Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Oh

[TightEnd]

Given how static the F1 pecking order is at the moment, I'm surprised to see a number of decent spots today. Suggestions below:

Race Winner - Daniel Ricciardo @ 18/1 with Hills. Red Bull's race pace has been strong of late, and while they won't topple Lewis' Mercedes in normal race conditions, I do think they have a shot at being the second quickest team this weekend. Dekka's previous comments about their focus on weight also adds merit to this bet. Not to mention that 18/1 is already slightly out of line compared to other bookies. Would be happy with 15/1+ though. Suggest £10 EW (1-2 1/3).

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/usa-grand-prix/winner

First Driver Retirement - Kevin Magnussen @ 16/1 & Romain Grosjean @ 18/1 (16/1 okay) with various. This market can be a bit like playing bingo at times, but my analysis gives us an edge here. The Haas team have had perennial brake problems since they joined F1 at the start of 2016 (why they haven't developed a solution in that time is beyond me - but I digress). These problems are no secret, but judging from what I've seen over the last 10 races or so, I feel like they're exacerbated during long periods of high-to-medium speed turns, which results in a loss of brake temperature. This was demonstrated during practice three where Grosjean did indeed spin off. With this circuit featuring a particularly tricky section of high and medium speed turns, this is a promising spot. Suggest £10 on each.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/usa-grand-prix/1st-driver-retirement

Winning Margin - Over 10 seconds @ 11/4 with Sporting Bet. Given Lewis' form at the moment, he'll sprint away with this one. 11/4 is a cracking price. Worth noting that this is a very open circuit, any incidents would more than likely be covered under the virtual safety car, thus not impacting this bet. Suggest £30.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/usa-grand-prix/winning-margin

these are all On. 16/1 each of the two first retirements

[Cavey007]

Not for the thread as it's Sky and 365. But there's a huge difference in Brady passing yards.

https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/atlanta-falcons-at-new-england-patriots/total-passing-yds-tom-brady

275 on skybet, 325 on 365. Nice fat middle there for anyone interested. Scrap that. Already 299 on skybet now

[redsimon]

Not sure he can be picked up by a struggling Champo side in the window.

He's on loan from Ipswich for the season and Dour Mick is unlikely to let him go now.

He's in his mid 20s and has just had a few decent months with a top-end L1 side after roffling around in non-league thus far. He's a big, raw-boned chaser, the type Captain Tim Forster used to fill his yard with. A long-term project.

Barring injury he'll play most minutes of most games for the rest of the season for a prolific team. Wish I'd had more on now.

Chances Ipswich recall him?

[Chompy]

Fifth choice at the start of the season. Would be surprised.

[Cavey007]

Might be worth a cheeky tenner on Corey Grant anytime for the Jags today. With no Fournette playing it looks like he'll be the choice to give old man Ivory a rest. He's a best of 9/1, but available at around everywhere. Anyone with 365 could also take a small stake at Tommy Bohannon the full back for the Jags if Ivory gets held up at the goal line.

Recommend £10 at 7/1ish (can go more if you feel it's not worth it at low stakes)  15/2 on RZSports

[tikay]

The dumbing down of sports presentation continues.

Before tonight's F1 GP in Austin, Texas, Michael Buffer - he of "let's get ready to rummmmmmmbleeeeee" - will announce ALL TWENTY drivers.

In 20th place, from Denmark, it's Kkkkkkevinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Magnusssssssssssennnnnnnnnnnnn

In 19th place, from Germany, it's Passsssssssssssssssscallllllllllllllll Wehrleinnnnnnnnnnnnnn


And so on. Twenty chuffing times.



I might just about be able to cope with Usain Bolt flagging the cars off for their formation lap, but once Buffer starts with his ridic stuff I'm gonna have to turn off.

God help us & save us from all this shite.  

[Peter-27]

The dumbing down of sports presentation continues.

Before tonight's F1 GP in Austin, Texas, Michael Buffer - he of "let's get ready to rummmmmmmbleeeeee" - will announce ALL TWENTY drivers.

In 20th place, from Denmark, it's Kkkkkkevinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Magnusssssssssssennnnnnnnnnnnn

In 19th place, from Germany, it's Passsssssssssssssssscallllllllllllllll Wehrleinnnnnnnnnnnnnn


And so on. Twenty chuffing times.



I might just about be able to cope with Usain Bolt flagging the cars off for their formation lap, but once Buffer starts with his ridic stuff I'm gonna have to turn off.

God help us & save us from all this shite.  

Liberty Media suggested it will add some "anticipation and excitement" to the pre-race build-up. Personally, I don't really care about this sort of stuff - but if it increases the excitement for some people then I have no problem with it. Can't really see a down side. Although, I suspect it will get old quick if this is going to happen every race.

