Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

My bok-ability remains impressive.

2-2

I don't want to hear a peep out of you in Vegas next year

That's a bit rich, coming from King Bok himself.

[Marky147]

My bok-ability remains impressive.

2-2

I don't want to hear a peep out of you in Vegas next year

That's a bit rich, coming from King Bok himself.

You're on a fair run, yourself

[tikay]

My bok-ability remains impressive.

2-2

I don't want to hear a peep out of you in Vegas next year

That's a bit rich, coming from King Bok himself.

You're on a fair run, yourself

3-2 Chelsea.

Guilty as charged.

God knows how Chelsea have won this.

[tikay]

I'll get me coat.

4-2

[Marky147]

I'll get me coat.

4-2

You're Man City, to my Burnley, in the bokking stakes

[Chompy]

Pfft, only three for Man City today. The wheels have come off.

Kieffer bagged another though, so all looking good there.

[Peter-27]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

apart from Nico...  

7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire.  Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.  

Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.

Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages


Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability. This notion can lead to fallacious thinking when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply because it has not occurred recently

At the start of the season, you can look at all the stats and decide Lewis is going to retire one race in ten (or whatever it is), so the odds on a retirement is 9/1.  If he doesn't retire in the first 9 races, that doesn't mean he is "due one" in the next race.  The odds are still going to be 9/1.  If anything, you could learn that maybe the Mercedes has got even more reliable than you thought, and that 9/1 is now too short.  There are always going to be occasions where retirement is more likely; like if the track is attritional, like Monaco; or the weather is really hot; or maybe the engine is reaching the end of its expected lifespan, but none of those will be because he is "due one".

I would say that the law of averages is right up there with "Momentum" as a bad reason to make a bet.  Will leave the momentum one to Camel, I can't hear that word in a commentary without thinking of The Camel these days.      

I understand the principle of the law of averages, and I can't directly argue with anything you've said. However, I think you've completely skimmed over a key component, cumulative effect. This isn't red/black roulette scenario because car components (at least the ones that are carry over) degrade over time which directly increases the chance of a failure at the next race. Of course I don't know Mercedes' component rotation, but I could take an educated guess, and I would be certain that many components have been on that car since the season began. It's worth noting that the component reconditioning process only happens following a shunt or reliability issue due to logistics.

Perhaps another much simpler way of looking at it is that if you look back through history, it's fairly rare for a driver to go a whole season without a retirement during a circa 20 race season. The last five times this happened was:

Daniel Ricciardo - 2016
Max Chilton - 2013
Kimi Raikkonen - 2012
Nick Heidfeld - 2008
Michael Schumacher - 2002

Although, you could make the argument that reliability on the whole is consistently improving as time passes and technology develops, so who knows. I still feel like 7/1 was value though.

Firstly, it was me that mentioned components might get worn out, but I doubt it is much of an angle.  These things have estimated lifespans and Mercedes have such a lead, they don't need to chance their arm anymore.  Is there any real evidence that cars fail more often late in a season?  My inclination is that it is nore likely early on when there are more new bits going on the car.  

On the full season stats, much as a roulette wheel doesn't know that number 26 hasn't come up for 100 spins, the components of a car don't know that Lewis has gone 16 races without breaking down.  I dare say Lewis isn't going to feel any pressure from this, as though I am sure he loves a reliable car, he isn't going to be stressed that he could be the 6th person to go through a season without a retirement.  

Right now, they need to last 4 races and not 20 right now, so past full season stats are near meaningless.   On a 7/1 race price, he must be about 5/4 to go the rest of the season without a retirement, and I'd happily lay that in decent size.  I'd be absolutely batshit crazy to lay that at the start of the season.  

I think if you looked back through F1 history, the data would show reliability is worse both at the start and ends of the season. Although, I've not actually done the research on this and could be wrong.

I'm not giving humanistic traits to car components here, but they have been stressed and strained for 16 races, and are more likely to fail compared to when they were in Australia (opening race), that is an outright fact.

If there were a market to back Lewis to finish the remaining four races this season, I would want 2/1 at least.

Am sat here having dinner with a friend whose company in W Sussex make carbon fibre body parts for many of the F1 teams.

He's just told me that Red Bull have gone further than anyone ever for this weekend's race in terms of having quite a lot of new parts with fewer layers of carbon fibre than before.  They are baked for much longer to give the strength needed to still do the job.  Net result is that the cars will be lighter, therefore logically quicker all other things being equal.

I don't know if this will give them the race-pace to win but they should fare better in qualifying as he's not had similar briefs from the other teams he makes parts for.

I'm not putting up a bet recommendation but posting to share the info which Peter and the other F1 followers might want to bear in mind.

