Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/wales/43487460

Oh Chris Gunter sha la la la la la la

Chinese super fans of Wales but more particularly Chris Gunter....

[Doobs]

Reckon we should shovel as much as we can on Bottas each way for the Australian Grand Prix at 15/2.

A few bookies are offering a fifth first 3 again.  That means that we are getting 6/4 on an even money chance with our place money.  We lose a bit on the win money, but just keep shovelling until you can shovel no more.  Chorals, lads, PP and BFSB all offer this. 

Rince repeat with the Bottas 10/1 for the drivers championship.  Here we get 2/1 on a bet that should be about evens. Choral and Billys are taking bets.

Chorals website is as bad as ever, but the mobile one worked ok.

The Mercedes still looks the fastest car, and though the Red Bull might be closer, the Ferrari looks a bit further back.  Think this makes it swings and roundabouts and Merecedes are rightly odds on for the championship.  I suspect Bottas is still a bit underated.

Anyway, get on.

Cheers

[Peter-27]

Alright, it's the moment I'm sure you've all been on the edge of your seats for. The F1 season is back this weekend.

This is, without question, the most tricky pre-season analysis I have ever done. I have never had such low confidence about my predictions heading into a season, but I do still trust my own judgement. I appear to have discovered a hidden truth where teams have decided that race pace is considerably more important than qualifying pace for this season. Usually, all teams will do at least one low fuel, flying lap during the eight days of testing - but this year, it seems to me like no-one did at all. Nevertheless, I have crunched all the data and come up with a pecking order - both at the start and end of the season by taking into account typical car development rates over the last three seasons.

Based on that data, bet suggestions for the season, and the grand prix this weekend, are below.

Championship Winner: https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/winner
Valtteri Bottas @ 11/1 with Betway. Admittedly the second quickest driver in this team, but 11/1, in the fastest car, I'll take those odds all day long. EW top three, medium bet size. I would happily go down to 8/1 too.
Sebastian Vettel @ 9/2 with Betstars. I expect the gap between Ferrari and Mercedes to largely stay the same this year, and Vettel was only 46 points off Lewis last season, 9/2 seems generous given this, and given that Ferrari had the quickest time of anyone in pre-season testing. EW top three, max bet. Would go down to 4/1.

Australian GP Top Six: https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/top-6-finish
Sergio Perez @ 7/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power. I don't think it's likely that this will come off. It will certainly rely on some issues with the expected top six. It also relies on the theory of Force India sandbagging more than anyone else in testing being proven to be correct. I'm dubious myself. However, I am also wary that we may never see this price again. Small bet size.

There are a few more markets, such as the spreads, that I want to scour more thoroughly before making suggestions. I'm just shattered right now. Will look into it some more tomorrow evening.

[Doobs]

Sure Vettel e/w for the championship is fine too. 

[doubleup]

Outright - Wgc Dell Technologies Match Play
Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4   Patrick Reed   33/1   
Total stake   20.00
Estimated return   432.50

Paul Casey
WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Winner
20/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds) Total Returns: £270.00

Both won first matches, Casey rather lucky it has to be said. 

[DropTheHammer]

England take on New Zealand in a Test Match starting at, I think, about Midnight tonight.

Match odds are (roughly), 6/4 England, 6/4 the Draw & 9/4 NZ.

Any angles that can be exploited in the market?



https://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/new-zealand-v-england/1st-test/betting-markets

England 58 all out!

[tikay]

England take on New Zealand in a Test Match starting at, I think, about Midnight tonight.

Match odds are (roughly), 6/4 England, 6/4 the Draw & 9/4 NZ.

Any angles that can be exploited in the market?



https://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/new-zealand-v-england/1st-test/betting-markets

England 58 all out!

I had intended to back England at 6/4, and only realised when I woke up this morning that I had forgotten to get on, so was pretty cross with myself.

Turned the TV on, saw the score, yay, now I'm a happy bunny.

[TightEnd]

Reckon we should shovel as much as we can on Bottas each way for the Australian Grand Prix at 15/2.

