Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

At 50s give it a spin

No view on the animal but do not need to have many positives to have a crack at that price

[typhoon13]

OK quick question for the maths gurus out there

Southampton are currently 9/4 to make the final of the FA cup and if they make it there i would suspect no bigger than 11/4 to win
would that make the 16-1 available for them to lift the cup value or not?

If you think they are going to win and have £10 at 9/4 then put your winnings on them at 11/4 it would return £121.19

Straight lift the cup £170

Problems start with is your 11/4 price based on 90 mins, or lift the cup

[Ironside]

OK quick question for the maths gurus out there

Southampton are currently 9/4 to make the final of the FA cup and if they make it there i would suspect no bigger than 11/4 to win
would that make the 16-1 available for them to lift the cup value or not?

If you think they are going to win and have £10 at 9/4 then put your winnings on them at 11/4 it would return £121.19

Straight lift the cup £170

Problems start with is your 11/4 price based on 90 mins, or lift the cup

we are 9/4 to get to final i would think who ever we meet in final would be similar price to lift cup as we would be to get past chelsea

(man U spurs and chelsea are very much a like in price to lift cup at this stage) so if we are 9/4 to get past chelsea i would think 11/4 would be biggest price we would get to get past man u or spurs
but i could be wrong

[TheDazzler]

Very divergent prices on the Rugby World Cup available from different firms;
https://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/rugby-world-cup-2019/winner
To the rugby guys, is there any value there?

[Chompy]

Southampton are 3-1 to qualify past Chelsea.

To make 16-1 value they'd need to be shorter than 3-1 (or a touch over) to win the final, which I don't think they will be.

[Ironside]

Southampton are 3-1 to qualify past Chelsea.

To make 16-1 value they'd need to be shorter than 3-1 (or a touch over) to win the final, which I don't think they will be.

looks like they have drifted in market they were 9/4 best price when i made my original post

[arbboy]

Southampton are 3-1 to qualify past Chelsea.

To make 16-1 value they'd need to be shorter than 3-1 (or a touch over) to win the final, which I don't think they will be.

Hills went 1/3 Chelski and it has been taken to reach final and Boyles are 16/5 Soton.  Hard to make a case Man U or Spurs are less likely to beat Soton than Chelski are tbh.  Even if they have the same chance 16/5 x 16/5 is a 16.5/1 shot.  Doesn't seem to be a great deal of value in it to my naked eye.  Is the cup final before the EPL season finishes or the last game?  This would have an effect potentially if Soton are still in a relegation battle.  I assume the final is the last game of the season.  

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/chelsea-v-southampton/to-qualify

[bunnydas8888]

Peter or anyone else for that matter have any thoughts on the upcoming F1?

[Doobs]

Let me kick off Aintree tips

Grand National £20 ew @50-1 on I Just Know

coral or ladbrookes offering 1/4 top 5 NRNB

can you give us some reasoning please?

i can actually and its more than "i just know"

Its going to be carrying a lot less weight than the the top horses
it's best results have come on soft/gd-soft chases rather than hurdles where its disappointed
late spring this year will hopefully ensure the ground stays on the soft side of good
if it makes the starting line (think it still needs a few more horses to drop out) then i think its odds will be 20-30 range
thats why i said NRNB incase it doesn't make the start

but i am just a bus driver when it comes to punting especially horses so maybe so of the experts can give us there tips

The Grand National is 4 weeks away, I don't think you can read anything into the current ground.   Could it still run if the ground was unsuitable?  Does it stay four and a half miles in heavy?   Feels like the ground has to be softish, but not too soft and we want to be sure they don't run on good ground and then 50/1 might be too big?

its raced on good twice last year at aintree where it went off as a 7-1 shot in a 16 runner field and was pulled up
2 weeks later at ayr also on the good it came 3/9 as a 16-1 shot
a year before in ayr it was its only other non finish when it was pulled up in a hurdle race

its results in chases look consistent when racing 24-30f but hasn't raced as far as 36 yet
when it raced over fences at 20f it was 4/4 which says to me its a stayer rather than a speedster

its first 6 races were over hurdles and didnt really make an impact
in next 5 races they were over the jumps it went off favourite and got 3 wins and 2 2nds

its last race over fences was 29f soft ground which it won
then it was raced at the weekend back over hurdles and only 23f where it came 2/4

as i say i am just a mug punter taking stabs in dark but i feel there must be some value at 50-1 NRNB  with 1/4 top 5

https://www.timeform.com/grand-national/horse-form/i-just-know/000000407484

I thought you were making a play on the ground as you mentioned it.   Its results point to it favouring soft.   I did read a comment from the connections saying it liked the spring ground, and there was talk of targetting the National, albeit next year's.

