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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13437032 times)
HutchGF
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« Reply #132120 on: March 18, 2018, 11:28:46 AM »

He's no longer eligible for England Hutch. Has played in competitive internationals for Ivory Coast so an option lost.

Really? I wasn't aware of that. That is a real shame.
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« Reply #132121 on: March 18, 2018, 11:53:09 AM »

Yes still struggling to process not receiving a single bet suggestion for Cheltenham but still ..

You had 2 and one of them won!!! Admittedly they were a little last minute and not of the usual quality. Cry
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« Reply #132122 on: March 18, 2018, 12:25:13 PM »

Well done with Rose, Kukushkin.

Thankfully for you guys, I missed it, and didn't weigh him down with my cash.

Don't ever worry about looking stupid, Apez... We have Ralph and myself for that, mate Smiley
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« Reply #132123 on: March 18, 2018, 01:22:03 PM »

He's no longer eligible for England Hutch. Has played in competitive internationals for Ivory Coast so an option lost.

Really? I wasn't aware of that. That is a real shame.

From what I have heard he wanted to play for England but Southgate didn’t really convince him that he would be in his long term plans.
As is the English way there are many more safer picks than Zaha, we don’t really for for flair players in our national team.
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« Reply #132124 on: March 18, 2018, 01:25:02 PM »

i've seen enough from Palace to suggest them not to lose next week at 2/1 is a bet and I suggest £50.

Sakho and Tomkins look solid. Reduced Huddersfield well to hardly any chances. I question Palace's potency to score themselves in open play though when Benteke continues to frustrate, but we may be treated to Sorloth stepping in to start instead and we can see what he is about with the better squad surrounding him.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/handicaps   (crystal palace +1)
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/asian-handicap (crystal palace +0.5)




is Zaha fit after his shoeing at the hands of the Terriers yesterday and does your opinion change if he isn't?

the stats with or without him are very striking (which they would be, fine player)

Saw some pretty strong 'opinions' about Huddersfield's tactics on how to deal with Zaha on a friends social media yesterday. He is indeed a fine player and hopefully fit enough to give Mr Southgate some cause for thought when deciding on his final 23.

I generally go with the 'Back Palace when Zaha/Sakho both start and leave alone when they don't' so maybe just pause on this bet till we see how the Zaha situation plays out in the next couple of days?

3 Huddersfield players were booked yesterday for fouls on Zaha. First game of the season they kicked him off the park but got away with it, resulted in him missing 6 matches through injury.
Yesterday he eventually had to go off injured due to the treatment dished out.
Hopefully he wil, be fit for the Liverpool match but without him would be a definite no bet.
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horseplayer
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« Reply #132125 on: March 18, 2018, 02:19:11 PM »

Does Martin Keown think Wigan players all work in the corner shop part time?
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« Reply #132126 on: March 18, 2018, 06:35:03 PM »

Vlad @ 6/5 weighed in.

Can't remember who put that up a few years ago Cheesy
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« Reply #132127 on: March 18, 2018, 06:45:55 PM »

I was just about to ask if Fred had bet on the Russian election.
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« Reply #132128 on: March 18, 2018, 09:36:54 PM »

OK quick question for the maths gurus out there

Southampton are currently 9/4 to make the final of the FA cup and if they make it there i would suspect no bigger than 11/4 to win
would that make the 16-1 available for them to lift the cup value or not?
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« Reply #132129 on: March 18, 2018, 09:48:44 PM »

Let me kick off Aintree tips

Grand National £20 ew @50-1 on I Just Know

coral or ladbrookes offering 1/4 top 5 NRNB



can you give us some reasoning please?


i can actually and its more than "i just know"

Its going to be carrying a lot less weight than the the top horses
it's best results have come on soft/gd-soft chases rather than hurdles where its disappointed
late spring this year will hopefully ensure the ground stays on the soft side of good
if it makes the starting line (think it still needs a few more horses to drop out) then i think its odds will be 20-30 range
thats why i said NRNB incase it doesn't make the start

but i am just a bus driver when it comes to punting especially horses so maybe so of the experts can give us there tips
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Ant040689
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« Reply #132130 on: March 19, 2018, 03:04:41 AM »

i've seen enough from Palace to suggest them not to lose next week at 2/1 is a bet and I suggest £50.

Sakho and Tomkins look solid. Reduced Huddersfield well to hardly any chances. I question Palace's potency to score themselves in open play though when Benteke continues to frustrate, but we may be treated to Sorloth stepping in to start instead and we can see what he is about with the better squad surrounding him.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/handicaps   (crystal palace +1)
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/asian-handicap (crystal palace +0.5)




is Zaha fit after his shoeing at the hands of the Terriers yesterday and does your opinion change if he isn't?

the stats with or without him are very striking (which they would be, fine player)

Saw some pretty strong 'opinions' about Huddersfield's tactics on how to deal with Zaha on a friends social media yesterday. He is indeed a fine player and hopefully fit enough to give Mr Southgate some cause for thought when deciding on his final 23.

I generally go with the 'Back Palace when Zaha/Sakho both start and leave alone when they don't' so maybe just pause on this bet till we see how the Zaha situation plays out in the next couple of days?

I only just realised the Liverpool game is two weeks away, so a lot can change until then. With Zaha the post match comments from Hodgson seemed as if he is fine and taking him off was precautionary and as Matt alluded to, there was no point him in him continuing to be kicked for the final mins. I think the positive effect of Zaha is obvious but that of Sakho, less so. Hodgson himself saying, "I haven't been given any indication that he's picked up any kind of injury". Normally a good sign.