[tikay]

I am having my biggest NFL bet for ages this weekend.

The best QB in the league, Aaron Rodgers, broke his collarbone and is out for the season.

Woe is the Packers. Their season is fucked, right?

Well, probably, yes. But not so fast.

They cannot score points without God at QB, can they?

Well, they still have one of the best WR corps in the league, Adams, Nelson and Cobb.

And in 2013 when Rodgers was out injured for the last 8 games of the season they scored 13, 13, 26, 10, 22, 37, 31 and 33 points in their games for an average of 23.15 per game. And that was the mixture of Scott Tolzien, Seneca Wallace and Matt Flynn at QB. None of whom are as highly rated by the Green Bay coaching staff as Brett Hundley who will be at the helm on Sunday.

Against the Saints defense who rank 26th in the league, giving up a whopping 369 yards per game I think the GB offense will do just fine.

So we back GB getting 5?

Nope.

The Saints will surely put up tons of points here. They are already averaging 29 ppg and are facing a defense ravaged by injury.

Check out their injury report:

http://www.packers.com/team/injury-report.html

House, King, Pipkins, Burnett and Randall are all big doubts in the Packers secondary.

I can almost hear Drew Brees licking his lips from here.

I think this is going to be a shoot out of Wild West proportions.

Suggest £210 OVER 47.5 total points @ 20/21 with Patrick or Betunfair (£220 @ 10/11 general is fine too)

21 points on the board at half time, with the Packers leading 14-7.

[Doobs]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

apart from Nico...  

7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire.  Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.  

Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.

Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages


Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability. This notion can lead to fallacious thinking when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply because it has not occurred recently

At the start of the season, you can look at all the stats and decide Lewis is going to retire one race in ten (or whatever it is), so the odds on a retirement is 9/1.  If he doesn't retire in the first 9 races, that doesn't mean he is "due one" in the next race.  The odds are still going to be 9/1.  If anything, you could learn that maybe the Mercedes has got even more reliable than you thought, and that 9/1 is now too short.  There are always going to be occasions where retirement is more likely; like if the track is attritional, like Monaco; or the weather is really hot; or maybe the engine is reaching the end of its expected lifespan, but none of those will be because he is "due one".

I would say that the law of averages is right up there with "Momentum" as a bad reason to make a bet.  Will leave the momentum one to Camel, I can't hear that word in a commentary without thinking of The Camel these days.      

I understand the principle of the law of averages, and I can't directly argue with anything you've said. However, I think you've completely skimmed over a key component, cumulative effect. This isn't red/black roulette scenario because car components (at least the ones that are carry over) degrade over time which directly increases the chance of a failure at the next race. Of course I don't know Mercedes' component rotation, but I could take an educated guess, and I would be certain that many components have been on that car since the season began. It's worth noting that the component reconditioning process only happens following a shunt or reliability issue due to logistics.

Perhaps another much simpler way of looking at it is that if you look back through history, it's fairly rare for a driver to go a whole season without a retirement during a circa 20 race season. The last five times this happened was:

Daniel Ricciardo - 2016
Max Chilton - 2013
Kimi Raikkonen - 2012
Nick Heidfeld - 2008
Michael Schumacher - 2002

Although, you could make the argument that reliability on the whole is consistently improving as time passes and technology develops, so who knows. I still feel like 7/1 was value though.

Firstly, it was me that mentioned components might get worn out, but I doubt it is much of an angle.  These things have estimated lifespans and Mercedes have such a lead, they don't need to chance their arm anymore.  Is there any real evidence that cars fail more often late in a season?  My inclination is that it is nore likely early on when there are more new bits going on the car.  

On the full season stats, much as a roulette wheel doesn't know that number 26 hasn't come up for 100 spins, the components of a car don't know that Lewis has gone 16 races without breaking down.  I dare say Lewis isn't going to feel any pressure from this, as though I am sure he loves a reliable car, he isn't going to be stressed that he could be the 6th person to go through a season without a retirement.  

Right now, they need to last 4 races and not 20 right now, so past full season stats are near meaningless.   On a 7/1 race price, he must be about 5/4 to go the rest of the season without a retirement, and I'd happily lay that in decent size.  I'd be absolutely batshit crazy to lay that at the start of the season.  

I think if you looked back through F1 history, the data would show reliability is worse both at the start and ends of the season. Although, I've not actually done the research on this and could be wrong.

I'm not giving humanistic traits to car components here, but they have been stressed and strained for 16 races, and are more likely to fail compared to when they were in Australia (opening race), that is an outright fact.