I watched its races and it shaped like a stayer, just one not beating much, and now quite a bit higher in the weights.  I wouldn't read much in to a low weight in a handicap, especially if it has been significantly upped.

If I could be confident it only ran on softish ground, I'd think it was an ok bet.  No harm done at 50/1 non runner no bet though, as horseplayer says.  Will be good to get a bet on.

[doubleup]

Matchplay golf starts tomorrow - the draw:

https://fantasybracket.pgatour.com/print

oddschecker

https://www.oddschecker.com/golf/wgc-dell-technologies-match-play/winner

Seems to me that the easiest brackets are top right and bottom left.  If you backed every player to win £100 at the betfair prices the brackets split

top left £30

bottom left £23

top right £26

bottom right £35

This would seem to indicate that the best eachway value would be in the two easiest brackets as winning the bracket is 4th place.

The books aren't providing great  odds though so I can only find Patrick Reed, coming back into form and a great match player and Paul Casey also playing very well, as value.

So £10 ew Casey @ 22-1 various and £10 ew on Reed @30-1 should provide a sweat for a couple of days anyway.


ps I have had a small bet on Shubhankar Sharma @ 100-1 but can't really recommend it as the betfair odds are now quite far from this price.

[horseplayer]

Let me kick off Aintree tips

Grand National £20 ew @50-1 on I Just Know

coral or ladbrookes offering 1/4 top 5 NRNB

can you give us some reasoning please?

i can actually and its more than "i just know"

Its going to be carrying a lot less weight than the the top horses
it's best results have come on soft/gd-soft chases rather than hurdles where its disappointed
late spring this year will hopefully ensure the ground stays on the soft side of good
if it makes the starting line (think it still needs a few more horses to drop out) then i think its odds will be 20-30 range
thats why i said NRNB incase it doesn't make the start

but i am just a bus driver when it comes to punting especially horses so maybe so of the experts can give us there tips

The Grand National is 4 weeks away, I don't think you can read anything into the current ground.   Could it still run if the ground was unsuitable?  Does it stay four and a half miles in heavy?   Feels like the ground has to be softish, but not too soft and we want to be sure they don't run on good ground and then 50/1 might be too big?

its raced on good twice last year at aintree where it went off as a 7-1 shot in a 16 runner field and was pulled up
2 weeks later at ayr also on the good it came 3/9 as a 16-1 shot
a year before in ayr it was its only other non finish when it was pulled up in a hurdle race

its results in chases look consistent when racing 24-30f but hasn't raced as far as 36 yet
when it raced over fences at 20f it was 4/4 which says to me its a stayer rather than a speedster

its first 6 races were over hurdles and didnt really make an impact
in next 5 races they were over the jumps it went off favourite and got 3 wins and 2 2nds

its last race over fences was 29f soft ground which it won
then it was raced at the weekend back over hurdles and only 23f where it came 2/4

as i say i am just a mug punter taking stabs in dark but i feel there must be some value at 50-1 NRNB  with 1/4 top 5

https://www.timeform.com/grand-national/horse-form/i-just-know/000000407484

I thought you were making a play on the ground as you mentioned it.   Its results point to it favouring soft.   I did read a comment from the connections saying it liked the spring ground, and there was talk of targetting the National, albeit next year's.

I watched its races and it shaped like a stayer, just one not beating much, and now quite a bit higher in the weights.  I wouldn't read much in to a low weight in a handicap, especially if it has been significantly upped.

If I could be confident it only ran on softish ground, I'd think it was an ok bet.  No harm done at 50/1 non runner no bet though, as horseplayer says.  Will be good to get a bet on.

