As a further point on Cheltenham ante-post betting at this early stage without NRNB, we are obviously having a double, or maybe even a treble:
1> Horse wins at x price on the day.
2> Horse DOES NOT pull out due to injury, random factor.
3> Horse DOES NOT go to another race.
To have value bets at this early stage we need to pick horses that for...
#1 Will go off much shorter. I think we haven't really picked horses and races where something will improve a stone and go off at 3/1 or less. We have also not picked horses where another animal being a non-runner will MASSIVELY shorten our price (apart from the RSA).
#2 Will not get injured, face a problem that stops them running. Obviously this is slightly random but it also has a % chance. Can anyone put a % on a horse not running at this stage? If we pick solid horses like RoR who have not shown to be massively fragile we have more chance of running, but for an average 8/1 chance what is the chance of an injury between now and their Festival target in January/February/March? Can anyone put a number on it? Obviously as Cheltenham gets nearer the bookies get the scissors out and my guess is that they shorten everything by too much. I don't know this to be the case though. I'm also sure that sometimes a market goes quiet and they forget that as each week goes by the horses should shorten, just because they still have four legs and eat hay.
#3 I believe that it is possible to be better than the fixed-odds bookies on knowing which race horses will go to and this is why I quite like ante-post on Cheltenham. There is a lot of information out there and many horses to keep an eye on. Many days the compilers are concentrating on that days racing and by specialising in a couple of races and tracking things daily, you can find good bets, where targets change.
Another comment I have on Cheltenham betting is that most compilers seem to be morons with regard to NRNB. They just seem to think you can offer it and then go a middle price just under the best price of all the bookies offering all-in run or not. That is a great reason to wait.
If we are going to go big into Cheltenham maybe we should consider some bets where we think something could really shorten (either because we think it will improve or because the race will really cut up).
Has anyone got any of those kind of selections?
I'm not criticizing BigAdz bet as I like it, but it's hard to see Champion Court, RoR or SDC shortening to such a level that we feel like we've had fantastic value when we consider the 2nd leg of the double we had (that it would get there and run). It may be that the real value we had in these selections was that the bookies have allowed too much for that factor and they are big odds-on to show up and go off at 7/1, 7/1 and 5/1 (the RSA is different as our horse could be favourite on the day).
Its analysis like this that makes this place so compelling.
As I said earlier, I am following a horse for the Gold Cup that could potentially fit the bill, under the heading "potential improver". Last year I fell for some performances by a horse called Bold Sir Brian, trained by Lucinda Russell. It wasn't because it was winning me money, just the opposite, it kept beating horses I thought were good things. Each time it seemed to improve enough to not look flashy, but appeared to have plenty under the bonnet. I really fancied it for the Jewson, but it never got there.
This year it reappeared in a small conditions race at Carlisle, and again won comfortably beating some better than average northern handicappers. She then sent it down to Sandown where it was sent up in trip on softer ground than it had run on and beat up a reasonable yardstick of Nicholls, steaming up the Sandown hill and allaying any fears I had in its ability to stay. It also jumps very soundly and has strengthened up visibly since last year
Before this I mopped up all the snippets of 700s/600s, after this I mopped up the 400s. Then LR delighted me by suggesting the horse had to be aimed at the GC, with its next race likely to be in the Argento at Chelts in Jan, probably racing Bobs Worth, and probably a few others. Should it win there, the huge prices on offer will disappear. Normally I would write it off as just another Northern flash in the pan. However last year LR proved her ability to produce a decent horse at a festival metting when the ill fated Brindi Breeze did the business. She talks about this horse in equally high regard. Its a long shot, but its profile is the sort I look for.
Other end of the scale. My Tent or Yours-Supreme Novice. Ran 2nd to a stable mate in bottomless ground at Newbury on Saturday when massive odds on to win. Travelled very well but couldnt pick up in the ground and beaten fair and square. They had threatened to run it several times over Xmas and kept pulling it out because of the ground and ended up running on the worst ground I saw all month. Normally I would worry, but its a JP Mac horse. Now this fella doesnt worry about producing horses with long lists of 1's next to their names. He just has objectives for his horses, and even a PPU next to them when they have shown ability does unduly alarm me when the money is down.
This fella is out to 20s on the machine and I reckon will be close to Favourite on the day. Janki has been mighty impressive on 5 occasions already this year, and the last time was the most impressive, on ground that worried me for him pre race. I wonder if he may have left his form behind. Wouldnt be the first.
Food for thought gents.
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