If there were a market to back Lewis to finish the remaining four races this season, I would want 2/1 at least

Retirements in 1st race of the season vs last race of the season

2014
7 vs 3
2015
4 vs 1
2016
5 vs 5
2017
7 in Australia

So in the new engine era, we have 23 retirements in race 1 at nearly 6 a season and 9 in the last race of the season at 3 a season. So pretty sure it isn't an outright fact. 

Mercedes retirements
2014
5 in 38 races
2015
2 in 38 races though Nico had a classified finish for completing 90% of the race
2016
3 in 42 races (2 of those were when Nico and Lewis hit each other)
2017
1 in 32 races so far.

Mercedes have had no retirements in any of the last 4 races over the last 3 seasons.

But you make it 2/1 Lewis makes it through the next 4? 

Nobody has taken up my offer of 5/4 on a Lewis retirement over the next 4.  Lot of shrewdies about.

Sure he could break down, but you can have bad winning bets and good losing ones.

[tikay]

The dumbing down of sports presentation continues.

Before tonight's F1 GP in Austin, Texas, Michael Buffer - he of "let's get ready to rummmmmmmbleeeeee" - will announce ALL TWENTY drivers.

In 20th place, from Denmark, it's Kkkkkkevinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Magnusssssssssssennnnnnnnnnnnn

In 19th place, from Germany, it's Passsssssssssssssssscallllllllllllllll Wehrleinnnnnnnnnnnnnn


And so on. Twenty chuffing times.



I might just about be able to cope with Usain Bolt flagging the cars off for their formation lap, but once Buffer starts with his ridic stuff I'm gonna have to turn off.

God help us & save us from all this shite.  

I misjudged this, apologies.

It is far worse than I suggested.

F1 just devalued itself.

Bring back Bernie.

[Tal]

The dumbing down of sports presentation continues.

Before tonight's F1 GP in Austin, Texas, Michael Buffer - he of "let's get ready to rummmmmmmbleeeeee" - will announce ALL TWENTY drivers.

In 20th place, from Denmark, it's Kkkkkkevinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Magnusssssssssssennnnnnnnnnnnn

In 19th place, from Germany, it's Passsssssssssssssssscallllllllllllllll Wehrleinnnnnnnnnnnnnn


And so on. Twenty chuffing times.



I might just about be able to cope with Usain Bolt flagging the cars off for their formation lap, but once Buffer starts with his ridic stuff I'm gonna have to turn off.

God help us & save us from all this shite.  

Liberty Media suggested it will add some "anticipation and excitement" to the pre-race build-up. Personally, I don't really care about this sort of stuff - but if it increases the excitement for some people then I have no problem with it. Can't really see a down side. Although, I suspect it will get old quick if this is going to happen every race.

Should we give all the drivers nicknames, too?

It's Kimi...the Silent Assassinnnnnnnn Rrrrrrraikonnennnnn

[tikay]

The dumbing down of sports presentation continues.

Before tonight's F1 GP in Austin, Texas, Michael Buffer - he of "let's get ready to rummmmmmmbleeeeee" - will announce ALL TWENTY drivers.

In 20th place, from Denmark, it's Kkkkkkevinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Magnusssssssssssennnnnnnnnnnnn

In 19th place, from Germany, it's Passsssssssssssssssscallllllllllllllll Wehrleinnnnnnnnnnnnnn


And so on. Twenty chuffing times.



I might just about be able to cope with Usain Bolt flagging the cars off for their formation lap, but once Buffer starts with his ridic stuff I'm gonna have to turn off.

God help us & save us from all this shite.  

Liberty Media suggested it will add some "anticipation and excitement" to the pre-race build-up. Personally, I don't really care about this sort of stuff - but if it increases the excitement for some people then I have no problem with it. Can't really see a down side. Although, I suspect it will get old quick if this is going to happen every race.

Should we give all the drivers nicknames, too?

It's Kimi...the Silent Assassinnnnnnnn Rrrrrrraikonnennnnn

That'll be next if we are not careful.

[Pompeynick]

The dumbing down of sports presentation continues.

Before tonight's F1 GP in Austin, Texas, Michael Buffer - he of "let's get ready to rummmmmmmbleeeeee" - will announce ALL TWENTY drivers.

In 20th place, from Denmark, it's Kkkkkkevinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Magnusssssssssssennnnnnnnnnnnn

In 19th place, from Germany, it's Passsssssssssssssssscallllllllllllllll Wehrleinnnnnnnnnnnnnn


And so on. Twenty chuffing times.



I might just about be able to cope with Usain Bolt flagging the cars off for their formation lap, but once Buffer starts with his ridic stuff I'm gonna have to turn off.

God help us & save us from all this shite.  

I misjudged this, apologies.

It is far worse than I suggested.

F1 just devalued itself.

Bring back Bernie.

CHEESEY in the extreme

[tikay]

We can safely describe that utter bollox as "underwhelming", assuming we wish to be polite.