A few bookies are offering a fifth first 3 again.  That means that we are getting 6/4 on an even money chance with our place money.  We lose a bit on the win money, but just keep shovelling until you can shovel no more.  Chorals, lads, PP and BFSB all offer this. 

Rince repeat with the Bottas 10/1 for the drivers championship.  Here we get 2/1 on a bet that should be about evens. Choral and Billys are taking bets.

Chorals website is as bad as ever, but the mobile one worked ok.

The Mercedes still looks the fastest car, and though the Red Bull might be closer, the Ferrari looks a bit further back.  Think this makes it swings and roundabouts and Merecedes are rightly odds on for the championship.  I suspect Bottas is still a bit underated.

Anyway, get on.

Cheers

Valtteri Bottas
Formula One Winner
10/1
Each Way (3 Places at 1/5 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £350.00

Valtteri Bottas
Australian Grand Prix Winner
15/2
Each Way (3 Places at 1/5 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £275.00
   

[TightEnd]

Alright, it's the moment I'm sure you've all been on the edge of your seats for. The F1 season is back this weekend.

This is, without question, the most tricky pre-season analysis I have ever done. I have never had such low confidence about my predictions heading into a season, but I do still trust my own judgement. I appear to have discovered a hidden truth where teams have decided that race pace is considerably more important than qualifying pace for this season. Usually, all teams will do at least one low fuel, flying lap during the eight days of testing - but this year, it seems to me like no-one did at all. Nevertheless, I have crunched all the data and come up with a pecking order - both at the start and end of the season by taking into account typical car development rates over the last three seasons.

Based on that data, bet suggestions for the season, and the grand prix this weekend, are below.

Championship Winner: https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/winner
Valtteri Bottas @ 11/1 with Betway. Admittedly the second quickest driver in this team, but 11/1, in the fastest car, I'll take those odds all day long. EW top three, medium bet size. I would happily go down to 8/1 too.
Sebastian Vettel @ 9/2 with Betstars. I expect the gap between Ferrari and Mercedes to largely stay the same this year, and Vettel was only 46 points off Lewis last season, 9/2 seems generous given this, and given that Ferrari had the quickest time of anyone in pre-season testing. EW top three, max bet. Would go down to 4/1.

Australian GP Top Six: https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/top-6-finish
Sergio Perez @ 7/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power. I don't think it's likely that this will come off. It will certainly rely on some issues with the expected top six. It also relies on the theory of Force India sandbagging more than anyone else in testing being proven to be correct. I'm dubious myself. However, I am also wary that we may never see this price again. Small bet size.

There are a few more markets, such as the spreads, that I want to scour more thoroughly before making suggestions. I'm just shattered right now. Will look into it some more tomorrow evening.

Bottas placed above

Vettel the best we can get is 7/2, below your threshold, have left it

Sergio Perez
Australian Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
7/1
Total Stake: 10.00
Total Returns: 80.00

[superwomble]

I can do Vettel at 9/2 if you like, how much do you want?

[TightEnd]

I can do Vettel at 9/2 if you like, how much do you want?

"EW top three, max bet"

what can you get on?

£50 e/w given its nine months?

[tikay]

Superwomble - if you get something on for Fred, PM me your Bank Details & I'll get the cash across to you right away.

[superwomble]

I can do Vettel at 9/2 if you like, how much do you want?

"EW top three, max bet"

what can you get on?

£50 e/w given its nine months?

Booked, have screenshot on my phone if you need it.

[superwomble]

Superwomble - if you get something on for Fred, PM me your Bank Details & I'll get the cash across to you right away.

Hi tikay, you can send it if you like, or settle up when done, I'm fine either way. I've sent you my details before but if you want/need them again let me know 

[tikay]

Superwomble - if you get something on for Fred, PM me your Bank Details & I'll get the cash across to you right away.

Hi tikay, you can send it if you like, or settle up when done, I'm fine either way. I've sent you my details before but if you want/need them again let me know 

Probably safest if we settle up now. I may have your Bank Deets but please send them again via PM, as I've forgotten your real name, sorry.