Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Morning Tighty.

Not the most interesting of tennis today, but I am interested to see if Wawrinka is up for this tournament. He lost his first match here last year and he may struggle again today. There is a bet to be had in the Pella/Young match. Whilst Young leads the head to head 2 nil neither of those matches have much relevance. They weren't on clay and in one of them Pella was injured. The most important piece of information to me was Donald Young's win over Fognini yesterday. A couple of years ago Fognini was an excellent clay courter, and whilst his form has dipped this is still a great result for Young. I make the odds a lot closer than the 2-1 we get on Young.

Suggest £15 Young @ 2-1 with Coral or victor at the Nice ATP

(9/4 at Matchbook)

Donald Young Guido Pella v Donald Young Winner
2/1
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £45.00
 

[DMorgan]

BMU have paid out the Josh King top Bournemouth goalscorer bet, not sure what's going on there with their last league game to come this evening

No injury news for Wilson as far as I can find

[tikay]

Overall £10,963 +6.37% ROI


Scarily close to the next £1,000 threshold.

We promised another Naps League when we reached £11,000, but we need to give it a while before we do another, as last week was a bit admin heavy. But we WILL do it at some stage, & some prize money will be paid.

*Awaits Camel chiding me for tempting fate*

[Chompy]

BMU have paid out the Josh King top Bournemouth goalscorer bet, not sure what's going on there with their last league game to come this evening

No injury news for Wilson as far as I can find

Haha, what a bunch. Guess they've just settled every seasonal Premiership bet without realising there's still a game left.

Drinkwater still 4-6 to make the final 23. We liking this?

[Karabiner]

BMU have paid out the Josh King top Bournemouth goalscorer bet, not sure what's going on there with their last league game to come this evening

No injury news for Wilson as far as I can find

Haha, what a bunch. Guess they've just settled every seasonal Premiership bet without realising there's still a game left.

Drinkwater still 4-6 to make the final 23. We liking this?

If we agree that Delph would be the first one dropped, then it'll be one more from Wilshere, Henderson and Drinkwater.

[TightEnd]

King has been settled on tikay's account too, +£160

Drinkwater no more than 50-50 imo

11 midfielders in the 26, no more than 9 will go

I'd assume Delph is an odd man out

that means one of Drinkwater, Townsend, Wilshere, Henderson, Dier, Milner, Alli, Barkley, Lallana misses out

of those if everyone is fit i think there are seven certainties and drinkwater isn't one of them

so i think 4-6 is too short

[TightEnd]

Overall £10,963 +6.37% ROI


Scarily close to the next £1,000 threshold.

We promised another Naps League when we reached £11,000, but we need to give it a while before we do another, as last week was a bit admin heavy. But we WILL do it at some stage, & some prize money will be paid.

*Awaits Camel chiding me for tempting fate*

because of BetVictor's largesse we are currently, temporarily possibly, through the next level

£11,123.54 profit on £172,262.75 bet for ROI of 6.46% on 5,732 bets

[Karabiner]

Townsend?

[TightEnd]

Townsend?

i think wilshere and henderson are certainties if fully fit and he can trust that they are. Roy likes them both a lot as we know

so the decision might come down to drinkwater or townsend, obviously different types of players in different positions so its a balance of squad issue. With Wellbeck injured, Roy often using him wide in an attacking three behind a lone striker then Townsend is the natural squad replacement there for that type of role

I do think that if Drinkwater played for (say) Man U there wouldn't even be a question so great has his season been but in practice i think he is more expendable than that IF we he can trust the crocks to get through the next six weeks 

[exstream]

walker delph and rashford

[maldini32]

I think we're looking at it wrong.

There are 4 fullbacks, he loves Clyne and he can play left back-he's done it a few times season. I can see any of the other 3 full backs being left out along with Delph and Rashford.

[exstream]

Right back will go as Milner and dier can play there

[TightEnd]

i couldn't see him just taking six defenders, no matter who could cover there

he's already gone light at centre back, with 3 not 4 jettisoning Jagielka

now we are saying he will go light at full back too and take 10 midfielders?

Not for me.

[Doobs]

Now we have hit 11k, I think it must be about time for peak banzai.

