Tips for Tikay

[anthonyl]

Brighton v Newcastle

DNB (we have drawn about 6 at home) at evens on bet365, not sure if better elsewhere hard on phone!

Ba not in tonight's squad. Arfa and cabaye out too. We beat them in fourth round last year. Our star player Vicente is apparently going to return after five months out (on the bench).

Also they are playing tonight and game is Saturday midday so not much rest for them considering distance to travel down.

Probably worth £30.

[anthonyl]

Football gurus

Looks like BA is leaving newcastle

newcastle to be relegated @ 12.0 - thoughts?

Debuchy and remy in though? Arfa and cabaye returning soon too....

[BigAdz]

Sometimes I forget I am not dealing with the usual low IQs from my former poker related forum. Its excellent to get the sort of feedback/input from you guys.

Can't argue with a single point Neil put forward.

My rationale was not so much putting up horses I fancy, or getting any each way value. None of the horses mentioned would at this stage be my main fancy for any of those races(I would be laughed out of town if I told you some of those). However what I tried to put together was a bet that, bar injurys, would make it to the starting post, and also I am sure have some value at those prices vs what I consider will be the SPs. Firstly, the horses

Sir Des Champs- when he won the Jewson in such imperious style last year my immediate thought was GC winner. Two runs this year tell us he is will stay, and is being aimed at 15th March. Sensible head on, it will be fought out between he and Bobs Worth, who is half the price, therefore I plumped for SDC, as I see him challenging for at worst 2nd fav on the day(5-1)

Rock on Ruby. Surprise winner last year, but seemingly on merit. 2nd-Overturn, gone chasing. 3rd H Fly, looked as good as ever, but beaten fair and square and now 9. this years contenders Darlan has beaten the rest but, non of the really positive vibes about him you normally get from Hendo or Mccoy. Therefore cometh the dayI just cant see ROR being 10s


Boston Bob-A real grinder and 2nd in the Albert Bartlett last year under at best a moderate Ruby ride. Pleasing enough start to chasing career, but a true true stayer which is 90% of whats required for this race, and much talk of Dynaste(I hate to say it) running in a more long term welfare race, the Jewson. If this happens he goes 5-1 without running.

Finally Champion Court- I summed up his collateral form in OP and as the shrewdies start to notice his Chelt form as well, and others tinker around with running plans I expect him to start at less than 10s

So in terms of value I think we have some horses who will be shorter at the time. Is that value if you aren't convinced at their chances? Moot.

In terms of the bet, I am more worried that Laddies have the best prices. That does worry me.Lucky 15, not for me. i am chasing rainbows. The bet I have actually placed is win doubles and ew trebles and accum.

Hopefully these will give us a small interest for big returns, and all look as safe as one can expect at this stage to make the race for which they will probably be shorter on the day. I expect plenty of one off interest bets as time goes by, but in order to get a portfolio for Fred going for small beer, that was/ is my rationale

[tikay]

Adzy,

Lol at that first sentence. Know what you mean though........

That all makes perfect sense. We shall have a little Yankee later today.

Note, as you are looking to help build/recommend a Chelters potfiolio, we already have some minor interests as follows.....


Gold Cup - Dynaste, £10 @ 379/1.

Gold Cup - Long Run, £25 @ 7/1

Supreme Novices, Jezki, £20 @ 8/1

That does not mean we should not back others, of course, but you need to know the wider picture.

[Bad Beat]

 In case anyone was wondering if BigAdz was worth listening to, this statement should remove the doubt...

 "My rationale was not so much putting up horses I fancy..."

 We are looking to bet some +ev situations that might work in our favour in the long run. The fact that I said I don't particularly fancy SDC or RoR is irrelevant. They are probably +ev bets at this stage and we should do them. BigAdz doesn't really fancy them either but he gets it.

 Good work sir.

 I actually quite like Boston Bob, and I thank you for getting me thinking about it.

 No dithering Tikay. Win-only lucky 15 with Laddies. Get it done.

[tikay]

In case anyone was wondering if BigAdz was worth listening to, this statement should remove the doubt...

 "My rationale was not so much putting up horses I fancy..."

 We are looking to bet some +ev situations that might work in our favour in the long run. The fact that I said I don't particularly fancy SDC or RoR is irrelevant. They are probably +ev bets at this stage and we should do them. BigAdz doesn't really fancy them either but he gets it.

 Good work sir.

 I actually quite like Boston Bob, and I thank you for getting me thinking about it.

 No dithering Tikay. Win-only lucky 15 with Laddies. Get it done.

Ditherage Mode disengaged, but.........

Adzy said he did not want to bet the singles.

When you guys make the decision, I am primed to anti-dither.

[Chompy]

Afraid Posh are in for a thumping on Saturday v Naaaarwich.

Gayle is cup tied, Thorne is back at West Brom and, if fatty is suspended as expected, there's nobody left up front.

We were truly awful in fluking a 2-1 win over T'Barnsley yesterday and Thorne has been a big miss since the three wins over Cardiff, Bolton and Wolves.

I've had a chuckaway bet on Norwich scoring 4+ @ 10-1 with Quarrels.

Rec £10 Fred bonsai at the same price.

[TightEnd]

Afraid Posh are in for a thumping on Saturday v Naaaarwich.

Gayle is cup tied, Thorne is back at West Brom and, if fatty is suspended as expected, there's nobody left up front.

We were truly awful in fluking a 2-1 win over T'Barnsley yesterday and Thorne has been a big miss since the three wins over Cardiff, Bolton and Wolves.

I've had a chuckaway bet on Norwich scoring 4+ @ 10-1 with Quarrels.

Rec £10 Fred bonsai at the same price.