One thing Doobs touches on here which I agree with is this thing about carrying a low weight in a handicap on bad ground and vice versa (top or big weight on heavy) being a negative. If anything stats tell you it is a small positive as a lot of pundits roll out the line how it is hard to carry weights in heavy ground (same with carrying penalties in bumpers).

Unless the horse has shown in the past it struggles carrying a big weight it is something that is impossible to quantify imo

[TightEnd]

Outright - Wgc Dell Technologies Match Play
Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4   Patrick Reed   33/1   
Total stake   20.00
Estimated return   432.50

Paul Casey
WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Winner
20/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds) Total Returns: £270.00

[TightEnd]

Very divergent prices on the Rugby World Cup available from different firms;
https://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/rugby-world-cup-2019/winner
To the rugby guys, is there any value there?

what do you think?

long way off but the groups are known...

[TightEnd]

i can only get 4 places NRNB at 50s

I Just Know
Grand National 2018 Winner
50/1
Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £967.50
   

[TightEnd]

i've seen enough from Palace to suggest them not to lose next week at 2/1 is a bet and I suggest £50.

Sakho and Tomkins look solid. Reduced Huddersfield well to hardly any chances. I question Palace's potency to score themselves in open play though when Benteke continues to frustrate, but we may be treated to Sorloth stepping in to start instead and we can see what he is about with the better squad surrounding him.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/handicaps   (crystal palace +1)
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/asian-handicap (crystal palace +0.5)

is Zaha fit after his shoeing at the hands of the Terriers yesterday and does your opinion change if he isn't?

the stats with or without him are very striking (which they would be, fine player)

Saw some pretty strong 'opinions' about Huddersfield's tactics on how to deal with Zaha on a friends social media yesterday. He is indeed a fine player and hopefully fit enough to give Mr Southgate some cause for thought when deciding on his final 23.

I generally go with the 'Back Palace when Zaha/Sakho both start and leave alone when they don't' so maybe just pause on this bet till we see how the Zaha situation plays out in the next couple of days?

I only just realised the Liverpool game is two weeks away, so a lot can change until then. With Zaha the post match comments from Hodgson seemed as if he is fine and taking him off was precautionary and as Matt alluded to, there was no point him in him continuing to be kicked for the final mins. I think the positive effect of Zaha is obvious but that of Sakho, less so. Hodgson himself saying, "I haven't been given any indication that he's picked up any kind of injury". Normally a good sign.

He is very calm and likes to play the ball out of the back which builds attacks much more commonly and gives the team a sense of ease and assurance. He also doesn't like a sideways pass which is really refreshing. If he sees a through ball on, or a little dink chip forward after receiving the ball from the keeper, he will go for it. Always pretty brazen from him. That does bring with it around one solid mistake a match, like there was at Huddersfield with Mounie clean through but for a bad touch to let Sakho back in, but its still easily a profitable trade off imo. Also something about his gangliness and overall awkwardness that endears me to him. Bolasie had that in a different way, and I am a sucker for enjoying that.

Sakho's presence settles the whole team, and we look so much better. Zaha then pops up and takes on the mantle further forward. I still do think he should be on the wing so he could have more of an effect in midfield building plays, and the two pronged wing attack of him and Townsend would frighten, also it would allow Benteke to fall into a more accustomed system alone up top, that had him have 15 goals last season versus his 2, this. In the current system though obviously we can get by fine on that Huddersfield performance, but its just a note.

Sorlorth could be the shock inclusion to partner Zaha up top for Liverpool and i think many a Palace fan would like to see how that would fare.

Tomkins has also been superb recently and i can see him forming a great partnership with Sakho if both can stay off the injury table, but they are both unfortunately ticking time bombs.

The 2 week wait does give Loftus-Cheek more time to get fit, but hardly any gametime, means i doubt he gets thrown in, but will probably be sub. Regardless our midfield was great against Huddersfield. Milojevic has impressed for a while. 

tbh Tighty i don't know when to pull the trigger on it. I would back it myself at 2.6+ and think the outright win at 7.0+ is good as well. Zaha i don't think is an injury concern at all from post match comments, so I don't think that should stop you from betting. 

Hutch, good insight imo, as now I believe under Hodgson you need to assure Zaha and Sakho are both starting, before considering value. That might change if we get a striker in form to shift the onus away from those two.

keepus in touch then please