EDIT:  As a rule of thumb in Formula 1, each 10 kg slows the car down roughly 0.4% (around 0.3 seconds a lap on a normal track)

The cars are all the same weight. They make the top as light as possible, then make it up to the minimum weight by putting weights on the bottom. So this invention might make things go faster, but it's not chopping a lump off the car.

Fascinating information. It won't help with pace directly, but it will help optimise weight distribution and could be of benefit given the undulations of the COTA track.

A Sussex-based carbon fibre company? That must be URT. I've had a lot of dealings with them before so I'm somewhat curious if I also know your friend  

[hhyftrftdr]

Pfft, only three for Man City today. The wheels have come off.

Kieffer bagged another though, so all looking good there.

Missed about 3 clear cut chances in last 5/10 minutes, so frustrating when chasing 100 goals haha

For long spells it had 1-0 written all over it so another 3 goals keeps things ticking over nicely. Away at WBA next Saturday and a very happy hunting ground for us in recent seasons so hopefully the normal service of 5/6/7 is resumed

[buzzharvey22]

So glad we got relegated last season so i can support City now.

[TightEnd]

if tikay wants a little sunday morning pep up

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/league-one/top-scorers

L1 golden boot   Kieffer Moore   25/1   40   £20 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
L1 golden boot   Kieffer Moore   20/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
L1 golden boot   Kieffer Moore   10/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

[tikay]

if tikay wants a little sunday morning pep up

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/league-one/top-scorers

L1 golden boot   Kieffer Moore   25/1   40   £20 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
L1 golden boot   Kieffer Moore   20/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
L1 golden boot   Kieffer Moore   10/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

Blimey.

Who put those bets up? Nirvana?

Sod's Law he'll get sold to a Champo Club in the January window.

Nice sweat though.

[Chompy]

Not sure he can be picked up by a struggling Champo side in the window.

He's on loan from Ipswich for the season and Dour Mick is unlikely to let him go now.

He's in his mid 20s and has just had a few decent months with a top-end L1 side after roffling around in non-league thus far. He's a big, raw-boned chaser, the type Captain Tim Forster used to fill his yard with. A long-term project.

Barring injury he'll play most minutes of most games for the rest of the season for a prolific team. Wish I'd had more on now.

[Chompy]

Posh v Shrewsbury

Shrewsbury are getting no respect and the current 2-1+ is ridic. We want a chunk on here. Should be nearer 6-4 each of two, 9-4 the draw, and I'd still want to be with Shrewsbury even then.

This sums it up as well as I ever could...

http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/sport/football/posh/match-comment-peterborough-united-are-too-kind-and-too-generous-1-8208744

McCann is turning into Westley. Gwion Edwards, our best attacking player (above Marriott and Maddison imo) is being played as a wing-back on his wrong side and Maddison is being played as a striker. He isn't a striker.

Only Steven Taylor, Gwion and Anthony Grant are stopping the wheels coming off completely at the moment, and McCann's family got abuse from a few clowns at Scunthorpe yesterday. Unnacceptable but chavs gonna chav.

We've met a string of opponents at good times and failed to win any of them. Now we have to face an in-form, well-organised, unbeaten team in front of a crowd who love a groan more than Wolves fans.

Away win.

£100 @ 2-1+ please.

[TightEnd]

On

[Peter-27]

Given how static the F1 pecking order is at the moment, I'm surprised to see a number of decent spots today. Suggestions below:

Race Winner - Daniel Ricciardo @ 18/1 with Hills. Red Bull's race pace has been strong of late, and while they won't topple Lewis' Mercedes in normal race conditions, I do think they have a shot at being the second quickest team this weekend. Dekka's previous comments about their focus on weight also adds merit to this bet. Not to mention that 18/1 is already slightly out of line compared to other bookies. Would be happy with 15/1+ though. Suggest £10 EW (1-2 1/3).

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/usa-grand-prix/winner

First Driver Retirement - Kevin Magnussen @ 16/1 & Romain Grosjean @ 18/1 (16/1 okay) with various. This market can be a bit like playing bingo at times, but my analysis gives us an edge here. The Haas team have had perennial brake problems since they joined F1 at the start of 2016 (why they haven't developed a solution in that time is beyond me - but I digress). These problems are no secret, but judging from what I've seen over the last 10 races or so, I feel like they're exacerbated during long periods of high-to-medium speed turns, which results in a loss of brake temperature. This was demonstrated during practice three where Grosjean did indeed spin off. With this circuit featuring a particularly tricky section of high and medium speed turns, this is a promising spot. Suggest £10 on each.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/usa-grand-prix/1st-driver-retirement

Winning Margin - Over 10 seconds @ 11/4 with Sporting Bet. Given Lewis' form at the moment, he'll sprint away with this one. 11/4 is a cracking price. Worth noting that this is a very open circuit, any incidents would more than likely be covered under the virtual safety car, thus not impacting this bet. Suggest £30.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/usa-grand-prix/winning-margin