Norwich would be in my "not going down, not in Europe, should pick a strong team and try for a long cup run" category too!

[BigAdz]

In case anyone was wondering if BigAdz was worth listening to, this statement should remove the doubt...

 "My rationale was not so much putting up horses I fancy..."

 We are looking to bet some +ev situations that might work in our favour in the long run. The fact that I said I don't particularly fancy SDC or RoR is irrelevant. They are probably +ev bets at this stage and we should do them. BigAdz doesn't really fancy them either but he gets it.

 Good work sir.

 I actually quite like Boston Bob, and I thank you for getting me thinking about it.

 No dithering Tikay. Win-only lucky 15 with Laddies. Get it done.

Ditherage Mode disengaged, but.........

Adzy said he did not want to bet the singles.

When you guys make the decision, I am primed to anti-dither.

Tikay.

I got enough positve from The Man. I shall not quibble with the bet type. As The Man said. Get it done!

[tikay]

In case anyone was wondering if BigAdz was worth listening to, this statement should remove the doubt...

 "My rationale was not so much putting up horses I fancy..."

 We are looking to bet some +ev situations that might work in our favour in the long run. The fact that I said I don't particularly fancy SDC or RoR is irrelevant. They are probably +ev bets at this stage and we should do them. BigAdz doesn't really fancy them either but he gets it.

 Good work sir.

 I actually quite like Boston Bob, and I thank you for getting me thinking about it.

 No dithering Tikay. Win-only lucky 15 with Laddies. Get it done.

Ditherage Mode disengaged, but.........

Adzy said he did not want to bet the singles.

When you guys make the decision, I am primed to anti-dither.

Tikay.

I got enough positve from The Man. I shall not quibble with the bet type. As The Man said. Get it done!

OK, so it shall be. But WIN ONLY, not EW.

[tikay]

Further to post yesterday, now the dust has settled.

Having taken on board a few of the comments, my proposal would be a small yankee based around horses we are pretty certain this is their sole objective. I also seemed to have engineered a team with lots of "been there, done that" about them, always a good starting point. Finally, I think all these horses will start considerably shorter on the day, assuming we get traditional festival ground, having look like they are all being prepared with the festival as the sole aim

Rock on Ruby- Champion Hurdle 10-1
Sir Des Champs- Gold Cup 7-1
Boston Bob- RSA 10-1
Champion Court-Ryanair 10-1

These are the best mix and match at, surprisingly, Sadjokes.

Yes, I am sure we all have fancies in each of the races, but each have solid ew credentials, and as I have said, it is their sole target, and all have festival winning form bar Champion Court, who finished a worthy second to SDC last year, and at the distance of his intended race was going as well as aanything in the recent King George.


Happy to discuss alternatives, but recomend a smal £1 ew yankee to Fred, if no pushback on selections

All on, exactly as described, except we have a £2 Lucky Fifteen (total cost £30), WIN ONLY. Ladbrokes are the bookmaker of choice.

The bet is owned by BigAdz.

ON

Selection10/1 - Rock On Ruby

Event2013 Champion Hurdle Champion Hurdle

MarketAnte Post
  Selection7/1 - Sir Des Champs

EventCheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013

MarketAnte Post
  Selection10/1 - Boston Bob

EventRsa Chase Rsa Chase

MarketAnte Post
  Selection10/1 - Champion Court

EventRyanair Chase Ryanair Chase

MarketAnte Post
 Your bets (1) Lucky 15
15 lines at £2.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential Return: £31102.00
Time: 02/01/13 15:21
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000229

[Tal]

As a point of feedback, may I add a comment to BigAdz that I really like the way you've presented this bet. I'm not driven to pick those horses out for the races but it seems highly likely they'd run in those races if fit and the ground isn't a major issue, so I'm happy to listen to the wise heads who say the prices offer value ante post.

I need value explaining to me as when I walk into Ladbrokes, the door chimes with Greensleeves. This sort of thing really helps. I can do discussions over whether I think a horse will win but such discussions are best reserved for other, base threads. Fred is a refined gentleman of abstemious virtue.

[Chompy]

Afraid Posh are in for a thumping on Saturday v Naaaarwich.

Gayle is cup tied, Thorne is back at West Brom and, if fatty is suspended as expected, there's nobody left up front.

We were truly awful in fluking a 2-1 win over T'Barnsley yesterday and Thorne has been a big miss since the three wins over Cardiff, Bolton and Wolves.

I've had a chuckaway bet on Norwich scoring 4+ @ 10-1 with Quarrels.

Rec £10 Fred bonsai at the same price.

Norwich would be in my "not going down, not in Europe, should pick a strong team and try for a long cup run" category too!

No Gaby Zakuani either (on flight to Africa) while Nicky Ajose is back from his loan spell and may play up front. It goes from bad to worse...

[The Camel]

Afraid Posh are in for a thumping on Saturday v Naaaarwich.

Gayle is cup tied, Thorne is back at West Brom and, if fatty is suspended as expected, there's nobody left up front.

We were truly awful in fluking a 2-1 win over T'Barnsley yesterday and Thorne has been a big miss since the three wins over Cardiff, Bolton and Wolves.

I've had a chuckaway bet on Norwich scoring 4+ @ 10-1 with Quarrels.

Rec £10 Fred bonsai at the same price.

Norwich would be in my "not going down, not in Europe, should pick a strong team and try for a long cup run" category too!

No Gaby Zakuani either (on flight to Africa) while Nicky Ajose is back from his loan spell and may play up front. It goes from bad to worse...

Is Zakuani off the transfer list?

[edgascoigne]

Please could someone appraise the current state of the 49ers bet?

Cheers