It is generally accepted in formula 1 that the engine has been letting down the McLaren over the last couple of years.  This year it has definitely improved so that they are genuine mid-tablers.  Over the last few days, I have heard it mentioned that they think they have the 3rd best chassis a couple of times.  Here is Alonso earlier   

http://www.crash.net/f1/news/230415/1/alonso-mclaren-has-stronger-chassis-than-ferrari.html


“We are behind Mercedes and Red Bull but they are very strong so we need to show in the next few races that we can improve our efficiency and mechanically grip,” Alonso said. “Maybe it is a surprise we are in front of many of our competitors but it is not for us. Good to be in front of Williams, Force India, Ferrari in terms of chassis.

I am fairly sure I read somewhere they were 3rd quickest in the tricky sector at the Spanish Grand Prix.

There is some testing going on in Barcelona today and Button is topping the charts, with a time a second quicker that in qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix.  Of course they could have put something illegal on the car, but I think it is a sign they are still getting quicker.

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/barcelona-f1-test-button-leads-first-morning-for-mclaren-737589/

A week on Sunday we have the Monaco grand prix.  This is likely the grand prix where the engine makes least difference and the chassis is all important.  It is also the grand prix that has produced a number of shocks over the years.  Senna "won" here in the terrible Toleman; Trulli and Panis managed their only wins here;  and an inferior Rosberg has managed to beat Hamilton here 3 years running!

So I think we have a perfect combination here for a very good McLaren performance.  We could easily see a McLaren or 2 in the first 3 rows of the grid.

After that we have realistic hopes for a coming together of some Mercedes or Red Bulls, and there has been many a careless driver clipped a wall or hit a backmarker here.

There probably doesn't need to be much more justifcation for backing a 200/1 chance.

Button is 200/1 in several spots, and 250/1 with Shy.  Alonso is 200/1 in several spots.  It really is a shame we don't get 3 spots on each way now, but I think we can manage with 2.

Can we try and get as much as we can on Alonso (150 up) and Button (200 up) each way.  I guess you can stop once we get to £40 each way, not that we will get that far.  I managed to get a little more than that.  Choral is probably a good place to start.

If you fail you can have a fiver e/w Alonso at 150/1 and Button at 200/1 with me (I guess the prices aren't going to hold for long).

[TightEnd]

Now we have hit 11k, I think it must be about time for peak banzai.

It is generally accepted in formula 1 that the engine has been letting down the McLaren over the last couple of years.  This year it has definitely improved so that they are genuine mid-tablers.  Over the last few days, I have heard it mentioned that they think they have the 3rd best chassis a couple of times.  Here is Alonso earlier   

http://www.crash.net/f1/news/230415/1/alonso-mclaren-has-stronger-chassis-than-ferrari.html


“We are behind Mercedes and Red Bull but they are very strong so we need to show in the next few races that we can improve our efficiency and mechanically grip,” Alonso said. “Maybe it is a surprise we are in front of many of our competitors but it is not for us. Good to be in front of Williams, Force India, Ferrari in terms of chassis.

I am fairly sure I read somewhere they were 3rd quickest in the tricky sector at the Spanish Grand Prix.

There is some testing going on in Barcelona today and Button is topping the charts, with a time a second quicker that in qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix.  Of course they could have put something illegal on the car, but I think it is a sign they are still getting quicker.

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/barcelona-f1-test-button-leads-first-morning-for-mclaren-737589/

A week on Sunday we have the Monaco grand prix.  This is likely the grand prix where the engine makes least difference and the chassis is all important.  It is also the grand prix that has produced a number of shocks over the years.  Senna "won" here in the terrible Toleman; Trulli and Panis managed their only wins here;  and an inferior Rosberg has managed to beat Hamilton here 3 years running!

So I think we have a perfect combination here for a very good McLaren performance.  We could easily see a McLaren or 2 in the first 3 rows of the grid.

After that we have realistic hopes for a coming together of some Mercedes or Red Bulls, and there has been many a careless driver clipped a wall or hit a backmarker here.

There probably doesn't need to be much more justifcation for backing a 200/1 chance.

Button is 200/1 in several spots, and 250/1 with Shy.  Alonso is 200/1 in several spots.  It really is a shame we don't get 3 spots on each way now, but I think we can manage with 2.

Can we try and get as much as we can on Alonso (150 up) and Button (200 up) each way.  I guess you can stop once we get to £40 each way, not that we will get that far.  I managed to get a little more than that.  Choral is probably a good place to start.

If you fail you can have a fiver e/w Alonso at 150/1 and Button at 200/1 with me (I guess the prices aren't going to hold for long).

i had the banzai recommendation for the red bulls for monaco ready. 3rd last year in monaco, great in slow corners....

then the Spanish grand prix happened. banzai no more