5 centuries at evens on my b366 account.

From memory, there is a small balance owed to me from months ago. We can settle up whenever suits Tikay.

[Doobs]

Arboy is like the Blonde Donald Trump.

You see what he is on about, and think, yes this guy has a point, but the arrogant manner he uses to tell you means you could never like the bloke. He claims he doesn't care about being popular, because he knows he is right and he has loads of money.

Then because he keeps on telling you how great he is and how correct he is all the fricking time,  you just think you would just rather be worse off than give the guy the opportunity to tell you how right he was again. You know his hotels are great, but you don't want to put a penny more in his pocket.

So, as people grow tired of hearing Donald tell everyone how right he is all the time and many people start to lose interst, he finds an opportunity to pick on another minority with force and fury to grab back the headlines, so the supporters yell 'Go Donald',  while the rest of us just sit back, shaking our heads, thinking 'This guy could have been the solution, but as he acts like such a dick all the time, I just can't listen any more'

You'd rather be worse off and not listen ?

I wouldn't .

Not enough credit given to Arb for the money he gives all of us.

I can put up with a bit of name calling.

What does that make me ?

Morning Lisa,

That my be fine for you, & perhaps others, but not for everyone, some of us don't like to be demeaned, insulted & embarrassed for posting an opinion.

ALL opinions are valid - we read them, & then put them into the equation to form our opinion.

There is no shortage of gratitude to Argue for the value he brings us, & I'm certainly grateful for it, as are many others. However, keeping this place civil, a place where readers & contributors can feel comfortable, & enjoy themselves, & post freely without fear of being bullied & mocked, is equally important, arguably more important. It's not all about money, the thread, & blonde, is about people having a little fun, relaxing, & chilling.

I do not want to have my name on a thread where people are scared to post for fear of being called out & harassed, & I'm not going to allow it to happen. Manners may not matter to everyone, & that's fine, but they do to me.

My apologies to fatcatstu, & I hope you keep posting. 

Arbboy has clearly gone over the top here, but as too often in these "debates", we have forgotten what the original point was.

The link pointed to a well argued piece that Bolton are too big on Saturday.  We know that it won't happen often, and if is clearly a hold your nose and bet anyway kind of bet.  You can only get on with Victor now, and you can't beat it on Betfair. Suggest we put £25 on Bolton vs Boro at 12/1 with the Gibraltan surrender monkeys. 

Guess we missed this then. 

[TightEnd]

Sky are doing a Sunday match accumulator on Walden/Ronnie/M.White & M. Williams all to win @ 5/2. I think this is a great price for those who can get on.

 

we can't use sky obviously, but at best odds the acca for the four names pays over 5/2, i think

[TightEnd]

Arboy is like the Blonde Donald Trump.

You see what he is on about, and think, yes this guy has a point, but the arrogant manner he uses to tell you means you could never like the bloke. He claims he doesn't care about being popular, because he knows he is right and he has loads of money.

Then because he keeps on telling you how great he is and how correct he is all the fricking time,  you just think you would just rather be worse off than give the guy the opportunity to tell you how right he was again. You know his hotels are great, but you don't want to put a penny more in his pocket.

So, as people grow tired of hearing Donald tell everyone how right he is all the time and many people start to lose interst, he finds an opportunity to pick on another minority with force and fury to grab back the headlines, so the supporters yell 'Go Donald',  while the rest of us just sit back, shaking our heads, thinking 'This guy could have been the solution, but as he acts like such a dick all the time, I just can't listen any more'

You'd rather be worse off and not listen ?

I wouldn't .

Not enough credit given to Arb for the money he gives all of us.

I can put up with a bit of name calling.

What does that make me ?

Morning Lisa,

That my be fine for you, & perhaps others, but not for everyone, some of us don't like to be demeaned, insulted & embarrassed for posting an opinion.

ALL opinions are valid - we read them, & then put them into the equation to form our opinion.

There is no shortage of gratitude to Argue for the value he brings us, & I'm certainly grateful for it, as are many others. However, keeping this place civil, a place where readers & contributors can feel comfortable, & enjoy themselves, & post freely without fear of being bullied & mocked, is equally important, arguably more important. It's not all about money, the thread, & blonde, is about people having a little fun, relaxing, & chilling.

I do not want to have my name on a thread where people are scared to post for fear of being called out & harassed, & I'm not going to allow it to happen. Manners may not matter to everyone, & that's fine, but they do to me.

My apologies to fatcatstu, & I hope you keep posting. 

Arbboy has clearly gone over the top here, but as too often in these "debates", we have forgotten what the original point was.

The link pointed to a well argued piece that Bolton are too big on Saturday.  We know that it won't happen often, and if is clearly a hold your nose and bet anyway kind of bet.  You can only get on with Victor now, and you can't beat it on Betfair. Suggest we put £25 on Bolton vs Boro at 12/1 with the Gibraltan surrender monkeys. 

Guess we missed this then. 

ugh sorry, i did miss it