He is very calm and likes to play the ball out of the back which builds attacks much more commonly and gives the team a sense of ease and assurance. He also doesn't like a sideways pass which is really refreshing. If he sees a through ball on, or a little dink chip forward after receiving the ball from the keeper, he will go for it. Always pretty brazen from him. That does bring with it around one solid mistake a match, like there was at Huddersfield with Mounie clean through but for a bad touch to let Sakho back in, but its still easily a profitable trade off imo. Also something about his gangliness and overall awkwardness that endears me to him. Bolasie had that in a different way, and I am a sucker for enjoying that.

Sakho's presence settles the whole team, and we look so much better. Zaha then pops up and takes on the mantle further forward. I still do think he should be on the wing so he could have more of an effect in midfield building plays, and the two pronged wing attack of him and Townsend would frighten, also it would allow Benteke to fall into a more accustomed system alone up top, that had him have 15 goals last season versus his 2, this. In the current system though obviously we can get by fine on that Huddersfield performance, but its just a note.

Sorlorth could be the shock inclusion to partner Zaha up top for Liverpool and i think many a Palace fan would like to see how that would fare.

Tomkins has also been superb recently and i can see him forming a great partnership with Sakho if both can stay off the injury table, but they are both unfortunately ticking time bombs.

The 2 week wait does give Loftus-Cheek more time to get fit, but hardly any gametime, means i doubt he gets thrown in, but will probably be sub. Regardless our midfield was great against Huddersfield. Milojevic has impressed for a while. 

tbh Tighty i don't know when to pull the trigger on it. I would back it myself at 2.6+ and think the outright win at 7.0+ is good as well. Zaha i don't think is an injury concern at all from post match comments, so I don't think that should stop you from betting. 

Hutch, good insight imo, as now I believe under Hodgson you need to assure Zaha and Sakho are both starting, before considering value. That might change if we get a striker in form to shift the onus away from those two.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 03:33:08 AM by Ant040689 » Logged
Doobs
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« Reply #132131 on: March 19, 2018, 11:55:00 AM »

Let me kick off Aintree tips

Grand National £20 ew @50-1 on I Just Know

coral or ladbrookes offering 1/4 top 5 NRNB



can you give us some reasoning please?


i can actually and its more than "i just know"

Its going to be carrying a lot less weight than the the top horses
it's best results have come on soft/gd-soft chases rather than hurdles where its disappointed
late spring this year will hopefully ensure the ground stays on the soft side of good
if it makes the starting line (think it still needs a few more horses to drop out) then i think its odds will be 20-30 range
thats why i said NRNB incase it doesn't make the start

but i am just a bus driver when it comes to punting especially horses so maybe so of the experts can give us there tips


The Grand National is 4 weeks away, I don't think you can read anything into the current ground.   Could it still run if the ground was unsuitable?  Does it stay four and a half miles in heavy?   Feels like the ground has to be softish, but not too soft and we want to be sure they don't run on good ground and then 50/1 might be too big?
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Ironside
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« Reply #132132 on: March 19, 2018, 12:36:51 PM »

Let me kick off Aintree tips

Grand National £20 ew @50-1 on I Just Know

coral or ladbrookes offering 1/4 top 5 NRNB



can you give us some reasoning please?


i can actually and its more than "i just know"

Its going to be carrying a lot less weight than the the top horses
it's best results have come on soft/gd-soft chases rather than hurdles where its disappointed
late spring this year will hopefully ensure the ground stays on the soft side of good
if it makes the starting line (think it still needs a few more horses to drop out) then i think its odds will be 20-30 range
thats why i said NRNB incase it doesn't make the start

but i am just a bus driver when it comes to punting especially horses so maybe so of the experts can give us there tips


The Grand National is 4 weeks away, I don't think you can read anything into the current ground.   Could it still run if the ground was unsuitable?  Does it stay four and a half miles in heavy?   Feels like the ground has to be softish, but not too soft and we want to be sure they don't run on good ground and then 50/1 might be too big?


its raced on good twice last year at aintree where it went off as a 7-1 shot in a 16 runner field and was pulled up
2 weeks later at ayr also on the good it came 3/9 as a 16-1 shot
a year before in ayr it was its only other non finish when it was pulled up in a hurdle race

its results in chases look consistent when racing 24-30f but hasn't raced as far as 36 yet
when it raced over fences at 20f it was 4/4 which says to me its a stayer rather than a speedster

its first 6 races were over hurdles and didnt really make an impact
in next 5 races they were over the jumps it went off favourite and got 3 wins and 2 2nds

its last race over fences was 29f soft ground which it won
then it was raced at the weekend back over hurdles and only 23f where it came 2/4

as i say i am just a mug punter taking stabs in dark but i feel there must be some value at 50-1 NRNB  with 1/4 top 5

https://www.timeform.com/grand-national/horse-form/i-just-know/000000407484
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« Reply #132133 on: March 19, 2018, 05:05:26 PM »

I Just Know was tipped by a respected (by me, at least) punter a couple of weeks ago when it was 150/1

It was 100/1 by the time I got around to looking at it, so I passed.

At 50/1, perhaps all the value's been had? Is it really going to be priced between 20/1 & 33/1 if it makes the cut?
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« Reply #132134 on: March 19, 2018, 06:48:24 PM »

I Just Know was tipped by a respected (by me, at least) punter a couple of weeks ago when it was 150/1

It was 100/1 by the time I got around to looking at it, so I passed.

At 50/1, perhaps all the value's been had? Is it really going to be priced between 20/1 & 33/1 if it makes the cut?

sorry never saw your post

33-1 and 40-1 in alot places that had been 50-1 at weekend although marathon had gone out to 66-1 (1/4 top 4)
i think it will be under 30-1 come race day
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